2026-04-09 Thursday
21:31:25
[Barclays Holds Firm at $85 Oil Price Anchor, Sluggish Strait of Hormuz Traffic Brewing Upward Risks] ⑴ Barclays stated on Thursday that the rapid normalization of traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz is consistent with its baseline forecast of $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil in 2026, but warned that any delay in traffic recovery or further escalation of the situation could push oil prices above current levels. ⑵ Barclays energy analyst Amalprit Singh pointed out that despite the ceasefire agreement, actual traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish, with recent data confirming his estimate of approximately 13 to 14 million barrels of supply disruption per day. ⑶ Barclays explicitly disagrees with the view held by some market participants that demand has adjusted sufficiently to suppress oil prices based on inventory data, believing that global inventory balance estimates were already 1 to 2 million barrels per day tighter than expected before the conflict erupted. (4) Under the baseline scenario, the inventory buffer provides ample room for demand contraction; therefore, unless a broader demand slowdown occurs, the bank maintains its forecast of an average Brent crude price of $85 this year and continues to see upside risks to prices. (5) Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday as market doubts persisted about whether the fragile two-week ceasefire agreement could guarantee the smooth flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has so far shown no signs of lifting the blockade. (6) Barclays expects the average Brent crude price to fall back to $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter under the baseline scenario, suggesting that current market prices have already largely priced in the optimistic expectation of a eventual return to normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz.
20:22:24
[Caixin Futures: Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Glass, and Soda Ash Trading with a Slight Weakness] ⑴ Crude Oil: High-level fluctuations. Shortly after the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel, and Iran, Israel attacked Lebanon, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps released a map of safe passage routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump stated that US troops remain stationed in Iran, threatening "fire" if violations are violated. The US-Iran negotiations, originally scheduled to begin on April 10 in Islamabad, face uncertainty. The short-term geopolitical game has shifted from "war" to "diplomacy," causing significant market fluctuations. Short-term high-level fluctuations in the energy and chemical sector are expected. ⑵ Fuel Oil: High-level weakness with a slight fluctuation. During the war, Middle Eastern infrastructure and oil facilities were attacked, leading to production cuts by oil-producing countries. China has a high dependence on imported high-sulfur fuel oil, with imports from Iran accounting for 20% of domestic imports. Shortly after the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US, Israel, and Iran, Iran restricted passage through the Strait, Israel attacked Lebanon, and Trump issued military threats. Geopolitical sentiment has shifted significantly, and short-term high-level fluctuations are expected. ⑶ Glass: Slightly weak. Market sentiment was weak, with companies primarily focused on digesting inventory. Daily industry output has slightly rebounded to 145,500 tons. Weekly inventory increased by 2.29% week-on-week and 15.54% year-on-year. Overall, orders for deep-processing plants remain weak, and the increase in order days is limited. Low supply and rising energy costs provide some support for prices, but weak demand expectations suggest prices will fluctuate widely without significant drivers. (4) Soda Ash: Weak. The domestic soda ash market was stable today, with moderate trading activity. Soda ash plant operations saw narrow fluctuations, with some reducing production, leading to a downward trend in supply. Weekly total soda ash inventory was 1.874 million tons, down 12,100 tons from last Thursday, while social inventory remained above 350,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. Futures-spot basis offers: Hebei warehouse delivery 05-20, Shahe 05+20, Hubei warehouse delivery 05+30, Inner Mongolia plant delivery 05-280. Overall, the medium-term supply is expected to be ample, with a weak and volatile outlook. (5) Caustic soda: Slightly weak fluctuations. Today, the price of low-degree caustic soda in Shandong was generally stable, with some companies experiencing price corrections due to warehouse receipts, and some high-priced companies slowing down shipments, leading to price declines. (6) Methanol: High-level fluctuations. Today, the spot price in Taicang was 3365, up 10, and the price in the northern part of Inner Mongolia was 2607.5, up 22.5. The near-term basis of the methanol market in Taicang, Jiangsu remained stable, while the far-term basis strengthened, indicating active demand for swaps. This week, the sample inventory of methanol at ports decreased by 0.85 million tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0.82% week-on-week, which was lower than expected. The shrinking demand for olefins also became a factor suppressing inventory reduction, and the weakening demand limited the upside potential. However, the situation in Iran has not eased, and imports continue to shrink. In addition, there is uncertainty in the US-Iran negotiations, and the market logic has changed drastically. However, the main contract saw a significant reduction in open interest, and short-term fluctuations are expected.
