Silver Forecast: Cooling CPI Sparks Hopes for Silver Rebound
2026-02-14 00:13:26
On Friday (February 13), spot silver (XAG/USD) strengthened during the US trading session as the US Consumer Price Index rose less than expected. This data not only gave the market hope that stubborn inflation was finally beginning to ease, but also opened up room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June.
A U.S. government report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous month's 2.7%. More importantly, this figure is consistent with the level seen in the month following Trump's announcement of his massive tariff plan in April 2025. This surprised many traders, who had previously believed that the lagged effects of high tariffs on inflation would take months to materialize.
Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policies remains the core issue.
Putting aside short-term noise, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve remain the market's main concern.
One side believes that Warsh's close relationship with the dovish Trump may push for interest rate cuts; the other side believes that if employment and inflation data are out of sync, Warsh may turn hawkish.
In my opinion, the timing of the Fed's next rate cut will largely depend on whether regional Fed presidents, who are hawkish and determined to fight inflation, will turn dovish as inflation continues to weaken.
After the bubble burst, trading sentiment became more cautious.
After the silver speculation bubble burst at the end of last month, traders became noticeably more conservative in their operations.
The increase in margin requirements and high market volatility have kept many small and medium-sized investors out of the market, while large investors have taken the opportunity to gradually accumulate shares, keeping silver prices fluctuating within a range.
Meanwhile, traders are also questioning whether the "supply and demand gap logic" that supported silver prices throughout 2025 and part of 2026 will still dominate the market. In addition, the current gold-silver ratio, which is clearly more favorable to gold, is also a major focus of the market.
The sharp drop in tech stocks may trigger forced liquidation of silver positions.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
In addition, the weakening of the US stock market and the sharp decline in the technology sector may force investors to sell silver to meet margin calls in the stock market, further suppressing silver prices.
Overall, aside from the normal consolidation after a drop of over 30%, silver traders are now paying more attention to external events and economic data, and their buying decisions are more rational and restrained than when they were aggressively chasing the rally two weeks ago.
Market Outlook: Continued range-bound trading
Silver is expected to continue its consolidation phase until the Federal Reserve clarifies its policy direction.
A U.S. government report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous month's 2.7%. More importantly, this figure is consistent with the level seen in the month following Trump's announcement of his massive tariff plan in April 2025. This surprised many traders, who had previously believed that the lagged effects of high tariffs on inflation would take months to materialize.
Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policies remains the core issue.
Putting aside short-term noise, the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve remain the market's main concern.
One side believes that Warsh's close relationship with the dovish Trump may push for interest rate cuts; the other side believes that if employment and inflation data are out of sync, Warsh may turn hawkish.
In my opinion, the timing of the Fed's next rate cut will largely depend on whether regional Fed presidents, who are hawkish and determined to fight inflation, will turn dovish as inflation continues to weaken.
After the bubble burst, trading sentiment became more cautious.
After the silver speculation bubble burst at the end of last month, traders became noticeably more conservative in their operations.
The increase in margin requirements and high market volatility have kept many small and medium-sized investors out of the market, while large investors have taken the opportunity to gradually accumulate shares, keeping silver prices fluctuating within a range.
Meanwhile, traders are also questioning whether the "supply and demand gap logic" that supported silver prices throughout 2025 and part of 2026 will still dominate the market. In addition, the current gold-silver ratio, which is clearly more favorable to gold, is also a major focus of the market.
The sharp drop in tech stocks may trigger forced liquidation of silver positions.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
In addition, the weakening of the US stock market and the sharp decline in the technology sector may force investors to sell silver to meet margin calls in the stock market, further suppressing silver prices.
Overall, aside from the normal consolidation after a drop of over 30%, silver traders are now paying more attention to external events and economic data, and their buying decisions are more rational and restrained than when they were aggressively chasing the rally two weeks ago.
Market Outlook: Continued range-bound trading
Silver is expected to continue its consolidation phase until the Federal Reserve clarifies its policy direction.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
