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2025-11-04 Tuesday

2025-11-04

2025-11-03 Monday

20:59:26

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in the Metals Market] ⑴ The new gold value-added tax policy has different impacts on the gold financial market and the spot trading market. On the one hand, it has driven some off-exchange transactions to the exchange, and on the other hand, the sales costs of downstream investment gold bars and gold jewelry have increased. ⑵ Gold prices dipped slightly in early trading today, hitting a low of 911 yuan, briefly breaking through last week's first support level of 915 yuan before quickly rebounding. The effectiveness of this price level as the lower edge of an important bullish trading range has been initially verified. ⑶ The short-term gold price trading range remains focused on 915-926 yuan. In terms of trading, it is crucial to pay close attention to changes in trading volume: if there is an increase in open interest and a breakout above 926 yuan, the upside target could be the 935 yuan gap; if there is a rebound with reduced open interest, long positions should be closed for profit in a timely manner. ⑷ Several Federal Reserve officials spoke out intensively after this week's interest rate meeting. Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammarck explicitly stated their opposition to this week's interest rate cut decision, while Fed Governor Waller called for continued interest rate cuts. (5) Despite the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, given the continued disruptions to copper mines both domestically and internationally, the persistently negative copper concentrate import index, tight supply expectations, and escalating geopolitical tensions, Shanghai copper prices will likely remain supported in the future. The overall strategy remains to buy on dips. (6) LME inventories remain low, and while domestic social inventories have decreased slightly but remain at historically high levels, export windows are open, and demand is relatively stable. Considering the continued oversupply in the domestic market, the upside potential for Shanghai zinc prices is limited. (7) The overall supply and demand for alumina remains relatively loose, with both operating capacity and inventory at high levels in the short term. Short-term fundamental drivers remain weak, but the market shows some signs of bottoming out. Future attention should be paid to whether production companies will reduce production due to losses. (8) Today, aluminum-related commodities saw a significant increase in open interest and upward movement, possibly based on positive long-term demand expectations and the recovery of the copper-aluminum price ratio, with bullish funds entering the market in large numbers. (9) Production cuts by Century Aluminum and next year's production cuts by Mozambique aluminum plants are expected to tighten overseas supply. Domestic supply is stable, but inventory reduction is slow due to high aluminum prices and weak downstream demand. (10) Overall, given the mixed macroeconomic environment and fundamental factors, the outlook for Shanghai aluminum and foundry aluminum remains unchanged, with a strategy of buying on dips. (11) Going forward, attention should be paid to the risk of mining disruptions before the Guinea elections on December 28th, and the negative feedback effect of high aluminum prices on demand.

14:21:42

[Gold Price Approaching Key Resistance Level; Breakout Could Open Upside Potential] 1. Technical analysis indicates that spot gold may once again challenge the key resistance level of $4037 per ounce. A successful breakout is expected to lead to a further rise towards the $4057-$4077 range. This potential move suggests that buying power remains active, and bulls are attempting to regain control. 2. Structurally, the rebound in gold prices from $3886 is not yet over and may currently be in the final wave of a five-wave structure. Guided by the upper trendline of an ascending wedge, the ongoing e-wave is expected to push prices towards the $4057-$4077 target area. This technical pattern suggests that the current rebound momentum continues, but caution is warranted regarding potential increased volatility at the end of the wedge pattern. 3. If gold prices fail to hold the current support, the key level below lies at $3986. A break below this level could trigger a pullback to the $3949-$3970 range. Traders should closely monitor the performance of this support area to assess the possibility of a short-term shift in market strength. 4. From a daily chart perspective, the correction in gold prices since $4381 has been constrained by two significant retracement sequences: one is a correction of the upward trend that started at $1810, and the other is a pullback to the rise from $3120. It's worth noting that after finding strong support near $3900, gold prices have now successfully broken through the $4004 level. This breakout suggests that this rebound may continue to extend towards higher targets, potentially challenging the $4084-$4199 range in the medium term.

