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2026-02-20 16:13:22
[Global Bond Markets Show Stark Contrasts: Yield Spreads Reveal New Patterns in Capital Flows] ⑴ Taking the US as a benchmark, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.077%, high among major global government bonds. It has a positive yield spread of 134 basis points with German bonds and a significant spread of 196.5 basis points with Japanese bonds, highlighting the continued attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets for yield-seeking funds. Only Australia and the UK have higher yields than the US, at 4.741% and 4.351% respectively. ⑵ The contrast in short-term interest rates is even more pronounced. The US 2-year yield is 3.476%, 142.7 basis points higher than Germany's and a staggering 221.8 basis points higher than Japan's. This extreme divergence in short-term yield spreads reflects significant differences in market pricing of central bank policy paths, with the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance contrasting sharply with the easing expectations of other major central banks. ⑶ Observing the internal landscape of Europe through Germany reveals a different picture. The 10-year German bond yield is 2.735%, while Southern European countries such as Italy and Spain have premiums of 61 basis points and 36.7 basis points respectively, indicating that the market is still pricing in certain risk differences. The 57.2 basis point spread in French government bond yields also reflects investors' continued focus on the fiscal conditions of core European countries. (4) It is worth noting the independent trend of UK government bonds. Whether at the short or long end, UK bond yields are significantly higher than those of major European and American economies. The 2-year UK bond still has an 8.7 basis point premium over US Treasuries, and the 10-year premium is as high as 161.6 basis points. This reflects the market's unique pricing of UK inflation stickiness and central bank policy, creating a unique high-yield position in the global bond market. A global capital reallocation is quietly unfolding amidst these interest rate spread changes.
