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2025-09-15 19:01:35
[Global Asset Bubble Alert: Potential Crisis Beneath the False Boom] ⑴ The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recently warned that global stock market valuations have reached historically high levels, contrasting sharply with growing concerns in the bond market about government debt sustainability. Risk premiums on 30-year government bonds in major economies have risen significantly this year, indicating deepening market concerns about the fiscal outlook. ⑵ BIS analysis shows that highly leveraged investors, such as hedge funds, are increasingly absorbing government bond issuance, posing a potential amplification risk in the market. Even if debt levels do not exceed textbook "sustainable" levels, a crisis could erupt. Despite previous downgrades of the US credit rating and France's sovereign rating, global investors have shown no signs of a large-scale withdrawal from US assets. ⑶ The agency noted that given global investors' substantial holdings of US assets and the slow adjustment of asset allocation decisions and directives, any significant portfolio shifts would likely be gradual. Previously, US tariff rhetoric had a smaller impact on the market than expected, failing to trigger the anticipated turmoil. ⑷ In addition, a global household inflation expectations survey by the BIS showed that post-epidemic price increases have significantly pushed up household inflation expectations, especially in countries with larger price increases, which has raised concerns about the lasting impact of short-term inflation surges. However, it is worth noting that households generally believe that the inflation problem is not caused by the central bank and support the central bank's independence from the government. ⑸ At present, some economies, especially the labor market in the United States, are showing signs of cooling. If this trend continues, given that stock market valuations are close to historical peaks and corporate bond spreads are extremely narrow, the market reaction deserves close attention. The weakening correlation between the US dollar trend and interest rate differentials, as well as the strong rise in the stock market when the US dollar rebounded in July, show that the current financial conditions are abnormally loose, and their potential release will be a risk point that the market needs to be vigilant about in the future.
