The January 2026 nonfarm payrolls report, originally scheduled for release in early February, was postponed due to the partial shutdown of the federal government and is now scheduled for release on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.



This release carries a particularly high risk because it includes annual benchmark revisions that will recalibrate the entire trend for 2025. The market is currently debating whether the labor market is in a stable state of "low hiring, low laying off" or in a deeper, more deeply entrenched slowdown.

I. Data worth noting:

1. Primary nonfarm payroll forecast: Consensus estimates over 70,000 new jobs, which, while seemingly weak compared to historical averages, reflects a trend of “stabilizing” after the volatility at the end of 2025.

2. Threshold for a March rate cut: The Federal Reserve stabilized interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% in January. For a March rate cut to be a basic expectation, the non-farm payroll report may need to show a significant drop below 50,000 or an unemployment rate jump to above 4.6%.

3. Benchmark Revision: Closely monitor revisions to the 2025 data. If there are significant downward revisions in the first few months, it suggests that interest rates may have been too high for too long, increasing the urgency for a rate cut in March.

People are increasingly expecting the benchmark revision to be lowered by about 60,000 to 70,000.

II. Potential Impact on the US Dollar Index
1. Bullish Scenario (Stronger Data): Data exceeding 120,000 could trigger a "sharp short-covering rally." As the market rules out the possibility of a March rate cut and converges with the Fed's "one-time rate cut" target in 2026, the dollar index could rebound to the 99.30 (200-day SMA) area.

2. Bearish Scenario (Weak Data): Data below 50,000 or negative growth would validate the dovish camp. This could push the dollar index above its current support level to 97.60, making a Fed rate cut in March almost a certainty.

Third, the transition to the Warsh era is further complicated by the impending change in the Federal Reserve leadership. With Warsh nominated to succeed Powell, the market is assessing a shift towards a more "hawkish but pragmatic" Fed. Warsh is expected to prioritize price stability while remaining open to a strategy of "large-scale, aggressive supply shocks," consistent with the current administration's deregulation and tax cut agenda.

This political context complicates the Federal Reserve's response function. If the committee believes that government fiscal stimulus will quickly boost economic growth and potentially reignite inflation later this year, they may be reluctant to cut interest rates significantly.