The battle reignites and the countdown to the minutes begins: Silver above $60 is experiencing an extreme tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
2026-07-08 13:56:41
On Wednesday (July 8) during the Asian session, spot silver prices attracted buying interest and are currently trading above $60.50 per ounce, up more than 1%, ending a two-day losing streak.
The core support for the stabilization and rebound of silver prices comes from the slight weakening of the US dollar. At this sensitive time, with the release of the Fed's June meeting minutes approaching, the renewed escalation of geopolitical risks has injected an additional safe-haven premium into silver.
The silver market is currently in a complex situation with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the escalation of the US-Iran military conflict has exacerbated concerns about energy-driven inflation, which may strengthen the Federal Reserve's "higher and longer" policy stance, posing a potential downward pressure on silver, a non-interest-bearing asset. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty itself has boosted safe-haven demand, and coupled with a weaker dollar, it has provided a bottom support for silver prices.
On Tuesday, U.S. Central Command announced a new series of “powerful strikes” against Iran in response to Iran’s attack on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military statement explicitly stated that the strike was intended to "impose a heavy price on attacks against civilian crew members and commercial shipping in international waters." This military escalation risks a substantial breakdown of the already fragile temporary ceasefire agreement.
For the silver market, the impact of geopolitical conflicts is transmitted through two paths: First, the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, directly pushing up global energy price expectations and triggering concerns about energy-driven inflation; second, rising inflation expectations may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten its monetary policy stance, which will put pressure on silver prices through the real interest rate channel.
Therefore, geopolitical conflicts are a double-edged sword for silver – safe-haven demand provides buying support, but the simultaneous rise in interest rate expectations limits the upside potential of silver prices.
The market's pricing in the Federal Reserve's policy path has become more hawkish.
According to data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently betting on an over 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of the year. This means that the market has largely priced in expectations of further tightening.
However, the minutes of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which will be released early Thursday morning Beijing time, have a key time discrepancy.
This summary reflects the discussions among policymakers in mid-June—a time when the US labor market still showed significant resilience. However, the subsequent June non-farm payroll report, showing only 57,000 new jobs, far below expectations, has significantly altered market perceptions of the US economic fundamentals.
Therefore, any hawkish wording in the minutes may have a relatively limited marginal impact relative to current market pricing, and it is even possible that a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario will occur, meaning that after the hawkish minutes are released, the market may choose to take profits and close out its dollar long positions.
From a technical perspective, $60/ounce is a crucial psychological level for the silver market. The fact that silver prices have been able to hold above this level reflects the intense struggle between bulls and bears in this area.
The moderate weakening of the US dollar provided short-term upward momentum for silver prices, while the continued existence of geopolitical risks provided underlying support for safe-haven demand.
Overall, silver prices are expected to remain range-bound around $60 ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Market participants will be closely watching the minutes for any clues regarding the assessment of inflation risks, the labor market outlook, and the discussion of the neutral interest rate.
Looking ahead, the direction of silver prices will depend on the evolution of two major variables: first, whether the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will escalate further or show signs of easing; and second, how the market will repric policy expectations after the release of the Fed minutes.
If the minutes are hawkish but have limited impact on the market (due to the "outdated" effect of the non-farm payroll data), silver prices may get a breather and test the resistance zone of $61.00-$61.50.
Conversely, if geopolitical tensions suddenly ease and the minutes release a strong signal, the support level of $60 will face a severe test. Given the current high level of uncertainty, the high volatility of the silver market is expected to continue.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 13:56 Beijing time on July 8, spot silver was trading at $60.75 per ounce.
The core support for the stabilization and rebound of silver prices comes from the slight weakening of the US dollar. At this sensitive time, with the release of the Fed's June meeting minutes approaching, the renewed escalation of geopolitical risks has injected an additional safe-haven premium into silver.
The silver market is currently in a complex situation with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, the escalation of the US-Iran military conflict has exacerbated concerns about energy-driven inflation, which may strengthen the Federal Reserve's "higher and longer" policy stance, posing a potential downward pressure on silver, a non-interest-bearing asset. On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty itself has boosted safe-haven demand, and coupled with a weaker dollar, it has provided a bottom support for silver prices.
Geopolitics: Escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz reignites the risk of energy inflation.
On Tuesday, U.S. Central Command announced a new series of “powerful strikes” against Iran in response to Iran’s attack on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military statement explicitly stated that the strike was intended to "impose a heavy price on attacks against civilian crew members and commercial shipping in international waters." This military escalation risks a substantial breakdown of the already fragile temporary ceasefire agreement.
For the silver market, the impact of geopolitical conflicts is transmitted through two paths: First, the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is threatened, directly pushing up global energy price expectations and triggering concerns about energy-driven inflation; second, rising inflation expectations may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten its monetary policy stance, which will put pressure on silver prices through the real interest rate channel.
Therefore, geopolitical conflicts are a double-edged sword for silver – safe-haven demand provides buying support, but the simultaneous rise in interest rate expectations limits the upside potential of silver prices.
Federal Reserve policy expectations: High probability of rate hikes, but the minutes' signals face the risk of becoming outdated.
The market's pricing in the Federal Reserve's policy path has become more hawkish.
According to data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are currently betting on an over 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of the year. This means that the market has largely priced in expectations of further tightening.
However, the minutes of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, which will be released early Thursday morning Beijing time, have a key time discrepancy.
This summary reflects the discussions among policymakers in mid-June—a time when the US labor market still showed significant resilience. However, the subsequent June non-farm payroll report, showing only 57,000 new jobs, far below expectations, has significantly altered market perceptions of the US economic fundamentals.
Therefore, any hawkish wording in the minutes may have a relatively limited marginal impact relative to current market pricing, and it is even possible that a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario will occur, meaning that after the hawkish minutes are released, the market may choose to take profits and close out its dollar long positions.
Silver Price Outlook: The Battle for the $60 Level and Conditions for Breakthrough
From a technical perspective, $60/ounce is a crucial psychological level for the silver market. The fact that silver prices have been able to hold above this level reflects the intense struggle between bulls and bears in this area.
The moderate weakening of the US dollar provided short-term upward momentum for silver prices, while the continued existence of geopolitical risks provided underlying support for safe-haven demand.
Outlook: Silver prices are expected to remain range-bound ahead of the release of the minutes.
Overall, silver prices are expected to remain range-bound around $60 ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Market participants will be closely watching the minutes for any clues regarding the assessment of inflation risks, the labor market outlook, and the discussion of the neutral interest rate.
Looking ahead, the direction of silver prices will depend on the evolution of two major variables: first, whether the geopolitical situation in the Middle East will escalate further or show signs of easing; and second, how the market will repric policy expectations after the release of the Fed minutes.
If the minutes are hawkish but have limited impact on the market (due to the "outdated" effect of the non-farm payroll data), silver prices may get a breather and test the resistance zone of $61.00-$61.50.
Conversely, if geopolitical tensions suddenly ease and the minutes release a strong signal, the support level of $60 will face a severe test. Given the current high level of uncertainty, the high volatility of the silver market is expected to continue.
(Spot silver daily chart, source: EasyForex)
At 13:56 Beijing time on July 8, spot silver was trading at $60.75 per ounce.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
