COT Commitment of Traders Report: Dollar bulls continue to strengthen, commodities collectively cool down.
2026-06-01 19:20:04
The weekly COT report shows the positions of large speculators and asset management firms in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures market, serving as a sentiment indicator for market analysis. Below is the COT position data released by the Commodity Exchange Commission as of Tuesday, May 26th. There is a three-day lag between the report's release date and the actual positions recorded by traders. The report is released on Fridays, but only contains data up to Tuesday. In terms of timing, it is more suitable for long-term traders.
The latest COT (Committee on the Occupations) data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows a significant divergence in the overall market landscape: Dollar bulls continued to expand, driven by market trends and positive fundamentals, leading to a broad-based strengthening; non-US currencies such as the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar faced downward pressure, with yen short positions nearing the intervention threshold set by Japan's Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, rising optimism regarding a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran triggered a collective withdrawal of funds from the commodities market, causing a sharp decline in energy and agricultural sectors, with only a few metals showing slight gains.
Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar rose for the second consecutive day, while the landscape of non-US currencies became polarized.
With crude oil prices remaining high and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East constantly shifting, the market is struggling to form a unified logic for a bearish view on the US dollar. Trend-driven buying is propelling the dollar's strength, and bullish sentiment has intensified for two consecutive weeks. Data shows that net long positions in the US Dollar Index (DXY) increased by $5.9 billion in a single week, bringing total open interest to $15 billion. Among these, asset management institutions' net long positions in the US dollar rose to 16,200 contracts, a 15-month high. Looking at the overall long positions in the US dollar against the eight major IMM international currency futures, the increase this period was a staggering 57%, reaching a total of $16.5 billion, just shy of the multi-month high reached in early April, and marking the largest weekly inflow in seven weeks.
From a historical perspective, current long positions in the US dollar are not in overbought territory. Between 2020 and 2025, the market's net long position in the US dollar repeatedly touched the $30 billion mark. In comparison, current long positions still have room to rise, the bullish foundation is solid, and there are no signs of a market top. Looking at the behavior of major traders, large speculators have shifted to net long positions in the US dollar index, coupled with continued increases in holdings by asset management institutions, creating a combined force supporting the dollar's performance.
The performance of positions across different currencies was uneven, with speculative funds mainly shorting the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar, and selling off the euro slightly; the Swiss franc, British pound, and New Zealand dollar saw some safe-haven and bargain-hunting buying, showing relatively strong resilience.
1. USD/JPY: Bearish sentiment spirals out of control, intervention risk soars.
The Japanese yen was the focus of the foreign exchange market this period. Even with repeated warnings from the Bank of Japan regarding intervention in the foreign exchange market, it failed to curb short-selling enthusiasm, with speculators continuing to increase their short positions in the yen. Currently, net short positions in yen futures have increased to 115,000 contracts, a 22-month high, corresponding to approximately $9 billion in funds. Looking at the position structure, total short positions in yen futures remain high, while long positions have not significantly decreased, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears. However, overall bearish sentiment is nearing a temporary peak.
Looking back at market movements, Japan's Ministry of Finance previously intervened in the market, causing the USD/JPY pair to plummet by 500 points within an hour. The pair has since recovered most of its losses. Currently, USD/JPY is only 40 basis points away from the key intervention level of 160, a price level widely recognized as a red line for Japanese intervention. This week, exchange rate volatility risk has increased significantly, and investors need to closely monitor the actions of Japan's Ministry of Finance.
2. Euro and Pound Sterling: Positions remained stable with limited volatility.
Overall positioning in the euro against the US dollar remained largely unchanged, with large speculators holding 29,400 net long euro contracts and asset management firms maintaining a substantial net long position of 270,000 contracts, indicating no significant shift in market sentiment. The pound also traded flat, with traders only slightly reducing their net short pound contracts by approximately 4,000 contracts, suggesting a generally neutral overall sentiment.
3. USD/CHF: Short selling subsides, negative factors ease.
The bearish sentiment towards the Swiss franc has cooled somewhat, with large speculators and asset management institutions reducing their net short positions in Swiss francs by a total of 3,700 contracts. Short positions have fallen, indicating that the short-term negative factors have been fully priced in.
