Next week (May 25-29), the global financial market will see a concentrated interplay of policy signals and key data, with central bank actions, inflation data, and geopolitical situations all influencing market trends.

From speeches by key Federal Reserve officials to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, from leading indicators of Chinese corporate profits to inflation data from Europe and the United States, each event could trigger sharp fluctuations in asset prices.

Given the liquidity changes resulting from the partial market closures, investors need to focus on key variables and accurately grasp the marginal changes in policies and data.

Global markets begin their holiday break, liquidity pauses to build momentum.

US, Hong Kong, and South Korean stock markets will be closed on Monday (May 25), with no major data releases scheduled. Major global markets are entering a brief period of consolidation, and tightening liquidity may exacerbate short-term volatility. Investors can use this time to analyze upcoming data and policy developments to prepare for future trading strategies.

Meanwhile, trading in U.S. crude oil futures contracts was suspended at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, Brent crude oil futures were suspended at 1:30, and trading in U.S. stock index futures contracts was suspended at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th.

US data leads the way, with initial signs of consumption and employment.

On Tuesday (May 26), a flurry of US economic data was released, starting with the weekly ADP data. As a leading indicator of non-farm payrolls, its performance will reflect the resilience of the US labor market in advance.

Subsequently, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May and the Dallas Business Index for May were released. The former is directly related to the health of the US consumer market (US consumption accounts for more than 70% of GDP), while the latter reflects the vitality of Texas manufacturing.

Data from China, Australia, and New Zealand are linked, leaving the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike uncertain.

On Wednesday (May 27), China released the April profits of enterprises above a designated size, which is a core indicator of the profitability of domestic industrial enterprises.

Australia has released its adjusted CPI, and this inflation data will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's future interest rate path.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has released its latest interest rate decision, with the market expecting it to remain unchanged at 2.25% . Attention should be paid to whether there is a shift in the wording regarding economic growth and inflation in the policy statement.

The day's focus was on Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech at the monetary policy meeting . Currently, over 60% of economists are betting that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1% in June. If his speech releases hawkish signals, it could trigger a short-term strengthening of the yen.

With a flurry of policy announcements from Europe and the US, core inflation data is becoming crucial.

On Thursday (May 28), the API released crude oil inventory data, and the US released the first quarter core PCE index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator), April durable goods orders, and initial and continuing jobless claims.

The European Central Bank released the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting, which showed that all members believed the risks to the inflation outlook were tilted to the upside and that attention should be paid to whether the possibility of further interest rate hikes was mentioned.

In the evening , Williams, a permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the New York Federal Reserve, delivered a keynote speech at the Iceland conference . As the third-in-command of the Federal Reserve, his speech has a significant guiding effect on market expectations.

Global inflation data releases conclude, with central bank leaders from multiple countries issuing statements.

On Friday (May 29), the EIA released its crude oil inventory change data, which, along with the API data from the previous day, will jointly dominate the short-term trend of oil prices. Japan will also release its unemployment rate and Tokyo CPI. As a leading indicator of inflation across Japan, if the Tokyo CPI continues to be higher than expected, it will further strengthen expectations of a June interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Germany and France released their May CPI figures. As core economies in the Eurozone, the inflation data from these two countries will directly impact the overall inflation trend in the Eurozone.

The United States released the preliminary Chicago PMI, reflecting the manufacturing activity in the Midwestern United States.

On the policy front, Bank of England Governor Bailey, 2028 FOMC voting member Schmid, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak at the Iceland conference . The collective pronouncements from senior central bank officials from multiple countries may signal a coordinated global monetary policy.

Risk Warning: Three key variables require close monitoring.

In addition to core economic data, investors should also be wary of three potential risks: First, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalation of the situation in the Middle East could trigger a rise in risk aversion.

Second, if speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and other central banks release unexpected signals of a policy shift, it could quickly correct market expectations and trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in exchange rates and bond markets.

Third, global inflation is stickier than expected. If core inflation data in Europe and the US remain high, it may delay the central bank's easing process and suppress the performance of risk assets.