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2026-05-26 09:07:11
[Memory stocks surge, but analysts warn "cycle not dead," new compression technology may disrupt demand] (1) Since the release of ChatGPT triggered huge demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), memory-related stocks in the US and South Korea have risen sharply: Samsung and SK Hynix have surged 114% and 186% respectively year-to-date, while Micron and SanDisk have also risen by more than 140%. Industry executives believe that AI has broken the past boom-bust cycle, and structural supply shortages will support high prices for several years. (2) But market observers warn not to forget the cyclical nature of the market. BlueBox fund managers say that the memory industry often has "huge ups and downs," and every time someone claims that the cycle is over and the industry is shifting to long-term value creation, big problems often arise. In addition, TurboQuant, a new compression method launched by Google's parent company Alphabet, can reduce the memory required for large models by six times, which may structurally reduce the demand for AI chips; Deutsche Bank believes that investors should continue to prepare for AI-related disruptions, but whether the technology will bring about a shift in demand remains to be seen. (3) South Korea's concentration risk is prominent: Samsung and SK Hynix together account for more than 50% of the KOSPI index. Standard Chartered's Global Chief Investment Officer recommends taking profits on some South Korean stocks and shifting towards global diversification. While Nomura remains bullish on two stocks (Samsung with a 20% target price and SK Hynix with a potential doubling), Ranmore's Chief Investment Officer cautions that the industry has historically had mediocre returns on capital, and current share prices assume high prices, high discipline, and high profit margins, urging investors to exercise caution.