4. Australian Dollar: Profit-taking by bulls slows the upward momentum.
The Australian dollar had previously experienced a strong rally, leading to a concentrated sell-off at higher levels. Large speculators and asset management institutions collectively reduced their net long positions in the Australian dollar by 46,000 contracts, primarily by closing out long positions, quickly cooling the bullish sentiment.
5. USD/CAD: Short sellers aggressively increased their positions, plunging the Canadian dollar into a deep downward spiral.
The Canadian dollar was the worst-performing major non-US dollar currency this period. Large speculators nearly doubled their net long positions in USD/CAD, increasing to 69,000 contracts; the market's net short positions in the Canadian dollar surged by 37,600 contracts in a single week, marking the strongest weekly bearish move in nearly two years and placing it among the most volatile weekly markets in the past eight years. Asset management institutions also turned net short on the Canadian dollar for the first time in six weeks, with their short positions reaching a new high for the year.
It's worth noting that this round of short-selling in the Canadian dollar occurred before Canada officially announced a technical recession and a significant increase in the fiscal deficit, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations for the Canadian dollar. Currently, speculators and asset management institutions are simultaneously increasing their short positions and reducing their long positions, turning entirely into a net short position. Coupled with the continued decline in Canadian dollar futures prices and the continuous rise in total market open interest, new short positions are constantly entering the market, making buying USD/CAD on dips the mainstream trading strategy. From a purely technical perspective, the USD/CAD daily chart shows a reversal signal at a high level, and the Canadian dollar futures weekly chart closed with a doji, suggesting a possible slight pullback in the short term.
II. Commodities: Rising expectations of US-China peace talks lead to widespread sell-offs across all categories.
Driven by market optimism regarding a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, demand for safe-haven assets declined, leading to widespread liquidation and selling across commodities. While the trading period was shortened due to holidays, market volatility was significant: the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 4% in a single week, with only 6 of the 25 core commodity futures contracts tracked closing higher. The energy and agricultural sectors, two major weighted sectors, suffered heavy losses, falling by over 9% and 3.5% respectively, directly offsetting all gains in the industrial and precious metals sectors. Overall, only 3 of the 24 mainstream futures contracts did not experience net selling by asset management traders, with crude oil, natural gas, soybeans, corn, and live cattle leading the market decline.
1. Energy Sector: Crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive day, while natural gas short positions hit a two-year high.
Bullish sentiment in the crude oil market continues to collapse, with net long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil declining for the fourth consecutive week, currently down to 370,000 contracts, a two-month low. Compared to the peak in mid-March, current bullish positions have shrunk by one-third. This decline in crude oil long positions is driven by two factors: both investors actively closing long positions to take profits and new short positions entering the market: total long contracts decreased by 83,000, while total short contracts increased by 100,000. In addition, open interest in refined oil products is mixed, with no unified trend; bearish sentiment has erupted across the board in the natural gas market, with net short positions expanding to their highest level in two years.
2. Metals Sector: Precious metals showed resilience, while industrial copper harbors hidden downside risks.
The metals sector saw divergent trends: Gold prices repeatedly tested the 200-day moving average without success, indicating weakening bearish momentum. A slight covering of short positions helped stabilize gold prices. Silver and platinum, however, followed the overall commodity trend, experiencing net selling. Copper, one of the strongest performing industrial metals this week, rose against the trend, but long positions did not increase proportionally, with net long positions slightly declining. This was due to pressure from new short positions, casting doubt on the sustainability of its short-term gains.
3. Agriculture sector: Grain prices saw widespread profit-taking, with all categories generally weakening.
The pressure on agricultural products was mainly influenced by two factors: the decline in international energy prices and the continued improvement in weather conditions in US crop-growing areas. Amid these multiple positive factors, long positions were liquidated, with all six major grain and oilseed futures contracts seeing reductions in open interest. The industry's overall net long position decreased by 146,000 contracts in a single week, currently totaling 667,000 contracts; compared to the historical peak of 874,000 contracts three weeks ago, the decline is significant. In addition, soft commodities and livestock products also experienced a broad downturn, with sugar, previously surging cotton, and lean pork futures becoming the main targets of short selling.