19:25:38
[The outcome of the Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain; analysts point to Trump's premature victory declaration as a stop-loss strategy] ⑴ Political risk analyst Ian Bremmer points out that although the initial phase of the US-Iran war ended with Trump's victory declaration, the ceasefire agreement itself reflects that the military operation has not achieved its intended objectives, and the Iranian leadership and its strategic leverage remain largely intact. ⑵ Bremmer analyzes that Trump himself has realized that this war is detrimental to his political narrative. Under the dual pressures of low domestic approval ratings and enormous costs, he lacks a military plan to substantially expand the gains, and the so-called victory declaration is actually a helpless move to stop losses. ⑶ He further states that if he were to advise Trump, he should have proactively declared victory and withdrawn a month ago, rather than waiting until the military and public opinion costs continued to accumulate before passively ending the conflict. ⑷ Trump vowed to liberate the Iranian people and control their oil resources as he would have, but in reality, the Iranian regime structure has not been shaken, and instead of gaining control of the oil, Tehran's influence on global oil supply has increased rather than decreased. (5) Bremer concluded that Iran's actual ability to intervene in oil production has surpassed pre-war levels, and the resulting economic costs and supply chain disruptions will far exceed the baseline scenario where no war had ever broken out. (6) Although the two-week ceasefire temporarily calmed the once violently volatile global energy market and regional war proliferation fears, the geopolitical rifts are far from being healed. The bargaining chips that Iran accumulated through the restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz continue to exert marginal pressure after the ceasefire.
18:39:45
[Middle East Crude Oil Benchmarks Diverge Further, Dubai Premium Slips to Monthly Low While Oman Strengthens] ⑴ The Dubai spot premium for Middle Eastern benchmark crude oil fell to a one-month low on Thursday, with the settlement price narrowing by $1.83 to $12.56 per barrel compared to swap contracts, while the premiums for Upper Oman and Murban crude oils saw slight increases. ⑵ Trading in the spot window was thin, with Unipec, as the seller, placing numerous orders and completing transactions with buyers such as Trafigura, Vitol, Mitsui, BP, and Total, with prices ranging from $99 to $102 per barrel. ⑶ The weakening Dubai premium is partly attributed to the mean reversion effect after Trafigura's strong buying in last month pushed up the base. Currently, market participants tend to maintain a light position and wait and see until the prospects for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz become clearer. (4) The settlement price of Oman crude oil futures was $101.88 per barrel, a significant rebound from $99.06 per barrel in the previous trading day. Its premium over Dubai crude also widened from $12.25 to $12.44. (5) Crude oil spot prices generally strengthened in tandem with futures, with Brent and WTI crude rising by 3% intraday. Market concerns persisted about whether the fragile two-week ceasefire agreement could guarantee the smooth flow of energy through the Hormuz. (6) Glencore chartered a tanker to load crude oil from the Middle East for shipment to Asia, while several ships in the Gulf region stood by to transit the strait. (7) Institutional calculations show that Russia's largest single oil tax revenue in April will double to $9 billion, driven by soaring oil and gas prices triggered by the US-Israeli military action against Iran. (8) Goldman Sachs lowered its second-quarter target price for Brent crude to $90 per barrel and its target price for WTI crude to $87 per barrel on Wednesday evening, as the geopolitical premium cooled temporarily after the ceasefire agreement was reached.
18:26:25
[Singapore's Fuel Oil Inventories Plunge to 10-Week Low as Strait of Hormuz Restrictions Cut Off Middle Eastern Supply] ⑴ Data released by Enterprise Singapore on Thursday showed that Singapore's onshore residual fuel oil inventories fell 7.4% to 21.72 million barrels in the week ending April 8, the lowest level in ten weeks. ⑵ The sharp drop in inventories was mainly due to a significant contraction in fuel oil imports from the Middle East. Total imports fell sharply by 31.9% week-on-week to approximately 625,000 tons, as most Middle Eastern tankers remained unable to arrive due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑶ Brazil replaced the Middle East as Singapore's largest source of fuel oil supply that week, with imports of approximately 88,600 tons. Stable arrivals from Brazil in recent weeks have alleviated market anxieties about supply shortages to some extent. ⑷ In terms of specific trade flows, Malaysia ranked first in imports with approximately 154,600 tons, followed by Iraq and Brazil. South Korea and China were the main destinations for exports, receiving approximately 99,900 tons and 80,900 tons respectively. (5) Despite inventories falling below historical averages, Singapore fuel oil spot price spreads have softened in recent trading days, indicating that the market remains cautious about the strait's reopening soon. (6) Analysts point out that if strait restrictions continue, the Asian fuel oil market will face the dual challenges of a supply gap in the Middle East and the substitution of shipping capacity from Brazil. Low-sulfur fuel oil crack spreads may continue to fluctuate widely amid supply anxieties and weak demand.
