2026-11-05 Thursday
22:10:42
[Guotai Haitong: Logically, a partitioned government after the midterm elections is beneficial to US Treasuries, while the trends of US stocks, the US dollar, and gold are relatively uncertain] Guotai Haitong released a research report pointing out that, logically, a partitioned government after the midterm elections is beneficial to US Treasuries, while the trends of US stocks, the US dollar, and gold are relatively uncertain. Historically, partitioned governments have benefited US Treasuries, US technology stocks, and the US dollar, while gold's gains have been relatively narrower. For US Treasuries, after the midterm elections, fiscal expansion under a partitioned government may be relatively restrained, and concerns about economic expectations and fiscal sustainability will decrease, thus providing some positive impetus for US Treasury yields. For US stocks, there are both positive impetus from loose liquidity and policy stability brought about by partition, and negative impetus from declining economic momentum and increased risk of government shutdown. For the US dollar, slower economic growth and narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other countries will suppress the dollar, but decreased concerns about fiscal sustainability will lead to a relatively stronger dollar. For gold, loose liquidity under a partitioned government is beneficial to gold, but increased policy stability reduces the demand for gold as a safe haven, which is negative for gold; therefore, it is a case of both positive and negative factors. However, a review of market performance from 2000 to 2025 shows that a divided government would benefit US Treasury bonds, US tech stocks, and the US dollar, while gold's gains would be relatively smaller.
20:48:09
[Policy and Market Implications Following the Midterm Elections] ⑴ Vice President Vance attributed the Republican Party's midterm election loss to the Iran war in a social media post. Brent crude oil futures for the near month fell nearly 7% in the following hour, while the decline in oil prices helped the S&P 500 close 1.6% higher that day. ⑵ Vance's statement may indicate the end of the Iran war. The midterm elections demonstrate a power transition within the government, with the most obvious successor already identified. Even if there are short-term bombing operations, they may only be symbolic, a way to conclude the day after a victory declaration. ⑶ Democratic socialists see themselves as big winners in the midterm elections, which will pull the Democratic Party to the left. Increased political polarization will make any compromises to control fiscal disorder more difficult. The US is firmly moving towards yield curve control. ⑷ Immigration enforcement needs change, but the fundamental challenge lies in whether an administration can retroactively reverse its policy if it effectively opens the borders. This may be the biggest single policy challenge for the US and Europe. (5) Trump's major setbacks have altered the Fed's dynamics. Many who had become hawkish after Walsh took over as chairman have now waned their hawkish stance due to a decreased interest in "confronting Trump," and the currently priced-in 2027 rate hike may not materialize. (6) Brent crude oil's fair value is approximately $90 per barrel, indicating further downside potential. This week's sharp drop serves as a reminder that previous high prices were entirely risk premiums, which can be compressed instantly. (7) The dollar's rise driven by war and soaring oil prices is only a temporary phenomenon. The current equilibrium is still a weakening dollar, which has remained largely flat against emerging market currencies this year but has significantly appreciated against other G10 currencies, leaving considerable downside potential. (8) The decline in oil prices has provided breathing room for the French debt market, where previous sell-offs were linked to soaring oil prices. (9) Vance's statement suggests that "perpetual war" is no longer an option, and the medium-term trajectory of oil prices is trending downwards. This is beneficial for gold and other precious metals, which had previously faced pressure during oil price rallies.
17:34:38
[Italy Proposes Departure Tax, Contradictory Policy Signals for the Wealthy] ⑴ For the past decade, Italy has attracted global billionaires with substantial tax incentives and encouraged Italians living abroad to return home. Now, however, contradictory policy signals are emerging. ⑵ In recent years, a large influx of wealthy financiers and investors has entered Milan, while Italy is studying a departure tax proposal. ⑶ The proposal suggests levying a 26% tax on unrealized capital gains on individuals with financial assets exceeding €800,000 who relocate their tax residence overseas. ⑷ The bill is currently under review in parliament and will affect Italian citizens and long-term residents, but may not impact ultra-high-net-worth foreigners who have moved to Italy in recent years. ⑸ Even so, such a sudden policy shift could lead to the perception that Italy's wealth management rules and policy stance may change rapidly. ⑹ This could undermine the political stability and tax certainty that millionaires and billionaires value most. ⑺ A partner at an international law firm in Milan stated that, according to the current draft, this policy resembles a complex form of wealth tax. (8) This person believes that this gives the impression that Italy is becoming a "golden cage" for the wealthy. (9) The progress of the Italian parliamentary deliberations and the final scope of the policy's application need to be monitored to see how it affects the willingness of the wealthy to relocate. (10) Overall, Italy is experiencing policy tension between attracting the wealthy and strengthening wealth taxation, and tax certainty is facing a test.
