On October 4th local time, Rashad Mohammed Alimi, Chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, delivered a televised address on Yemeni state television, officially announcing the launch of a large-scale military operation aimed at recapturing all areas recently controlled by the Houthi rebels. Alimi stated that after weeks of military mobilization, he had ordered the armed forces, security services, and allied military forces to begin implementing the operational plan, and the operation would continue "until the country is freed from the control of the terrorist militias." A Yemeni military spokesperson subsequently called on Houthi fighters to lay down their weapons, stating that government forces would focus on protecting civilian safety during the offensive. This announcement marks a full-scale escalation of the Yemeni civil war after several years of relative calm and will have a profound impact on Red Sea shipping, the global energy supply chain, and the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

I. The Yemeni government announces a large-scale military counter-offensive.

On October 4, Rashad Alimi, chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, announced the official launch of a large-scale military operation in a televised address on Yemeni state television from Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, with the goal of recapturing all areas recently controlled by the Houthi rebels. Alimi stated that after weeks of military mobilization, the Yemeni government armed forces, security services, and allied military forces had received orders to begin implementing the operational plan. He emphasized that the mission of this operation was "not only to reclaim lost territory, but also to restore the country," and promised amnesty to Houthi fighters who lay down their arms and cease fighting. Following Alimi's speech, a Yemeni government military spokesperson called on the Houthis to lay down their arms. It is reported that Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies plan a large-scale counter-offensive against the Houthis, with Saudi Arabia leading the air campaign and the Yemeni government forces responsible for ground operations; the number of troops involved could exceed 100,000. In terms of results, the Yemeni armed forces stated on October 4 that they had killed 700 Houthi fighters on multiple fronts in the past 24 hours and carried out 97 precision strikes against Houthi strongholds in the capital Sana'a, Saada province, and Taiz and Lahj provinces. Alimi himself is from the Taiz region, which holds a particularly strategic position.

II. Background of the Houthi Blitzkrieg

The Houthi rebels have controlled Yemen's capital Sana'a and large swathes of northwestern Yemen since 2014. A ceasefire agreement reached in 2022 was set to last until 2026, but due to the spillover effects of the US-Iran conflict, the Houthis launched a surprise lightning offensive last month. Within weeks, the group seized control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, approximately 150 kilometers of Red Sea coastline, captured the port city of Moha, and gained control of several key areas in Taiz province. The main highway connecting Taiz province with the southern port city of Aden has been seized by the Houthis, threatening the city with an effective blockade. The Wall Street Journal, citing UN reports and weapons experts, reported that Iran's Quds Force has been providing the Houthis with missile and drone components and training personnel since 2015, helping them establish indigenous weapons manufacturing capabilities. It is estimated that the Houthis currently have approximately 350,000 fighters, and their arsenal includes ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship weapons, and drones, heavily utilizing Iranian technology.

III. Houthi Retaliation Against Saudi Oil Facilities

Faced with a large-scale counter-offensive by the Yemeni government forces, the Houthi rebels adopted an offensive-defense strategy. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarreya issued a statement on October 4th, claiming that the group launched missile and drone attacks on two Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Khurais, causing serious fires. The statement also noted that Saudi Arabia had launched 60 airstrikes and missile attacks on Yemen in the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of airstrikes and missile attacks launched by Saudi Arabia since the escalation of the situation on September 3rd to 1410. The Saudi-led coalition denied the Houthi claims, with coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki stating that the Houthi claims were "misleading" and an attempt to divert attention from the heavy losses they suffered in Taiz. Saudi Aramco's CEO had previously stated that the Houthi attacks on oil facilities had not affected the company's production capacity; however, data from the Saudi Ministry of Energy in April showed that previous attacks had resulted in a combined reduction of approximately 600,000 barrels per day in Saudi oil production and a reduction of approximately 700,000 barrels per day in the volume of the East-West pipeline.

IV. The United States' role: Providing intelligence support but refusing direct combat.

According to Axios, Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman called US Defense Secretary Hegsays on October 1st to brief him on planned military operations and reiterated his request for US airstrikes against Houthi targets, but the request was rejected by the US. This marks the second time in recent weeks that the US has rejected such a request. Despite refusing direct military intervention, the US continues to provide Saudi Arabia with all assistance except for direct combat. More than 100 US military advisors have been deployed in Saudi Arabia to provide intelligence and target location support for the military operation against the Houthis. US officials stated that the US Central Command has significant concerns about launching airstrikes in Yemen, believing it would divert US attention from Iran.

V. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait: A vital artery of global trade

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern exit of the Red Sea, is a crucial waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea and Asia, carrying approximately 12% of the world's goods. With the Iran-Iraq War disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait's importance as an alternative route has become even more apparent. However, after the Houthi rebels seized control of Muha, the number of ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait plummeted to single digits. According to data from the Saudi industry magazine *Middle East Logistics*, only 6 ships passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 10th, compared to 30, 26, and 29 ships on previous days. Throughout September, a total of 1,151 international merchant ships passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, averaging approximately 39 ships per day. Marine insurance costs have surged. According to David Smith, head of maritime business at insurance brokerage McGill and Partners, war risk premiums for Red Sea vessels have risen from below 0.1% a month ago to 0.3% to 1% of the vessel's value, while war risk premiums for Middle East routes have risen even higher to 7.5% to 10% of the vessel's value. The significantly increased underwriting threshold has forced liner companies to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyages by 10 to 14 days and passively reducing effective shipping capacity.

