2025-09-18 Thursday
20:31:14
[Caixin Futures: Pre-holiday Strategy for Nonferrous Metals and New Energy Sectors] (1) Gold: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points as expected. The dot plot confirms three rate cuts this year, but the path for the next two years remains largely unchanged, implying only one more cut next year. Powell characterized this as a "precautionary rate cut," indicating a policy bottom has been reached and a potential technical rebound in long-term interest rates by year-end. The US dollar and interest rates plummeted immediately after the decision was announced, sending gold prices surging, but this price quickly retreated after the press conference. The 3,700 level for gold has fully priced in a 75 basis point rate cut this year. Lacking support from a steeper curve, 3,700 represents strong resistance in the short term. We recommend reducing long leverage and adopting a bearish bias. (2) Alumina: The market corrected due to the Fed's rate cut and news of mine production resumption in Guinea. Fundamentals remain oversupplied, with weekly production capacity rebounding, inventories and warehouse receipts continuing to increase, and the import window opening, resulting in overall weakness. With narrowing profit margins, lower cost support may gradually emerge. Short-term short positions can be booked gradually, while monitoring potential policy impacts. (3) Shanghai Aluminum: The 25 basis point interest rate cut at the meeting was implemented, but it did not exceed expectations. Shanghai Aluminum retreated along with nonferrous metals. Market expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season remain high, and the continued increase in LME Asian warehouse withdrawals has raised supply concerns. The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, and the overall outlook for aluminum prices remains strong. A long-only strategy is to buy on dips, with attention to the turning point of destocking. (4) Cast Aluminum Alloy: The rate cut news did not exceed expectations, and prices retreated along with nonferrous metals. However, a tight scrap aluminum market has led to a rush to stock up, driving up prices. Demand is driven by the traditional peak season, but quality remains to be verified. Supported by macroeconomic and fundamental factors, the market is expected to remain strong. A long-only strategy is to buy on dips, focusing on the pace of raw material supply and demand recovery. (5) Lithium Carbonate: The market is suppressed by expectations of production resumption in Ningde, but downstream peak season and pre-holiday stockpiling provide some support. A slight increase in production and a decrease in inventory suggest limited short-term momentum. The results of the self-inspection of Yichun mining companies have not yet been released, and supply-side uncertainty remains. Strategically, we recommend a cautious wait-and-see approach and be wary of news-related disturbance risks.
14:24:46
[The Da Tengxia Ship Lock has surpassed 400 million tons in capacity, with several technical indicators leading the world or China] Reporters learned from the Ministry of Water Resources that since its trial opening in March 2020, a total of 146,400 ships have passed through the Da Tengxia Ship Lock, with a total capacity exceeding 400 million tons, highlighting its central role as the Pearl River's golden waterway. The Da Tengxia Ship Lock is a vital passage for inland water transport to the sea in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi, and a strong support for Guangxi's eastward integration into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, a major national strategy. Several of its technical indicators are leading the world or China. With the closure of the Da Tengxia Project to store water, 266 kilometers of waterways in the reservoir area have been channelized, and the navigation level has jumped from the original 300-ton level to the 3,000-ton level, the highest standard for inland waterway shipping in my country. (CCTV News)
13:56:31
Gold prices continued to fall as the Fed's hawkish stance boosted the dollar. 1. Gold prices fell further in Asian trading on Thursday, primarily due to a stronger dollar. The Fed previously cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but expressed caution in its policy outlook, not making a clear commitment to further easing. 2. As of 1:54 PM Beijing time, spot gold fell 0.27% to $3,649.36 per ounce, breaking below the $3,650 mark. Gold prices hit a record high of $3,707 per ounce during intraday trading on Wednesday. 3. Marex analyst Edward Meir noted, "The Fed's overall stance is slightly hawkish, and it hasn't shown a strong willingness to continue cutting rates." He said the dollar strengthened after the decision, along with rising Treasury yields. In the short term, gold prices may be overbought and could fall further to the $3,600 level. 4. The US dollar index rose 0.4% on Wednesday and continued its gains in Asian trading on Thursday, currently up 0.24% to around 97.24. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell defined the rate cut as a risk management measure to address the weakening job market and emphasized that future policy will be determined "meeting by meeting." Meanwhile, holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, fell 0.44%, reflecting a cooling of market sentiment. Gold prices have risen 39% so far this year, continuing last year's strong 27% increase. Supporting factors include market expectations for Fed rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchasing demand.
11:35:37
[Spot gold may fall to the $3,617 to $3,630 range] 1. Technical indicators show that spot gold may fall to the $3,617 to $3,630 range per ounce, as the five-wave cycle that started at $3,311 may have completed. 2. Gold prices have failed to break through the $3,705 resistance level twice. This suggests the formation of a double top pattern, and this trend has almost been confirmed. 3. The real confirmation will be the market breaking through the $3,650 support level. The bearish divergence of the RSI on the hourly chart indicates that there is little chance that gold will retest the $3,705 resistance level. 4. The current resistance level is $3,684, and breaking through this resistance level could push the price up to the $3,705 to $3,739 range. On the daily chart, the RSI indicator shows a five-wave cycle, indicating a deep correction. 5. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between September 16 and September 17, foreshadowing a reversal of the uptrend.
10:16:14
【Spot gold short-term operation suggestion: oscillate upward, buy on dips】 (1) Analysis reason: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision was implemented, and there was no unexpected rate cut. The market has fully reflected the rate cut expectations. Therefore, the gold price did not accelerate the breakthrough, and the US dollar index did not accelerate the decline. At present, after the sentiment is realized, we need to wait for new changes in the fundamentals. We will continue to pay attention to the direction of US economic data. The technical level will maintain high fluctuations. The short-term deviation value is large, and we will wait for correction. (2) Key focus: risk aversion, US dollar index, US Treasury yields (3) Resistance: 3680, 3700, 3720 (4) Support: 3630, 3600, 3580;
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