Progress in US-Iran negotiations weakened safe-haven demand, and gold prices remained range-bound.
2026-06-23 09:22:40
Spot gold (XAU/USD) traded in a narrow range around $4,180 during Tuesday's Asian trading session. After a sharp rise triggered by tensions in the Middle East, the gold market is now in a wait-and-see phase, with investors closely watching the latest developments in the US-Iran peace talks and changes in the global monetary policy outlook.
U.S. Vice President Vance said on Monday that the U.S. and Iran had made "significant progress" in talks being held in Burgenstock, Switzerland. He revealed that discussions are ongoing and Iran has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to re-enter the country to conduct inspections. These remarks boosted market expectations for a de-escalation of regional tensions and reduced some demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Previously, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's military action against Lebanon, arguing that the action violated the ceasefire agreement, causing market concerns that global energy transportation would be further disrupted. It is worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport , and any news regarding this shipping route can quickly impact international energy markets and the price performance of safe-haven assets.
However, market analysts believe that despite some progress in peace negotiations, disagreements remain between the two sides on several key issues. The future trend of energy prices will continue to be a significant variable affecting the gold market. Some analysts point out that if the negotiation process is protracted, crude oil prices may regain support, thereby boosting inflation expectations and providing a short-term boost to gold.
Meanwhile, expectations for Federal Reserve policy are shifting significantly. Following last week's policy meeting, newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his first monetary policy meeting, expressed caution regarding inflation and emphasized that maintaining price stability remains the top priority. Market interpretations suggest that the Fed is unlikely to ease its policy stance in the short term, and there is even a possibility of further tightening of monetary conditions.
As a result, US Treasury yields remained high, and the US dollar index remained relatively strong. Since gold itself does not generate interest income, its attractiveness is typically diminished when market interest rates rise. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now expect the probability of a Fed rate hike in December to have risen to approximately 89% , a significant increase from 61% before last week's policy meeting, reflecting a repricing of the market's expectations regarding future policy paths.
From a fund flow perspective, safe-haven funds are awaiting further signals regarding the Middle East situation and US economic data. In the coming days, US inflation indicators, the performance of the job market, and changes in energy prices will remain crucial factors determining the next phase of gold's price movement. If oil prices rise again due to geopolitical risks, gold may regain buying support; conversely, if US-Iran relations continue to improve and the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, gold prices may face further downward pressure.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a high-level consolidation pattern on the daily chart. The price is currently trading above the major moving average system, and the medium-to-long-term uptrend remains intact, although recent upward momentum has slowed. While the MACD indicator remains above the zero line, the red histogram bars are contracting, indicating a significant weakening of bullish strength compared to the previous period. Key resistance levels to watch are $4225 and $4260 ; a decisive break above these levels could lead to a retest of historical highs. On the downside, support levels to watch are $4150 and $4100 ; a breach of these levels could trigger a deeper correction.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold has entered a short-term consolidation phase. The MACD lines are gradually approaching the zero line, indicating that the market's directional signal is still unclear. The price is currently fluctuating around $4190, with a relatively balanced force between bulls and bears. If it can hold above $4200 , it may open up further upside potential; however, if it breaks below the $4150 support level, a retest of the $4100 or even $4050 area cannot be ruled out. Overall, gold is currently more inclined to wait for new fundamental catalysts to emerge before choosing a breakout direction.
Editor's Summary : Progress in US-Iran negotiations has somewhat eased market risk aversion, but regional uncertainties remain, and gold's safe-haven appeal has not completely faded from market attention. Meanwhile, rapidly rising expectations of a Fed rate hike are becoming a significant factor suppressing gold prices. In the short term, gold may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern, repeatedly oscillating between geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. Investors should pay close attention to subsequent US inflation data, speeches by Fed officials, and developments in the Middle East, as these factors may determine whether gold can resume its upward trend or enter a larger-scale correction cycle.
U.S. Vice President Vance said on Monday that the U.S. and Iran had made "significant progress" in talks being held in Burgenstock, Switzerland. He revealed that discussions are ongoing and Iran has agreed to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to re-enter the country to conduct inspections. These remarks boosted market expectations for a de-escalation of regional tensions and reduced some demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Previously, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's military action against Lebanon, arguing that the action violated the ceasefire agreement, causing market concerns that global energy transportation would be further disrupted. It is worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport , and any news regarding this shipping route can quickly impact international energy markets and the price performance of safe-haven assets.
However, market analysts believe that despite some progress in peace negotiations, disagreements remain between the two sides on several key issues. The future trend of energy prices will continue to be a significant variable affecting the gold market. Some analysts point out that if the negotiation process is protracted, crude oil prices may regain support, thereby boosting inflation expectations and providing a short-term boost to gold.
Meanwhile, expectations for Federal Reserve policy are shifting significantly. Following last week's policy meeting, newly appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his first monetary policy meeting, expressed caution regarding inflation and emphasized that maintaining price stability remains the top priority. Market interpretations suggest that the Fed is unlikely to ease its policy stance in the short term, and there is even a possibility of further tightening of monetary conditions.
As a result, US Treasury yields remained high, and the US dollar index remained relatively strong. Since gold itself does not generate interest income, its attractiveness is typically diminished when market interest rates rise. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors now expect the probability of a Fed rate hike in December to have risen to approximately 89% , a significant increase from 61% before last week's policy meeting, reflecting a repricing of the market's expectations regarding future policy paths.
From a fund flow perspective, safe-haven funds are awaiting further signals regarding the Middle East situation and US economic data. In the coming days, US inflation indicators, the performance of the job market, and changes in energy prices will remain crucial factors determining the next phase of gold's price movement. If oil prices rise again due to geopolitical risks, gold may regain buying support; conversely, if US-Iran relations continue to improve and the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, gold prices may face further downward pressure.
From a technical perspective, gold remains in a high-level consolidation pattern on the daily chart. The price is currently trading above the major moving average system, and the medium-to-long-term uptrend remains intact, although recent upward momentum has slowed. While the MACD indicator remains above the zero line, the red histogram bars are contracting, indicating a significant weakening of bullish strength compared to the previous period. Key resistance levels to watch are $4225 and $4260 ; a decisive break above these levels could lead to a retest of historical highs. On the downside, support levels to watch are $4150 and $4100 ; a breach of these levels could trigger a deeper correction.
From a 4-hour chart perspective, gold has entered a short-term consolidation phase. The MACD lines are gradually approaching the zero line, indicating that the market's directional signal is still unclear. The price is currently fluctuating around $4190, with a relatively balanced force between bulls and bears. If it can hold above $4200 , it may open up further upside potential; however, if it breaks below the $4150 support level, a retest of the $4100 or even $4050 area cannot be ruled out. Overall, gold is currently more inclined to wait for new fundamental catalysts to emerge before choosing a breakout direction.
Editor's Summary : Progress in US-Iran negotiations has somewhat eased market risk aversion, but regional uncertainties remain, and gold's safe-haven appeal has not completely faded from market attention. Meanwhile, rapidly rising expectations of a Fed rate hike are becoming a significant factor suppressing gold prices. In the short term, gold may maintain a high-level consolidation pattern, repeatedly oscillating between geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. Investors should pay close attention to subsequent US inflation data, speeches by Fed officials, and developments in the Middle East, as these factors may determine whether gold can resume its upward trend or enter a larger-scale correction cycle.
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