Thursday, December 11th. The US dollar index is currently trading above 98.30 in the North American session. The newly released US initial jobless claims and trade account data are the focus; the former indicates short-term volatility in the labor market, while the latter reveals positive signs of improvement in the external sector. These data collectively form an important part of the current dollar pricing logic and have prompted traders to reassess whether the dollar has the basis for further upward movement.



The latest U.S. initial jobless claims totaled 236,000, higher than the market expectation of 220,000 and a significant rebound from the previous week's 192,000. This rebound is widely interpreted as a correction to the unusually low level of the previous week, where the data was temporarily underestimated due to seasonal adjustment model distortion caused by the Thanksgiving holiday. Despite the weekly increase, continuing jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 1.838 million, a new low since mid-April, and far below the expected 1.95 million. This divergence reflects the resilience of the labor market's internal structure, with the pace of workers leaving the unemployment system not slowing down. Although the weekly data is subject to significant technical fluctuations, the overall trend shows that the U.S. job market has not yet shown signs of systemic easing. Meanwhile, the trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, the lowest level since June 2020, significantly better than the expected $63.3 billion. Exports rose 3% month-on-month to $289.3 billion, a five-month high, mainly driven by strong growth in exports of non-monetary gold and pharmaceutical preparations; imports rose only slightly by 0.6% to $342.1 billion, with a significant slowdown in growth. This combination suggests that the drag on US economic growth from external demand is easing, current account pressures are easing, and this provides potential support for the dollar.

It's worth noting that although the monthly trade situation improved significantly, the cumulative trade deficit for the first nine months of this year widened by $112.6 billion year-on-year, an increase of 17.2%, indicating that import growth is still outpacing export growth, and the relatively strong domestic demand has not fundamentally changed. This has somewhat dampened the optimism brought about by the trade data. Furthermore, the significant increase in pharmaceutical preparations and non-monetary gold in the import structure partly reflects changes in global supply chain restructuring and safe-haven asset allocation, rather than purely a cooling of consumer demand. Therefore, whether this data can continue to improve remains to be seen. From the perspective of exchange rate reaction, the US dollar index did not show a strong breakthrough after the data release, but instead maintained a narrow range of fluctuation, indicating that the market is becoming more cautious about the current fundamentals of the US economy. Investors are more concerned about whether the relative attractiveness of dollar assets will weaken in the coming quarters as other global economies gradually stabilize.

From a 5-minute candlestick chart perspective, the US dollar index has been slowly declining from a high of around 98.6281, briefly rebounding around 98.5169 before falling back again, just hitting a new low of 98.3735. Currently, the price remains in a weak, low-level range. The MACD indicator is running below the zero line, with both DIFF and DEA values negative. The histogram has narrowed slightly after its previous expansion, indicating that while bears are in control, the downward momentum has somewhat weakened. The RSI remains around 30, in the oversold zone, suggesting that short-term selling pressure has been largely released, and the price is less sensitive to new negative news. The small-bodied candlestick with a lower shadow after a long bearish candle at the end indicates some hedging force at the lows, but a clear reversal structure has not yet formed. The short-term outlook remains weak and volatile. Whether the price can recover from the rapid decline within the purple zone will be a crucial signal for observing the extent of sentiment recovery.



In summary, the underlying logic for the current dollar's trajectory is shifting. Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate hikes fueled a stronger dollar, but interest rates are now at a limiting level, with limited room for further increases. Market focus is gradually shifting from "interest rate differentials" to "growth differentials" and "external balance." If the narrowing of the US trade deficit continues, it will strengthen the dollar's intrinsic value; while the labor market, though experiencing short-term disturbances, remains within a healthy range, providing a foundation for a soft landing for consumption and the economy.

In the coming weeks, the market will be closely watching upcoming retail sales figures, PCE inflation data, and speeches by Federal Reserve officials to determine whether monetary policy has truly entered a wait-and-see phase. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations may also cause temporary disturbances to exchange rate movements.