Global stocks rebounded strongly on Wednesday (April 1, 2026) amid expectations that the U.S. might end its military action against Iran sooner than previously thought, with most major indices recording rare single-day gains. Risk assets generally rose, while the dollar index retreated slightly. This optimism stemmed primarily from President Trump's public statements on Tuesday, though he also emphasized significant progress on key U.S. military objectives. White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt subsequently confirmed that Trump would address the nation at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday (9 a.m. Thursday Beijing time) to provide an "important update."



However, this optimistic narrative still needs careful evaluation. Markets appear to be pricing in "hopes" rather than fully confirmed facts to some extent. Key unresolved issues include long-term shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, the potential evolution of Iran's nuclear capabilities post-conflict, the difficulty of coordination among regional allies, and the ongoing impact of energy supply disruptions on global inflation and economic growth. Even if the US reduces its direct military involvement, these factors could still create volatility in the coming months.

Trump stated that the US military operation may be nearing its conclusion within two to three weeks.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday that the United States could end its military action against Iran "within two to three weeks," emphasizing that "we'll be out very soon." He noted significant progress had been made on the primary U.S. objective—ensuring Iran is unable to develop nuclear weapons for an extended period through strikes. Trump added that Iran "doesn't need a deal to end the conflict," a statement interpreted by markets as a signal that the U.S. intends to avoid a prolonged entanglement.

This timeline is slightly longer than the "weeks rather than months" previously mentioned by Defense Secretary and Secretary of State Rubio, but it is still seen as a potential exit path. Trump further stated that the United States will not assume subsequent security responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz, but hopes that countries that rely on the strait for oil transport and trade will handle the relevant issues themselves. This pragmatic attitude of "making regional countries assume more responsibility" is consistent with his consistent negotiation and decision-making style: first achieve core strategic objectives through high-intensity air and missile strikes, and then transfer some follow-up matters to allies and stakeholders.

It is important to note that the complexity of the conflict has not completely disappeared. Officials, including the Secretary of Defense, have repeatedly emphasized that bombing remains the primary means at this stage, and the White House has consistently reminded Iran through public channels to recognize the reality of the situation. This hardline stance, coupled with Trump's optimistic timeline, reflects a gradual transition from a high-intensity military phase to a conclusion. Trump had previously hinted that the operation might last "four to five weeks," but now, entering its fifth week, he has proposed ending it "in two to three weeks." This adjustment likely reflects dynamic changes in battlefield progress assessments.

Tonight's national address from the White House is drawing significant attention. Analysts believe the speech may cover a summary of current military achievements, specific arrangements for the transfer of subsequent responsibilities, and further reassurance to markets and allies. If the speech provides a clearer timeline or conditions, optimism is likely to continue; conversely, if the signals remain ambiguous, market volatility could intensify.

The risks of ground or joint operations have not completely subsided, and the security of the Taiwan Strait remains a key variable.

Despite a potential reduction in direct US involvement, regional uncertainty remains significant. Multiple media reports indicate that Gulf states, including the UAE, are actively pushing for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing the establishment of a multinational "Hormuz Security Force" to protect or reopen shipping through the Straits of Hormuz. This initiative has already garnered support from some European and Asian countries and covers aspects such as escorting merchant ships and addressing potential threats.

However, the possibility of opposition from countries like Russia at the Security Council level adds diplomatic difficulty to the resolution's passage. This push is seen as a signal of potential naval escort or joint intervention, rather than a clear indication of a complete end to the conflict. Currently, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is almost at a standstill, directly impacting approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas transport. Even if the United States withdraws from direct military action, long-term control and security of the strait will remain a significant challenge.

Iran has repeatedly stated its readiness for a protracted conflict, reportedly even mentioning a potential fighting that could last for months. Such statements are common in conflicts, serving both propaganda and deterrence purposes, but they also highlight that even after the military phase concludes, the safety of shipping and energy flows through the Straits may still face intermittent risks. Furthermore, Israel's lack of a clear stance on a ceasefire further complicates the regional situation.

