The Middle East conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, with two of the world's most vital shipping routes simultaneously facing the threat of blockade. On July 20, the Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, a direct response to Saudi Arabia's nearly 12-year-long land, sea, and air blockade of Yemen. This decision extends the spillover effects of the US-Iran conflict from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which accounts for approximately 11% to 12% of global maritime and oil trade. With traffic in the Strait of Hormuz already reduced to about 10% of pre-war levels, the potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait means that two major Middle Eastern oil export routes could be simultaneously disrupted, putting approximately 30% of the world's seaborne oil at risk of obstruction.

I. Houthi Rebels Retaliate in an Eye-for-An-Eye Strike: A New Front Officially Opens in the Red Sea

On July 20, local time, Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarreya announced in a statement via Al-Masirah TV that a maritime blockade would be imposed immediately on the evil Saudi enemies, based on the principle of "an eye for an eye." The statement said this was a response to Saudi Arabia's nearly 12-year-long comprehensive land, sea, and air blockade of Yemen, and the recent airstrikes on Sana'a International Airport were the direct trigger for this measure. Sarreya explicitly warned in the statement: "Any foolish actions by the reckless Saudi enemies in response to the escalation of the situation will invite a full and decisive escalation of the counterattack." The statement did not specify the exact scope or method of the blockade, but Houthi leaders had previously warned that if Saudi Arabia continued its attacks on Yemen, the group was prepared to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait , claiming this could cause oil prices to soar to $200 per barrel. This blockade announcement comes as the long-standing stalemate in Yemen's conflict has suddenly escalated. Previously, the Yemeni government launched precision strikes on the runway of Sana'a International Airport, which is controlled by the Houthis, claiming it was aimed at preventing an Iranian Mahan Air passenger plane from landing without permission. The Houthi rebels blamed the attack on Saudi Arabia and launched a missile at an airport in the southern Saudi city of Abha last Monday.

II. The Saudi-led coalition responded swiftly, combining military escort with diplomatic condemnation.

In response to the Houthi maritime embargo, the Saudi-led coalition acted swiftly. Coalition spokesman Turki al-Maliki issued a statement on July 20, saying that the coalition command had begun measures to protect the safe passage of member state vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and that the coalition would respond "swiftly and decisively" to any threats posed by the Houthis. Maliki stated that the coalition was taking all necessary military actions and stringent measures to ensure the safe navigation of coalition vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and that these actions were in accordance with international law and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The coalition also accused the Houthi blockade of being a "lie" fabricated to escalate actions against the Yemeni government and neighboring countries. The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the same day condemning the Houthi accusations against Saudi Arabia and the maritime embargo, stating that Saudi Arabia would take all necessary measures to protect its vessels in accordance with international law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

III. Another crisis hits the Strait of Hormuz: oil tanker attacked, traffic volume plummets to rock bottom.

As tensions escalate in the Red Sea, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to worsen. On July 20, the UK's Office for Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile and caught fire approximately 8 nautical miles northwest of Qomzal, Oman, in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew had safely abandoned ship and been rescued by a tugboat, but the fire was still burning and the vessel was adrift. On the same day, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement claiming that two oil tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz via an "unsafe" route had exploded and lost power. The IRGC accused the two tankers of being "instigated and coerced" by the US military into choosing an "unsafe" route against Iranian instructions. The IRGC also warned that as long as the US continues its attacks on Iran, "not a single drop of oil or gas" will be able to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data confirms the severity of the situation. Data from Clarkson Research shows that the average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was only 10 vessels between March and May 2026. While it briefly recovered to approximately 45 vessels after the ceasefire, traffic plummeted again as the conflict escalated. Data from UBS Evidence Lab shows that only one oil and gas tanker passed through the strait in the Gulf on the latest day. Data from international market services firm Kepler shows that only 13 merchant ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on July 16, approximately one-tenth of the pre-war average.

IV. US Airstrikes on Iran: The Tenth Night of Strikes and Domestic Political Pressure

The US military operation against Iran continues. On July 20, the US Central Command issued a statement saying that, following President Trump's instructions, the US military had begun its tenth consecutive night of attacks on Iran, aimed at further weakening Iran's military capabilities to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. On the evening of July 19, after arriving at Joint Base Andrews, President Trump told the media that the US military was conducting a "heavy bombing" campaign against Iran to avenge the three US military personnel killed in the Middle East. Trump posted on Truth Social: "Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they pay many times over! This directive has been communicated to Secretary of War Hergsays, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane, and all military leaders." Since the start of the war on February 28, 17 US service members have been killed. With the war continuing and Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, gasoline prices in the US have continued to rise, and Trump is facing increasing domestic political pressure. Iran, on the other hand, continues to retaliate. Iranian state television reported that the Iranian military had used surface-to-surface missiles to attack US missile systems at the Arifjan base in Kuwait. Mohsen Rezaei, military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, previously stated that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is now defunct, and that if the US continues to launch attacks, the Iranian armed forces will enter a phase of "full-scale offensive and destruction."

