2026-09-18 Friday
21:50:45
[US Treasury Real Yields Soar, Gold Significantly Decouples from Its Traditional Correlation] ⑴ The 10-year US real yield has risen to approximately 2.7%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. ⑵ Historically, rising real yields have typically been a major headwind for gold, as inflation-adjusted US Treasury returns are more attractive. ⑶ However, since 2022, gold has shown a significant divergence from real yields, with the current gold price around $4,380 per ounce. ⑷ This relationship shifted after the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, with central banks increasingly turning to gold as a reserve asset. ⑸ Gold is perceived as less reliant on other countries' balance sheets, increasing its attractiveness as a reserve asset. ⑹ Even with a significant increase in the real borrowing costs of US debt since then, gold prices have continued to rise. ⑺ From a market sentiment perspective, geopolitical factors and the need for reserve diversification are increasingly offsetting the traditional pressure from high real yields. ⑻ For many global central banks, gold has become a more important reserve asset than US Treasury bonds. (9) The subsequent focus should be on the interplay between the central bank's gold purchase pace and the path of real interest rates, as these two factors will determine whether this decoupling can continue. (10) Overall, the pricing logic for gold is shifting from being solely driven by interest rates to a combination of reserve and geopolitical factors.
19:15:30
[Gold Prices Continue to Rise Amid Fed Rate Hikes; Institutions Warn Against Blindly Chasing the Rally] ⑴ Gold prices rose for the third consecutive trading day. The rebound was supported by a decline in international crude oil prices, lower US Treasury yields, and limited gains in the US dollar index. The Indian MCX October gold contract rose another 1540 rupees per 10 grams, reaching a daily high of 153900 rupees, a cumulative increase of 3640 rupees in three days, potentially achieving two consecutive weeks of gains. ⑵ Gold's earlier decline this month has narrowed to 0.31%, recovering 4210 rupees from the month's low of 149200 rupees, showing strong upward momentum. Gold prices briefly weakened after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but subsequently strengthened again driven by expectations of controlled inflation. ⑶ The US dollar index remains near a seven-week high, trading at 100.4 points. A stronger dollar typically suppresses gold consumption demand in non-US dollar currency regions. Currently, the US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.96%, and Brent crude oil remains above $99 per barrel; these indicators could reverse the gold price trend at any time. (4) Industry institutions remind investors that the global interest rate outlook remains uncertain, and chasing gold prices directly is not recommended. Long-term investors can adopt a phased buying approach to mitigate volatility, and leveraged traders should reduce their positions and strictly set stop-loss orders. (5) Indian gold prices will also be affected by the local currency exchange rate. Furthermore, China's increased gold reserves and reduced holdings of US Treasury bonds, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases will continue to influence the future price trends of precious metals.
13:16:12
[Hawky Fed and Middle East Situation Limits Dollar Decline, Gold Rebounds but Bullish Confidence Remains Weak] 1. Gold prices fluctuated higher in Asian trading on Friday, rising as much as 0.63% to $4369.38 per ounce, but remained below the weekly high reached the previous day. Despite attracting some buying for the second consecutive trading day, bullish sentiment was clearly weak. Recent declines in oil prices eased immediate concerns about runaway inflation, and further declines in US Treasury yields from multi-year highs put dollar bulls on the defensive, providing support for gold prices. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook provided a tailwind for the dollar, preventing traders from making aggressive bullish bets on non-interest-bearing gold. 2. On Wednesday, the Fed unanimously voted to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023, and the dot plot showed officials expect one more rate hike this year. Chairman Warsh emphasized the importance of stable consumer prices for US economic growth after the meeting, noting that inflation has been persistently high. Escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support oil prices, exacerbating concerns about energy-driven inflation and reinforcing the prospect of further Fed tightening. 3. UOB analysts pointed out that the Fed's return to a rate hike cycle is reshaping the dollar's outlook. With the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates twice more, the narrowing of the US interest rate differential relative to G10 peers, which previously suppressed the dollar, may reverse and support the dollar in the future. The bank believes its previous cautious stance on the dollar is increasingly being challenged, and there are upside risks to the dollar's forecasts against G10 and Asian currencies. 4. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 54% probability of another rate hike at the October meeting and an approximately 88% probability of action in December. This, along with geopolitical uncertainty, provides a tailwind for the safe-haven dollar, thus limiting gold prices. In the latest developments, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated it struck a Togolese-flagged oil tanker attempting to illegally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Trump indicated he is close to making a major decision on whether to resume large-scale attacks against Iran. 5. Therefore, it is prudent to cautiously await strong follow-through buying before betting on a further recovery in precious metals from the six-week low hit on Wednesday. Traders are currently anticipating secondary macroeconomic data such as US industrial production and capacity utilization rates to be released on Friday, as well as speeches by influential FOMC members, which will boost the dollar and provide impetus for gold prices during the North American session. Meanwhile, the market will also be watching the further developments of the Middle East crisis.
11:32:40
[Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $5,400 gold price by the end of 2027: Rate hikes will only slow the rise, not change the long-term upward trend] (1) Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $5,400/ounce for gold by the end of 2027. Despite the latest US rate hike, tighter monetary policy may slow the rise in gold prices, but it will not change its long-term upward trend. (2) In its report, Goldman Sachs stated that the impact of tighter monetary policy is expected to be mainly reflected in a slowdown in the short-term appreciation path of gold, rather than a decline in the final gold price. (3) The continued diversification of reserves by central banks around the world remains the main structural driver for Goldman Sachs' bullish outlook on gold. (4) Goldman Sachs pointed out that if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish policy, gold may experience a larger correction. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates three more times this year and signals that the final interest rate will rise further, the gold price may fall to about $4,070/ounce. (5) However, as central banks around the world continue to buy gold to support the market, the gold price is expected to rebound to about $4,200/ounce by the end of 2026.
10:32:46
Gold prices rose slightly on Friday, supported by pressure on oil prices and a weaker dollar. Spot gold is currently up 0.25%, trading around $4352.50 per ounce, mainly supported by oil prices and a weaker dollar. Investors continue to focus on developments in the Middle East and the outlook for global monetary policy. 2. Oil prices were pressured near one-week lows, while the dollar remained weak after retreating from recent highs. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus supporting gold prices. 3. The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike on Wednesday and hinted at further tightening in the coming months. The latest quarterly economic forecasts show that 16 of the 18 policymakers expect at least one more 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year. Despite this, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of $5400 per ounce for gold by the end of 2027, believing that monetary policy tightening may slow the rise in gold prices, but will not stop it. 4. Gold is generally considered a hedge against inflation, but rising interest rates increase the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets, thus suppressing gold demand. However, after the Fed's rate hike was implemented, US Treasury yields fell sharply, providing an opportunity for a gold price rebound. 5. Regarding other central banks, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday but warned of possible future rate hikes. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its interest rate to a 31-year high on Friday and pledged further measures to address inflation risks.
10:06:17
【Spot Gold: Range-bound trading, sell on rallies and buy on dips】 (1) Reasons for analysis: Gold rebounded to around $4345, with the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields providing support, and the drop in oil prices also easing inflationary pressures; however, the Fed still released hawkish signals after raising interest rates, and interest rate expectations limited the upside potential of gold prices, maintaining a short-term consolidation pattern. If the US dollar index weakens further, the possibility of gold prices breaking through the upper edge of the range cannot be ruled out, and the focus should be on waiting for a pressure test. (2) Key focus: US Treasury yields, US dollar index, geopolitical situation (3) Resistance: 4360, 4400, 4430 (4) Support: 4300, 4250, 4200;
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