BMO's chief analyst: The gold bull market has begun, and gold prices will soar to $6,500 in 2026!
2026-02-20 08:58:13
As 2026 begins, the global precious metals market is undergoing a dramatic reshuffle. Amidst shifting geopolitical tensions, the long-term upward trend in gold has not only been reinforced but has also shifted significantly from the baseline scenario to a bull market scenario; meanwhile, the silver market, after a period of speculative frenzy, is quietly showing signs of weakening. Helen Amos, Managing Director and Commodity Analyst at BMO Equity Research, systematically disclosed this latest assessment in an exclusive interview with BNN Bloomberg, providing clear and insightful guidance for global investors.
Amos pointed out that despite recent significant fluctuations in gold prices, market enthusiasm for precious metals and the mining sector has not waned. Investors remain strongly inclined towards gold and copper, which have become BMO's top commodity allocation targets this year. She emphasized, "There are currently too many positive factors stacking up." These include the strong growth momentum of emerging market economies, the deepening trend of global deglobalization, and the acceleration of the de-dollarization process—these structural changes collectively provide solid support for precious metals.
Meanwhile, the interest of both retail and institutional investors has shown remarkable resilience. Amos observed that whenever gold prices experience a brief pullback, they almost always quickly establish a solid bottom within a short period. This "buy on pullback" market behavior fully demonstrates investors' long-term confidence in gold. It is the combined effect of these multi-dimensional driving factors that keeps the gold market consistently vibrant.
BMO's highest gold price forecast is particularly noteworthy. According to its regression model, gold prices are expected to approach $6,500 per ounce by the end of 2026, and further climb to $8,600 per ounce by the end of 2027. The core logic behind this forecast is that if investment demand continues the strong momentum of the first year of Trump's second term over the next two years, coupled with sustained high levels of central bank gold purchases and continued inflows into ETFs, then gold prices will easily break through historical highs.
Amos explained in detail that the model is primarily based on four key variables: global central bank gold purchases, changes in ETF holdings, the US dollar index, and the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Although the model struggles to keep pace with actual gold price fluctuations, these four factors still adequately explain its long-term performance. She specifically mentioned that even extrapolating from only slightly above-historical levels of central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows would be enough to push gold prices to around $6,500, "which clearly demonstrates that the current market environment makes it extremely easy for gold to rise."
It's worth noting that BMO's initial baseline scenario predicted a decline in gold prices over the coming months. However, Amore admitted that this scenario was based on data from December 2025, and by January 2026, the global geopolitical situation had drastically changed. Tensions in Venezuela, controversies surrounding Greenland, and market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence all erupted within a few weeks, causing the risk balance to tilt significantly towards a bullish scenario.
“The original baseline scenario is no longer applicable,” Amos stated bluntly. “All risks have shifted to the upside.” This assessment implies that the downside potential for gold prices is limited in the short term, while the upside potential has been further amplified.
Compared to her optimistic outlook on gold, Amos is noticeably more cautious about silver. She points out that silver is still primarily driven by industrial properties, rather than being a purely safe-haven asset. Currently, the physical market supply and demand balance for silver is showing signs of easing, mainly due to factors including global solar installations having already peaked and excessive speculative activity among retail investors between December 2025 and January 2026.
“A large amount of options trading and speculative funds once drove up silver prices, but these forces are now rapidly receding,” Amos analyzed. “After prices fell back to a reasonable range, the previous sharp fluctuations also damaged silver’s traditional reputation as a safe-haven asset.” Although she said she would continue to monitor any new developments that might change the investment attributes of silver, the physical market has now largely passed its most intense period, and investors should remain on the sidelines.
In summary, BMO's chief analyst Helen Amos's latest view paints a starkly contrasting picture of the precious metals market in 2026: gold is poised for a historic bull market, fueled by multiple structural positive factors and geopolitical catalysts; while silver faces short-term downward pressure due to slowing industrial demand and a receding speculative frenzy.
For investors, this means maintaining a positive allocation to gold and copper while adopting a more cautious approach to silver. While future market trends remain uncertain, Amos's core message is clear and firm: in the current environment, the long-term upward trend for gold has significantly strengthened, while silver needs to wait for clearer signals of supply and demand improvement. Global capital is re-evaluating precious metal allocations with unprecedented力度 (intensity/effort), and 2026 may well be a bumper year for gold.
