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2026-02-20 15:36:39
[US-Iran Showdown looms, oil market senses tension] ⑴ The sudden escalation of tensions between the US and Iran is dominating short-term sentiment in the crude oil market. With the US setting a deadline for nuclear negotiations and Iran conducting joint military exercises with Russia and closing the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns about conflict have intensified. On Friday, oil prices climbed to a six-month high and are on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks. ⑵ The strategic waterway faces the risk of blockade, directly impacting supply expectations. Approximately 20% of global crude oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If conflict breaks out in the region, the channel for crude oil to enter the global market could be blocked, becoming the core logic behind bullish bets. Analysts point out that although investors are still debating whether supply will actually be disrupted, geopolitical premiums have once again become the main driver of the market. ⑶ On the supply side, fundamental data provides additional support. Latest data shows a significant decrease of 9 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, mainly due to increased refinery utilization and exports. Meanwhile, discussions within OPEC+ favoring a resumption of production increases starting in April are interacting with the bullish factors brought about by the current tensions. (4) However, macroeconomic pressures limited further upside potential for oil prices. The market is focused on the interest rate path of the world's largest oil consumer. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggested that if inflation persists, interest rates may be maintained or even raised further, which could suppress medium- to long-term demand. Institutional views indicate that the supply glut that began in the second half of 2025 continued in January, and this trend is likely to continue. If demand fails to keep pace, the market will face a significant supply glut later this year, requiring substantial production cuts to prevent a large increase in inventories. In the short term, geopolitics plays a role; in the long term, the balance of supply and demand matters. The game for oil prices is far from over.
