Super Week is Coming: A Global Market Outlook Amid Data Intensity, Policy Maneuvering, and Contract Rollover
2026-02-20 17:31:13
Next week (February 21-27), global markets will experience a super trading week with a flurry of data releases, central bank policy announcements, and crude oil contract rollovers. From inflation data and economic indicators to key monetary policy signals, from MLF rollovers and LPR quotes to press conferences by international giants, every event could trigger significant market volatility. Investors need to closely monitor these key events and data, and prepare for risk hedging and strategic positioning in advance.
On Saturday (February 21), the CFTC released its weekly Commitment of Traders report. Dallas Fed President Logan, a 2026 FOMC voting member, delivered a speech, which he described as a data-dependent hawk.
Meanwhile, due to the rollover of contracts, the NYMEX New York crude oil March futures contract completed its last trading session on the exchange at 3:30 AM on February 21st, and its last trading session on the electronic trading platform at 6:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's rollover announcements to manage your risks.
In addition, some trading platforms' WTI crude oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than NYMEX's official expiration date, which may result in forced liquidation for individual traders. Please be aware of this.
On Monday (February 23), Germany released its February IFO Business Climate Index, and the United States released its December factory orders data and revised durable goods orders data. Federal Reserve Governor Waller also delivered a speech.
On Tuesday (February 24), China announced its 1-year and 5-year LPR quotes, US President Trump delivered his State of the Union address, which serves as a triple pricing window for policy, personnel, and geopolitics, the US released its February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and Apple held its 2026 shareholder meeting.
On Wednesday (February 25), 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 400 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos will mature. The US will release EIA and API crude oil inventory data, Australia will release its January CPI data, and the Eurozone will release its January harmonized CPI data.
Germany released its March GfK consumer confidence index and fourth-quarter GDP. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Collins's remarks were cautiously hawkish, while FOMC member Barkin's remarks were data-dependent hawkish.
On Thursday (February 26), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak, the Eurozone will release its industrial sentiment index and economic sentiment index, and the United States will release its initial and continuing jobless claims for the week.
The Bank of Japan's Financial Markets Bureau held a "Market Operations Meeting," and Huawei will hold an innovative product launch event themed "NowisYourRun" in Madrid, Spain on February 26.
On Friday (February 27), Japan will release its February CPI data for Tokyo, while France and Germany will release their February CPI data. Germany will also release its February unemployment rate, and the United States will release its January PPI and February Chicago PMI data.
In addition to core economic data and policy events, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, sudden geopolitical conflicts and unexpected signals from Trump's State of the Union address may trigger a rise in risk aversion, which would benefit safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar.
Secondly, if speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks release stronger hawkish or dovish signals, it will quickly correct market expectations and trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Third, a higher-than-expected global inflation data or a sharp decline in economic indicators could exacerbate market concerns about stagflation and suppress the performance of risk assets.
Fourth, the liquidity fluctuations and forced liquidation risks during the crude oil contract rollover period require close attention to the trading platform rules; fifth, concerns about domestic liquidity tightening caused by the slower-than-expected rollover of MLF may affect the performance of A-shares and RMB assets.
Commitment of Traders Report + Central Bank Statement: Oil Contract Rollover Raises Risks
On Saturday (February 21), the CFTC released its weekly Commitment of Traders report. Dallas Fed President Logan, a 2026 FOMC voting member, delivered a speech, which he described as a data-dependent hawk.
Meanwhile, due to the rollover of contracts, the NYMEX New York crude oil March futures contract completed its last trading session on the exchange at 3:30 AM on February 21st, and its last trading session on the electronic trading platform at 6:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's rollover announcements to manage your risks.
In addition, some trading platforms' WTI crude oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than NYMEX's official expiration date, which may result in forced liquidation for individual traders. Please be aware of this.
European and American data releases begin, Federal Reserve officials speak again.
On Monday (February 23), Germany released its February IFO Business Climate Index, and the United States released its December factory orders data and revised durable goods orders data. Federal Reserve Governor Waller also delivered a speech.
China's LPR leads the way, with multiple major events in focus.
On Tuesday (February 24), China announced its 1-year and 5-year LPR quotes, US President Trump delivered his State of the Union address, which serves as a triple pricing window for policy, personnel, and geopolitics, the US released its February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and Apple held its 2026 shareholder meeting.
Liquidity challenges and escalating inflation drive central bank hawks to unite.
On Wednesday (February 25), 300 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 400 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repos will mature. The US will release EIA and API crude oil inventory data, Australia will release its January CPI data, and the Eurozone will release its January harmonized CPI data.
Germany released its March GfK consumer confidence index and fourth-quarter GDP. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Collins's remarks were cautiously hawkish, while FOMC member Barkin's remarks were data-dependent hawkish.
ECB policy guidance, global economic conditions and employment data
On Thursday (February 26), European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak, the Eurozone will release its industrial sentiment index and economic sentiment index, and the United States will release its initial and continuing jobless claims for the week.
The Bank of Japan's Financial Markets Bureau held a "Market Operations Meeting," and Huawei will hold an innovative product launch event themed "NowisYourRun" in Madrid, Spain on February 26.
Global inflation concludes, with economic data from multiple countries serving as the final indicator.
On Friday (February 27), Japan will release its February CPI data for Tokyo, while France and Germany will release their February CPI data. Germany will also release its February unemployment rate, and the United States will release its January PPI and February Chicago PMI data.
Risk Warning
In addition to core economic data and policy events, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, sudden geopolitical conflicts and unexpected signals from Trump's State of the Union address may trigger a rise in risk aversion, which would benefit safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar.
Secondly, if speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks release stronger hawkish or dovish signals, it will quickly correct market expectations and trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in foreign exchange and precious metals.
Third, a higher-than-expected global inflation data or a sharp decline in economic indicators could exacerbate market concerns about stagflation and suppress the performance of risk assets.
Fourth, the liquidity fluctuations and forced liquidation risks during the crude oil contract rollover period require close attention to the trading platform rules; fifth, concerns about domestic liquidity tightening caused by the slower-than-expected rollover of MLF may affect the performance of A-shares and RMB assets.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
