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[BMO Strongly Promises Bullish Logic for Gold, Sounds Caution for Silver] ⑴ BMO Capital Markets has clearly shifted its bullish stance on gold. Commodity analyst Helen Amos stated that the frequent geopolitical flashpoints since January have prompted institutions to significantly shift their risk assessment of gold prices from the baseline scenario to a bullish scenario. According to BMO's calculations, gold prices could approach $6,500 by the end of 2026 and further rise to $8,600 by the end of 2027. ⑵ Multiple macroeconomic variables are converging and resonating. Amos pointed out that emerging market momentum, the trend of deglobalization, and the theme of de-dollarization are systemically beneficial to precious metals. Meanwhile, strong and stable retail and investment demand allows gold prices to quickly form solid bottoms after each correction, which is an important basis for the bullish logic. ⑶ BMO's pricing model reveals the core drivers of gold prices. Central bank gold purchases, gold ETF inflows, the US dollar index, and the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are the main variables explaining gold's performance. If investment demand continues at its current strength in the coming years, coupled with continued inflows from central banks and ETFs, it's not difficult for gold prices to reach higher levels. (4) In contrast, the outlook for silver is unsettling for institutions. Amos frankly admits to feeling uncomfortable with the current state of silver, with the gold-silver ratio being a key indicator. Silver is essentially closer to an industrial metal, and the supply and demand in the spot market may be shifting from tight to loose. Global solar energy installation growth may have peaked, which is an important industrial consumption scenario for silver. (5) Speculative factors have exacerbated the volatility risk of silver. From December last year to January this year, retail investors excessively chased the market based on the narrative of currency devaluation, coupled with a large amount of speculative funds and options trading pushing up prices, resulting in exceptionally sharp short-term fluctuations in silver. As the market has fallen back, silver has returned to reality, but the previous sharp fluctuations have not helped solidify its market reputation as a safe-haven asset. (6) The divergence in BMO's strategies is worth noting. Gold has gained a clear upward bias, supported by rising geopolitical risks, the continuation of the de-dollarization narrative, and demand from central banks and investment. Silver, however, may find it more difficult to replicate gold's upward trend in the short term if the physical market eases. Institutions recommend remaining in the metals and mining sector, but caution is advised regarding silver.