International crude oil futures continued to fall, trading around $56.67 per barrel in Asian trading on Tuesday, with the core market logic still focused on expectations of oversupply.

On the one hand, traders generally expect inventories to rise in the United States and major global consumption regions, weakening support for oil prices; on the other hand, ongoing efforts to ease tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict are gradually diminishing the previous geopolitical risk premium.

With no significant improvement in demand as expected, oil prices are more driven by changes in the supply side, and short-term sentiment is bearish.

OPEC and IEA's assessments are converging, but the conclusions remain cautious. OPEC's latest report maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth, but slightly raises its supply increase forecast for non-OPEC oil-producing countries, while signaling a possible halt to production increases in early 2026.

The IEA pointed out that the global oil surplus has narrowed compared to previous expectations due to the decline in actual OPEC+ production, but the overall loose supply situation has not fundamentally changed, and the market still faces "structural supply pressure".

The consensus among the two institutions is that short-term oil market rebalancing will be difficult. The EU's new round of sanctions against key figures in Russian oil trade aims to crack down on clandestine energy trading networks; the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker indicates an escalation of pressure on the country.

However, in terms of real-world impact, such events primarily disrupt trade routes and sentiment, with limited direct changes to the global supply and demand structure. Meanwhile, discussions about Venezuela are becoming more rational; even with an improved political environment, aging oil and gas infrastructure means that production recovery will be a long-term process.

From a daily chart perspective, oil prices remain within a medium-term downtrend channel, with insufficient upward momentum. The first resistance level to watch is the previous rebound high of $57.80 per barrel; failure to break through this level will likely hinder a reversal of the downtrend. On the downside, support is seen at the previous low of $56.00; a break below this level with significant volume could trigger a new round of technical selling.

Momentum indicators remain in weak territory, indicating a lack of clear buying power in the market. Overall, technical and fundamental factors are converging, suggesting that oil prices will likely remain weak in the short term.

Editor's Note:

The main themes in the current energy market are quite clear: the crude oil market faces dual pressures from ample supply and declining risk premiums, while power and energy infrastructure have become relatively certain areas of focus for investment. In the short term, caution is warranted regarding the risk of repeated downward movements in oil prices due to weak fundamentals; furthermore, a break below the current trading range could lead to accelerated downward movement. Continued monitoring of inventory data is crucial.