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2026-05-26 19:01:26
[The 5-year/30-year US Treasury yield spread hit 80 basis points, the narrowest level since June 2025; the 30-year yield rose to 5.20%, a new high since 2007] ⑴ On Tuesday, the spread between the 5-year and 30-year US Treasury yields narrowed to 80 basis points, the lowest level since June 2025. Previous historical lows included 79 basis points in June 2025 and 74 basis points in May. The spread has temporarily stabilized after a slight reversal, with resistance at 84-85 basis points, followed by trend resistance at 88 basis points. ⑵ The 5-year yield touched a high of 4.35% last week, the highest since February 2025, before pulling back. Current support is at 4.15%, with trend support around 4.08%. (3) The 30-year yield rose to a high of 5.20% last week, the highest level since 2007, when it peaked at 5.45%. Currently, the 30-year yield is holding steady above 5.00%, with trend support at 4.99%. (4) From a trading psychology perspective, the continued flattening of the yield curve reflects market pricing in tightening monetary policy and concerns about inflation stickiness. Short-term interest rates are supported by the Fed's hawkish stance, while long-term rates are fluctuating between economic growth expectations and geopolitical risks. Whether long-term allocation funds such as pension funds and insurance companies will enter the market after the 30-year yield breaks through the 5% mark is worth watching. (5) Future attention should be paid to the guidance of US PCE inflation data on the interest rate path. If inflation data is higher than expected, long-term yields may further test the 2007 high, and the flattening trend of the curve may continue. If the data is weaker, there is a possibility of a corrective widening of the interest rate spread.
