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2026-04-09 Thursday

2026-04-09

18:10:47

[Turkey Prepares for Protracted War, Finance Minister Hints at Additional Tools] ⑴ Turkish Finance Minister Şimşek stated on Thursday that if the ceasefire agreement reached this week between the US and Iran fails to be effectively maintained, the government is prepared to utilize a different set of policy tools to address the ongoing impact of the Middle East conflict. ⑵ In an interview with Haberturk TV, Şimşek stated that the government's primary scenario is a one-month war, and a three-month extension would severely damage the economy, but he did not elaborate on the details of potential countermeasures. ⑶ Among the measures already taken, the Central Bank of Turkey has suspended its easing cycle at the policy interest rate level of 37%, and has supported the lira by raising the overnight interest rate by nearly 300 basis points to approximately 40%, and by selling and swapping hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign exchange and gold reserves. ⑷ Şimşek acknowledged that the severe shock has led to a deterioration in the inflation outlook, challenging the target of bringing the inflation rate below 20% by the end of the year, and also widening the expected current account deficit. (5) He disclosed that the central bank's reserves have decreased by $48.7 billion since the outbreak of the war, but still have a reserve balance of approximately $162 billion, and expects the reserve size to return to pre-crisis levels once the war ends. (6) If the ceasefire breaks down, the risk scenario will encompass a global economic recession and stagflation, and even if the conflict ends, the disrupted global supply chains will take months to recover to pre-war levels. (7) Shymşek also revealed that after weeks of capital outflows, capital flows have shown a very strong positive reversal since Wednesday, indicating that Turkey's sound macroeconomic fundamentals are regaining international investor recognition.

10:05:56

[Mining executives: Copper is poised to be the best-performing metal this year, with structural supply and demand imbalances supporting a long-term bullish outlook] (1) Vizsla Copper Corp CEO Craig Parry said copper could be the standout metal in the current cycle, outperforming gold and silver this year. This is due to the clash between structural supply constraints and strong long-term demand drivers. Unlike the urbanization drive in China in the early 2000s, this round of drivers is broader and more persistent (global electrification, green energy transition, and infrastructure investment). (2) The copper industry faces a severe shortage of new supply: major producers are finding it difficult to maintain existing production levels, and new projects face rising capital costs, licensing challenges, and long development cycles. Meeting future copper demand would require approximately $200 billion in investment, but there are not enough viable projects to absorb the capital. Parry predicts that if supply does not keep up, copper prices could reach $20-30 per pound by the end of this decade. (3) Gold remains supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainty, but recent turmoil in the Middle East has dampened physical demand, and gold prices will rebound once trade flows return to normal. Silver is positioned between gold and copper, with solar energy demand absorbing most of the supply. Parry described the recent sell-off in mining stocks as an "extraordinary opportunity," predicting a sharp revaluation of the sector over the next 12-18 months. Vizsla is advancing exploration plans, including the Palmer project in Alaska.

10:01:00

[FTSE Russell Head of Research: Gold's Safe-Haven Role Remains Unchanged, Stagflation Signals Strengthen Commodity Allocation Value] (1) Indrani De, Global Head of Investment Research at FTSE Russell, said that although gold has recently experienced sharp fluctuations and failed to attract safe-haven buying amid geopolitical risks, its role in investment portfolios has not undergone a structural change. Gold continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty, but investors need to distinguish between long-term fundamentals and short-term headwinds. (2) Gold's safe-haven appeal is being offset by rising opportunity costs of holding non-interest-bearing assets: Middle East conflicts have driven up energy prices and reignited inflation concerns, which in turn have fueled market expectations of central bank interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, after gold prices rose to a record high of $5,600 at the beginning of the year, a more severe profit-taking cycle has emerged, making gold more sensitive to market liquidity. However, the decline in gold prices is roughly equivalent to that of global stock markets and is part of a broader asset repricing. (3) The global economy is sending "stagflation" signals (slower growth + continued inflation), and the commodity market (rising oil prices and weakening copper prices) clearly indicates the risk of stagflation. In this environment, gold still serves as a defensive ballast, while other commodities (especially energy, industrial metals, and transition metals) are also gaining sustained demand due to AI and green transformation, making diversified allocation even more justifiable.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4755.45

36.27

(0.77%)

XAG

 74.369

0.315

(0.43%)

CONC

 102.17

7.76

(8.22%)

OILC

 98.96

2.80

(2.92%)

USD

 98.997

-0.033

(-0.03%)

EURUSD

 1.1676

0.0014

(0.12%)

GBPUSD

 1.3409

0.0018

(0.13%)

USDCNH

 6.8376

0.0056

(0.08%)
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