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[Australian Inflation Data to Test Rate Hike Expectations, Japan's Policy Path Becoming Clearer] ⑴ Australia's first-quarter inflation data will be released this Wednesday, becoming a key indicator to verify market expectations for rate hikes. Investors have already bet on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising rates at least once more this year, given its strong economy and sticky inflation. An upward surprise in the data would further solidify expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike to 4.10% in May. ⑵ The RBA became the only G10 central bank besides Japan to tighten policy this month, continuing to combat inflationary pressures in a supply-tight economy. This contrasts Australia's interest rate path with other major economies and provides structural support for the Australian dollar. ⑶ Japan's inflation data is also worth watching, but its impact will be different. Tokyo's CPI will be released on Friday, and analysts believe this data is unlikely to substantially change the Bank of Japan's policy outlook. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's historic election victory cleared political obstacles for further tightening by the central bank. ⑷ The market has already priced in two rate hikes by the Bank of Japan before December. This means that after a prolonged period of negative interest rates, Japan's monetary policy normalization process is accelerating, and the divergence between Japan and other major central banks globally is gradually narrowing. (5) Although both Australia and Japan are in a tightening cycle, their driving logics differ. Australia is more constrained by the continued escalation of domestic supply-demand imbalances, while Japan's policymakers have gained more room to maneuver after the political landscape became clearer. The actual performance of inflation data in both countries will determine the market's recalibration of the subsequent pace of interest rate hikes.