V. The Strategic Value of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and its Impact on Global Energy

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is a vital waterway linking the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans, often referred to as a "water corridor" connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa. According to Qatari sources, maritime trade passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait accounts for 11% of global maritime trade; further data shows it handles approximately 12% of global oil trade. Global maritime crude oil trade accounts for about 8% to 12% of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with an average daily transport of approximately 7 to 9 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Amidst shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia has shifted its crude oil exports to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Data from Signar Ocean Company shows that around July 13th, crude oil loadings at Yanbu Port on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast reached an average of 4.7 million barrels per day, nearly 40% higher than the 3.36 million barrels per day around July 10th. Since June, Yanbu Port's average daily crude oil loadings have exceeded 4 million barrels, compared to only 973,000 barrels per day during the same period last year. Saudi Arabia transports crude oil from the eastern Persian Gulf oil-producing region to the port of Yanbu via an east-west pipeline with a peak daily capacity of 7 million barrels. Analysts warn that if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz are simultaneously blocked, it would disrupt two major Middle Eastern oil export routes, putting approximately 30% of global seaborne oil at risk of disruption. Influenced by multiple factors, WTI crude oil futures settled up 0.9% on July 20th at $83.23 per barrel.

VI. Diplomatic efforts continue: A 10-day ceasefire proposal emerges.

Despite the escalating military confrontation, diplomatic channels have not been completely closed. A senior Iranian official stated on July 20 that Iran had received a 10-day ceasefire proposal from mediators, aimed at salvaging the previously reached interim agreement and paving the way for a long-term agreement to end the war. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae confirmed at a press conference that day that Iran had received the proposal from the US and Iranian mediators, but declined to provide specific details. Baghae stated that both negotiation and war are means to achieve objectives, and the notion that "defense and diplomacy cannot coexist" is incorrect. Furthermore, Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni requested Pakistan to resume its mediating role in the conflict and subsequently arrived in Islamabad to continue consultations. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and the UAE Foreign Minister, in a previous phone call, also emphasized that the US and Iran must immediately cease fire and resume negotiations. However, diplomatic efforts face numerous obstacles. Iran accuses the US of violating the memorandum of understanding, leading to Iranian countermeasures; the US, in turn, blames Iran, claiming it violated the memorandum by firing on merchant ships. This mutual accusation makes the prospects for a ceasefire highly uncertain.

Editor's Summary

The Middle East conflict is evolving from a single battlefield into a multi-front geopolitical crisis. The Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia's territorial waters has brought the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to the forefront, creating a "dual-strait blockade" effect with the ongoing stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Current traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to about one-tenth of pre-war levels, while an effective blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would directly impact approximately 11% to 12% of global maritime and oil trade. Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port's daily crude oil exports of 4.7 million barrels (nearly four times the previous year) are highly dependent on the smooth flow of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Militarily, the unprecedented escalation of tensions on three fronts—the US airstrikes on Iran for the tenth consecutive night, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's attack on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthi declaration of a blockade of the Red Sea—is noteworthy. Diplomatically, while a 10-day ceasefire proposal has been put on the table, the mutual accusations and lack of trust between the two sides have dimmed the prospects for negotiations. The Trump administration faces political pressure from rising domestic gasoline prices, while Iran faces the dual predicament of economic sanctions and potential military strikes. If a "blockade of both straits" becomes a reality, international oil prices could face a sharp upward risk; conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough bringing a glimmer of hope for a ceasefire could provide the market with some breathing room. In the coming days, whether the mediators' ceasefire proposals can be translated into substantive negotiations will be a key variable determining the direction of the Middle East situation and global energy prices.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Why did the Houthis impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia? A: The Houthis claim this action is based on the "an eye for an eye" principle, responding to Saudi Arabia's nearly 12-year-long land, sea, and air blockade of Yemen. The immediate trigger was the recent airstrike on Sana'a International Airport, which the Houthis blamed on Saudi Arabia. A deeper background is that Iran, through its ally the Houthis, is opening a new front in the Red Sea to divert US military pressure from the Strait of Hormuz. Q2: What does the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait mean for the global energy market? A: The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, handling approximately 11% to 12% of global maritime and oil trade. With the Strait of Hormuz already nearly closed, Saudi Arabia exports crude oil (4.7 million barrels per day) through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also blocked, two major Middle Eastern oil export routes will be simultaneously disrupted, and approximately 30% of global seaborne oil will face the risk of obstruction. Tankers will be forced to round the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, increasing the voyage by 7 to 14 days and significantly raising logistics costs. Q3: What is the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz? A: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to about one-tenth of pre-war levels. The temporary ceasefire and navigation arrangements reached in June have essentially failed, with traffic reduced to about 10 to 20 ships per day. Latest data shows that only one oil and gas carrier passes through the strait daily. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has explicitly warned that as long as the US continues its attacks on Iran, "not a single drop of oil or gas" will be able to pass safely through the strait. Q4: Is there any possibility of a ceasefire between the US and Iran? A: Diplomatic channels are not completely closed. The mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to Iran, aiming to restore the implementation of the memorandum of understanding reached last month. The Iranian Foreign Ministry has confirmed receiving the proposal. However, both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement—Iran claims the US violated its commitments, leading to its countermeasures, while the US accuses Iran of firing on merchant ships. The military advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader has stated that the memorandum of understanding is "dead in name only." Q5: How high will oil prices rise as a result? A: WTI crude oil closed at $83.23 per barrel on July 20, up 0.9%. Houthi leaders had warned that closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could cause oil prices to surge to $200 per barrel. Analysts point out that if both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are blocked simultaneously, global crude oil supply will decrease by about 7% to 10%. Coupled with the supply disruptions caused by the previous Gulf War, oil prices face a significant upward risk. However, if the 10-day ceasefire proposal progresses, oil prices may give back some of their gains. As of 07:48 Beijing time, WTI crude oil is currently trading at $82.56 per barrel.