CRU Group: Gold still targets $6,000; if global financial system confidence collapses, gold prices could break $10,000.
2026-03-19 00:47:56
Despite gold prices still consolidating within a wide range and briefly falling below $5,000 per ounce, the surge over the past year has once again raised the most controversial question in the market: how high can gold prices actually rise in reality?
In its latest precious metals report, CRU Group commodity analysts stated that gold's long-term upside potential does not depend on traditional supply and demand fundamentals, but rather on how investors and policymakers price gold throughout the financial system.
The agency's analysis suggests that the four-year gold price surge is not a speculative bubble, but rather a repricing deeply tied to structural changes in monetary credit, global debt, and real interest rates.
Analysts point out that the rise in gold prices from around $2,000 per ounce a year ago to a high of nearly $5,600 in January of this year is a revaluation within the existing monetary framework, rather than a systemic collapse. However, the report further extrapolates the potential upside for gold under extreme scenarios.
Extreme scenario: If the US dollar were to be re-pegged to gold, the price of gold could reach tens of thousands of US dollars.
CRU data shows:
The United States has official gold reserves of slightly more than 8,100 tons;
The broad money supply (M2) in the United States is close to $22 trillion.
If policymakers used 100% of the money supply to back the money supply, the corresponding gold price would be approximately $85,000 per ounce.
If M2 is supported by 20%, the corresponding gold price would be close to $17,000 per ounce.
By linking gold solely to the base currency, the price range for gold is between $8,000 and $20,000 per ounce, depending on the coverage ratio.
CRU emphasizes that the figures are not predictions, but merely highlight the scale imbalance between the modern financial system and gold reserves.
Analysts say that the upside potential for gold is not limited by mining supply or industrial demand; the real ceiling is how much instability the financial system can withstand and when investors will flock to seek safe havens.
The macroeconomic environment has shifted to a more favorable direction for gold.
The report points out that the current macroeconomic environment is structurally favorable for gold.
The recent rise in gold prices reflects a structural adjustment in market expectations regarding real interest rates, fiscal discipline, and central bank credit.
Analysts say that even without a complete monetary system reset, a small reallocation of global capital could drive a significant rise in gold prices: just 1% of global financial assets shifting to gold could push gold prices close to $7,500 per ounce.
If market concerns about the sustainability of sovereign debt intensify and funds flow in further, gold prices could break through five figures.
The core reason for the rise in gold prices is "deteriorating trust".
Frank Nikolic, Vice President of North America at CRU Group, said the report clearly demonstrates the high sensitivity of gold prices to changes in confidence and capital allocation.
"I believe gold has already undergone a structural revaluation." He argues that rising global debt and continued uncertainty surrounding monetary policy are the core driving forces.
Nikolic emphasized that the global debt burden is expected to exceed 100% of GDP, which provides a long-term risk premium for gold, even if interest rates do not fall significantly.
"In my view, the core issue with gold's price movement is the deterioration of trust," he added, noting that geopolitical divisions and supply chain disruptions have further solidified gold's position as a monetary metal and a store of value.
Realistic forecast for 2026: Target $6,000, followed by consolidation at high levels.
Although gold prices could break $10,000 in extreme scenarios, CRU’s outlook for 2026 is more rational.
Nikolic said that institutions expect gold prices to continue to rise in the short term, and are likely to reach a high of around $6,000 per ounce in the next year, before entering a consolidation phase.
“We do believe that gold prices will continue to rise next year, and may even reach a peak... before stabilizing at a level slightly below $6,000.”
He added that gold prices will stabilize at historically high levels, which CRU believes signifies a permanent shift in the gold market.
In its latest precious metals report, CRU Group commodity analysts stated that gold's long-term upside potential does not depend on traditional supply and demand fundamentals, but rather on how investors and policymakers price gold throughout the financial system.
The agency's analysis suggests that the four-year gold price surge is not a speculative bubble, but rather a repricing deeply tied to structural changes in monetary credit, global debt, and real interest rates.
Analysts point out that the rise in gold prices from around $2,000 per ounce a year ago to a high of nearly $5,600 in January of this year is a revaluation within the existing monetary framework, rather than a systemic collapse. However, the report further extrapolates the potential upside for gold under extreme scenarios.
Extreme scenario: If the US dollar were to be re-pegged to gold, the price of gold could reach tens of thousands of US dollars.
CRU data shows:
The United States has official gold reserves of slightly more than 8,100 tons;
The broad money supply (M2) in the United States is close to $22 trillion.
If policymakers used 100% of the money supply to back the money supply, the corresponding gold price would be approximately $85,000 per ounce.
If M2 is supported by 20%, the corresponding gold price would be close to $17,000 per ounce.
By linking gold solely to the base currency, the price range for gold is between $8,000 and $20,000 per ounce, depending on the coverage ratio.
CRU emphasizes that the figures are not predictions, but merely highlight the scale imbalance between the modern financial system and gold reserves.
Analysts say that the upside potential for gold is not limited by mining supply or industrial demand; the real ceiling is how much instability the financial system can withstand and when investors will flock to seek safe havens.
The macroeconomic environment has shifted to a more favorable direction for gold.
The report points out that the current macroeconomic environment is structurally favorable for gold.
The recent rise in gold prices reflects a structural adjustment in market expectations regarding real interest rates, fiscal discipline, and central bank credit.
Analysts say that even without a complete monetary system reset, a small reallocation of global capital could drive a significant rise in gold prices: just 1% of global financial assets shifting to gold could push gold prices close to $7,500 per ounce.
If market concerns about the sustainability of sovereign debt intensify and funds flow in further, gold prices could break through five figures.
The core reason for the rise in gold prices is "deteriorating trust".
Frank Nikolic, Vice President of North America at CRU Group, said the report clearly demonstrates the high sensitivity of gold prices to changes in confidence and capital allocation.
"I believe gold has already undergone a structural revaluation." He argues that rising global debt and continued uncertainty surrounding monetary policy are the core driving forces.
Nikolic emphasized that the global debt burden is expected to exceed 100% of GDP, which provides a long-term risk premium for gold, even if interest rates do not fall significantly.
"In my view, the core issue with gold's price movement is the deterioration of trust," he added, noting that geopolitical divisions and supply chain disruptions have further solidified gold's position as a monetary metal and a store of value.
Realistic forecast for 2026: Target $6,000, followed by consolidation at high levels.
Although gold prices could break $10,000 in extreme scenarios, CRU’s outlook for 2026 is more rational.
Nikolic said that institutions expect gold prices to continue to rise in the short term, and are likely to reach a high of around $6,000 per ounce in the next year, before entering a consolidation phase.
“We do believe that gold prices will continue to rise next year, and may even reach a peak... before stabilizing at a level slightly below $6,000.”
He added that gold prices will stabilize at historically high levels, which CRU believes signifies a permanent shift in the gold market.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
