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[US Q4 GDP Revised Sharply Down to 1.4%, Dragged Down by Government Shutdown and Slowing Consumption] ⑴ US economic growth slowed more than expected in the fourth quarter. Data released Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the annualized GDP growth rate for the last quarter was revised to 1.4%, far below market expectations of 3.0% and significantly lower than the 4.4% in the third quarter. This belated data was delayed due to the record 43-day government shutdown. ⑵ The government shutdown was one of the main factors dragging down growth. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that reduced federal services, decreased spending on goods and services, and a temporary reduction in nutrition assistance benefits cost fourth-quarter GDP 1.5 percentage points. Most of the loss is expected to be recovered eventually, but $7 billion to $14 billion will remain unrecovered. ⑶ Consumption spending growth slowed significantly. From 3.5% in the third quarter to the current level, spending was mainly driven by high-income households, while inflation weakened purchasing power, forcing some households to maintain spending at the expense of savings. Before the data release, Trump stated on social media that the shutdown cost GDP at least two percentage points and called for lower interest rates. (4) The report reveals a structural divergence in the US economy, exhibiting jobless expansion and a K-shaped economic pattern: high-income households benefit from rising stock and asset prices, while low-income consumers struggle with tariff-driven inflation and stagnant wage growth, creating what economists call an affordability crisis. (5) The job market is weak. Only 181,000 jobs were added last year, the worst performance since the Great Recession of 2009, excluding the pandemic period, far below the 1.459 million added in 2024. This figure contrasts with GDP growth, reinforcing the narrative of a jobless recovery. (6) Despite weak fourth-quarter data, forces supporting the economy this year are building. Tax cuts are expected to bring more tax refunds, boosting consumer spending. AI-related investments are a structural bright spot, with AI investments, including data centers, semiconductors, software, and R&D, contributing about one-third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, partially offsetting the impact of tariffs and reduced immigration. (7) This outdated report has limited impact on current monetary policy. However, the economic divergence and growth quality issues it reveals will continue to be the focus of policy discussions and market attention.