Live Updates > Live Update Details
2026-02-13 18:31:46
[Russia's Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates to 15.5%, Inflation Target Anchored to 2026] ⑴ The Central Bank of Russia announced on Friday that it would cut its key interest rate from 16% to 15.5%, in line with market expectations. In its statement, the bank said that, based on forecasts, under the current monetary policy stance, the annual inflation rate will fall to 4.5-5.5% in 2026. ⑵ This means that monetary conditions will remain tight, with core inflation expected to be close to 4% in the second half of 2026, and annual inflation stabilizing at the target level from 2027 onwards. ⑶ The baseline scenario assumes an average key interest rate between 13.5% and 14.5% in 2026. The Central Bank of Russia noted that the economy is continuing to return to a balanced growth path, but its assessment suggests that underlying indicators of current price growth have not changed significantly. ⑷ From a policy perspective, this rate cut is a preventative adjustment based on expectations of slowing inflation, but the statement emphasizes that the inflation base is not yet solid, and the pace of subsequent easing depends on the sustainability of the slowdown. (5) In the future, attention should be paid to the transmission of ruble exchange rate changes to import prices, and whether residents' inflation expectations can follow the decline in policy interest rates. These two factors will determine whether the central bank has the conditions to continue cutting interest rates at the next meeting.
