Next week (November 3-7) will be a key trading week packed with data, including the release of manufacturing and service sector PMIs from multiple countries, central bank interest rate decisions, and the highly anticipated ADP employment data. This will be compounded by trade balance and consumer confidence data from core economies such as the US, China, and Europe, along with numerous statements from Federal Reserve officials.

The market needs to seize opportunities and avoid risks from data signals and policy expectations—every piece of data and event may affect the short-term trend of the stock market, foreign exchange market and commodity market. Investors need to sort out the logic in advance and prepare for the response.

On Monday (November 3), manufacturing PMIs from multiple countries were released simultaneously, marking the debut of leading valuation indicators.

Monday will see a "concentrated review" of global manufacturing PMIs, and the data will be particularly crucial in guiding stock market valuations in various countries.

First, Malaysia's October manufacturing PMI and China's October SPGI manufacturing PMI were released. The China SPGI manufacturing PMI, formerly known as the Caixin PMI, focuses on small and medium-sized private enterprises and is closer to the micro-level vitality of the market. Previously, China's official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0%, lower than the market expectation of 49.6%.

Subsequently, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, Brazil, the US, and Mexico successively released their respective manufacturing PMIs. As a leading indicator of stock market valuation, PMI performance directly impacts the stock market trends of various countries.

On Tuesday (November 4), the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision led to the simultaneous release of economic signals from Australia and Canada.

On Tuesday, market focus was on the Australian and North American economies.

In the morning, Australia will first release its weekly ANZ Consumer Confidence Index, followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision. The market generally expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.6%, primarily because Australia's third-quarter CPI performance far exceeded market expectations.

On the same day, Canada released its trade balance data: as Canada's largest export destination, US demand directly impacts Canada's trade performance, therefore this data is also seen as an "indirect signal" reflecting changes in US consumption.

Later in the evening, Federal Reserve official Daly will deliver a speech, and the Governor of the Bank of Canada will also speak at the same time.

On Wednesday (November 5), the services PMI reflected people's livelihoods, while the ADP nonfarm payrolls became a key anchor for the labor market.

Wednesday's data is closely linked to the commodities and employment markets. The routine release of US API and EIA crude oil inventory data will directly impact international oil price trends; it's crucial to monitor whether inventory increases or decreases reflect changes in the global crude oil supply and demand landscape.

Multiple countries have released their service sector PMIs in turn: China, the UK, Brazil, and the US have all published their respective service sector PMIs. Unlike the manufacturing PMI, which focuses on the production side, the service sector PMI directly reflects people's consumption experience and cost of living, and is more closely related to people's livelihoods.

Of particular note is that ADP will release the October ADP employment change (in thousands) data that day, also known as the "mini-nonfarm payrolls" data.

With the non-farm payroll data yet to be released, the importance of this ADP data is further highlighted. At the same time, ADP will begin releasing weekly data (ADP weekly forecast data will be released every Tuesday) starting from this date. This adjustment will provide the market with a more sensitive means of observing the US labor market.

Thursday (November 6th) will see trade balance and industrial data provide clues for the Bank of England's policy decision.

Thursday's data will focus on "global economic conditions" and "European monetary policy expectations." In the morning, Australia will release its September trade balance: as a typical commodity-exporting country, Australia's trade balance is usually a leading indicator of global economic conditions.

Subsequently, the Eurozone released year-on-year and month-on-month retail sales data, while Germany simultaneously released annualized industrial output data: both of these data are important reference indicators for the European Central Bank in formulating monetary policy.

In the evening, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision: the market currently expects it to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%, but Goldman Sachs believes the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to the lower-than-expected rise in the UK's September CPI.

Trade data closed on Friday (November 7), and five FOMC voting members set the tone for the Federal Reserve's policy.

Friday's trading session concluded with key trade data and Federal Reserve policy guidance.

In the morning, China released its October trade balance – a leading indicator of the profitability of Chinese export companies. Subsequently, Germany and France also released their own export data, reflecting changes in the dependence of core Eurozone countries on external demand.

In the afternoon, the University of Michigan released its November Consumer Confidence Index. The data will reflect the American public's expectations for the economic outlook, and thus affect market judgments on US consumption.

Friday's main event will take place in the evening: five voting members of the US FOMC will deliver speeches, and their statements on inflation trends, the labor market, and the December and future interest rate decisions will provide key policy guidance for the market, directly affecting the short-term trends of the US dollar index and gold.

Risk warning: Data discrepancies, policy shifts, and geopolitical variables warrant close attention.

Besides key data and central bank events, the market needs to be wary of three potential risks next week to avoid losses due to unexpected changes.

Data divergence and unexpected risks: The manufacturing and service sector PMIs of many countries may diverge, or the ADP employment data may deviate significantly from subsequent labor market signals (such as initial jobless claims). Such contradictory signals may cause repeated fluctuations in market expectations, leading to sharp short-term fluctuations in the stock and foreign exchange markets.

While the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain interest rates, the higher-than-expected CPI in the third quarter may prompt it to release a "hawkish" signal of stability, unexpectedly mentioning the possibility of a rate hike; if the Bank of England hints at an earlier rate cut in its decision due to lower-than-expected CPI, it could trigger a plunge in the pound; if the speeches of the five voting members of the Federal Reserve show a "hawkish-dovey divide," it will exacerbate market confusion about the December decision, thereby disrupting the trend of the US dollar and gold.

Geopolitical and liquidity variables: If the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalate, it may trigger a rise in risk aversion, pushing up safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, and suppressing global risk assets; at the same time, if the EIA crude oil inventory shows an unexpected increase or decrease, it may cause single-day fluctuations in international oil prices.