2026-05-29 Friday
22:01:29
[Trump Ceasefire Agreement Waiting Period Triggers Volatility in US Treasuries, Canadian Recession News Sparks Buying] ⑴ US Treasuries fluctuated overnight, falling in the Tokyo session due to month-end profit-taking and weekend risks. Prices rebounded in the London session as short covering pushed prices higher due to Trump's failure to sign a ceasefire extension agreement that would open the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ Crude oil fell 19% this week, its biggest weekly drop since 2020. Month-end buying continued into the US session, with strong buying at the CME opening, followed by hedge funds. News of a second consecutive quarter of GDP contraction in Canada, indicating a recession, triggered spillover buying from Canadian bond traders, providing additional support for US Treasuries. ⑶ Continued buying from bank trading departments, mortgage accounts, and hedge funds drove the overall buying bias, but some traders were unwilling to hold positions ahead of weekend events. Overseas speculative accounts and intraday long positions sold at higher levels, while domestic traders also took profits on their auction long positions. (4) The two-year yield was 4.018%, down 0.7 basis points, and the ten-year yield was 4.453%, down 0.2 basis points. The spread between the two-year and ten-year yields was positive 43.52 basis points, and the spread between the two-year and thirty-year yields was 96.90 basis points.
20:44:12
[Canada's Q1 GDP Contracts by 0.1% Annualized, Marking Second Consecutive Quarter Decline; Trade and Tariffs Drag Down Growth] ⑴ Statistics Canada data released Friday showed that the country's GDP contracted by 0.1% annualized in the first quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of annualized decline after a 1% drop in the fourth quarter of last year. Some market observers have termed this a technical recession. ⑵ On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Q1 GDP was flat compared to the previous quarter, narrowly avoiding the definition of a technical recession at the quarterly level. Analysts and institutions had previously expected annualized growth of 1.5%. ⑶ Statistics Canada stated that the Canadian economy has largely withstood the impact of trade uncertainty and tariffs over the past year. However, the ripple effects of tariffs have weakened investment, hiring, and spending, and pushed up prices. The upcoming review of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the oil price shock caused by the Middle East wars have added further uncertainty. ⑷ Q1 GDP was negatively impacted by high import levels, but this was largely offset by high inventory accumulation. Household spending, particularly on financial services and food, increased, but this was offset by declines in business and government investment. Business capital investment declined for the fifth consecutive quarter. (5) March GDP fell 0.1% month-on-month, worse than the expected flat reading. Statistics Canada's advance forecast indicated that April growth might be 0.4%, suggesting a strong start to the second quarter. The Bank of Canada had previously projected this year's growth at 1.2%, lower than last year's 1.7%, and will update its forecast in July.
18:49:27
[Shanghai International Energy Exchange Adjusts Trading Limits for Crude Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Futures Contracts] Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that, in accordance with the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Risk Control Management Rules" and other relevant regulations, it has decided that, starting from June 2, 2026 (i.e., the night session of June 1), the trading limits for non-futures company members, overseas special non-brokerage participants, and clients in relevant futures contracts will be adjusted as follows: The maximum number of intraday open positions for crude oil futures contracts SC2609, SC2610, SC2611, SC2612, SC2701, SC2702, SC2703, SC2704, SC2705, SC2706, SC2709, SC2712, SC2803, SC2806, SC2809, SC2812, SC2903, and SC2906, as well as subsequent newly listed contracts, will be 800 lots. The maximum number of intraday open positions for low-sulfur fuel oil futures contracts LU2609, LU2610, LU2611, LU2612, LU2701, LU2702, LU2703, LU2704, LU2705, LU2706 and subsequent newly listed contracts is 3,000 lots.
17:19:10
[Middle East crude oil spot trading is intensifying, with India making multiple purchases of Upper Zakum, Oman, and WTI crudes; Qatar Energy's monthly auction for al-Shaheen crudes reaches 6 vessels] ⑴ Several Indian refineries have recently made intensive purchases: IOC bought Upper Zakum crudes (multiple transactions, including 2 million barrels from Mercury and 1 million barrels from Totsa) and WTI crudes (2 million barrels from Vitol); BPCL bought 1 million barrels from Oman and 500,000 barrels from Upper Zakum (Totsa Dubai + 70-80 cents/barrel); MRPL bought a total of 2 million barrels from Kisanjah and Mostada (Exxon supply). ⑵ In Qatar Energy's April auction, six al-Shaheen crudes, each 5 million barrels, were purchased by Totsa (1 vessel), Reliance (3 vessels), and Shell (2 vessels) at a price of Dubai futures + 87 cents/barrel. Qatar sold 5 million barrels each of land-based and sea-based crude oil to Reliance (Dubai + $1.10) and Eneos respectively. ⑶ India's BPCL signed a long-term contract with Trafigura from April 2026 to March 2027, supplying four shipments of Oman crude oil (75 cents/barrel lower than Dubai price) and one shipment of Basra medium crude oil (40 cents/barrel lower than official selling price) per quarter. ⑷ Thailand's IRPC purchased two shipments of Das crude oil, each 500,000 barrels, supplied by Glencore and Totsa, at Dubai + approximately $1.50. ⑸ Qatar Energy's March shipment tender included four shipments of al-Shaheen crude oil, each 5 million barrels. Totsa purchased one shipment at -32 cents/barrel, and Unipec purchased three shipments at -35 cents/barrel, with a long-term price of -33 cents/barrel.