VI. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen.

Yemen has been mired in conflict for years, with numerous armed groups and factions supported by competing regional and international actors. The ongoing military operation has further exacerbated the humanitarian situation in Yemen. The World Food Programme (WFP) warns that three-quarters of families in parts of Yemen are struggling with hunger. According to the Hunger Hotspots Report jointly released by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the WFP, an estimated 18.3 million people in Yemen will face "crisis" or more severe acute food insecurity by 2026, representing more than half of the country's population. Thousands have already been displaced in the frontline areas of Taiz province. WFP food aid in government-controlled areas of Yemen has been severely disrupted, with hundreds of thousands displaced and millions facing supply disruptions.

Editor's Summary

The large-scale military operation launched by the Yemeni government marks a new phase in the country's conflict. From a military perspective, the Saudi-led airstrikes and the Yemeni government forces' ground offensive have formed a coordinated operational pattern. While the mobilization of 100,000 troops is smaller than the Saudi-led coalition operation in 2015, the objective is clear—to regain control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, the Houthi rebels, honed by years of war, possess approximately 350,000 combatants and receive ongoing technical support from Iran; their defensive depth in areas like Taiz should not be underestimated. From a geopolitical perspective, this conflict has transcended the Yemeni civil war, becoming an extension of the US-Iran rivalry. Although the US refuses direct combat, it has deeply intervened through intelligence sharing and the deployment of military advisors, while simultaneously attempting to avoid becoming entangled in a new Middle East front. This contradictory stance reflects Washington's difficult balance between supporting allies and controlling the costs of intervention. From an economic perspective, the dramatic fluctuations in traffic volume in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have already had a substantial impact on global supply chains. War risk premiums have skyrocketed, and shipping companies have been forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, meaning that transportation costs from Asia to Europe will continue to rise. While the Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities have not yet caused large-scale production losses, the potential threat to Saudi Arabia's energy export capacity cannot be ignored. The course of the conflict in Yemen will directly impact the security landscape of the Red Sea route and global energy transportation costs; the international community needs to closely monitor the evolving situation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: What are the objectives of the Yemeni government's military operation? Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council Chairman Alimi announced the objective as the recapture of all areas recently controlled by the Houthis, particularly the Bab el-Mandeb Strait coastline and approximately 150 kilometers of Red Sea coastline seized by the Houthis last month. Alimi stated that this operation is "not only about recapturing lost territory, but also about restoring the nation." On a deeper level, Saudi Arabia hopes to restore normal navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and eliminate the Houthi threat to international shipping lanes in the Red Sea. Q2: What is the current military strength of the Houthis? According to a UN report cited by the Wall Street Journal, the Houthis are estimated to have approximately 350,000 fighters. Their arsenal includes ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship weapons, and drones, heavily reliant on technology and components supplied by Iran. Since 2015, the Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has supplied the Houthis with missile and drone components and sent instructors to train them in domestic manufacturing capabilities. The Houthis lack a traditional naval force and primarily rely on Iranian-designed missiles, unmanned explosive boats, and sea mines for coastal deployment. Q3: Why has the US refused to participate in airstrikes against the Houthis? The US has twice rejected Saudi Arabia's requests to participate in airstrikes. The main concern of the US is that the US Central Command believes that launching airstrikes in Yemen would divert US military attention from Iran and deplete key military equipment. While US President Trump wants to support ally Saudi Arabia, he also wants to avoid being drawn into a new front in the Middle East. However, the US is still providing intelligence and target data support and has deployed more than 100 military advisors to Saudi Arabia. Q4: Why is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait so important? The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and is a key global trade route, carrying approximately 12% of the world's goods. Its importance as an alternative route has become even more apparent after the war in Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. With the Houthis controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, they have gained new leverage over international shipping routes. The sharp drop in ship traffic and the surge in war risk premiums have forced many international shipping companies to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyages by 10 to 14 days and significantly increasing global shipping costs. Q5: What is the current humanitarian situation in Yemen? The humanitarian situation in Yemen is extremely dire. The UN Hunger Hotspots Report projects that 18.3 million people, more than half the national population, will face severe acute food insecurity by 2026. Thousands have already been displaced in frontline areas such as Taiz province, and the World Food Programme indicates that three-quarters of families in some parts of Yemen are struggling with hunger. The ongoing conflict has disrupted supply lines, severely limiting access to international humanitarian aid. Coupled with economic collapse, currency devaluation, and rising fuel prices, civilians face multiple survival crises. Question 6: What impact has this conflict had on the global energy market? Answer: The impact has been significant. With the Houthi rebels controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, two of the world's two major oil shipping chokepoints—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—are simultaneously under security threats. Saudi Arabia's alternative oil export routes via the Red Sea have been largely paralyzed, putting pressure on both its primary and backup energy export routes. Brent crude oil prices have risen sharply from pre-conflict levels, and although they have since fluctuated and fallen back, they remain above the $100 mark. Analysts warn that if passage through the two straits remains obstructed, global oil inventories could fall to near-current operating levels, potentially pushing oil prices higher. As of 09:44 Beijing time, Brent crude was trading at $101.65 per barrel.