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2026-05-29 Friday

10:27:55

[Gold Prices Rise Slightly Amidst Intertwined News of US-Iran Ceasefire and Interest Rate Outlook] 1. Gold prices rose slightly in early Asian trading on Friday, with spot gold initially gaining 0.5% to $4,520 per ounce. Investors are assessing news regarding an extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, while concerns about inflationary pressures and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike persist. 2. Gold prices fell to a two-month low in the previous trading session before recovering following news of an extended US-Iran ceasefire. Sources revealed that the US and Iran have reached a draft agreement on extending the ceasefire and restoring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, US President Trump has not yet approved the agreement, and Iranian state media also stated that the agreement has not been finalized. 3. On the economic data front, US inflation in April recorded its fastest pace in three years, mainly driven by energy prices pushed up by the war with Iran. This further reinforces the general view among economists that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at least until next year. 4. Several Federal Reserve officials have spoken out. St. Louis Fed President Moussalem stated that if inflation fails to slow down within the next six months, the Fed may need to consider raising interest rates. New York Fed President Williams believes that current monetary policy is appropriate, and while inflation is expected to remain high in the short term, pressures are likely to ease later this year. 5. Furthermore, data released by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department shows that China's net gold imports via Hong Kong increased significantly by 81.2% in April compared to the previous month.

00:17:23

[US New Home Sales Fall Short of Expectations, Gold Prices Receive New Support] Gold had already accumulated upward momentum due to weak US economic growth in the first quarter. The sharp decline in US new home sales in April provided further support for gold prices, contributing to the precious metals market trend. According to data released by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, seasonally adjusted US new home sales fell 6.2% month-on-month in April, dropping to 622,000 units, a significant decline from 663,000 units in March and far below economists' market expectations of 661,000 units. Looking at the whole year, new home sales declined 11.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant downward trend in the housing market. Currently, the US real estate market is mired in a development dilemma. On the one hand, insufficient new home supply, coupled with strong demand, has led to continuously rising prices. The median price of new homes in April reached $422,500, up 8% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year. On the other hand, increased inflationary pressures and market expectations of interest rate hikes have led to a simultaneous rise in mortgage rates. High housing prices and costs are deterring many potential homebuyers. As of the end of April, there were 489,000 new homes for sale in the United States, enough to meet market demand for only 9.4 months. The gold market reacted relatively calmly after the data release. The latest spot gold price was $4,437.60 per ounce, a slight decrease of 0.40% on the day. Prior to this, gold prices had fluctuated wildly, dipping to $4,366 per ounce during the European trading session, breaking below the 200-day moving average, before experiencing a significant rise before the North American market opened.

2026-05-28 Thursday

2026-05-27 Wednesday

20:41:24

[Caixin Futures: Non-ferrous and New Energy Metals Generally Fluctuate, Lithium Carbonate Spot Price Falls to 175,450 Yuan/Ton] ⑴ Shanghai Copper: Fluctuating. On the macro front, renewed tensions between the US and Iran, and the potential continuation of the inflationary shockwaves triggered by the Middle East conflict, have amplified market expectations for a Fed rate hike. On the fundamental front, the tight spot market has improved marginally, but the supply of high-quality copper remains tight, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream purchasing intentions, with companies mostly replenishing their stocks as needed. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. ⑵ Shanghai Aluminum: Fluctuating. The macro front is also affected by tensions between the US and Iran and expectations of a rate hike. On the fundamental front, overseas supply gaps and low inventories continue to provide bottom support, while the unexpected accumulation of domestic inventories will continue, dragging down domestic aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. ⑶ Shanghai Zinc: Fluctuating. The macro front is affected by geopolitical tensions and expectations of a rate hike. Overseas processing fees remain low due to mining disruptions, smelters have extremely low production intentions, and strong expectations of supply contraction provide bottom support, but demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. (4) Precious Metals: Prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight downward bias. With renewed tensions between the US and Iran, the seesaw effect between crude oil and precious metals has led to a continued decline in precious metal prices. Considering the significant uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and strong expectations of a Fed rate hike, gold and silver prices are unlikely to see significant improvement and are expected to fluctuate with a slight downward bias. (5) Lithium Carbonate: Prices are expected to fluctuate downwards. Lithium prices have continued to fluctuate downwards. The previous rebound to 200,000 yuan/ton was mainly supported by factors such as contracted lithium mine supply in Jiangxi, tight overseas lithium mine shipments, and strong downstream demand. The current market logic has shifted. Lithium carbonate shipments from Chile and Argentina remain high, and with lithium mines from Zimbabwe arriving in July, the supply and demand situation is becoming more relaxed. The expectation of a medium-term supply easing continues to suppress the market. Downstream purchasing intentions are weak, spot prices have been successively lowered, and futures are showing a deep discount. Market open interest has declined, and funds continue to flow out. At present, there is no clear opportunity for bottom-fishing. Today, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 1,850 yuan to 175,450 yuan/ton.

14:19:26

[Fragile US-Iran ceasefire coupled with uncertainty surrounding Fed signals sends gold prices below $4,500] 1. Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, with spot gold briefly falling below $4,500 and currently trading around $4,488 per ounce, a drop of about 0.4%. Investors are closely watching the still fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, while awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials for clues about the direction of monetary policy. 2. Ilya Spivak, global macro director at Tastylive, said the overall trend remains downward, but the market is in a prolonged consolidation phase, as reflected in today's price action. He noted that the market is increasingly focused on whether a genuine breakthrough can be achieved between the US and Iran. 3. Iran accused the US on Tuesday of launching attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, a move that violates the existing ceasefire agreement and could further complicate diplomatic efforts to end the war. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Rubio stated that reaching an agreement to cease hostilities could still take "a few more days." Both sides had previously indicated progress in drafting a preliminary agreement to end hostilities and restore shipping across the Strait. 4. Investors are also awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson, Governor Cook, and other policymakers to assess the impact of inflation on future monetary policy stances. Furthermore, the US April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, scheduled for release on Thursday, is also closely watched, with the market hoping for further policy clues. 5. Spivak added that inflation risks and bond market movements have a significant impact on market sentiment, to the point that investors' attention has shifted away from gold's own returns. He warned that if the current trend continues, gold prices could fall to "around $3700 to $3800" by the end of the year.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4559.26

63.67

(1.42%)

XAG

75.741

0.124

(0.16%)

CONC

87.63

-1.27

(-1.43%)

OILC

91.39

-1.00

(-1.08%)

USD

98.873

-0.136

(-0.14%)

EURUSD

1.1668

0.0018

(0.16%)

GBPUSD

1.3466

0.0022

(0.16%)

USDCNH

6.7647

-0.0043

(-0.06%)