COT Commitment of Traders Weekly Report: Gold breaks below key support, commodity long positions continue to be liquidated.
2026-06-08 19:28:25
The weekly report shows the positions of large speculators and asset management firms in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures market, serving as a sentiment indicator for market analysis. Below is the COT positioning data released by the Commodity Exchange Commission (CEPC) as of Tuesday, June 3rd. There is a three-day lag between the report's release date and the actual positions recorded by traders. The report is released on Friday, but only contains data up to Tuesday. In terms of timing, it is more suitable for long-term traders.
This week's COT Commitment of Traders report showed that gold fell below its 200-day moving average on Friday, while agricultural commodities saw significant long liquidation. In the foreign exchange market, short positions in the yen rose to a record high, and long positions in the Australian dollar were also on the verge of a reversal. Meanwhile, net long positions in the US dollar rose to an eight-week high, and market expectations for a potential Fed rate hike are profoundly reshaping the landscape of various asset classes.
Foreign exchange market
Overall, as of the week ending June 3, long positions in IMM currency futures remained relatively stable, with a combined net long position of approximately $16.6 billion (or $15.6 billion according to another perspective) across eight major currencies, indicating that the dollar traded sideways. However, beneath this calm surface, significant fund rotation was evident. The euro, Swiss franc, and pound sterling received strong buying interest, while the yen, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar continued to face selling pressure.
The influx of dollar bulls slowed as the latest COT data was collected. However, while net long exposure increased by only $600 million, long positions have strengthened since the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls report and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report. By recent standards, a net long dollar exposure of $15.6 billion may seem high, but looking further back, long positions have exceeded $30 billion.
We need to closely monitor the dollar's performance around current levels. The dollar may be awaiting a potential bullish breakout unless expectations of a Fed rate hike reverse in some way, but that seems unlikely at present.
The pressure on the yen is most pronounced. Large speculators' net short positions in the yen have risen to a record high of approximately $10 billion; asset managers' short positions have reached a near three-and-a-half-year high. USD/JPY has broken through the 160 mark, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance has intervened verbally multiple times; the market is closely watching the timing of actual intervention. USD/JPY has a high chance of breaking new highs; the higher it rises and the faster it moves, the greater the likelihood of intervention.
Regarding the Canadian dollar, weak GDP and employment data triggered a new round of short selling, with large speculators' net short positions rising to a 25-week high, but not yet reaching extreme sentiment levels, which may provide support for USD/CAD bulls.
Regarding the Australian dollar, large speculators reduced their long positions by 24,000 contracts in a single week, with net long positions nearly turning negative. Asset managers' net long positions have also halved from the historical high two weeks ago. However, considering that the size of short positions is still relatively low, this round of decline is more of a long position liquidation than a trend reversal. The Australian dollar may still test the highs of the 1960s range.
Regarding the New Zealand dollar, short covering has occurred, with net short positions falling to a nine-week low. However, last week's close formed a bearish engulfing pattern and the dollar fell sharply from around $0.60. Short positions may rebound in the next report.
Gold: Breaks below key support
Since mid-April, gold prices have been on a downward trend due to inflation concerns stemming from energy-related factors. Better-than-expected US jobs data released last Friday, coupled with a general deterioration in risk sentiment, also impacted stock market performance. Consequently, gold prices fell below their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023.
Currently, strong economic growth, high inflation expectations, rising bond yields, a stronger dollar, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in 2026 have all contributed to an unfavorable situation for the gold market.
These factors have rendered the long-term bullish factors supporting gold prices—such as central bank gold purchases, fiscal debt issues, and geopolitical uncertainty—less significant. Attention is now focused on the support zone of $4,100 to $4,075. This area represents both the low of the March pullback and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022-2026 uptrend. From an uptrend perspective, resistance levels are likely at $4,432 (200-day moving average), $4,490 (recent high), and $4,635 (channel resistance).
Commodities
The most significant change in agricultural commodities this week came from widespread liquidation. Since hitting a four-year high last month, the combined net long position in 13 major agricultural futures contracts has nearly halved, with long positions in corn, soybeans, and wheat reduced by as much as two-thirds, with corn leading the decline. The Bloomberg Grain Index has fallen by about 12% from its high two and a half months ago, primarily due to harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and favorable growing conditions in U.S. corn and soybean producing regions, while speculative liquidation further amplified the decline.
The net short position in cocoa rose to 21,000 contracts, the largest since November 2022; the net long position in Arabica coffee fell to only 12,000 contracts, the lowest since December 2023; and lean pork turned net short for the first time in two years.
In the energy sector, the market continues to price in a potential easing of supply disruptions in the Middle East—a situation that could lead to a rapid release of substantial crude oil supplies from ships stranded in the Persian Gulf should the situation improve. As a result, net long positions in Brent crude have fallen to a four-month low of 253,000 contracts. In contrast, continued declines in U.S. crude inventories have provided support for WTI, thus keeping WTI demand relatively resilient.
COMEX high-grade copper (HG copper) saw net long positions rise to a more than five-year high, driven by tariff-related demand, but technically there is also the risk of profit-taking. Selling pressure intensified on Friday until buying re-entered near the key support level of around $6.15/lb. Silver, platinum, and palladium attracted relatively limited interest during the reporting week.
