Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has led to an increase in its own oil exports, while other oil-producing countries are facing difficulties.
2026-03-11 14:27:32
Against the backdrop of escalating conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz, as the most critical choke point for global oil transportation, has its navigation status directly impacting the international energy market.
Despite repeated threats from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to attack ships transiting the strait, causing most international shipping companies to avoid the waterway, the latest data shows that Iran's own oil exports have actually exceeded pre-war levels. This anomaly highlights Tehran's de facto control over the strait and also exposes the serious risk of supply disruptions faced by other Gulf oil-producing countries.
Iran maintains its exports through a "shadow fleet," providing crucial support to its finances, while global oil prices have fluctuated wildly, once approaching the $120 mark, and market concerns about a prolonged disruption continue to intensify.
According to data from tanker tracking company Kpler, seven oil tankers have completed loading oil off the coast of Iran since the outbreak of war on February 28. Of the most recent loads, at least two originated from outside the Persian Gulf. Over the past six days, tankers have averaged 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, higher than the 2 million barrels per day export average in February. Despite fluctuations in weekly export volumes, the recent growth indicates that Iranian shipping activity itself has not been significantly hampered, and demand for Iranian crude oil from major Asian powers remains stable.
This phenomenon comes against the backdrop of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' continued threats to attack any ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. With approximately one-third of the world's oil production originating in the Persian Gulf region, Iran has launched drones and missiles at Gulf Arab oil-producing countries and warned of setting ships crossing the strait on fire. Despite this, Iranian exports continue as usual, providing Tehran with a vital financial lifeline.
Kpler data shows that most Iranian oil crossing or heading towards the Strait of Hormuz is transported to major Asian countries by so-called "shadow fleets." These "shadow fleets" mainly consist of older oil tankers used by Iran and Russia, often subject to US sanctions, and are used for clandestine crude oil transport.
Christopher Long, head of intelligence at British maritime security firm Neptune P2P Group, said that almost all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz are linked to Iran or other major Asian powers. He added that the company advises all shipping companies to avoid transiting the strait.
Specific examples include: Last week, a tanker named Skywave loaded oil from Kharag Island, Iran, the main destination for most Iranian crude oil shipments. The ship, owned by an Indian shell company sanctioned by the US last year, is currently flying a counterfeit Comorian flag and is nearing its crossing of the Strait of Hormuz. Another tanker, the Cume, owned by a Dubai entity sanctioned by the US and flying a counterfeit Guyanese flag, loaded 2 million barrels of Iranian crude oil on February 19th and crossed the Strait of Hormuz last week; it is currently in the Gulf of Oman. A third tanker, the Ping Shun, owned by Shandong province in Asia, loaded 600,000 barrels of oil from Kharag Island and is also currently in the Gulf of Oman. None of the ship owners responded to requests for comment.
Ships from major Asian powers often identify themselves to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps via loudspeakers and shortwave radios when passing through, broadcasting in English: "We are ships from a major Asian power, we are passing through, we are friendly." This information can be overheard by other ships.
In stark contrast to Iran, Gulf Arab oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq have drastically reduced production and are scrambling to find new shipping routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a significant reduction in passage for most international shipping companies due to security risks, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
JPMorgan Chase predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for two weeks, oil supply in the Gulf region could decrease by about 3.8 million barrels per day, accounting for more than 3% of global production.
Danish container shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk has 10 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. CEO Vincent Clerc stated that even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, it will take at least a week to 10 days to resume normal operations. He added that the company will not put its employees in danger.
Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Falakshahi, pointed out that only military escorts, a US-Israeli ceasefire, or Iran's surrender could prompt shipping companies to resume operations. He predicts exports will gradually recover, often secretly under the cover of night.
The conflict triggered extreme market volatility, with oil prices approaching $120 a barrel on Monday, but falling below $80 a barrel on Tuesday after US President Trump said the war would end "soon".
Trump announced last week plans to send ships to escort ships through the Strait, but no actual assistance has been seen so far. Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, warned on social media platform X that any passage by the US fleet and its allies would be intercepted by Iranian missiles and suicide drones.
Overall , Iran's actual control over the Strait of Hormuz has exceeded expectations, and its oil exports have increased rather than decreased, mainly due to the continued demand from its "shadow fleet" and major Asian powers, while other oil-producing countries and international shipping face severe disruptions. This crisis has not only amplified the uncertainty of global energy supply but also caused violent fluctuations in oil prices.
The future trajectory depends heavily on whether the conflict de-escalates quickly, whether cross-strait traffic returns to normal, and the actual progress made by all parties in military escort and diplomatic mediation.
If the disruption continues, the global economy will face higher energy costs and supply chain pressures. Investors need to closely monitor developments in the Taiwan Strait and statements from major powers to assess the longer-term risk impact.
Brent crude oil daily chart source: EasyForex
At 14:27 Beijing time on March 11, Brent crude oil futures were trading at $88.18 per barrel.
