2026-02-20 Friday
19:41:50
[Japanese Bond Market Quietly Recovers, Overseas Funds Take Advantage of the Plunge to Buy] ⑴ Japanese government bonds strengthened across the board on Friday, with the 10-year spot bond yield falling 3.5 basis points to 2.105%, a new low since January 9. The futures market performed even stronger, with the main contract surging to an intraday high of 132.81. Market participants pointed out that the current rise is partly due to the weakening of selling momentum. ⑵ Last month's sharp sell-off was triggered by tax cut promises, but Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi now seems to be intentionally avoiding triggering another bond market turmoil. It is worth noting that, according to the latest data from the Japan Securities Industry Association, overseas accounts and large banks did not amplify fiscal concerns during last month's yield surge, but instead viewed it as a golden buying opportunity. ⑶ Overseas funds showed a net buying trend across the board in January. Data shows that foreign investors made net purchases of 2.17 trillion yen in ultra-long-term government bonds, the largest scale since April last year; net purchases of long-term government bonds were 1.59 trillion yen, and net purchases of medium-term government bonds were 2.27 trillion yen. Large banks also net bought 1.33 trillion yen of long-term government bonds, but were net sellers of medium-term government bonds for the third consecutive month. (4) Insurance institutions and regional banks chose to operate in the opposite direction, becoming net sellers of ultra-long-term government bonds. This divergence reflects significant differences in how different investors assess duration risk and yield levels. (5) In today's market, the selling of 20-year government bonds from the central public account was successfully absorbed in the morning, indicating strong market demand. In the afternoon, older bonds with maturities of 14 to 18 years received buying support, with the yield on JL184, maturing in March 2043, falling by 7 basis points from the previous day. (6) Liquidity factors amplified price volatility in some periods. The trading volume of the new 10-year bond JB381 was only 8 billion yen in the morning. Traders said that its yield falling below 2.10% reflected more the price amplification effect under sparse trading than a trend breakout. Subsequently, the yield rebounded and remained above 2.10%. (7) The interest rate market's pricing of the Bank of Japan's policy remained stable. The probability of an interest rate hike at the March meeting remained at 12.5%, while the probability of an interest rate hike at the April meeting rose to 69.5%, a slight increase from the previous day. The Nikkei 225 index fell 642 points, or 1.12%, to close at 56,825. The yen exchange rate remained around 155.17.
17:05:53
[When Will Central Banks' Gold Hoarding End? If Gold Prices Break $5790, Gold Will Become a Major Reserve Asset] ⑴ The global central bank gold-buying frenzy continues, but the market is beginning to question the limits of this trend. A financial magazine article points out that central banks currently hold approximately $13 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and 36,000 tons of official gold. At a gold price of $5500, the value of central bank gold holdings is approximately $6.37 trillion. ⑵ A key tipping point is approaching. Deutsche Bank research shows that when gold prices reach $5790, the value of central bank gold reserves will exceed their dollar reserves. This means that gold will officially become a major global reserve asset, rewriting the weighting structure of the international monetary system. ⑶ The dual interplay of interest rate environments provides a complex backdrop for gold prices. The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining stable interest rates, while the Trump administration is pushing for rate cuts. This policy divergence has made the global interest rate path and inflation outlook uncertain, strengthening gold's value as a hedging tool. (4) Central bank gold purchases have shifted from short-term hedging to long-term strategic adjustments. The narrative of de-dollarization and the demand for diversification of foreign exchange reserves have led to gold's role in reserve asset portfolios evolving from a peripheral supplement to a core weight. Even with gold prices near historical highs, some central banks continue to increase their holdings. (5) The $5,790 gold price level is not only a mathematical critical point, but could also trigger a chain reaction of asset revaluation. Once gold becomes a major reserve asset, its pricing logic will shift from commodity attributes to monetary attributes, and central banks' tolerance for gold price fluctuations and their willingness to intervene will be reshaped accordingly.
