"Or we'll bomb you": Trump issues ultimatum to Oman, Strait of Hormuz embroiled in toll dispute.
2026-07-10 15:08:29
The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world's oil shipments. Following the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire, this strategic waterway has once again become a focal point of conflict. Oman, often referred to as the "Switzerland of the Middle East," has navigated between Washington and Tehran thanks to its unique religious identity and long-standing neutral diplomacy. However, the Trump administration's recent threats of sanctions and military strikes have forced Muscat to choose sides on the issue of strait management. This game is not only about freedom of navigation but also tests Oman's wisdom and bottom line in surviving in this precarious situation.
The Strait of Hormuz is plunging Oman into an unprecedented diplomatic storm. As the only Gulf state to maintain close ties with both Washington and Tehran, Oman is often referred to as the "Switzerland of the Middle East." However, with the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in early July 2026, this neutral stance is becoming a test of its very existence.
Oman's population is estimated at around 5.67 million by mid-2026, with the capital Muscat having a population of approximately 1.7 million. This predominantly Ibad country—a distinct branch of Islam that is neither Sunni nor Shia—has long served as a bridge between Iran (Shia-dominated) and Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, thanks to its unique religious identity.
Oman is one of the most experienced conflict mediators in the Middle East. The initial negotiations for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal were completed under Oman's auspices—although President Trump withdrew from the agreement after three years of his first term. Weeks before the outbreak of this round of conflict, Oman again acted as a key intermediary for the resumption of dialogue between the US and Iran.
In 2023, Oman facilitated a historic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Last year, it also helped negotiate a ceasefire agreement between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the United States. As the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated, Oman, along with the other five members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), called for an end to hostilities.
However, Oman went further. It publicly criticized Trump's decision to wage war, calling it "illegal" and describing Iran's retaliation as "inevitable, though deeply regrettable and utterly unacceptable." According to the Wall Street Journal, Oman quickly established secret communication channels with Tehran in the early stages of the conflict to help Gulf states reopen air corridors.
Oman's unique position—unlike other Gulf Arab states, the United States has no military presence or permanent bases in Oman—has not shielded it from conflict. Its ports of Duqm and Salalah have been attacked by missiles, and at least one ship near its coast has been attacked.
But the real test comes from Washington. As the conflict continues, the United States is increasingly interpreting Oman’s attitude toward Tehran as “unfriendly” and is pressuring Muscat to take sides and sever diplomatic relations with Iran.
According to Arab officials, Omani officials had discussed the possibility of jointly managing the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, including sharing toll revenue. This discussion crossed a red line for the United States. In late May, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant warned that if Oman helped Iran establish a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would impose "strong" sanctions. On May 27, President Trump went even further, stating, "Oman either does what everyone else does, or we have to blow them up."
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, the Trump administration has again threatened sanctions and even bombing of Oman, citing a new intelligence assessment that Muscat is planning to join Iran in imposing fees on passing ships. Oman has repeatedly denied any such intention.
The navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz directly reflects the dramatic fluctuations in the situation. According to a report released by Wenward Maritime Analysis on July 9th, 51 passages were recorded in the strait on the 7th, with 35 ships departing the Persian Gulf; this number dropped to 35 on the 8th, with only two of the 18 ships departing using the southern route; and from the night of the 8th to the early morning of the 9th, only 5 passages were recorded, with only one ship departing. The southern route has been essentially abandoned, and merchant shipping traffic has been effectively shut down for the first time since its partial resumption in mid-June. Currently, the risk level in the strait and surrounding waters is "critical."
Before the war, more than 100 ships passed through the strait daily; this number recovered to 78 on June 24, about 57% of the pre-war level; however, only 14 cargo ships passed through on July 8. At least 80 uncleared mines remain in the strait.
Threats from the United States, coupled with pressure from Gulf allies, ultimately forced Muscat to side with the US and the Gulf states. In June, Oman formally proposed to the US that shipping companies voluntarily contribute to maintaining safe navigation costs in the Strait of Malacca, modeled after existing agreements. On June 25, Omani Foreign Minister Badr stated clearly at the GCC foreign ministers' meeting that future arrangements for the Strait "will not involve the imposition of any passage fees."
In late June, during his visit to Paris, Sudanese President Haitham agreed with French President Macron to conduct joint demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz—a proposal that was not welcomed by Tehran.
