The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered its tenth day, with the fighting gradually spreading to the civilian water supply infrastructure sector, and desalination plants becoming a new focal point of contention.

This battle over the freshwater system not only exposed the extreme imbalance in the distribution of water resources in the Gulf region, but also highlighted Iran's unique advantage in a protracted war—its low dependence on the desalination system, in stark contrast to the high dependence of neighboring countries, constitutes an important strategic foundation for Iran to cope with a long-term conflict.

The conflict spreads: desalination plants become new targets of conflict.

During the conflict, desalination plants were frequently targeted by attacks.

Bahrain officials have confirmed that an Iranian drone strike targeted a desalination plant in the country, which supplies drinking water to 10,000 people in the region. The attack has directly exacerbated fears of attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi accused the United States of attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island in the Persian Gulf, causing water outages for about 30 villages on the island. Iran strongly condemned this "blatant and desperate crime" and warned the United States of setting a dangerous precedent for attacking civilian infrastructure.

Dependence on Two Poles: The Divergence of Water Resource Patterns in the Gulf Region

Desalination plants, as key facilities for removing salt from seawater and converting it into drinking water through distillation or membrane filtration, have been the lifeline of the Gulf region since the 1970s.

The region’s approximately 100 million people rely on such plants for their domestic, commercial, and public service water needs, and the Arabian Peninsula accounts for a major share of global seawater desalination capacity.

The dependence of different countries on this system varies drastically: 90% of Oman's drinking water comes from desalination, 86% of Saudi Arabia's, nearly 100% of Bahrain's attacked areas rely on it, while desalination accounts for only 3% of Iran's total drinking water supply.

Iran's Confidence: A Diversified Water Supply System Builds Resilience

The root cause of this difference in dependence lies in the structural differences in the water supply systems.

Although Iran has about 95 desalination plants under construction or in operation (75 of which are already in use, producing an average of 630,000 to 640,000 cubic meters of water per day), these facilities only serve a few islands and coastal settlements along the Persian Gulf.

The country’s core water supply system is built on a more robust foundation: dams throughout the country (such as the Larba Dam, located 50 kilometers from Tehran with a total capacity of 960 million cubic meters), natural rivers and groundwater, and ancient water conservancy projects such as the Persian qanats that have been passed down for thousands of years, together form a water supply network with extremely strong resilience.

Even if some desalination plants are attacked, it will only affect local areas and will not shake the fundamental supply of water resources nationwide.

Neighboring Country's Achilles' Heel: Potential Water Crisis Due to High Dependence

In contrast, the vulnerability of the water supply systems of other Gulf countries had already been anticipated by intelligence agencies.

The CIA has pointed out that over 90% of the desalinated drinking water in the Gulf states is concentrated in 56 key facilities. Damage to these large, fixed facilities could take weeks or even months to repair, potentially paralyzing nearby cities within days. Historical lessons are particularly profound: during the Gulf War, Iraq's destruction of Kuwait's water plants plunged the country into a prolonged water shortage, forcing it to rely on imports to meet its basic needs.

For Saudi Arabia, if the desalination pipelines that the capital Riyadh relies on are damaged, residents may be forced to relocate within a week. This pressure on people's livelihoods will greatly limit its ability to engage in the conflict in the long term.

Strategic Game: Freshwater Becomes a Key Weapon in a Protracted War

Against the backdrop of escalating conflict, this difference in water resource resilience is being transformed into a strategic advantage.

Iranian President Pesashkyan has reversed his previous conciliatory stance and vowed to escalate strikes against U.S. targets in the Middle East. The civilian infrastructure sector, including desalination plants, may become a key bargaining chip for him to pressure neighboring countries.

For Iran, attacking desalination facilities that its adversaries rely on highly would create pressure on the people's livelihoods without significantly weakening its own water supply capacity. On the other hand, even if its adversaries attacked Iranian desalination plants, they would hardly have a substantial impact on Iran's overall water supply.

Water resource resilience reshapes the landscape of war games.

This game over freshwater is essentially a test of the resilience of each country's strategic resources.

Iran has a natural advantage in a protracted war thanks to its diversified and resilient water supply system, while countries that rely heavily on desalination face the strategic vulnerability of "water being more expensive than oil."

As the conflict continues, water resources may become a key variable influencing the course of the war, and Iran's relative advantage in this area undoubtedly gives it significant confidence in dealing with a protracted conflict.

This also means that the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on oil prices and the war between Israel, the US, and Iran may last longer than the market expects.