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2025-08-02 Saturday

2025-08-02

2025-08-01 Friday

11:04:12

[International Oil Prices Remain Steady, Amidst the Dual Tensions of Trade Policy and Geopolitical Risks] 1. International oil prices were largely flat in early trading on Friday, with Brent crude down 0.16% to around $71.66 per barrel and WTI down 0.06% to around $69.21 per barrel. Despite weekly gains of 4.9% and 6.4%, respectively, the market is cautiously assessing the potential impact of new US tariffs on global energy demand. US President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on dozens of economies, including Canada and India, sparking market concerns about slowing economic growth. 2. Analysts warn that the new tariffs could push up commodity prices and dampen economic activity, thereby weakening oil consumption. This concern partially offsets support from Russian supply risks. The Trump administration has threatened China and India with a 100% secondary tariff if they continue to purchase Russian crude oil. JPMorgan Chase estimates that this move could impact Russia's seaborne exports by 2.75 million barrels per day. Market insiders pointed out that sanctions on Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, may lead to a supply gap, but policy implementation faces real challenges. 3. The current oil market presents a clear pattern of bull-bear game: on the one hand, the economic slowdown expectations brought about by the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged and the impact of tariff policies are bearish; on the other hand, the risk of obstruction of Russian crude oil exports constitutes a strong support. Traders said that in the short term, oil prices may remain volatile, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the performance of US economic data and the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The strengthening of any factor may disrupt the current balance.

2025-07-31 Thursday

18:53:08

[Gas Giant Profit Warning: Weak Helium Demand and Downturn in US Manufacturing Affect Double Hits] ⑴ Air Products lowered its fourth-quarter profit forecast on Thursday and narrowed its full-year profit target. ⑵ This was primarily due to weak helium demand, project withdrawals, and the lingering impact of the previous sale of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) business, which dragged down sales. ⑶ The continued slump in US manufacturing in June weakened business and consumer confidence, directly impacting demand for Air Products' gases and related services. ⑷ The chemical industry is struggling with inventory destocking and facing weak demand in key markets such as China and Europe. ⑸ Air Products expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $3.27 to $3.47, below the average analyst estimate of $3.48. ⑹ The company now expects adjusted earnings per share of $11.90 to $12.10 for fiscal 2025, compared to the previous forecast of $11.85 to $12.15. ⑺ In the third quarter, although the sale of subsidiaries and other assets brought in $99 million in gains, this was offset by $25 million in shareholder activism-related expenses and $24 million in project shutdown cost correction charges. ⑻ During the company's reporting period, strong performance in the European and Asian markets was offset by profit pressure and sales declines in the Americas market, the latter mainly affected by weak helium demand and project exits. ⑼ Operating income in the Americas region fell 4% to $374 million, and the profit margin fell 200 basis points to 29.7%, mainly due to increased maintenance-related depreciation and previously announced project shutdowns. ⑽ Production in the region fell 6%, reflecting reduced production activity and poor helium sales. ⑾ The company reported adjusted profits of $3.09 per share in the April-June period, higher than analysts' expectations of $2.99.

18:19:04

Is the Asian Diesel Market Turning Around? Window Trading Recovers, But Refining Margins Remain Under Pressure. ⑴ The Asian middle distillate market was active during the trading window, with multiple transactions occurring in the first trading session of the week. ⑵ While market structure, spot spreads, and refinery spot sales activity remained largely unchanged, market sentiment has improved. ⑶ Some diesel cargoes remain under discussion at slight discounts for late August loading. ⑷ Refining margins for 10ppm sulfur diesel fell for the third consecutive trading day, closing at approximately $18.6 per barrel. ⑸ The trading window was primarily focused on 500ppm sulfur diesel, but a small 10ppm sulfur diesel transaction slightly dragged down cash premiums, currently assessed at $1.56 per barrel. ⑹ Regarding jet fuel, traders report that July exports from China, South Korea, and Southeast Asia may approach a five-year high, but analysts anticipate a slightly volatile trend in August. ⑺ Despite strong demand, jet fuel shipments from Northeast Asia to the US West Coast have remained low since July, with Kpler vessel tracking data indicating only approximately 150,000 tons shipped to the region in the second half of the month. ⑻ The crack spread widened slightly again, to a discount of approximately $2.65 per barrel. ⑼ Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that US crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell. ⑽ Official data showed that Singapore's middle distillate inventories rebounded to over 8 million barrels from the previous week's level, driven by a decline in net exports on a weekly basis. ⑾ The US Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iranian-linked entities and individuals, while Chevron received a limited license to operate in Venezuela. ⑿ US jet fuel demand rose by 411,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, reaching nearly 2.1 million barrels per day, the highest level since December 2017.

17:18:46

[Crude Oil Weathervane: Singapore Inventory Movements Reveal Market Truth!] ⑴ Singapore's middle distillate inventory data shows that total inventories rebounded to over 8 million barrels as of the week ending July 30. ⑵ Specific data shows that diesel/gas oil and jet fuel/kerosene inventories increased by approximately 600,000 barrels from the previous week, reaching a total of 8.458 million barrels. ⑶ This inventory rebound was primarily due to a week-over-week decline in net exports. ⑷ Net exports of gas oil and diesel fell 24% month-over-week. ⑸ Meanwhile, net exports of jet fuel and kerosene also plummeted by 37%. ⑹ Notably, total imports of gas oil and diesel surged more than fivefold from the previous week, with imports from South Korea and the United Arab Emirates being the most significant. ⑺ LSEG ship tracking data indicates that an additional 286,000 tons of oil products from South Korea and other countries are expected to arrive in Singapore in the coming week. ⑻ Despite this, the "swing barrels" from India and the Middle East, intended for shipment to Singapore next month, have not yet appeared. ⑼ Total diesel and gas oil exports fell 5% week-over-week, primarily to Australia and Indonesia. ⑽ For jet fuel and kerosene, imports from China were recorded for the first time in nearly a month. ⑾ Total jet fuel exports fell 35% week-over-week, despite some shipments to Mexico. ⑿ Trade sources revealed that this week's exports to the United States may have been sustainable aviation fuel, with approximately 33,000 tons of "green" jet fuel loaded in Singapore for the U.S. West Coast market.

2025-07-30 Wednesday

22:33:48

The EIA reported that U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories were 238,000 barrels in the week ending July 25, compared with -200,000 barrels in the previous week. The EIA reported that U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories were 238,000 barrels in the week ending July 25, compared with -200,000 barrels in the previous week. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, were 690,000 barrels in the week ending July 25, compared with 455,000 barrels in the previous week. The EIA reported that U.S. refined product imports were -110,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, compared with 312,000 barrels per day in the previous week. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil imports were 1.317 million barrels in the week ending July 25, compared with -740,000 barrels in the previous week. The EIA reported that U.S. refined oil production was 130,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, compared with 95,000 barrels per day in the previous week. The EIA reported that U.S. gasoline production was 676,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 25, compared with 282,000 barrels per day in the previous week. The EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 25 was 7.698 million barrels, compared with expectations of -1.288 million barrels and the previous reading of -3.169 million barrels. The EIA's total motor gasoline production and implied demand data for the week ending July 25 was 10.0406 million barrels per day, compared with the previous reading of 9.688 million barrels per day.

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