JPMorgan Chase: If the Strait of Hormuz standoff continues into July, oil prices could surge to $120.
2026-04-11 01:47:30
JPMorgan Chase stated that if shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz does not fully resume until July, international oil prices may surge again, reaching a peak of nearly $120 per barrel during the Iran conflict.
Latest data shows that the attacks on Saudi oil facilities have led to a reduction of 600,000 barrels per day in production and a restriction of 700,000 barrels per day on the East-West oil pipeline; the current shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz is less than 10% of the normal level, and about 346 oil tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying more than 100 million barrels of crude oil awaiting shipment.
Despite a ceasefire announced earlier this week, shipping on this critical oil transport artery remains severely restricted, with vessels requiring approval and oversight from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to pass.
Iran has also attempted to charge passing ships. On April 7, an official revealed that Tehran planned to charge passing ships a toll in accordance with the ceasefire agreement. This proposal was unanimously opposed by Western countries and UN shipping agencies.
"The ceasefire has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and ship transit remains under strict control," Windward, a maritime news agency, noted on Thursday.
The company stated, "Vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, requires coordination, and is subject to selective enforcement standards," adding, "Commercial shipping has not yet returned to a state of free navigation."
The market is hoping that the US-Iran talks this weekend will further ease tensions and promote the faster reopening of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, significant risks and uncertainties remain, including whether Iran is willing to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz in negotiations.
In any case, the optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would quickly resume shipping after the ceasefire has faded, and analysts are beginning to calculate the timeline for shipping recovery and the potential for a new round of upward pressure on oil prices.
Bloomberg, citing a report released Friday by JPMorgan analysts, said the market expects oil shipments through the Strait to recover to half of normal levels by May, with full navigation expected in June.
However, JPMorgan Chase experts wrote in a report: "If the pace of recovery in air traffic slows down and it does not return to 100% of pre-war levels until July, oil prices may face an upside risk of $15 to $20 per barrel."
At 1:45 AM Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $98.63 per barrel, up 0.73%; however, affected by the ceasefire agreement, both contracts have fallen by about 12% this week, and are on track to record the largest weekly drop since June 2025.
Goldman Sachs analysts warned on Thursday that if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to tankers for the next month, Brent crude oil is expected to average over $100 a barrel this year.
On the other hand, Russia is increasing its exports to offset the supply gap: despite attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities disrupting loading, crude oil exports from western Russian ports rose in early April compared to March; the United States is also considering extending sanctions waivers on Russian oil in order to stabilize global energy prices.
The impact of high oil prices has begun to spill over: Brazilian pulp giant Suzano warned on the same day that if the Middle East crisis continues to push up transportation and chemical costs, the prices of daily necessities such as toilet paper, tissues, and diapers will rise across the board, and inflationary pressures may spread from energy to a wider range of consumer goods.
Latest data shows that the attacks on Saudi oil facilities have led to a reduction of 600,000 barrels per day in production and a restriction of 700,000 barrels per day on the East-West oil pipeline; the current shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz is less than 10% of the normal level, and about 346 oil tankers are stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying more than 100 million barrels of crude oil awaiting shipment.
Despite a ceasefire announced earlier this week, shipping on this critical oil transport artery remains severely restricted, with vessels requiring approval and oversight from the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to pass.
Iran has also attempted to charge passing ships. On April 7, an official revealed that Tehran planned to charge passing ships a toll in accordance with the ceasefire agreement. This proposal was unanimously opposed by Western countries and UN shipping agencies.
"The ceasefire has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and ship transit remains under strict control," Windward, a maritime news agency, noted on Thursday.
The company stated, "Vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, requires coordination, and is subject to selective enforcement standards," adding, "Commercial shipping has not yet returned to a state of free navigation."
The market is hoping that the US-Iran talks this weekend will further ease tensions and promote the faster reopening of commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
However, significant risks and uncertainties remain, including whether Iran is willing to relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz in negotiations.
In any case, the optimism that the Strait of Hormuz would quickly resume shipping after the ceasefire has faded, and analysts are beginning to calculate the timeline for shipping recovery and the potential for a new round of upward pressure on oil prices.
Bloomberg, citing a report released Friday by JPMorgan analysts, said the market expects oil shipments through the Strait to recover to half of normal levels by May, with full navigation expected in June.
However, JPMorgan Chase experts wrote in a report: "If the pace of recovery in air traffic slows down and it does not return to 100% of pre-war levels until July, oil prices may face an upside risk of $15 to $20 per barrel."
At 1:45 AM Beijing time, WTI crude oil was trading at $98.63 per barrel, up 0.73%; however, affected by the ceasefire agreement, both contracts have fallen by about 12% this week, and are on track to record the largest weekly drop since June 2025.
Goldman Sachs analysts warned on Thursday that if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to tankers for the next month, Brent crude oil is expected to average over $100 a barrel this year.
On the other hand, Russia is increasing its exports to offset the supply gap: despite attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities disrupting loading, crude oil exports from western Russian ports rose in early April compared to March; the United States is also considering extending sanctions waivers on Russian oil in order to stabilize global energy prices.
The impact of high oil prices has begun to spill over: Brazilian pulp giant Suzano warned on the same day that if the Middle East crisis continues to push up transportation and chemical costs, the prices of daily necessities such as toilet paper, tissues, and diapers will rise across the board, and inflationary pressures may spread from energy to a wider range of consumer goods.
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