On Thursday (February 19), spot gold traded higher in the European session, hovering around $5,020 per ounce, up about 0.85% on the day, with geopolitical risks continuing to provide support for gold. However, against the backdrop of a slightly hawkish tone in the minutes of the Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting, the US dollar held onto its strong gains, stabilizing at a more than one-week high of 97.66, which became a key factor weighing on non-interest-bearing gold.



In fact, the meeting minutes revealed that policymakers remained deeply divided on the necessity and timing of further interest rate cuts. Several Federal Reserve officials stated that further rate cuts might be reasonable if inflation fell as expected, while others warned that premature easing could jeopardize the 2% inflation target. This followed strong U.S. data, showing that January industrial production rose more than expected, with manufacturing output posting its largest increase in 11 months, which provided support for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.

This outlook has provided a considerable boost to the US dollar; however, the market currently still expects the Federal Reserve to implement three 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Furthermore, threats to the Fed's independence limit the dollar's upside and provide some support for gold. This, coupled with geopolitical tensions, provides a tailwind for safe-haven gold, and bearish traders should remain cautious, waiting for some follow-through selling before positioning themselves for further declines.

The third round of US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia concluded in Geneva on Wednesday without any major breakthroughs. This highlights the substantial differences that remain between the two sides over the status of the Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, reports indicate that the US military may launch an attack on Iran as early as this weekend. Although US President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision on whether to authorize armed conflict, this perpetuates geopolitical risks and could provide support for safe-haven gold.

Traders are currently focused on Thursday's U.S. economic calendar—including weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and pending home sales data. Later in the day, speeches by influential FOMC members will also influence the dollar. However, the focus will remain firmly on Friday's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which will provide clues about the Fed's interest rate path, thus driving the dollar and providing new momentum for gold prices.

Technical Outlook: Gold is poised to continue rising.

Gold prices currently appear to have stabilized above the 100-hour moving average (MA, 4960.35), providing bullish support. Furthermore, the 100-hour moving average is turning upwards, highlighting continued bullish momentum.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, indicating that the upward momentum is strengthening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, suggesting that gold prices are likely to continue rising.

On the downside, the 100-hour moving average is an immediate dynamic support level. As long as gold prices trade above it, it will continue to support the intraday structure. Conversely, if the price closes below this moving average, the initiative will be handed back to the sellers, and there may be a risk of a deeper pullback.



(Spot gold hourly chart, source: EasyForex)

At 15:00 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5019.14 per ounce.