Spot silver fluctuates at low levels: the US-Iran ceasefire cannot mask fundamental contradictions; non-farm payroll data becomes key in the short term.
2026-06-29 15:06:11
On Monday (June 29) during the Asian session, spot silver prices fluctuated at low levels and are currently trading around $58.50.
The clashes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz have reignited market concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies—a scenario that typically drives up oil prices and exacerbates inflation expectations, thus putting downward pressure on silver.
Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting Thursday's release of the U.S. June non-farm payrolls report for new clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Over the past weekend, the US and Iran exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait carries nearly 20% of the world's energy supply and transportation, making its strategic position extremely sensitive.
Iran appears to be using this military gesture to demonstrate its commitment to defending the waterway's authority.
According to Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi made a strong statement, emphasizing that the responsibility for controlling the Strait of Hormuz lies entirely with Tehran, and warned that any attempt to bypass the waterway would trigger "tension and escalation."
However, both sides have agreed to a ceasefire and plan to hold talks in Oman on Tuesday.
The coexistence of a short-term easing of geopolitical risks and the continued existence of fundamental contradictions has injected a high degree of uncertainty into the commodity market.
Since the outbreak of the Middle East wars, silver prices have significantly lagged behind market expectations, failing to demonstrate the strong safe-haven properties of gold.
The core logic behind this is that the sharp rise in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts has pushed up global inflation expectations. This change has strengthened the rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy, and the hawkish statements from the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, have further solidified expectations of high interest rates, thereby driving the dollar index to continue to strengthen.
As a commodity priced in US dollars, silver is under dual pressure: on the one hand, the appreciation of the US dollar directly suppresses its price; on the other hand, the high-interest-rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding silver, making funds more inclined to flow to assets with higher yields.
In other words, in the current environment, silver is seen by the market more as a "victim of inflation" than a traditional "inflation hedging tool".
This contrasts sharply with the safe-haven logic of gold—gold benefits from safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, while silver's industrial properties (photovoltaics, electronics, etc.) provide long-term support, but under the dual pressure of short-term inflation and a strong dollar, it has become a weak commodity.
Investors should be wary, as a rebound in silver prices may require a shift in Federal Reserve policy or an easing of tensions in the Middle East.
Investors are turning their attention to Thursday’s U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide key guidance for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Strong employment data would further solidify market expectations for another Fed rate hike this year, potentially strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on silver; weak data, on the other hand, could loosen current hawkish pricing, giving silver a breather.
Regardless, this report will be a key variable in determining the short-term direction of silver.
According to the daily chart, the medium-term downtrend in spot silver is clear. The price has been declining continuously since the previous high of 89.34, and recently rebounded slightly after testing a low of 55.59. The long-term moving averages MA20, MA50, and MA100 are all trending downwards, and the price continues to trade below these moving averages, with strong resistance formed by layers of moving averages above, indicating significant pressure on the bulls.
In terms of indicators, the MACD continues to operate in the bearish zone below the zero line, with the DIFF at -4.141 below the DEA at -3.408. The green bars continue to expand, indicating that the bearish momentum has not yet fully exhausted, and there is currently no effective bullish divergence reversal signal. The RSI value is 31.46, approaching the 30 oversold line, suggesting a short-term need for oversold correction. However, it has not yet risen above the 50 level, which is the dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment, and any rebound is merely a technical correction within the downtrend.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 15:05 Beijing time on June 29, spot silver was trading at $58.47 per ounce.
The clashes between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz have reignited market concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies—a scenario that typically drives up oil prices and exacerbates inflation expectations, thus putting downward pressure on silver.
Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting Thursday's release of the U.S. June non-farm payrolls report for new clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.
Geopolitical Context: US and Iran launch attacks on the Strait of Hormuz; ceasefire cannot mask fundamental contradictions.
Over the past weekend, the US and Iran exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz.
The strait carries nearly 20% of the world's energy supply and transportation, making its strategic position extremely sensitive.
Iran appears to be using this military gesture to demonstrate its commitment to defending the waterway's authority.
According to Al Jazeera, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi made a strong statement, emphasizing that the responsibility for controlling the Strait of Hormuz lies entirely with Tehran, and warned that any attempt to bypass the waterway would trigger "tension and escalation."
However, both sides have agreed to a ceasefire and plan to hold talks in Oman on Tuesday.
The coexistence of a short-term easing of geopolitical risks and the continued existence of fundamental contradictions has injected a high degree of uncertainty into the commodity market.
Silver's Unique Logic: A "Victim" of Inflationary Pressures
Since the outbreak of the Middle East wars, silver prices have significantly lagged behind market expectations, failing to demonstrate the strong safe-haven properties of gold.
The core logic behind this is that the sharp rise in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts has pushed up global inflation expectations. This change has strengthened the rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy, and the hawkish statements from the new chairman, Kevin Warsh, have further solidified expectations of high interest rates, thereby driving the dollar index to continue to strengthen.
As a commodity priced in US dollars, silver is under dual pressure: on the one hand, the appreciation of the US dollar directly suppresses its price; on the other hand, the high-interest-rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding silver, making funds more inclined to flow to assets with higher yields.
In other words, in the current environment, silver is seen by the market more as a "victim of inflation" than a traditional "inflation hedging tool".
This contrasts sharply with the safe-haven logic of gold—gold benefits from safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, while silver's industrial properties (photovoltaics, electronics, etc.) provide long-term support, but under the dual pressure of short-term inflation and a strong dollar, it has become a weak commodity.
Investors should be wary, as a rebound in silver prices may require a shift in Federal Reserve policy or an easing of tensions in the Middle East.
Macroeconomic Focus: Non-Farm Payroll Data – The Biggest Variable This Week
Investors are turning their attention to Thursday’s U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report, which could provide key guidance for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Strong employment data would further solidify market expectations for another Fed rate hike this year, potentially strengthening the dollar and putting pressure on silver; weak data, on the other hand, could loosen current hawkish pricing, giving silver a breather.
Regardless, this report will be a key variable in determining the short-term direction of silver.
Technical Analysis
According to the daily chart, the medium-term downtrend in spot silver is clear. The price has been declining continuously since the previous high of 89.34, and recently rebounded slightly after testing a low of 55.59. The long-term moving averages MA20, MA50, and MA100 are all trending downwards, and the price continues to trade below these moving averages, with strong resistance formed by layers of moving averages above, indicating significant pressure on the bulls.
In terms of indicators, the MACD continues to operate in the bearish zone below the zero line, with the DIFF at -4.141 below the DEA at -3.408. The green bars continue to expand, indicating that the bearish momentum has not yet fully exhausted, and there is currently no effective bullish divergence reversal signal. The RSI value is 31.46, approaching the 30 oversold line, suggesting a short-term need for oversold correction. However, it has not yet risen above the 50 level, which is the dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment, and any rebound is merely a technical correction within the downtrend.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 15:05 Beijing time on June 29, spot silver was trading at $58.47 per ounce.
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- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