The conflict is currently dominated by air strikes and missile confrontations. The US government has repeatedly stated that nuclear-related objectives can be achieved without ground troops, but the multinational forces promoted by the Gulf states may undertake more escort missions in the future.

Expert opinion: Market optimism needs to be balanced with real risks.

Mizuho multi-asset strategist Evelyne Gomez-Liechti noted, "The market is trading on the narrative that 'the war may end, or even the US may withdraw,' which is creating positive sentiment for risk assets. But we are still conducting military strikes, Israel has not really talked about a ceasefire, and Iran also seems unwilling to negotiate easily." She stated that it is difficult to completely reverse the current optimistic momentum, but she remains relatively cautious about the sustainability of the rebound.

Pepperstone senior strategist Michael Brown further analyzed that the market is trading to some extent "in hope rather than in full expectation." He particularly emphasized that even as the conflict enters its final stages, some core unresolved issues remain: How will control of the Strait of Hormuz be effectively managed if the US reduces its direct involvement? How will Iran's future nuclear capabilities and regional influence evolve? These uncertainties could still put pressure on global inflation expectations, economic growth, and emerging markets.

Brown also mentioned that traders have begun discussing a "Hormuz under Iranian control" scenario, where the strait might partially resume navigation under Iranian influence, but this is still far from complete freedom of navigation. The two experts' views reflect a divergence in current market consensus: short-term risk appetite has rebounded significantly, but the medium- to long-term geopolitical risk premium has not been completely eliminated.

The ongoing tug-of-war between financial markets and geopolitical realities

Crude oil prices fluctuated wildly amid conflict signals: they previously surged above $116 per barrel, reaching a high of nearly $119 per barrel, a recent peak, due to escalating tensions. While they have recently retreated somewhat due to expectations of Trump's withdrawal from the race, they have been fluctuating around $100. Currently, Brent crude is trading in the $102-$105 range, and WTI crude is hovering at similar levels. Gold, meanwhile, has risen slightly due to safe-haven demand.

Analysts point out that the war has brought shipping across the Strait to a near standstill, disrupted Iranian oil exports, and damaged some Middle Eastern energy facilities. This has not only pushed up short-term oil prices but may also impact energy supply and price expectations for the entire year of 2026. Some institutions predict that if the disruption continues, oil prices will face upward pressure later in the year; conversely, if shipping across the Strait gradually resumes, oil prices may fall.

Trump's statements (combining an optimistic timeline with measures to maintain necessary pressure) have alleviated market concerns about energy inflation to some extent and provided support for global risk assets. This rebound in global stock markets stems in part from expectations of a swift resolution in the US and hopes for greater responsibility from regional countries, subsequent negotiations, or a limited recovery in energy resources.

Traders are currently closely awaiting key US economic data, including the ADP employment report and the ISM manufacturing index. This data will help assess the resilience of the US economy and the sustainability of expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy. Meanwhile, Trump's national address tonight will be a crucial catalyst, potentially directly impacting short-term risk appetite and commodity pricing.

Overall: The tug-of-war between hope and reality will continue.

Whether this strong rebound in global stock markets can withstand the test of subsequent geopolitical realities and policy signals remains the biggest unknown. When optimism coexists with unresolved risks (such as long-term security in the Taiwan Strait, the aftermath of the nuclear issue, the difficulty of coordinating with allies, and the transmission effect of energy prices), the market may continue to be in a dynamic tug-of-war between "hope and reality."

Investors should remain vigilant: the final stages of geopolitical events are often accompanied by repeated fluctuations. The temporary end of military operations does not necessarily mean the complete elimination of all uncertainties. Trump's speech tonight will be a crucial window into observing the actual direction of US policy, the details of the timeline, and expectations for allies.

Prior to this, it is advisable to rationally assess positions based on the latest economic data and crude oil inventory reports, rather than simply chasing short-term optimistic narratives. In the current environment, diversified allocation, monitoring the dynamics of energy and inflation-related assets, and closely tracking diplomatic developments remain relatively prudent strategies. In the coming weeks, the actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's response, and the progress of the multinational escort forces will be crucial variables determining market direction.