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2025-09-15 21:01:12
[Double Whammy: The US Economy, Housing Market, and Job Market Under Pressure] ⑴ Latest data shows that both the US unemployment rate and weekly unemployment benefit applications have risen to their highest levels since 2021. For the first time, the number of unemployed people has exceeded the number of available jobs, indicating a rapidly deteriorating labor market. Meanwhile, housing market pressures remain severe, with average monthly mortgage payments nearly double pre-pandemic levels and overall affordability at a historically low level. According to Zillow data, the US housing shortage stands at 4.7 million units, restricting labor mobility, exacerbating regional unemployment, and hindering business hiring. ⑵ Severe housing affordability issues, coupled with low mortgage rates maintained during the pandemic, have reduced household mobility, which is particularly detrimental during the current labor market transition. Academic research indicates that an adequate supply of housing in major US job markets would result in a larger economy. In the long term, improved housing affordability is crucial to US economic growth. ⑶ Despite challenges, the widespread adoption of remote work has alleviated geographic constraints to some extent. Furthermore, the recent decline in long-term Treasury yields has pushed 30-year mortgage rates to an 11-month low. Rising inventory and weak demand are also putting pressure on housing prices. However, nearly 70% of the public are concerned about rising housing costs, and this negative sentiment could dampen consumption, especially given the uncertain job outlook. Refinery closures, leading to tight fuel supplies and higher prices, as well as higher operating costs from previous IT outages, are also weighing on corporate profits.
