According to APP, the metals market is currently highly tense, with focus on President Trump's deadline for Iran : failure to reach an agreement by then could result in a full-scale attack on its civilian infrastructure. A recent report from Goldman Sachs analysts, including Aurellia Waltham, explicitly stated: "If the disruption to shipping through the Straits of Hormuz lasts longer than our baseline scenario, the risk of a short-term downside for copper prices is greater, as energy prices will remain high for a longer period, potentially slowing global economic growth."

Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline forecast that the Straits will gradually reopen by mid-April. In this scenario, energy prices are expected to decline, and global economic growth prospects are relatively stable, providing some support for the copper market. However, if the disruption is prolonged, persistently high energy costs will directly increase copper mining and smelting expenses, while simultaneously suppressing downstream manufacturing and infrastructure demand, leading to greater downward pressure on copper prices. Currently, the London Metal Exchange spot copper price is approximately $12,360 per ton, still significantly higher than Goldman Sachs' estimated fair value of approximately $11,100 per ton, representing a premium of over 11%.

As a basic industrial metal, copper prices are highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles. Rising energy prices not only increase production costs—energy consumption typically accounts for 15%-25% of copper smelting—but also indirectly weaken demand by suppressing global industrial activity. Particularly in the current environment, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz , a crucial global oil shipping route, has led to persistently high oil prices, which in turn impacts the overall pricing logic of commodities. If global economic growth slows by 0.5-1 percentage point, the elasticity of copper demand is expected to increase, consequently raising the risk of short-term price declines.

To more intuitively illustrate the potential impact under different scenarios, the following table compares the baseline scenario with the extended interruption scenario:

Analysts further emphasized that current copper prices remain high, partly due to previous speculative buying and expectations of supply chain tensions. Once geopolitical risks ease, the momentum for prices to revert to fair value will strengthen. Aurelius Waltham recently reiterated in a related report that fundamental oversupply pressures and energy cost volatility will be the main variables for the copper market in 2026, advising investors to focus on the actual recovery progress of transportation rather than short-term sentiment fluctuations.

Editor's Summary : Geopolitical uncertainty remains one of the core drivers of the current commodity market. Goldman Sachs ' analysis highlights the profound impact of key shipping lane security on global supply chain stability and price formation mechanisms. Ultimately, copper price movements will depend on the outcome of diplomatic negotiations and the actual speed of recovery in the energy market. Market participants need to continuously monitor the latest developments in the Middle East to dynamically adjust their risk exposure.