Fueled by news of a potential US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar index rebounded strongly, posting its best single-day performance in nearly three weeks. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and growing tensions directly drove a surge in international commodity prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing its largest single-day increase since 2020. This dramatic volatility in the energy market has thoroughly shaken global financial markets. The current strengthening of the US dollar is supported by multiple positive factors, and is not driven by a single factor. On the one hand, after the outbreak of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, global risk aversion sentiment rapidly intensified, and the US dollar, with its attributes as a global reserve currency, became the core safe-haven asset in the market, with a large influx of funds pushing up the dollar's value. On the other hand, as a net exporter of energy commodities, the US has seen a significant rise in international oil prices, further benefiting the US economic fundamentals and indirectly providing strong support for the dollar's performance. Based on this, market expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve have been continuously strengthened, and industry insiders generally predict that the Fed may tighten monetary policy again at its policy meeting later this month. These multiple positive factors have combined to help the dollar continue to strengthen. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently delivered a significant speech on monetary policy, releasing a clear hawkish signal. He publicly expressed concern about the renewed acceleration of core inflation in the US, emphasizing that inflation stickiness has not yet subsided and the risk of price rebounds cannot be ignored. Waller explicitly stated that if the upcoming June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirms continued high core inflation, the Federal Reserve has every reason and sufficient grounds to decisively raise interest rates in July to curb inflation rebounds through tightening monetary policy. This hawkish public statement has completely rewritten market expectations for interest rate hikes: the market probability of two Fed rate hikes in 2026 has jumped to 58%, and the probability of a rate hike later this month has risen to 43%. The rapid rise in expectations for monetary policy tightening has directly driven the dollar exchange rate to continue to strengthen, and US Treasury yields have risen in tandem, ushering in a new round of adjustments to the global dollar asset pricing system. The current macroeconomic environment is extremely unfavorable for gold, and a downward pressure on gold prices has already taken shape. As a non-interest-bearing safe-haven asset, gold itself does not generate any interest income. In a cycle of Fed rate hikes and continuously rising market interest rates, it is completely unable to compete with interest-bearing assets such as government bonds and money market funds, resulting in a significant decline in its investment attractiveness. Meanwhile, the opportunity cost of holding gold continues to rise, leading many investors to reduce their gold holdings in pursuit of higher and more stable returns. This has directly resulted in a large-scale outflow of funds from gold ETFs, a key driver of the recent gold price decline and continued weakness. Market data shows that international spot gold experienced its second-largest single-day drop since 2026 on Monday, with short-selling pressure concentrated and the market extremely weak. To date, the year-to-date decline in gold prices has exceeded 7%, and annual losses continue to widen. However, there are still optimistic voices in the market. Bullish institutions, represented by State Street Investment Management, a globally renowned asset management firm, point out that physical gold demand in the Asian market remains stable, with jewelry, industrial, and central bank gold purchases providing some bottom support for gold prices. Institutions predict that if gold prices further decline to the $3,900 per ounce level, it will trigger a concentrated influx of bargain hunters, driving a rebound and recovery. This price level may become a key bottom range for this round of gold price adjustments. From a core perspective, gold's future price movement is entirely dependent on two key variables: changes in the global geopolitical situation and the US June CPI inflation data. If the June core inflation data exceeds expectations again, it will solidify the Fed's short-term rate hike logic, further strengthening the dollar and pushing up US Treasury yields. Gold will then face double downward pressure, further exacerbating its downside risks. Conversely, if inflation data cools and rate hike expectations subside, gold may have a chance to recover. Furthermore, the market needs to pay close attention to the congressional testimony of the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Since taking office, Warsh's policy statements have twice triggered significant volatility in global financial markets, profoundly impacting commodities, foreign exchange, and bond markets. Whether it was his hawkish remarks at the June FOMC press conference or his ambiguous, tightening-oriented statements at the ECB's Sintra Forum, both triggered sharp fluctuations in gold prices, resulting in a volatile rollercoaster ride. This congressional testimony may release a new round of monetary policy signals, likely dominating gold's short-term price movement once again.