18:04:28
[Iranian Conflict Scorches Indian Bull Market, JPMorgan Chase Drastically Cuts Year-End Target for Nifty 50] ⑴ JPMorgan Chase on Wednesday lowered its year-end target for the Indian Nifty 50 index by 10% to 27,000 points, citing macroeconomic headwinds from the Iranian conflict as reshaping valuation logic in South Asian markets. ⑵ The firm also lowered its 2027 fiscal year corporate earnings forecasts for India by 2% to 10% across various sectors, having previously reduced its real GDP growth forecast by 50 basis points due to the conflict. ⑶ JPMorgan Chase noted that India's fourth-quarter earnings season is unfolding against a complex backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, soaring oil prices, a sharp weakening rupee, and significant foreign capital outflows, posing multiple severe challenges to corporate performance. ⑷ Even with a ceasefire agreement, the firm expects supply disruptions and high costs to persist for several months, with sticky inflation continuing to exert downward pressure on corporate profit margins. (5) Data shows that since the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War at the end of February, India's Nifty 50 Index has fallen by about 6%, with market sentiment and liquidity under significant pressure. (6) Based on the assessment that cost inflation has become a reality and demand risks are accumulating, JPMorgan Chase has downgraded its rating on the consumer staples sector to neutral, while explicitly stating that its portfolio allocation will be significantly tilted towards high-growth domestic cyclical industries. (7) Institutional analysts believe that as an economy highly dependent on energy imports, Indian asset prices are far more sensitive to the Hormuz stalemate and oil price fluctuations than other emerging markets. Going forward, it is necessary to closely monitor whether the rupee exchange rate can stabilize to prevent a negative feedback loop of foreign capital outflows.
18:00:49
[Sanctions as a Bargaining Tool: Exemption Extensions May Lead to a Restructuring of Crude Oil Supply Expectations] ⑴ According to a report by the US financial media Semafor, citing former Treasury and State Department officials, the Trump administration is expected to extend sanctions waivers for Russian crude oil this week. The current waiver window was originally scheduled to expire on April 11. ⑵ The aforementioned former sanctions official believes that extending the Russian oil waiver will pave the way for the Iranian oil waiver, which expires on April 19. This move signifies a functional shift in sanctions during Trump's second term, transforming them from a primary measure for exerting economic pressure into a flexible tool for gaining bargaining power amidst market volatility. ⑶ US Treasury Secretary Bessant previously explained that approving the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil already en route was intended to subtly buffer the economic impact of the Iran war and is expected to effectively increase global supply, thereby lowering oil prices. ⑷ With restricted passage in the Strait of Hormuz and over 230 oil tankers stranded, causing supply-side bottlenecks, if the US extends sanctions waivers for the two major oil-producing countries, Russia and Iran, the global marginal supply of crude oil is expected to see a phased recovery. (5) Market attention will focus on the actual tanker capacity released after the exemption extension. If the increase in supply is sufficient to offset the geopolitical premium, the short-term bullish sentiment for crude oil may experience a significant cooling and a restructuring of expectations.
17:47:54
[The Strait of Hormuz Crisis Escalates, 230 Oil Tankers Stranded, Sentimental Globally] ⑴ Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC in the UAE, stated in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz is not currently open, and passage is subject to restrictions, conditions, and controls. ⑵ He emphasized that the strait is a natural waterway governed by international law, and the right to transit should be guaranteed, demanding unconditional and unconditional opening of the strait. ⑶ Jaber warned that the longer the restrictions continue, the greater the impact on oil prices and supply chains, and restoring full and unimpeded navigation is considered key to market stability. ⑷ He further pointed out that energy security and global economic stability depend on the unconditional opening of the strait, and any form of weaponization of this crucial waterway cannot be tolerated, otherwise it will set a dangerous precedent for the world. ⑸ It is estimated that approximately 230 ships fully loaded with crude oil are currently stranded, with 80% of their cargo destined for Asia, covering an area inhabited by half of the world's population, making the situation particularly urgent for Asia. (6) Analysts believe that the Hormuz dilemma, coupled with recent demand concerns triggered by Trump's tariff rhetoric, has placed the crude oil market under dual pressure from supply-side constraints and macroeconomic risk aversion. (7) The market is closely watching Iran's response and the movements of major naval forces. Every day the Strait of Hormuz's navigation status is delayed will exponentially amplify supply delays, market tightening, and upward price pressure.