However, Oman's long-standing relationship with Iran still gives it a unique capacity for mediation. This relationship dates back to the early 1970s when the Shah of Iran sent troops to help the Sultan of Oman quell a rebellion in the Dhofar region. Today, Iran, along with China and India, is a major investor in the industrial development project at the Port of Duqm in Oman.
Oman's predicament in the Strait of Hormuz crisis reflects the structural dilemma faced by small and medium-sized countries in the great power game. Leveraging its unique religious identity and long-accumulated diplomatic credibility, Muscat successfully maintained a balance between the US and Iran for many years—but the fragility of this balance was laid bare in the summer of 2026. When the US threatened to bomb it and Iran used the threat of a strait blockade as leverage, Oman had virtually no real options. Its final decision to abandon the toll-charging proposal and instead cooperate with the US and France on mine clearance was both a response to the pressure of reality and a rational calculation of its own survival interests. It is noteworthy that even against this backdrop, the Omani Foreign Minister spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister on July 9, emphasizing that the issue should be resolved through political and diplomatic means—indicating that Muscat has not completely abandoned its role as a mediator. In the future, regardless of the trajectory of US-Iran relations, Oman's challenge of surviving between great powers will continue. This crisis not only tested Oman's diplomatic wisdom but also provided the international community with a typical case study on how small and medium-sized countries safeguard their own interests in hegemonic competition.
Q: Why is Oman called the "Switzerland of the Middle East"?
A: Oman has long pursued a neutral foreign policy and is the only country in the Gulf region that maintains close relations with both Iran and the United States. Unlike other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United States has no troops stationed or permanent bases in Oman. The majority of Oman's population practices Ibad Islam—the third largest branch of Islam, independent of Sunni and Shia sects. This unique religious identity allows Oman to gain the trust of countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia. Oman hosted secret negotiations between the US and Iran, laying the foundation for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and facilitating the historic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023.
Q: Why is the United States threatening to "bomb" its ally Oman?
A: The core dispute lies in the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. According to media reports, Oman and Iran discussed the possibility of jointly managing the strait and levying service fees. The United States insists that the strait, as international waters, must remain free and unrestricted for navigation, and opposes any form of mandatory fee collection. The Trump administration viewed Oman's negotiations with Iran as a challenge to U.S. interests, and therefore threatened sanctions and military action to force Oman to choose sides. Oman has repeatedly denied any intention to levy passage fees.
Q: What is the current navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz?
A: As of early July 2026, traffic volume in the strait has plummeted. 51 passages were recorded on July 7th, dropping to 35 on the 8th, and only 5 between the night of the 8th and the early morning of the 9th. The southern channel is essentially abandoned, and merchant shipping has been effectively shut down for the first time since its partial resumption in mid-June. Before the war, over 100 ships passed through the strait daily, but the current risk level is "critical." Approximately 80 uncleared mines remain in the strait.
Q: What position did Oman ultimately take on the Straits issue?
A: Under pressure from the United States and its Gulf allies, Oman ultimately abandoned its toll collection proposal. On June 25, the Omani Foreign Minister clearly stated at the GCC Foreign Ministers' Meeting that future arrangements for the Straits "will not involve the collection of any passage fees." Oman proposed to the United States that, following the Strait of Malacca model, shipping companies voluntarily contribute funds to maintain navigational safety. At the end of June, the Sultan of Oman and French President Macron agreed to conduct joint mine-clearing operations in the Straits. Despite this, Oman still spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister on July 9, emphasizing that the issue should be resolved through diplomatic channels.
Q: What impact has this crisis had on the global energy market?
A: The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Disruptions to navigation directly impact energy supply and prices. Before the conflict, the strait saw an average daily throughput of about 17 million barrels of crude oil. With the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and a sharp rise in international oil prices, the global energy market faces severe uncertainty. Although countries like Saudi Arabia previously transported crude oil through the strait, the overall sharp drop in traffic has already had a substantial impact on the supply chain. The International Maritime Organization stated that as of June 26, 115 ships and approximately 2,450 seafarers had been evacuated, affecting about 20,000 seafarers, port workers, and offshore personnel. Goldman Sachs pointed out that Persian Gulf crude oil production in June was still about 10.5 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels, and the disruption to strait shipping is slowing the supply recovery process. Several institutions predict that if the conflict continues to escalate, oil prices may return to around $100.