The latest COT (Committee on the Occupations) data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows a significant divergence in the overall market landscape: Dollar bulls continued to expand, driven by market trends and positive fundamentals, leading to a broad-based strengthening; non-US currencies such as the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar faced downward pressure, with yen short positions nearing the intervention threshold set by Japan's Ministry of Finance. Meanwhile, rising optimism regarding a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran triggered a collective withdrawal of funds from the commodities market, causing a sharp decline in energy and agricultural sectors, with only a few metals showing slight gains.
Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar rose for the second consecutive day, while the landscape of non-US currencies became polarized.
With crude oil prices remaining high and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East constantly shifting, the market is struggling to form a unified logic for a bearish view on the US dollar. Trend-driven buying is propelling the dollar's strength, and bullish sentiment has intensified for two consecutive weeks. Data shows that net long positions in the US Dollar Index (DXY) increased by $5.9 billion in a single week, bringing total open interest to $15 billion. Among these, asset management institutions' net long positions in the US dollar rose to 16,200 contracts, a 15-month high. Looking at the overall long positions in the US dollar against the eight major IMM international currency futures, the increase this period was a staggering 57%, reaching a total of $16.5 billion, just shy of the multi-month high reached in early April, and marking the largest weekly inflow in seven weeks.
From a historical perspective, current long positions in the US dollar are not in overbought territory. Between 2020 and 2025, the market's net long position in the US dollar repeatedly touched the $30 billion mark. In comparison, current long positions still have room to rise, the bullish foundation is solid, and there are no signs of a market top. Looking at the behavior of major traders, large speculators have shifted to net long positions in the US dollar index, coupled with continued increases in holdings by asset management institutions, creating a combined force supporting the dollar's performance.
The performance of positions across different currencies was uneven, with speculative funds mainly shorting the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar, and selling off the euro slightly; the Swiss franc, British pound, and New Zealand dollar saw some safe-haven and bargain-hunting buying, showing relatively strong resilience.
1. USD/JPY: Bearish sentiment spirals out of control, intervention risk soars.
The Japanese yen was the focus of the foreign exchange market this period. Even with repeated warnings from the Bank of Japan regarding intervention in the foreign exchange market, it failed to curb short-selling enthusiasm, with speculators continuing to increase their short positions in the yen. Currently, net short positions in yen futures have increased to 115,000 contracts, a 22-month high, corresponding to approximately $9 billion in funds. Looking at the position structure, total short positions in yen futures remain high, while long positions have not significantly decreased, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears. However, overall bearish sentiment is nearing a temporary peak.
Looking back at market movements, Japan's Ministry of Finance previously intervened in the market, causing the USD/JPY pair to plummet by 500 points within an hour. The pair has since recovered most of its losses. Currently, USD/JPY is only 40 basis points away from the key intervention level of 160, a price level widely recognized as a red line for Japanese intervention. This week, exchange rate volatility risk has increased significantly, and investors need to closely monitor the actions of Japan's Ministry of Finance.
2. Euro and Pound Sterling: Positions remained stable with limited volatility.
Overall positioning in the euro against the US dollar remained largely unchanged, with large speculators holding 29,400 net long euro contracts and asset management firms maintaining a substantial net long position of 270,000 contracts, indicating no significant shift in market sentiment. The pound also traded flat, with traders only slightly reducing their net short pound contracts by approximately 4,000 contracts, suggesting a generally neutral overall sentiment.
3. USD/CHF: Short selling subsides, negative factors ease.
The bearish sentiment towards the Swiss franc has cooled somewhat, with large speculators and asset management institutions reducing their net short positions in Swiss francs by a total of 3,700 contracts. Short positions have fallen, indicating that the short-term negative factors have been fully priced in.