The latest report reaffirms that highly concentrated long positions in some markets make prices extremely vulnerable—once key technical levels are breached, selling pressure can quickly emerge in the following days.
This week's COT Commitment of Traders report showed that gold fell below its 200-day moving average on Friday, while agricultural commodities saw significant long liquidation. In the foreign exchange market, short positions in the yen rose to a record high, and long positions in the Australian dollar were also on the verge of a reversal. Meanwhile, net long positions in the US dollar rose to an eight-week high, and market expectations for a potential Fed rate hike are profoundly reshaping the landscape of various asset classes.
Foreign exchange market
Overall, as of the week ending June 3, long positions in IMM currency futures remained relatively stable, with a combined net long position of approximately $16.6 billion (or $15.6 billion according to another perspective) across eight major currencies, indicating that the dollar traded sideways. However, beneath this calm surface, significant fund rotation was evident. The euro, Swiss franc, and pound sterling received strong buying interest, while the yen, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar continued to face selling pressure.
The influx of dollar bulls slowed as the latest COT data was collected. However, while net long exposure increased by only $600 million, long positions have strengthened since the release of the latest nonfarm payrolls report and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report. By recent standards, a net long dollar exposure of $15.6 billion may seem high, but looking further back, long positions have exceeded $30 billion.
We need to closely monitor the dollar's performance around current levels. The dollar may be awaiting a potential bullish breakout unless expectations of a Fed rate hike reverse in some way, but that seems unlikely at present.
The pressure on the yen is most pronounced. Large speculators' net short positions in the yen have risen to a record high of approximately $10 billion; asset managers' short positions have reached a near three-and-a-half-year high. USD/JPY has broken through the 160 mark, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance has intervened verbally multiple times; the market is closely watching the timing of actual intervention. USD/JPY has a high chance of breaking new highs; the higher it rises and the faster it moves, the greater the likelihood of intervention.
Regarding the Canadian dollar, weak GDP and employment data triggered a new round of short selling, with large speculators' net short positions rising to a 25-week high, but not yet reaching extreme sentiment levels, which may provide support for USD/CAD bulls.
Regarding the Australian dollar, large speculators reduced their long positions by 24,000 contracts in a single week, with net long positions nearly turning negative. Asset managers' net long positions have also halved from the historical high two weeks ago. However, considering that the size of short positions is still relatively low, this round of decline is more of a long position liquidation than a trend reversal. The Australian dollar may still test the highs of the 1960s range.
Regarding the New Zealand dollar, short covering has occurred, with net short positions falling to a nine-week low. However, last week's close formed a bearish engulfing pattern and the dollar fell sharply from around $0.60. Short positions may rebound in the next report.
Gold: Breaks below key support
Since mid-April, gold prices have been on a downward trend due to inflation concerns stemming from energy-related factors. Better-than-expected US jobs data released last Friday, coupled with a general deterioration in risk sentiment, also impacted stock market performance. Consequently, gold prices fell below their 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023.
Currently, strong economic growth, high inflation expectations, rising bond yields, a stronger dollar, and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in 2026 have all contributed to an unfavorable situation for the gold market.
These factors have rendered the long-term bullish factors supporting gold prices—such as central bank gold purchases, fiscal debt issues, and geopolitical uncertainty—less significant. Attention is now focused on the support zone of $4,100 to $4,075. This area represents both the low of the March pullback and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022-2026 uptrend. From an uptrend perspective, resistance levels are likely at $4,432 (200-day moving average), $4,490 (recent high), and $4,635 (channel resistance).
Commodities
The most significant change in agricultural commodities this week came from widespread liquidation. Since hitting a four-year high last month, the combined net long position in 13 major agricultural futures contracts has nearly halved, with long positions in corn, soybeans, and wheat reduced by as much as two-thirds, with corn leading the decline. The Bloomberg Grain Index has fallen by about 12% from its high two and a half months ago, primarily due to harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and favorable growing conditions in U.S. corn and soybean producing regions, while speculative liquidation further amplified the decline.
The net short position in cocoa rose to 21,000 contracts, the largest since November 2022; the net long position in Arabica coffee fell to only 12,000 contracts, the lowest since December 2023; and lean pork turned net short for the first time in two years.
In the energy sector, the market continues to price in a potential easing of supply disruptions in the Middle East—a situation that could lead to a rapid release of substantial crude oil supplies from ships stranded in the Persian Gulf should the situation improve. As a result, net long positions in Brent crude have fallen to a four-month low of 253,000 contracts. In contrast, continued declines in U.S. crude inventories have provided support for WTI, thus keeping WTI demand relatively resilient.
COMEX high-grade copper (HG copper) saw net long positions rise to a more than five-year high, driven by tariff-related demand, but technically there is also the risk of profit-taking. Selling pressure intensified on Friday until buying re-entered near the key support level of around $6.15/lb. Silver, platinum, and palladium attracted relatively limited interest during the reporting week.
The latest report reaffirms that highly concentrated long positions in some markets make prices extremely vulnerable—once key technical levels are breached, selling pressure can quickly emerge in the following days.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
