Is the 14-point agreement just a "pie in the sky"? Three key points of contention in the US-Iran negotiations you must pay attention to.
2026-05-26 09:11:56
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagaei said on Monday (May 25) that many issues discussed in a potential 14-point memorandum of understanding have been concluded, but this does not mean that an agreement to end the conflict between the US and Iran is imminent. The framework aims to end the conflict and lift the US maritime blockade in exchange for Tehran taking measures to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
The two sides remain divided on thorny issues, including Iran's nuclear ambitions, the conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Tehran's demands for the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of frozen assets. Both sides stated that progress has been made in reaching a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict and giving negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement.
Iranian senior diplomat Hossein Nushabadi stated that a possible framework agreement includes: ending the conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon; releasing frozen Iranian assets; lifting the US naval blockade and opening the Strait of Hormuz; the withdrawal of US troops from the vicinity of Iran; and the free sale of Iranian oil. Nushabadi indicated that the initial draft agreement does not contain any commitments regarding Iran's nuclear program.
A senior Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Iran has agreed "in principle" to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and its agreement to dispose of Tehran's highly enriched uranium. Baga'e stated that the potential preliminary agreement lacks specific details regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Nushabadi said that the management of the strait is an issue being discussed between Iran and Oman.
If Iran's Supreme National Security Council approves and confirms the memorandum of understanding, it will be submitted to the Supreme Leader for final approval. The senior U.S. official stated that the U.S. understands that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has endorsed the overall framework of the agreement.
Bagae and Nusabadi stated that if progress is made in the first phase of the agreement, the nuclear issue could be reviewed and negotiated within a 60-day period. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned that the 60-day period would be dedicated to "a very real, significant, and time-bound negotiation" on the nuclear issue. The last previous agreement on the nuclear program—reached in 2015 and torn up by US President Trump in 2018—had undergone years of negotiations by a large team of technical experts.
Strait of Hormuz and Gulf Blockade: Tehran views its control of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's blockade of Iranian ports as their respective major bargaining chips.
Nuclear issue: The United States believes Iran wants to build nuclear bombs. Iran has consistently denied this, claiming its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. The focus is on its uranium enrichment activities—a process that can fuel nuclear power plants and also be used to make nuclear warheads. An agreement could eventually be reached, including a long-term moratorium on uranium enrichment and the export or dilution of its stockpile.
Ballistic missiles: A key pre-war U.S. demand was that Iran limit the range of its ballistic missiles to prevent them from reaching Israel. Iran consistently refused to discuss its ballistic missiles, stating that its rights to conventional weapons were non-negotiable and that it still possessed a large arsenal.
Sanctions and asset freezes: Years of sanctions have battered Iran's economy, leading to nationwide unrest in January. Tehran urgently needs the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks. It is also demanding compensation for losses caused by the conflict.
The existence of these core disagreements has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the market's optimistic expectations for a US-Iran agreement—but at least for now, traders are choosing to "believe" that an agreement can be reached, and market risk appetite has improved significantly.
On Monday, the US dollar index closed below 99.00; the euro briefly returned to the 1.1650 area against the dollar; the pound sterling closed above 1.3500; the Australian dollar rebounded to around 0.7170; spot gold prices rose sharply by 1.4%, finally closing at US$4,570 per ounce; and oil prices plummeted by nearly 7%.
However, the downside potential for the dollar in the short term may be limited: US inflation data remains stubborn, Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish stance, and monetary policy expectations continue to provide bottom support for the dollar.
In conclusion, the US and Iran have reached conclusions on many issues in the 14-point memorandum of understanding, laying the foundation for a preliminary agreement to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz.
However, profound differences remain between the two sides on core issues such as the nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and the unfreezing of assets. The agreement requires approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader, and the 60-day negotiation period will be a crucial window for determining whether a comprehensive agreement can be reached.
Currently, geopolitical risks have not yet dissipated, and the market needs to closely monitor the substantive progress of the negotiations.
