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[US January CPI Rises 0.2% Month-on-Month, Below Expectations; Core CPI Rises Slightly] ⑴ The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the January CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, slightly lower than the 0.3% increase in December and economists' expectations of 0.3%. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in December. ⑵ In terms of year-on-year data, the CPI rose 2.4%, a slowdown from 2.7% in December, mainly due to the high base effect from last year; the core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year, lower than 2.6% in December. ⑶ The January report included, for the first time, an update to the seasonal adjustment factor reflecting price changes in 2025. Economists pointed out that the core CPI data in January often exceeds expectations because the Bureau of Labor Statistics model fails to fully account for the one-off price increases at the beginning of the year. This month's increase may reflect both this beginning-of-year effect and the transmission effect of Trump's broad tariffs. ⑷ Despite the slowing inflation, a stabilizing labor market may allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for some time. Economists predict that inflation may rebound temporarily this year due to the transmission of import tariffs and the depreciation of the US dollar last year. (5) From a policy perspective, the January CPI data provides the Federal Reserve with more room to maneuver: inflation is slowing but core inflation is rising slightly month-on-month, coupled with strong employment, reducing the urgency for a rate cut in the short term. However, tariffs and exchange rate factors may reignite inflationary pressures in the second half of the year. (6) The market needs to pay attention to the evolution of inflation data in the coming months, especially whether the core services and goods sub-categories will rise due to the transmission of tariffs, which will determine the timing of the Federal Reserve's first rate cut.