15:48:12
[Poland's May Inflation Rate Slightly Drops to 3.1%, Fuel Prices Surge 12.3% Year-on-Year] ⑴ According to preliminary data, Poland's annual inflation rate fell slightly to 3.1% in May from 3.2% in the previous month. ⑵ Despite the slowdown, price pressures in key categories remained high. Electricity, natural gas, and other fuels rose 5% year-on-year, while fuel and lubricant prices for private transportation equipment surged 12.3% amid geopolitical tensions related to the Middle East conflict. ⑶ During the same period, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose at a more modest rate of 0.5%. ⑷ On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell 0.3% in May, the first monthly decline in a year, reversing the previous month's 0.6% increase.
15:05:05
[A-Share Market Closing] ⑴ At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.11%, the Beijing 50 Index fell 3.24%, and the STAR Market 50 Index fell 5.04%. ⑵ Total market turnover was 3.3409 trillion yuan, an increase of 353.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Nearly 3,900 stocks declined. ⑶ In terms of sectors and themes, liquor, coal mining and processing, power, retail, and airport and shipping sectors led the gains; semiconductors, MicroLED concepts, new metal materials, military electronics, optoelectronics, and memory chips sectors led the declines. ⑷ The liquor sector fluctuated higher, with Jiugui Liquor hitting the daily limit, and Jinshiyuan, Shede Liquor, and Yingjia Gongjiu leading the gains. The power sector opened lower but closed higher, with Jinkong Power, Huaneng International, Shannan Electric A, Guangdong Electric Power A, Huaneng Mengdian, and many other stocks hitting the daily limit, and Jiawei New Energy rising more than 11%. (5) The retail sector performed strongly, with multiple stocks including Dongbai Group, Guofang Group, Baida Group, Ningbo Zhongbai, and Bubugao hitting their daily limit. The semiconductor sector opened higher but then declined continuously, with multiple stocks including Parex Technology, Yongxi Electronics, Cansun Semiconductor, Fudan Microelectronics, and Lihe Microelectronics falling by more than 10%. (6) The optoelectronics sector also performed weakly, trending lower throughout the day, with stocks such as BOE Technology, Rainbow Optoelectronics, and Asia Optoelectronics hitting their daily limit down.
11:34:10
【A-shares fell across the board in the morning session, with trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan. Power, retail and real estate bucked the trend and strengthened】 (1) The three major indices fell across the board in the morning session: As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.14%, the Beizheng 50 Index fell 2.46%, and the STAR Market 50 Index fell 3.63%. The total market turnover was 2.1323 trillion yuan, an increase of 337 billion yuan from the previous day, with more than 3,400 stocks falling. (2) In terms of sector gains: power, retail, liquor, real estate and coal mining and processing performed the best. The power sector opened lower and rose higher, with Jin Kong Power, Guangdong Power A and Shenzhen Nanshan Power A and many other stocks hitting the daily limit; the retail sector continued to strengthen, with Dongbai Group, Guofang Group and Baida Group hitting the daily limit; the real estate sector opened higher and strengthened, with Vanke A, Financial Street and Guangda Jiabao hitting the daily limit. (3) In terms of sector declines: MicroLED concept, semiconductor, optoelectronics, new metal materials and BC battery led the decline. The semiconductor sector opened higher but closed lower, with Fudan Microelectronics and Lihe Microelectronics among the biggest losers; BC batteries continued to decline, with Delong Laser and GRINM Powder Materials falling by more than 10%; the optoelectronic sector underwent a deep correction, with Hengtai Lighting falling by more than 20%, and many other stocks such as Fuguang Shares and Bayi Space experiencing sharp declines.
09:59:09
[US-Iran Framework Agreement Approaching, Trump Caught Between Hawks and Oil Prices] (1) US President Trump is caught in a dilemma as he seeks to end the war against Iran: on the one hand, he wants to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower domestic oil prices; on the other hand, any concessions to Tehran could provoke strong opposition from Iranian hawks within his party. (2) According to sources, a framework agreement is being drafted that includes extending the current ceasefire and removing Iran’s control over key oil shipping routes, but postpones the nuclear issue to be discussed in subsequent negotiations. If approved, the agreement would be the most important step toward peace since the US-Israel joint strike against Iran and could alleviate soaring energy prices. (3) However, influential hawks within the Republican Party (such as Graham and Cruz) are urging Trump to “get the job done” and resume strikes to cut off Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump countered that he is in no hurry and will only accept a “great” agreement. (4) Leaked memos show that the proposed agreement avoids the most difficult issues, such as the long-term status of the Strait of Hormuz, the disposal of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and details of the lifting of sanctions. Critics argue that Iran may benefit more, only promising to continue nuclear negotiations in the future. (5) Analysts point out that Trump is trying to get Iran to make key concessions while only making limited compromises in order to portray the outcome as a victory. But reopening the Strait is merely a restoration of the pre-war state, not a real achievement. (6) Trump faces dual political and economic pressures: his approval rating has plummeted to a new low, the midterm elections are approaching, and high oil prices could damage the Republican Party's chances. Iran, on the other hand, has shown greater resilience, able to withstand a military strike and the cutting off of one-fifth of the world's oil supply. (7) For a president who promised not to get involved in unnecessary wars but has dragged the United States into conflict, how he ends this war will determine his foreign policy legacy for his second term.