According to APP reports, despite recent significant selling pressure on spot gold , Goldman Sachs maintains its bullish view on gold and predicts that gold prices could resume their upward trend by the end of 2026, with a target of $5,400 per ounce . Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven emphasized in their latest report that the medium-term outlook for gold remains solid, primarily supported by continued gold purchases by central banks and the expected two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Currently, spot gold prices are hovering around $4,550 per ounce, down about 13%-14% from the historical high in January, but still within a high-level consolidation range.

Goldman Sachs' upward revision of its forecast is based on the accelerated diversification of global reserve management institutions. The report points out that if the Iranian conflict prompts countries to accelerate the reduction of their holdings of "traditional Western assets" and shift towards diversification, the upside potential for gold remains significant. Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven recently stated on this topic that private sector demand for hedging against macroeconomic policy risks has begun to materialize, competing with central bank gold purchases and jointly pushing up the central gold price. At the same time, the report clarifies that concerns about some central banks potentially selling gold to support their currencies are unlikely to materialize, and Gulf countries are more inclined to intervene in the exchange rate by reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds. Assuming no additional private sector investment, analysts expect medium-term price volatility to moderate, which will allow official gold purchases to accelerate again, averaging approximately 60 tons per month.

To more clearly illustrate the differences between Goldman Sachs' forecast and the current market scenario, the following table compares key scenarios for gold prices:

Data shows that, supported by buying from both central banks and the private sector, gold's medium-term rebound potential is significantly higher than its short-term volatility risk, highlighting its unique value as a diversified asset allocation tool.

Further analysis reveals that the current global macroeconomic environment offers multiple favorable conditions for gold . The expectation of further easing by the Federal Reserve, coupled with escalating geopolitical risks, has led central banks worldwide, especially major Asian countries, to consider gold a crucial component of their strategic reserves. This structural demand has not only mitigated short-term selling pressure but also solidified a long-term bottom for gold prices. Technically, while spot gold has undergone a period of adjustment, it has held key support levels, and indicators such as the RSI suggest that a rebound is gaining momentum after being oversold. If the energy supply shock does not worsen further, gold prices are expected to gradually return to an upward trajectory, catalyzed by favorable policies.
Editor's Summary : Goldman Sachs' medium-term bullish view on gold reflects long-term support from central bank gold purchases and asset diversification trends. While short-term selling may create tactical adjustment pressure, the dynamic balance between energy risks and policy easing provides a clear upward path for gold prices. Investors should continue to monitor central bank gold purchase data, the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and geopolitical developments to flexibly seize allocation opportunities in the precious metals market.