At 15:07 Beijing time, Brent crude oil was trading at $76.07 per barrel.
An unavoidable test
The Strait of Hormuz is plunging Oman into an unprecedented diplomatic storm. As the only Gulf state to maintain close ties with both Washington and Tehran, Oman is often referred to as the "Switzerland of the Middle East." However, with the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement in early July 2026, this neutral stance is becoming a test of its very existence.
Oman's population is estimated at around 5.67 million by mid-2026, with the capital Muscat having a population of approximately 1.7 million. This predominantly Ibad country—a distinct branch of Islam that is neither Sunni nor Shia—has long served as a bridge between Iran (Shia-dominated) and Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, thanks to its unique religious identity.
The Glory and Dilemma of Mediators
Oman is one of the most experienced conflict mediators in the Middle East. The initial negotiations for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal were completed under Oman's auspices—although President Trump withdrew from the agreement after three years of his first term. Weeks before the outbreak of this round of conflict, Oman again acted as a key intermediary for the resumption of dialogue between the US and Iran.
In 2023, Oman facilitated a historic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Last year, it also helped negotiate a ceasefire agreement between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the United States. As the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated, Oman, along with the other five members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), called for an end to hostilities.
However, Oman went further. It publicly criticized Trump's decision to wage war, calling it "illegal" and describing Iran's retaliation as "inevitable, though deeply regrettable and utterly unacceptable." According to the Wall Street Journal, Oman quickly established secret communication channels with Tehran in the early stages of the conflict to help Gulf states reopen air corridors.
US iron-fisted pressure
Oman's unique position—unlike other Gulf Arab states, the United States has no military presence or permanent bases in Oman—has not shielded it from conflict. Its ports of Duqm and Salalah have been attacked by missiles, and at least one ship near its coast has been attacked.
But the real test comes from Washington. As the conflict continues, the United States is increasingly interpreting Oman’s attitude toward Tehran as “unfriendly” and is pressuring Muscat to take sides and sever diplomatic relations with Iran.
According to Arab officials, Omani officials had discussed the possibility of jointly managing the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, including sharing toll revenue. This discussion crossed a red line for the United States. In late May, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant warned that if Oman helped Iran establish a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would impose "strong" sanctions. On May 27, President Trump went even further, stating, "Oman either does what everyone else does, or we have to blow them up."
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, the Trump administration has again threatened sanctions and even bombing of Oman, citing a new intelligence assessment that Muscat is planning to join Iran in imposing fees on passing ships. Oman has repeatedly denied any such intention.
Cross-Strait Navigation: From Recovery to Near Stagnation
The navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz directly reflects the dramatic fluctuations in the situation. According to a report released by Wenward Maritime Analysis on July 9th, 51 passages were recorded in the strait on the 7th, with 35 ships departing the Persian Gulf; this number dropped to 35 on the 8th, with only two of the 18 ships departing using the southern route; and from the night of the 8th to the early morning of the 9th, only 5 passages were recorded, with only one ship departing. The southern route has been essentially abandoned, and merchant shipping traffic has been effectively shut down for the first time since its partial resumption in mid-June. Currently, the risk level in the strait and surrounding waters is "critical."
Before the war, more than 100 ships passed through the strait daily; this number recovered to 78 on June 24, about 57% of the pre-war level; however, only 14 cargo ships passed through on July 8. At least 80 uncleared mines remain in the strait.
Forced Shift: Oman's Position Adjustment
Threats from the United States, coupled with pressure from Gulf allies, ultimately forced Muscat to side with the US and the Gulf states. In June, Oman formally proposed to the US that shipping companies voluntarily contribute to maintaining safe navigation costs in the Strait of Malacca, modeled after existing agreements. On June 25, Omani Foreign Minister Badr stated clearly at the GCC foreign ministers' meeting that future arrangements for the Strait "will not involve the imposition of any passage fees."
In late June, during his visit to Paris, Sudanese President Haitham agreed with French President Macron to conduct joint demining operations in the Strait of Hormuz—a proposal that was not welcomed by Tehran.
However, Oman's long-standing relationship with Iran still gives it a unique capacity for mediation. This relationship dates back to the early 1970s when the Shah of Iran sent troops to help the Sultan of Oman quell a rebellion in the Dhofar region. Today, Iran, along with China and India, is a major investor in the industrial development project at the Port of Duqm in Oman.