Negotiation Phase: The two sides still have differences on difficult issues such as nuclear issues and asset unfreezing.
The two sides remain divided on thorny issues, including Iran's nuclear ambitions, the conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Tehran's demands for the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of frozen assets. Both sides stated that progress has been made in reaching a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict and giving negotiators 60 days to reach a final agreement.
Iranian senior diplomat Hossein Nushabadi stated that a possible framework agreement includes: ending the conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon; releasing frozen Iranian assets; lifting the US naval blockade and opening the Strait of Hormuz; the withdrawal of US troops from the vicinity of Iran; and the free sale of Iranian oil. Nushabadi indicated that the initial draft agreement does not contain any commitments regarding Iran's nuclear program.
A senior Trump administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Iran has agreed "in principle" to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and its agreement to dispose of Tehran's highly enriched uranium. Baga'e stated that the potential preliminary agreement lacks specific details regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Nushabadi said that the management of the strait is an issue being discussed between Iran and Oman.
Agreement implementation path: Requires approval from the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader.
If Iran's Supreme National Security Council approves and confirms the memorandum of understanding, it will be submitted to the Supreme Leader for final approval. The senior U.S. official stated that the U.S. understands that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has endorsed the overall framework of the agreement.
Bagae and Nusabadi stated that if progress is made in the first phase of the agreement, the nuclear issue could be reviewed and negotiated within a 60-day period. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned that the 60-day period would be dedicated to "a very real, significant, and time-bound negotiation" on the nuclear issue. The last previous agreement on the nuclear program—reached in 2015 and torn up by US President Trump in 2018—had undergone years of negotiations by a large team of technical experts.
Key sticking points: control of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issue, ballistic missiles, sanctions and asset freezes.
Strait of Hormuz and Gulf Blockade: Tehran views its control of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's blockade of Iranian ports as their respective major bargaining chips.
Nuclear issue: The United States believes Iran wants to build nuclear bombs. Iran has consistently denied this, claiming its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only. The focus is on its uranium enrichment activities—a process that can fuel nuclear power plants and also be used to make nuclear warheads. An agreement could eventually be reached, including a long-term moratorium on uranium enrichment and the export or dilution of its stockpile.
Ballistic missiles: A key pre-war U.S. demand was that Iran limit the range of its ballistic missiles to prevent them from reaching Israel. Iran consistently refused to discuss its ballistic missiles, stating that its rights to conventional weapons were non-negotiable and that it still possessed a large arsenal.
Sanctions and asset freezes: Years of sanctions have battered Iran's economy, leading to nationwide unrest in January. Tehran urgently needs the lifting of sanctions and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks. It is also demanding compensation for losses caused by the conflict.
The market has already moved even though the agreement has not been reached.
The existence of these core disagreements has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the market's optimistic expectations for a US-Iran agreement—but at least for now, traders are choosing to "believe" that an agreement can be reached, and market risk appetite has improved significantly.
On Monday, the US dollar index closed below 99.00; the euro briefly returned to the 1.1650 area against the dollar; the pound sterling closed above 1.3500; the Australian dollar rebounded to around 0.7170; spot gold prices rose sharply by 1.4%, finally closing at US$4,570 per ounce; and oil prices plummeted by nearly 7%.
However, the downside potential for the dollar in the short term may be limited: US inflation data remains stubborn, Federal Reserve officials maintain a hawkish stance, and monetary policy expectations continue to provide bottom support for the dollar.
A memorandum of understanding has taken initial shape, but a comprehensive agreement still faces numerous obstacles.
In conclusion, the US and Iran have reached conclusions on many issues in the 14-point memorandum of understanding, laying the foundation for a preliminary agreement to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz.
However, profound differences remain between the two sides on core issues such as the nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and the unfreezing of assets. The agreement requires approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader, and the 60-day negotiation period will be a crucial window for determining whether a comprehensive agreement can be reached.
Currently, geopolitical risks have not yet dissipated, and the market needs to closely monitor the substantive progress of the negotiations.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