4. Australian Dollar: Profit-taking by bulls slows the upward momentum.
The Australian dollar had previously experienced a strong rally, leading to a concentrated sell-off at higher levels. Large speculators and asset management institutions collectively reduced their net long positions in the Australian dollar by 46,000 contracts, primarily by closing out long positions, quickly cooling the bullish sentiment.
5. USD/CAD: Short sellers aggressively increased their positions, plunging the Canadian dollar into a deep downward spiral.
The Canadian dollar was the worst-performing major non-US dollar currency this period. Large speculators nearly doubled their net long positions in USD/CAD, increasing to 69,000 contracts; the market's net short positions in the Canadian dollar surged by 37,600 contracts in a single week, marking the strongest weekly bearish move in nearly two years and placing it among the most volatile weekly markets in the past eight years. Asset management institutions also turned net short on the Canadian dollar for the first time in six weeks, with their short positions reaching a new high for the year.
It's worth noting that this round of short-selling in the Canadian dollar occurred before Canada officially announced a technical recession and a significant increase in the fiscal deficit, reflecting the market's pessimistic expectations for the Canadian dollar. Currently, speculators and asset management institutions are simultaneously increasing their short positions and reducing their long positions, turning entirely into a net short position. Coupled with the continued decline in Canadian dollar futures prices and the continuous rise in total market open interest, new short positions are constantly entering the market, making buying USD/CAD on dips the mainstream trading strategy. From a purely technical perspective, the USD/CAD daily chart shows a reversal signal at a high level, and the Canadian dollar futures weekly chart closed with a doji, suggesting a possible slight pullback in the short term.
II. Commodities: Rising expectations of US-China peace talks lead to widespread sell-offs across all categories.
Driven by market optimism regarding a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, demand for safe-haven assets declined, leading to widespread liquidation and selling across commodities. While the trading period was shortened due to holidays, market volatility was significant: the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 4% in a single week, with only 6 of the 25 core commodity futures contracts tracked closing higher. The energy and agricultural sectors, two major weighted sectors, suffered heavy losses, falling by over 9% and 3.5% respectively, directly offsetting all gains in the industrial and precious metals sectors. Overall, only 3 of the 24 mainstream futures contracts did not experience net selling by asset management traders, with crude oil, natural gas, soybeans, corn, and live cattle leading the market decline.
1. Energy Sector: Crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive day, while natural gas short positions hit a two-year high.
Bullish sentiment in the crude oil market continues to collapse, with net long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil declining for the fourth consecutive week, currently down to 370,000 contracts, a two-month low. Compared to the peak in mid-March, current bullish positions have shrunk by one-third. This decline in crude oil long positions is driven by two factors: both investors actively closing long positions to take profits and new short positions entering the market: total long contracts decreased by 83,000, while total short contracts increased by 100,000. In addition, open interest in refined oil products is mixed, with no unified trend; bearish sentiment has erupted across the board in the natural gas market, with net short positions expanding to their highest level in two years.
2. Metals Sector: Precious metals showed resilience, while industrial copper harbors hidden downside risks.
The metals sector saw divergent trends: Gold prices repeatedly tested the 200-day moving average without success, indicating weakening bearish momentum. A slight covering of short positions helped stabilize gold prices. Silver and platinum, however, followed the overall commodity trend, experiencing net selling. Copper, one of the strongest performing industrial metals this week, rose against the trend, but long positions did not increase proportionally, with net long positions slightly declining. This was due to pressure from new short positions, casting doubt on the sustainability of its short-term gains.
3. Agriculture sector: Grain prices saw widespread profit-taking, with all categories generally weakening.
The pressure on agricultural products was mainly influenced by two factors: the decline in international energy prices and the continued improvement in weather conditions in US crop-growing areas. Amid these multiple positive factors, long positions were liquidated, with all six major grain and oilseed futures contracts seeing reductions in open interest. The industry's overall net long position decreased by 146,000 contracts in a single week, currently totaling 667,000 contracts; compared to the historical peak of 874,000 contracts three weeks ago, the decline is significant. In addition, soft commodities and livestock products also experienced a broad downturn, with sugar, previously surging cotton, and lean pork futures becoming the main targets of short selling.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