2025-11-01 Saturday

2025-10-31 Friday

22:46:33

[Global Central Banks Bought 220 Tons of Gold in Q3, Spending $41 Billion on Jewelry] On March 30th, local time, the World Gold Council released its "Global Gold Demand Trends Report" for Q3 2025. Global gold demand reached 1,313 tons in Q3, a 3% year-on-year increase; the value of gold demand surged 44% year-on-year to $146 billion, both record highs for a single quarter. By the end of Q3, total gold demand had increased by 1% to 3,717 tons, valued at $384 billion, a 41% year-on-year increase. Investment demand dominated. Global gold investment demand surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, accounting for 55% of net gold demand in the quarter. Gold ETFs performed particularly well, with global holdings increasing by 222 tons; physical gold investment was also robust, with demand for gold bars and coins exceeding 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter. International gold prices repeatedly hit new highs. Gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.1% from $3,307.7 per ounce at the end of June to $3,873.2 per ounce at the end of the third quarter. The price surged even more sharply in October, breaking through $4,000. On October 20th, gold futures prices briefly touched a record high of $4,392 per ounce, highlighting the current market's enthusiasm for gold investment. The high gold prices have not deterred central banks' gold purchases. In the third quarter, global central banks' net gold purchases totaled 220 tons, a 28% increase from the second quarter and a 10% year-on-year increase. [Microphone] Industry insiders stated that escalating geopolitical tensions, persistently high inflationary pressures, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies have all contributed to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets. A weakening dollar, expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and the existence of stagflation risks will further support future investment demand for gold. (CCTV Finance)

22:01:08

[Spot Gold Technical Analysis] Observing the 30-minute candlestick chart, spot gold is generally exhibiting a range-bound trading pattern. The price structure shows that after the previous upward wave from a low of $3915.35 to a high of $4046.13, gold prices have recently entered a period of consolidation at higher levels. The price faces resistance at $4035.70, $4046.13, and $4060. On the downside, the psychological level of $4000.00 forms the first line of defense, with further support levels at $3988.91 and $3960.00, and the strongest support at the previous low of $3915.35. Looking at the MACD indicator, the current DIFF value is 2.24, the DEA value is 1.36, and the MACD histogram value is 1.76. Although both the fast and slow lines remain above the zero axis, indicating that the medium-term trend is still bullish, the small and converging MACD histogram values reflect a weakening of bullish momentum. From a candlestick chart analysis, the left side of the chart shows a relatively smooth upward trend, with the price steadily climbing from $3915.35 to $4046.13. During this period, it repeatedly tested support levels before continuing its upward movement, indicating a bullish dominance. However, the price encountered resistance after reaching the high of $4046.13 and subsequently fell back, entering a period of consolidation, reaching a low of $3988.91. Gold prices then rebounded again and are currently consolidating around $4020. This pattern of repeatedly testing resistance levels but failing to break through effectively reveals a weakening of bullish momentum. If gold prices cannot break through $4046.13 with significant volume in the short term, there is a possibility of a downward retest of the $4000 support level. Overall, the technical indicators on the 30-minute chart show a mixed picture of bullish and bearish forces. While the MACD is above the zero line, its momentum is weakening, and the RSI is neutral to slightly bullish but with limited upside potential. In terms of price structure, gold prices are trapped in a consolidation range between $4000 and $4046.13, and the short-term breakout direction remains unclear.

20:45:00

[Caixin Futures: Divergent Trends in Precious Metals and Non-ferrous Metals] ⑴ Market optimism faded, and funds returned to fundamental trading logic. ⑵ Weaker-than-expected earnings reports from US tech stocks triggered a decline, with funds flowing back into gold ETFs, increasing holdings by 4.3 tons. ⑶ New York gold support is at $3940, and resistance is at $4070; domestic gold support is at 900 yuan, and resistance is at 926 yuan. ⑷ The support range for the AU2512 contract has shifted down to 904-910 yuan, with a short-term trading range of 915-926 yuan. ⑸ Trading recommendations: Reduce leverage, strictly control risk, and adopt a defensive buy-on-dips strategy. ⑹ The Fed cut interest rates as expected, but Powell's remarks were hawkish, stating that a December rate cut is "not a certainty." ⑺ Copper prices fell as a result, but domestic and international copper mine disturbances continued, with supply expected to be tight. ⑻ Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, Shanghai copper still has support; maintain a buy-on-dips strategy. (9) Shanghai zinc prices retreated slightly due to hawkish comments, while LME inventory levels remained low. (10) Domestic social inventories decreased slightly but remained high, with export opportunities open and demand stable. (11) Fundamentals are gradually moving towards a tight balance, and Shanghai zinc prices may stabilize and fluctuate. (12) Overall alumina supply and demand remain relatively loose, and the pressure of oversupply has not eased. (13) The rebound is weak given high inventory levels; caution is advised when bottom-fishing. (14) Risks of mining disruptions should be guarded against before the Guinea elections. (15) Aluminum prices were suppressed by hawkish comments, but the overall macroeconomic environment is favorable. (16) Tight scrap aluminum supply and firm prices suggest continued high-level fluctuations in Shanghai aluminum. (17) The strategy is mainly to buy on dips, while lithium carbonate futures remain relatively strong. (18) Strong downstream demand supports prices, and the destocking trend continues. (19) However, the rise is more of a temporary supply-demand mismatch, and the high supply pressure remains unchanged. (20) Excessive optimism about the upside potential of the market is not advisable; attention should be paid to demand and inventory trends.

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