At 08:56 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $5002.79 per ounce.
Enthusiasm for gold investment remains high, driven by a combination of strong factors.
Amos pointed out that despite recent significant fluctuations in gold prices, market enthusiasm for precious metals and the mining sector has not waned. Investors remain strongly inclined towards gold and copper, which have become BMO's top commodity allocation targets this year. She emphasized, "There are currently too many positive factors stacking up." These include the strong growth momentum of emerging market economies, the deepening trend of global deglobalization, and the acceleration of the de-dollarization process—these structural changes collectively provide solid support for precious metals.
Meanwhile, the interest of both retail and institutional investors has shown remarkable resilience. Amos observed that whenever gold prices experience a brief pullback, they almost always quickly establish a solid bottom within a short period. This "buy on pullback" market behavior fully demonstrates investors' long-term confidence in gold. It is the combined effect of these multi-dimensional driving factors that keeps the gold market consistently vibrant.
BMO's in-depth analysis of the bullish scenario: Gold prices are expected to approach $6,500 and continue to rise.
BMO's highest gold price forecast is particularly noteworthy. According to its regression model, gold prices are expected to approach $6,500 per ounce by the end of 2026, and further climb to $8,600 per ounce by the end of 2027. The core logic behind this forecast is that if investment demand continues the strong momentum of the first year of Trump's second term over the next two years, coupled with sustained high levels of central bank gold purchases and continued inflows into ETFs, then gold prices will easily break through historical highs.
Amos explained in detail that the model is primarily based on four key variables: global central bank gold purchases, changes in ETF holdings, the US dollar index, and the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Although the model struggles to keep pace with actual gold price fluctuations, these four factors still adequately explain its long-term performance. She specifically mentioned that even extrapolating from only slightly above-historical levels of central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows would be enough to push gold prices to around $6,500, "which clearly demonstrates that the current market environment makes it extremely easy for gold to rise."
Geopolitical risks have escalated sharply, and the baseline scenario has been significantly revised upwards.
It's worth noting that BMO's initial baseline scenario predicted a decline in gold prices over the coming months. However, Amore admitted that this scenario was based on data from December 2025, and by January 2026, the global geopolitical situation had drastically changed. Tensions in Venezuela, controversies surrounding Greenland, and market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence all erupted within a few weeks, causing the risk balance to tilt significantly towards a bullish scenario.
“The original baseline scenario is no longer applicable,” Amos stated bluntly. “All risks have shifted to the upside.” This assessment implies that the downside potential for gold prices is limited in the short term, while the upside potential has been further amplified.
The silver market requires a high degree of caution, as the physical balance is quietly loosening.
Compared to her optimistic outlook on gold, Amos is noticeably more cautious about silver. She points out that silver is still primarily driven by industrial properties, rather than being a purely safe-haven asset. Currently, the physical market supply and demand balance for silver is showing signs of easing, mainly due to factors including global solar installations having already peaked and excessive speculative activity among retail investors between December 2025 and January 2026.
“A large amount of options trading and speculative funds once drove up silver prices, but these forces are now rapidly receding,” Amos analyzed. “After prices fell back to a reasonable range, the previous sharp fluctuations also damaged silver’s traditional reputation as a safe-haven asset.” Although she said she would continue to monitor any new developments that might change the investment attributes of silver, the physical market has now largely passed its most intense period, and investors should remain on the sidelines.
In summary: The window for a gold bull market has opened; silver needs to wait for the right opportunity.
In summary, BMO's chief analyst Helen Amos's latest view paints a starkly contrasting picture of the precious metals market in 2026: gold is poised for a historic bull market, fueled by multiple structural positive factors and geopolitical catalysts; while silver faces short-term downward pressure due to slowing industrial demand and a receding speculative frenzy.
For investors, this means maintaining a positive allocation to gold and copper while adopting a more cautious approach to silver. While future market trends remain uncertain, Amos's core message is clear and firm: in the current environment, the long-term upward trend for gold has significantly strengthened, while silver needs to wait for clearer signals of supply and demand improvement. Global capital is re-evaluating precious metal allocations with unprecedented力度 (intensity/effort), and 2026 may well be a bumper year for gold.
At 08:56 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $5002.79 per ounce.
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