Despite repeated threats from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to attack ships transiting the strait, causing most international shipping companies to avoid the waterway, the latest data shows that Iran's own oil exports have actually exceeded pre-war levels. This anomaly highlights Tehran's de facto control over the strait and also exposes the serious risk of supply disruptions faced by other Gulf oil-producing countries.
Iran maintains its exports through a "shadow fleet," providing crucial support to its finances, while global oil prices have fluctuated wildly, once approaching the $120 mark, and market concerns about a prolonged disruption continue to intensify.
Iran's oil exports buck the trend and increase, controlling a key passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to data from tanker tracking company Kpler, seven oil tankers have completed loading oil off the coast of Iran since the outbreak of war on February 28. Of the most recent loads, at least two originated from outside the Persian Gulf. Over the past six days, tankers have averaged 2.1 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, higher than the 2 million barrels per day export average in February. Despite fluctuations in weekly export volumes, the recent growth indicates that Iranian shipping activity itself has not been significantly hampered, and demand for Iranian crude oil from major Asian powers remains stable.
This phenomenon comes against the backdrop of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' continued threats to attack any ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. With approximately one-third of the world's oil production originating in the Persian Gulf region, Iran has launched drones and missiles at Gulf Arab oil-producing countries and warned of setting ships crossing the strait on fire. Despite this, Iranian exports continue as usual, providing Tehran with a vital financial lifeline.
Shadow fleet becomes Iran's main export force
Kpler data shows that most Iranian oil crossing or heading towards the Strait of Hormuz is transported to major Asian countries by so-called "shadow fleets." These "shadow fleets" mainly consist of older oil tankers used by Iran and Russia, often subject to US sanctions, and are used for clandestine crude oil transport.
Christopher Long, head of intelligence at British maritime security firm Neptune P2P Group, said that almost all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz are linked to Iran or other major Asian powers. He added that the company advises all shipping companies to avoid transiting the strait.
Specific examples include: Last week, a tanker named Skywave loaded oil from Kharag Island, Iran, the main destination for most Iranian crude oil shipments. The ship, owned by an Indian shell company sanctioned by the US last year, is currently flying a counterfeit Comorian flag and is nearing its crossing of the Strait of Hormuz. Another tanker, the Cume, owned by a Dubai entity sanctioned by the US and flying a counterfeit Guyanese flag, loaded 2 million barrels of Iranian crude oil on February 19th and crossed the Strait of Hormuz last week; it is currently in the Gulf of Oman. A third tanker, the Ping Shun, owned by Shandong province in Asia, loaded 600,000 barrels of oil from Kharag Island and is also currently in the Gulf of Oman. None of the ship owners responded to requests for comment.
Ships from major Asian powers often identify themselves to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps via loudspeakers and shortwave radios when passing through, broadcasting in English: "We are ships from a major Asian power, we are passing through, we are friendly." This information can be overheard by other ships.
Other oil-producing countries and shipping companies are in trouble.
In stark contrast to Iran, Gulf Arab oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq have drastically reduced production and are scrambling to find new shipping routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a significant reduction in passage for most international shipping companies due to security risks, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
JPMorgan Chase predicts that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for two weeks, oil supply in the Gulf region could decrease by about 3.8 million barrels per day, accounting for more than 3% of global production.
Danish container shipping giant AP Moller-Maersk has 10 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. CEO Vincent Clerc stated that even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, it will take at least a week to 10 days to resume normal operations. He added that the company will not put its employees in danger.
Kpler's head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Falakshahi, pointed out that only military escorts, a US-Israeli ceasefire, or Iran's surrender could prompt shipping companies to resume operations. He predicts exports will gradually recover, often secretly under the cover of night.
The market experienced severe volatility, and Trump's escort plan failed to materialize.
The conflict triggered extreme market volatility, with oil prices approaching $120 a barrel on Monday, but falling below $80 a barrel on Tuesday after US President Trump said the war would end "soon".
Trump announced last week plans to send ships to escort ships through the Strait, but no actual assistance has been seen so far. Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, warned on social media platform X that any passage by the US fleet and its allies would be intercepted by Iranian missiles and suicide drones.
Overall , Iran's actual control over the Strait of Hormuz has exceeded expectations, and its oil exports have increased rather than decreased, mainly due to the continued demand from its "shadow fleet" and major Asian powers, while other oil-producing countries and international shipping face severe disruptions. This crisis has not only amplified the uncertainty of global energy supply but also caused violent fluctuations in oil prices.
The future trajectory depends heavily on whether the conflict de-escalates quickly, whether cross-strait traffic returns to normal, and the actual progress made by all parties in military escort and diplomatic mediation.
If the disruption continues, the global economy will face higher energy costs and supply chain pressures. Investors need to closely monitor developments in the Taiwan Strait and statements from major powers to assess the longer-term risk impact.
Brent crude oil daily chart source: EasyForex
At 14:27 Beijing time on March 11, Brent crude oil futures were trading at $88.18 per barrel.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
