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2025-09-15 21:59:43
[Canada's Housing Market Sees a "Stable Decline": A Sales Recovery Fails to Mask Falling Prices, Intensifying the Supply-Demand Gap in the Housing Market] (1) Existing home sales in Canada rose 1.1% month-over-month in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, but overall activity remains below the long-term historical average. (2) Sales fell nearly 2% year-over-year, indicating the market recovery remains weak. (3) The Canadian Real Estate Association's benchmark price index fell 0.1% in August, down 3.5% year-over-year, and now over 19% below its peak in March 2022. (4) Analysts believe the sales recovery may be partly due to price reductions, but also to buyers returning to the market after the turbulent spring, when Trump's tariff rhetoric sparked uncertainty in financial markets. (5) The sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 51.2% in August, the first decline in five months, indicating a more favorable market for buyers and room for negotiation. (6) The inventory of homes available for sale increased by 2.6% in August, indicating a relatively ample supply. ⑺Analysis indicates that sales have gradually recovered to the lower end of pre-pandemic normal levels, that inventories, while increasing, are not oversaturated, and that prices remain largely flat. ⑻However, Canada's overall economy is experiencing a tariff-induced downturn, with output falling 1.6% annualized in the second quarter and unemployment rising to 7.1%, the highest level in nine years (excluding the pandemic period). ⑼Housing affordability remains severe in Canada, with the proportion of after-tax income going toward housing-related bills reaching its highest point since 1990. ⑽Year-on-year price declines were particularly pronounced in Southern Ontario, a manufacturing hub particularly affected by trade uncertainty.
