Sukden Financial: Gold and silver fundamentals remain favorable, but a new catalyst for price increases is still needed.
2026-05-15 23:01:07
Since the beginning of the second quarter, the long-term fundamentals of gold and silver have remained solid, continuing to support prices. However, one investment institution stated that for these two precious metals to experience a significant and certain price surge, the market still needs clear positive signals from the macroeconomy to ignite a rally.
Gold Market: Resistance Remains, Two Conditions Required for a Significant Rally
In its latest quarterly metals market outlook report, London-based brokerage Sucden Financial pointed out that persistently high US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar remain the core obstacles suppressing gold prices. Geopolitical instability and stable physical gold demand are currently only able to hold gold prices within the lower range, failing to drive a strong upward surge.
The agency stated bluntly that for gold prices to see a substantial surge, they must rely on declining real yields and a weaker dollar.
Sukden Financial noted that even with escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, gold has failed to fulfill its role as a traditional safe-haven asset. Geopolitical tensions have not prompted an influx of funds into gold; instead, they have pushed up international oil prices, further increasing market inflation expectations and driving up US Treasury yields. Since gold itself offers no interest income, higher yields directly increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is bearish for gold prices.
Analysts believe that gold will only have the conditions for a significant rise once the market begins to price in lower real yields, a weaker dollar, or the Federal Reserve clearly signals interest rate cuts and easing measures.
Gold's medium- to long-term fundamentals: Positive factors remain, but momentum is insufficient.
However, the agency emphasized that the overall medium- to long-term fundamentals for gold remain bullish. Even with fluctuating gold prices, global gold ETF holdings remain at historically high levels, demonstrating the solid holding intentions of institutional investors. However, current buying can only mitigate the risk of a price decline and cannot generate the upward momentum needed for a sustained rally.
Gold Short-Term Outlook: Range-bound trading, key price levels are clear.
Sukden Financial predicts that gold prices will likely remain range-bound in the short term, with $4,500 per ounce as a key support level. If gold prices are to break through the $4,800 mark, weaker US economic data or a clearer dovish signal from the Federal Reserve are needed.
Silver Market: Fundamentals are tight; recent price increases lack momentum.
Silver prices surged to $87 per ounce this week, a two-month high, but the overall market environment is similar to that of gold.
Compared to gold, silver's fundamentals are tighter, with a persistent long-term supply shortage and low speculative positions, which continues to support silver prices. Earlier this year, after a significant correction, speculative positions in silver on the New York Mercantile Exchange shrank considerably, falling far below previous highs; silver ETF holdings also declined significantly compared to the end of 2025, indicating that even with a tight supply-demand balance, institutional investment remains weak.
Even though silver prices have recently seen a surge, Sukeden Financial believes that the current scale of market capital inflows has not yet reached the level required for a sustained bull market in silver.
Conditions for silver price increases: Capital inflow + improved macroeconomic environment
The institution stated, "Supported by continued supply shortages and low speculative positions, silver prices have a solid bottom in the second quarter. For silver prices to see a strong rally, ETF funds need to increase their holdings again, speculative long positions need to be replenished, and the overall macroeconomic environment needs to improve significantly."
Differences between gold and silver: Silver is more sensitive to macroeconomic factors, and their price fluctuations follow different logics.
Because silver accounts for a very large proportion of industrial consumption, its price movements are far more sensitive to the macroeconomic environment than gold. If the US economy achieves a soft landing—with inflation gradually declining, the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts, and the economy not falling into recession—market liquidity will improve, and industrial demand for silver will remain stable. Under this environment, silver is expected to outperform gold.
At the same time, institutions also warned of risks: if the economy experiences a deep downturn, the huge industrial demand for silver will turn into a negative factor, and the price volatility of silver will increase significantly, and its market performance will likely be weaker than that of gold.
Silver Short-Term Outlook: Support is clear, rebound requires capital inflows.
