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2026-02-16 16:36:05
[Government Bond Yield Matrix: US, UK, and Australia Continue to Lead, Germany, France, and Japan Remain at Low Levels] ⑴ As of Monday, the divergence in global 10-year benchmark government bond yields continued. The US yield was 4.052%, followed by the UK at 4.411% and Australia at 4.719%, continuing to lead; Germany at 2.750%, France at 3.330%, and Italy at 3.352% were in the middle; Japan at 2.206% remained at the bottom. ⑵ Using Germany as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +196.9bp, UK +166.0bp, US +130.2bp; Japan -54.4bp, Denmark -13.9bp, and Sweden -9.0bp. ⑶ Using the US as a benchmark, the 10-year yield spread showed: Australia +66.7bp, UK +35.9bp; other major economies were all negative, with Japan -184.6bp, Denmark -144.1bp, Sweden -139.2bp, and Germany -130.2bp. (4) The 2-year yield also showed significant divergence. The US yield was 3.418%, the UK 3.582%, and Australia 4.220%; Germany 2.037%, France 2.161%, Italy 2.107%; and Japan 1.259%. (5) Using Germany as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +218.3bp, UK +154.5bp, and US +138.1bp; Japan -77.8bp, Denmark -15.9bp, and Sweden -15.8bp. (6) Using the US as a benchmark, the 2-year yield spread was: Australia +80.2bp, UK +16.4bp; Canada -93.5bp, and other major economies all above -120bp, including Japan -215.9bp, Denmark -154.0bp, Sweden -153.9bp, and Germany -138.1bp. (7) From the yield matrix, the UK, US, and Australia continue to have high interest rates, reflecting the market's continued pricing in inflation and policy tightening; while the Eurozone and Japan remain relatively low, reflecting expectations of easing and weak economies. The interest rate differential structure shows that US dollar assets still have a significant premium relative to Eurozone and Japanese yen, while the British pound and Australian dollar maintain their status as high-yield currencies. (8) Looking ahead, attention needs to be paid to the divergence in the policy paths of central banks around the world. If the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates for longer, the interest rate differential advantage of US Treasuries relative to Eurozone and Japanese yen may further widen; conversely, if Eurozone and Japanese yen unexpectedly reverse course, the current interest rate differential pattern will face reshaping.