Editor's Summary
Oman's predicament in the Strait of Hormuz crisis reflects the structural dilemma faced by small and medium-sized countries in the great power game. Leveraging its unique religious identity and long-accumulated diplomatic credibility, Muscat successfully maintained a balance between the US and Iran for many years—but the fragility of this balance was laid bare in the summer of 2026. When the US threatened to bomb it and Iran used the threat of a strait blockade as leverage, Oman had virtually no real options. Its final decision to abandon the toll-charging proposal and instead cooperate with the US and France on mine clearance was both a response to the pressure of reality and a rational calculation of its own survival interests. It is noteworthy that even against this backdrop, the Omani Foreign Minister spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister on July 9, emphasizing that the issue should be resolved through political and diplomatic means—indicating that Muscat has not completely abandoned its role as a mediator. In the future, regardless of the trajectory of US-Iran relations, Oman's challenge of surviving between great powers will continue. This crisis not only tested Oman's diplomatic wisdom but also provided the international community with a typical case study on how small and medium-sized countries safeguard their own interests in hegemonic competition.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why is Oman called the "Switzerland of the Middle East"?
A: Oman has long pursued a neutral foreign policy and is the only country in the Gulf region that maintains close relations with both Iran and the United States. Unlike other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United States has no troops stationed or permanent bases in Oman. The majority of Oman's population practices Ibad Islam—the third largest branch of Islam, independent of Sunni and Shia sects. This unique religious identity allows Oman to gain the trust of countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia. Oman hosted secret negotiations between the US and Iran, laying the foundation for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and facilitating the historic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023.
Q: Why is the United States threatening to "bomb" its ally Oman?
A: The core dispute lies in the administration of the Strait of Hormuz. According to media reports, Oman and Iran discussed the possibility of jointly managing the strait and levying service fees. The United States insists that the strait, as international waters, must remain free and unrestricted for navigation, and opposes any form of mandatory fee collection. The Trump administration viewed Oman's negotiations with Iran as a challenge to U.S. interests, and therefore threatened sanctions and military action to force Oman to choose sides. Oman has repeatedly denied any intention to levy passage fees.
Q: What is the current navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz?
A: As of early July 2026, traffic volume in the strait has plummeted. 51 passages were recorded on July 7th, dropping to 35 on the 8th, and only 5 between the night of the 8th and the early morning of the 9th. The southern channel is essentially abandoned, and merchant shipping has been effectively shut down for the first time since its partial resumption in mid-June. Before the war, over 100 ships passed through the strait daily, but the current risk level is "critical." Approximately 80 uncleared mines remain in the strait.
Q: What position did Oman ultimately take on the Straits issue?
A: Under pressure from the United States and its Gulf allies, Oman ultimately abandoned its toll collection proposal. On June 25, the Omani Foreign Minister clearly stated at the GCC Foreign Ministers' Meeting that future arrangements for the Straits "will not involve the collection of any passage fees." Oman proposed to the United States that, following the Strait of Malacca model, shipping companies voluntarily contribute funds to maintain navigational safety. At the end of June, the Sultan of Oman and French President Macron agreed to conduct joint mine-clearing operations in the Straits. Despite this, Oman still spoke with the Iranian Foreign Minister on July 9, emphasizing that the issue should be resolved through diplomatic channels.
Q: What impact has this crisis had on the global energy market?
A: The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. Disruptions to navigation directly impact energy supply and prices. Before the conflict, the strait saw an average daily throughput of about 17 million barrels of crude oil. With the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and a sharp rise in international oil prices, the global energy market faces severe uncertainty. Although countries like Saudi Arabia previously transported crude oil through the strait, the overall sharp drop in traffic has already had a substantial impact on the supply chain. The International Maritime Organization stated that as of June 26, 115 ships and approximately 2,450 seafarers had been evacuated, affecting about 20,000 seafarers, port workers, and offshore personnel. Goldman Sachs pointed out that Persian Gulf crude oil production in June was still about 10.5 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels, and the disruption to strait shipping is slowing the supply recovery process. Several institutions predict that if the conflict continues to escalate, oil prices may return to around $100.
At 15:07 Beijing time, Brent crude oil was trading at $76.07 per barrel.
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