Looking ahead, institutions expect the core support range for silver prices to be between $70 and $72 per ounce. For silver prices to rebound to the $80 to $85 range, both continued net inflows into silver ETFs and a continued positive macroeconomic environment are needed.
Gold Market: Resistance Remains, Two Conditions Required for a Significant Rally
In its latest quarterly metals market outlook report, London-based brokerage Sucden Financial pointed out that persistently high US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar remain the core obstacles suppressing gold prices. Geopolitical instability and stable physical gold demand are currently only able to hold gold prices within the lower range, failing to drive a strong upward surge.
The agency stated bluntly that for gold prices to see a substantial surge, they must rely on declining real yields and a weaker dollar.
Sukden Financial noted that even with escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere, gold has failed to fulfill its role as a traditional safe-haven asset. Geopolitical tensions have not prompted an influx of funds into gold; instead, they have pushed up international oil prices, further increasing market inflation expectations and driving up US Treasury yields. Since gold itself offers no interest income, higher yields directly increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is bearish for gold prices.
Analysts believe that gold will only have the conditions for a significant rise once the market begins to price in lower real yields, a weaker dollar, or the Federal Reserve clearly signals interest rate cuts and easing measures.
Gold's medium- to long-term fundamentals: Positive factors remain, but momentum is insufficient.
However, the agency emphasized that the overall medium- to long-term fundamentals for gold remain bullish. Even with fluctuating gold prices, global gold ETF holdings remain at historically high levels, demonstrating the solid holding intentions of institutional investors. However, current buying can only mitigate the risk of a price decline and cannot generate the upward momentum needed for a sustained rally.
Gold Short-Term Outlook: Range-bound trading, key price levels are clear.
Sukden Financial predicts that gold prices will likely remain range-bound in the short term, with $4,500 per ounce as a key support level. If gold prices are to break through the $4,800 mark, weaker US economic data or a clearer dovish signal from the Federal Reserve are needed.
Silver Market: Fundamentals are tight; recent price increases lack momentum.
Silver prices surged to $87 per ounce this week, a two-month high, but the overall market environment is similar to that of gold.
Compared to gold, silver's fundamentals are tighter, with a persistent long-term supply shortage and low speculative positions, which continues to support silver prices. Earlier this year, after a significant correction, speculative positions in silver on the New York Mercantile Exchange shrank considerably, falling far below previous highs; silver ETF holdings also declined significantly compared to the end of 2025, indicating that even with a tight supply-demand balance, institutional investment remains weak.
Even though silver prices have recently seen a surge, Sukeden Financial believes that the current scale of market capital inflows has not yet reached the level required for a sustained bull market in silver.
Conditions for silver price increases: Capital inflow + improved macroeconomic environment
The institution stated, "Supported by continued supply shortages and low speculative positions, silver prices have a solid bottom in the second quarter. For silver prices to see a strong rally, ETF funds need to increase their holdings again, speculative long positions need to be replenished, and the overall macroeconomic environment needs to improve significantly."
Differences between gold and silver: Silver is more sensitive to macroeconomic factors, and their price fluctuations follow different logics.
Because silver accounts for a very large proportion of industrial consumption, its price movements are far more sensitive to the macroeconomic environment than gold. If the US economy achieves a soft landing—with inflation gradually declining, the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts, and the economy not falling into recession—market liquidity will improve, and industrial demand for silver will remain stable. Under this environment, silver is expected to outperform gold.
At the same time, institutions also warned of risks: if the economy experiences a deep downturn, the huge industrial demand for silver will turn into a negative factor, and the price volatility of silver will increase significantly, and its market performance will likely be weaker than that of gold.
Silver Short-Term Outlook: Support is clear, rebound requires capital inflows.
Looking ahead, institutions expect the core support range for silver prices to be between $70 and $72 per ounce. For silver prices to rebound to the $80 to $85 range, both continued net inflows into silver ETFs and a continued positive macroeconomic environment are needed.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