15:04:01
[A-shares Rise Across the Board, Photovoltaic Equipment and Precious Metals Sectors Lead Gains] ⑴ The three major A-share indices rose across the board today. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.19%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.87%, the Beijing 50 Index rose 1.79%, and the STAR Market 50 Index rose 1.68%. ⑵ Total market turnover reached 2.1251 trillion yuan, an increase of 83.2 billion yuan from the previous day. More than 4,800 stocks rose. ⑶ In terms of sectors and themes, photovoltaic equipment, precious metals, film and television, AI corpus, and cultural media sectors led the gains; oil and gas extraction and processing, oil and gas extraction and services, port and shipping, banking, and components sectors led the declines. ⑷ On the market, the photovoltaic equipment sector performed strongly, with more than ten stocks, including Betterlife, Shichuang Energy, Junda Shares, Saiwu Technology, and Oujing Technology, hitting the daily limit. Stocks such as Jingang Photovoltaic, Maiwei Shares, and Laplace rose by more than 10%. (5) The precious metals sector performed actively, with Sichuan Gold hitting the daily limit, and Chifeng Gold, Xingye Yinxi, and Xiaocheng Technology leading the gains. (6) The film and cinema sector was active in the afternoon, with Ciwen Media and Bona Film Group hitting the daily limit, and Huace Film & TV, China Film, and Zhongguang Tianze leading the gains. (7) The coal mining and processing sector fluctuated downwards, with Guanghui Energy, China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and Jinkong Coal Industry leading the declines. (8) The oil and gas exploration and services sector also performed poorly, with CNOOC, Zhongman Petroleum, and CNOOC Services leading the declines.
13:24:37
[Spot Gold Technical Analysis (Funan County): Focus on Resistance Near 4184] 1. Spot gold has broken through the $4070 resistance level per ounce and may continue its upward trend, entering the $4188-$4281 range. This strong rebound stems from the completion of a five-wave cycle since $4696; retracement analysis shows the first target is $4184, corresponding to the 38.2% level of the $4696-$3870 decline, close to the peak of the first wave. 2. Due to strong upward momentum, the target may not be limited to $4188 and could potentially reach $4281-$4378, corresponding to the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. 3. On the hourly chart, the target of wave c, which started from $3895, is $4156, i.e., the 261.8% retracement level; pullback support is expected in the $4109-$4118 range.
10:18:16
【Spot Gold: Oscillating Downward, Sell on Rallies】 (1) Reasons for Analysis: The Democratic victory suppressed the US dollar, and the gold price rebounded sharply to around 4125. However, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in December is still high, and the rise is constrained. After the short-term bullish momentum is released, there is a need for a pullback. Overall, it is a correction in a downtrend. We are waiting for the US non-farm payroll data to be released. (2) Key Focus: US Treasury yield, US dollar index, geopolitical situation, US non-farm payroll data (3) Resistance: 4150, 4200, 4230 (4) Support: 4100, 4060, 4000;
02:30:51
Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures closed down 7.07% in night trading, at 628.40 yuan per barrel. Shanghai gold futures closed up 2.61% in night trading, and Shanghai silver futures closed up 4.82%. The recent volatility in global commodity markets, with the divergence in crude oil and precious metal prices, is typically closely related to multiple factors, including changes in international geopolitical situations, global macroeconomic expectations, and the monetary policy trends of major economies. As a crucial industrial energy source, crude oil prices are often closely linked to demand expectations, while gold and silver, as safe-haven metals, are usually influenced by a combination of factors, including risk aversion and inflation trends.
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