Spot silver (XAG/USD) continued its rebound in Asian trading on Monday, rising to around $56.80 per ounce, marking its second consecutive day of gains. However, given the recent rapid rise in oil prices and expectations of a tightening Federal Reserve policy, silver's further upside potential faces certain challenges. As a precious metal, silver possesses both financial and industrial attributes; its price is not only influenced by safe-haven demand but is also highly sensitive to real interest rates and the dollar's performance. The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has fueled market risk aversion, providing some support for silver. However, inflationary pressures stemming from rising energy prices are reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even further tighten policy. The US launched attacks on Iranian targets for the ninth consecutive night. Iran stated that the previous ceasefire agreement had essentially failed, raising market concerns that the regional conflict could further impact key energy transport routes. As the situation escalates, market risks have spread from the military sphere to the energy and infrastructure sectors. Recent missile and drone attacks in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Iraq have affected some bridges, power facilities, and port facilities. Kuwait Oil Corporation confirmed that one of its oil facilities was attacked over the weekend, further reinforcing market concerns about energy supply risks. Rising crude oil prices have become a significant factor influencing silver prices. Rising energy costs could drive global inflation back up, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its tight monetary policy. Although inflationary pressures had previously eased, rising oil prices could alter market assessments of future policy paths. Currently, the market estimates a 61.4% probability of the Fed adjusting interest rates in September. While the market generally expects the Fed to maintain stable interest rates at its upcoming meeting, investors are reassessing future policy direction. Recent speeches by Fed officials have also reinforced a hawkish tone. Some officials emphasized that current inflationary pressures remain widespread, and energy prices, supply chain costs, and certain structural factors may slow the decline in inflation. This policy environment typically favors the US dollar and increases the holding cost of silver, a non-interest-bearing asset. The US dollar's performance has a particularly significant impact on silver. If the US dollar index continues to strengthen due to safe-haven flows, it may limit silver's upside potential; however, if the market refocuses on global economic growth pressures and safe-haven funds flow back into precious metals, it could provide support for silver. Furthermore, silver's own industrial demand is also a key focus for the market. Expectations of a global manufacturing recovery, energy transition needs, and changes in industrial investment will all affect the medium- to long-term supply and demand structure of silver. Currently, the main market contradiction remains concentrated on its financial attributes, namely real interest rates and the direction of the US dollar. In the short term, the silver market is in a phase of balancing safe-haven demand and high interest rate pressure. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, silver may continue to receive support; however, if rising oil prices further drive a hawkish shift in the Fed's policy expectations, it may limit further price increases. From a daily chart perspective, silver has recently maintained a slightly bullish trend, with prices returning to the area above $56, indicating a recovery in short-term bullish momentum. Currently, the key resistance area to watch is $57.50 to $58.00. A successful break above this level could lead to a further test of the $60.00 psychological level. Support levels to watch are first around $56.00, then $54.50 and the $53.00 area. Technically, the MACD maintains a bullish structure, but upward momentum has slowed. The RSI is at a relatively high level, indicating some short-term downward pressure. Looking at the 4-hour chart, silver prices maintain an upward trend, with short-term moving averages continuing to provide support, but prices have entered a period of consolidation after approaching the previous resistance area. The RSI is in a neutral-to-strong position, indicating that buying pressure remains dominant, but the buying power has weakened. A break above $57.50 could open up further upside potential in the short term; a break below $56.00 could lead to a technical correction, with a target around $54.50. The 4-hour chart currently leans bullish, but market direction will depend on the dollar's performance and changes in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Editor's Summary : Silver is currently influenced by two forces: on the one hand, escalating tensions in the Middle East are boosting safe-haven demand, providing support for precious metals; on the other hand, rising oil prices and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve are increasing the risk of rising real interest rates, putting downward pressure on silver. In the short term, the upward trend in silver has not been completely broken, but further gains require breaking through key resistance levels. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, silver may receive more support from safe-haven funds; if the market re-emphasizes expectations of high interest rates, a stronger dollar may limit silver's performance. Going forward, investors need to pay close attention to Federal Reserve policy signals, changes in the dollar index, energy price trends, and the development of global risk events. Silver may find a new direction amidst high-level fluctuations.