13:59:43
[Iranian Ceasefire Fails to Mask Severe Damage to Middle East Infrastructure; Supply Tights Expected to Continue] 1. While the ceasefire agreement reached between Trump and Iran has temporarily quelled the fighting, dozens of refineries, oil fields, and LNG export terminals in the Middle East have been attacked by missiles and drones, making repairs extremely complex. Experts say they have "never seen such a scale of destruction," and the global oil and gas market will face prolonged supply shortages. 2. Critical facilities severely damaged: Approximately 17% of the capacity at Qatar's Ras Lafan LNG facility has been destroyed, with full recovery potentially delayed until 2030 and repair costs estimated at $10 billion. One production line at Shell's Pearl gas-to-liquids facility will be shut down for at least a year. Kuwaiti refineries have suffered severe damage, requiring three to four months to return to full production; Bahrain's Sitra refinery has declared force majeure. 3. About one-third of refineries in the Gulf region have been damaged, with repairs expected to take at least several months. The International Energy Agency estimates that over 40 critical energy assets have been damaged, causing the largest supply disruption in history. Rezid Energy estimates repair costs to exceed $25 billion. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and other countries were forced to shut down approximately 7.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production, with sudden well shutdowns posing geological risks. 4. Supply chain bottlenecks exacerbate repair difficulties: Replacing customized transformers, valves, and gas turbines will take years, and a large number of specialized engineers and welders have already left. Wood Mackenzie stated that repair costs will crowd out approximately $100 billion in oil and gas investment in the region this year, forcing the postponement of growth projects. 5. Consulting firm Eurasia Group predicts that even if hostilities end, oil prices will remain above $80 per barrel this year. Brent crude fell to $95 per barrel after the ceasefire announcement, but is still far above the pre-war level of $60. Damage to non-energy facilities such as aluminum smelters will also push up metal prices.
09:43:47
Oil prices rebounded more than 3% on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising more than 3% to $97.96 a barrel and WTI crude rising as much as 4.2% to $98.38 a barrel. The sustainability of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remains uncertain, the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, and investors are concerned that Middle Eastern supplies may not fully recover. The ceasefire's sustainability is questionable. Israel launched its most intense airstrike to date on Lebanon on Wednesday, killing hundreds and triggering threats of retaliation from Iran. Iran suggested that continuing negotiations under these circumstances was "unreasonable." Shipping companies said they need a clearer understanding of the ceasefire terms before resuming navigation. Standard Chartered analysts pointed out that passing through the Strait of Hormuz has not suddenly become risk-free and still depends on Iran's decision. Logistical disruptions, security concerns, rising insurance premiums, and operational restrictions mean that the increase in energy passing through the strait in the next two weeks may be very limited. Oil facilities still face threats. Following the ceasefire, Iran attacked several targets in neighboring countries, including a Saudi oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE also reported missile and drone attacks. Haitong Futures points out that statements regarding the Strait of Hormuz remain contradictory.
08:28:32
[Hours before the US-Iran ceasefire: Investors bet $950 million on falling oil prices, another example of accurate betting] (1) Hours before the US and Iran announced a ceasefire, investors placed approximately $950 million bets on falling oil prices. This is the latest large-scale bet on the world's largest commodity price before Trump announced major policies. (2) At approximately 10:30 p.m. local time on Tuesday, Trump abandoned his threat to "destroy the entire civilization" and announced a two-week ceasefire agreement with Iran, causing crude oil futures to plummet by about 15% to below $100 per barrel during Wednesday's official trading session. This bet is strikingly similar to the operation on March 23, when investors sold $500 million worth of oil futures 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay in attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, after which oil prices plummeted by 15%. (3) At 7:45 p.m. local time on Tuesday, approximately 6,200 Brent crude oil futures contracts (approximately 1% of the day's trading volume) and approximately 2,400 WTI crude oil futures contracts (approximately 1%) were traded. Since the outbreak of the war, the average daily trading volume of Brent crude oil futures has more than doubled from about 300,000 lots before the war to over 1 million lots, setting a new record. Exchanges and regulators declined to comment.
Details>