16:43:03
[Rich Dad Author Warns of Dollar Collapse; Silver to Become the Structural Metal of the AI Era] ⑴ Robert Kiyosaki, author of *Rich Dad Poor Dad*, issued a major warning, arguing that the US dollar may face its largest collapse in history, potentially plunging the global monetary system into a complex situation. In an interview, he reiterated his strong bullish stance on precious metals, pointing out that silver's rise stems not only from monetary instability but also from structural demand driven by technological prosperity. ⑵ Kiyosaki defines silver as the structural metal of the future. He mentions the rise of artificial intelligence, the widespread adoption of solar energy, and the expansion of related fields, believing that market demand for silver is endless. Against this backdrop, silver breaking through $100 is inevitable, and with continued industrial demand growth expected in 2026, it could even reach $200. ⑶ The simultaneous rise of gold and silver is interpreted as a warning signal for the US dollar. Kiyosaki cites historical patterns, pointing out that when precious metals rise together, it often signifies that the fiat currency system is nearing the end of its life cycle. He recalls his personal experience during the collapse of the Zimbabwean dollar, warning that excessive repatriation of overseas dollars could trigger hyperinflation. (4) Market sentiment is already reflected in fund flows. The latest Bank of America fund manager survey shows that short positions in the US dollar have climbed to their highest level since 2012, with traders leaning towards a de-dollarization narrative. Although hard economic data has not yet fully validated this theme, fund allocation has already reflected this shift in expectations. (5) As a protective measure, Kiyosaki not only holds precious metals, but he also emphasizes using ounces rather than dollars as a measure of wealth and stores a large amount of precious metals outside the United States. This operation reflects a substantial hedge against the potential risks of the dollar system. (6) Kiyosaki's criticism extends to monetary policy and wealth distribution. He sees the Fed's expansion of the money supply as the root cause of increased income inequality, arguing that excessive money printing is particularly damaging to the middle class. While he hopes a dollar collapse will not occur, he is making comprehensive preparations for it.
16:41:55
[BMO Strongly Promises Bullish Logic for Gold, Sounds Caution for Silver] ⑴ BMO Capital Markets has clearly shifted its bullish stance on gold. Commodity analyst Helen Amos stated that the frequent geopolitical flashpoints since January have prompted institutions to significantly shift their risk assessment of gold prices from the baseline scenario to a bullish scenario. According to BMO's calculations, gold prices could approach $6,500 by the end of 2026 and further rise to $8,600 by the end of 2027. ⑵ Multiple macroeconomic variables are converging and resonating. Amos pointed out that emerging market momentum, the trend of deglobalization, and the theme of de-dollarization are systemically beneficial to precious metals. Meanwhile, strong and stable retail and investment demand allows gold prices to quickly form solid bottoms after each correction, which is an important basis for the bullish logic. ⑶ BMO's pricing model reveals the core drivers of gold prices. Central bank gold purchases, gold ETF inflows, the US dollar index, and the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are the main variables explaining gold's performance. If investment demand continues at its current strength in the coming years, coupled with continued inflows from central banks and ETFs, it's not difficult for gold prices to reach higher levels. (4) In contrast, the outlook for silver is unsettling for institutions. Amos frankly admits to feeling uncomfortable with the current state of silver, with the gold-silver ratio being a key indicator. Silver is essentially closer to an industrial metal, and the supply and demand in the spot market may be shifting from tight to loose. Global solar energy installation growth may have peaked, which is an important industrial consumption scenario for silver. (5) Speculative factors have exacerbated the volatility risk of silver. From December last year to January this year, retail investors excessively chased the market based on the narrative of currency devaluation, coupled with a large amount of speculative funds and options trading pushing up prices, resulting in exceptionally sharp short-term fluctuations in silver. As the market has fallen back, silver has returned to reality, but the previous sharp fluctuations have not helped solidify its market reputation as a safe-haven asset. (6) The divergence in BMO's strategies is worth noting. Gold has gained a clear upward bias, supported by rising geopolitical risks, the continuation of the de-dollarization narrative, and demand from central banks and investment. Silver, however, may find it more difficult to replicate gold's upward trend in the short term if the physical market eases. Institutions recommend remaining in the metals and mining sector, but caution is advised regarding silver.
16:39:48
[Gold Prices Hold Above $5,000: Safe-Haven and Interest Rate Game Enters a New Phase] ⑴ International gold prices held steady at historically high levels. New York gold futures rose 0.7% to $5,030.70 in early trading on Friday, successfully holding the $5,000 mark. This milestone price level reflects the deep interplay between strong market demand for safe-haven assets and macroeconomic uncertainty. ⑵ Geopolitical risks are currently the core support for gold prices. The US military deployment in the Middle East and concerns about potential strikes against Iran continue to fuel safe-haven sentiment. Although the market has partially priced in this factor, as long as the risk of conflict persists, the safe-haven premium for gold will be difficult to diminish. ⑶ Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that gold prices experienced a sharp correction after hitting a record high in January, with speculative trading amplifying short-term volatility. However, the fundamental factors supporting the long-term trend of gold remain solid, including the continued existence of geopolitical risks and the strategic shift of funds from traditional assets. ⑷ Interest rate expectations remain a key variable determining the next direction of gold prices. The market is focused on Friday's release of US personal consumption expenditure data, a preferred inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, whose performance will directly impact expectations of interest rate paths. If the data falls short of expectations, it could strengthen expectations of interest rate cuts, thus boosting gold; conversely, if the data remains lackluster, it could put pressure on gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Above $5,000, gold is seeking a new balance between the logic of safe-haven demand and interest rates.
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