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2026-02-13 19:12:02
[Government Bond Yield Matrix: US, UK, and Australia Lead, Japan, Germany, and Europe Lag Behind] ⑴ As of Friday, global 10-year benchmark government bond yields showed significant divergence. The US yield was 4.121%, followed by the UK at 4.459% and Australia at 4.760%, ranking at the top; Germany at 2.776%, France at 3.365%, and Italy at 3.381%, placing them in the middle; Japan at 2.213% was at the bottom. ⑵ Using Germany as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +198.3bp, UK +168.3bp, US +134.5bp; Japan -56.3bp, Denmark -15.1bp, and Sweden -10.3bp. ⑶ Using the US as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +63.9bp, UK +33.8bp; other major economies all had negative spreads, with Japan -190.8bp, Denmark -149.6bp, Sweden -144.8bp, and Germany -134.5bp. (4) The 2-year yield also showed significant divergence. The US yield was 3.481%, the UK 3.614%, and Australia 4.233%; Germany 2.068%, France 2.182%, Italy 2.119%; and Japan 1.279%. (5) Using Germany as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +216.5bp, UK +154.7bp, US +141.4bp; Japan -78.9bp, Denmark -18.0bp, and Sweden -17.7bp. (6) Using the US as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +75.2bp, UK +13.3bp; Canada -99.9bp, and other major economies all above -130bp, with Japan -220.2bp, Denmark -159.3bp, and Sweden -159.0bp. (7) From the yield matrix, the UK, US, and Australia are at high interest rates, reflecting the market's continued pricing in inflation and policy tightening; while the Eurozone and Japan are at relatively low rates, reflecting expectations of easing and weak economies. The interest rate differential structure shows that US dollar assets still have a significant premium relative to Eurozone and Japan, while the British pound and Australian dollar are becoming new choices for high-yield currencies. (8) In the future, attention should be paid to the divergence in the policy paths of central banks around the world. If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for longer, the interest rate differential advantage of US Treasury bonds relative to Eurozone and Japan may further widen; conversely, if Eurozone and Japan unexpectedly change course, the current interest rate differential pattern will face reshaping.
