Tonight (early morning of March 27th, Beijing time), crude oil futures continued their upward trend, with all energy commodities rising in overnight trading. This may seem like a normal market reaction to geopolitical risks; however, a closer look at the latest statements from the White House cabinet meeting and Iran's simultaneous response reveals that the real driving force behind this surge is far more direct and ironic than the superficial statement that "the war is still ongoing."



I believe the reason for tonight's surge in oil prices is that the US cabinet meeting indicated the negotiations weren't as optimistic as initially thought. Trump previously made a cryptic statement, saying, "They did something amazing yesterday. They gave us a gift, a priceless gift. I won't tell you what the gift is, but it's significant. It's about oil and gas, about oil shipping, about the Strait of Hormuz."

And the result? Ten ships passed through? Flying the Pakistani flag? This was clearly not a great gift. The passage of ten oil tankers neither changed the actual control of the strait nor eased the tensions in the global supply chain.

Secondly, the escalating conflict remains. Latest reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Defense is developing a "lethal strike" military plan against Iran, including invading or blockading Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub; attacking Larak Island, a strategic location used by Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz; seizing Abu Musa Island and two other small islands located at the western entrance to the strait; and blockading or seizing ships transporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran's Tasnim News Agency, citing military sources, stated tonight that Iran is fully prepared if the United States attempts to forcibly open the strait through a "suicide attack." They have mobilized over one million combat personnel, with large numbers of young people flocking to recruitment centers; they also declared that even if a ceasefire agreement is reached, if the core conditions are not met, "we will never let the Americans off the hook." The threat of a new front opening in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait further increases the risk of the conflict spilling over.

Furthermore, Tehran is currently being bombed. Trump also bluntly stated tonight that "getting oil is an option," implying he's in no hurry to end the war, yet he simultaneously claimed it would end in 4-6 weeks, which is puzzling.

The vast gap between Iran and the United States on preserving nuclear capabilities makes it difficult to believe that negotiations can make substantial progress. All we know is that the war continues, and the markets have once again been fooled by Trump.

The two sides have fundamental differences regarding nuclear capabilities: the United States demands that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment, shut down its facilities, and hand over all materials; Iran, on the other hand, insists on its "right to enrich." The 15-point ceasefire framework conveyed by Pakistan and other third parties remains at the stage of "under review by Iran," rather than "about to be reached." A senior Iranian official stated bluntly that Washington's proposal is "one-sided and unfair."

Another point worth mentioning is that Iranian oil exports have not collapsed. According to estimates from TankerTrackers and calculations based on crude oil prices, their daily oil revenue reached $139 million in March, nearly $25 million more than in February. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially controlled, with 26 ships having passed through Iran's control system. These facts remind the market that geopolitical premiums are unlikely to subside in the short term.

Tonight's oil price increase may be a collective correction by investors to the "disconnect between narrative and reality." What we are seeing now is still a stalemate, bombing, and mutual probing. The war continues. That is certain, at least tonight.