2025-12-18 Thursday
20:56:24
[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous Metals Sector Supported by Macro Liquidity Expectations] ⑴ On the macro front, the US unemployment rate rose to its highest level since September 2021 in November, indicating an uncertain economic outlook and exacerbating policy uncertainty, increasing the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026. ⑵ Recent remarks by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan reflect increased internal disagreement on interest rate hikes, easing global liquidity pressures and supporting non-ferrous metal prices. ⑶ Regarding Shanghai copper, the spot market supply is ample, and holders are willing to sell, but transactions are generally weak. The strategy is to buy on dips. ⑷ Regarding Shanghai zinc, in the long term, with supply increasing and demand stabilizing, there is a tendency for oversupply in the supply-demand balance. The realization of oversupply expectations depends on the transmission from the mining to the smelting end, limiting the long-term upside potential for zinc prices. ⑸ Precious metal prices continue to rise, with silver reaching a new high due to tight spot supply. Long-term prices remain supported; the strategy is to buy on dips, but recent volatility necessitates cautious trading. (6) Alumina prices have rebounded recently, but the fundamentals remain in oversupply, with some high-cost companies facing losses and no large-scale production cuts yet, resulting in inventory accumulation. (7) Approximately 9 million tons of domestic capacity is expected to come online in 2026, making it difficult to improve the oversupply situation. A trend reversal is unlikely in the short term. Short selling on rallies is advisable, with attention focused on whether loss-making production cuts occur. (8) For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum, cooling macro sentiment has led to price corrections. The fundamentals show stable supply but weakening demand, with inventory potentially accumulating, limiting support. (9) However, given the generally positive macroeconomic outlook both domestically and internationally, and expectations of tightening overseas supply, the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy on dips can be considered after the correction stabilizes, with subsequent monitoring of domestic demand and inventory levels. (10) The cancellation of 27 expired mining rights by the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau has triggered market concerns about lithium resource supply, leading to a sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures and a strong breakout. 11. In the short term, supported by delayed resumption of production, supply concerns, and positive demand expectations, lithium carbonate may maintain a relatively strong trend. However, the risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be guarded against, and the strategy should focus on buying on dips. 12. In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in 2026, with a slight increase in the price center. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of key project resumption, production volume, and inventory changes.
13:06:46
[US Media: Trump's Strategy Towards Venezuela Shifts to "Gradual Pressure," Ultimately Aiming to Remove Maduro from Power] 1. According to Politico, the Trump administration's recent blockade of oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast is the latest manifestation of its "gradual pressure" strategy against Venezuelan President Maduro. This strategy aims to ultimately remove Maduro from power through sustained isolation and pressure, rather than immediate large-scale domestic action. 2. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the US believes the Maduro regime's survival depends on oil, drugs, and illegal gold smuggling, and the current US actions are simultaneously applying pressure on these three fronts. However, analysts also acknowledge that Maduro will not easily yield, and his stubbornness, coupled with the increased expectations of US action, leaves little room for compromise on either side. The report points out that "Maduro is buying time, while Trump is buying victory," leaving few options for de-escalation.
09:49:14
【Short-term trading advice for spot gold: Oscillating upward, buy on dips】 (1) Reasons for analysis: Gold prices fell slightly after hitting a seven-week high, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar index after a sharp drop. However, in the medium term, gold is still in the bullish range. On the fundamental side, the latest US employment data has further strengthened the market's expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, geopolitical risks have risen again, supporting gold prices. The current adjustment is more of a technical demand than a change in fundamentals. In the short term, we should continue to pay attention to US economic data and wait for directional guidance. On the technical side, we should wait for the support of the moving average to be confirmed. (2) Key focus: US Treasury yield, US dollar index, geopolitical situation, US economic data (3) Resistance: 4350, 4380, 4400 (4) Support: 4300, 4280, 4260;
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