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2026-02-21 Saturday

2026-02-22

2026-02-20 Friday

18:55:38

[Tullow Oil Launches Comprehensive Capital Restructuring, Simultaneously Advancing West African Expansion and Debt Extension] ⑴ Tullow Oil announced a broad capital restructuring plan on Friday, along with several deals to deepen its West African operations. The heavily indebted independent oil producer is seeking stable operations and long-term growth. ⑵ The company has reached a refinancing agreement with Glencore and major holders of its May 2026 senior secured notes, extending the debt maturity by more than two years to November 2028. The notes total $1.3 billion, with approximately two-thirds of the holders participating in the restructuring. ⑶ Tullow Oil has long faced the dual pressures of declining production and delayed government payments, resulting in persistently tight cash flow. Amid rising debt, the company has been forced to cut costs to maintain operations. This debt extension will provide it with breathing room. ⑷ The company also signed two significant asset transactions. One is the acquisition of a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit serving Ghana's TEN oil field for $205 million. The CEO stated that this move will reduce fixed costs and improve long-term cash flow. Second, an agreement was reached with the Ghanaian government to extend the terms of the West Point Three and Deepwater Tano oil agreements. (5) Clear expectations for financial improvement. After completing the refinancing, the company expects to have over $200 million in free cash flow and undrawn credit lines as a liquidity buffer. This provides a financial runway for executing its business plan and creating additional value for stakeholders. (6) Production guidance indicates a slight short-term decline. The company expects average daily production in 2026 to be between 34,000 and 42,000 barrels of oil equivalent, lower than the 40,400 barrels in 2025. This guidance reflects the natural decline in the asset base and the phased nature of the investment cycle. (7) Market reactions are mixed. After rising by about 23% in the previous trading day, the company's stock price showed mixed performance in early trading on Friday. With a full-year decline of over 70% in 2025, it remains to be seen whether the capital restructuring can reverse the long-term downturn.

16:57:50

[The Geopolitical Game Behind the US-India Energy Deal] ⑴ The US is using energy supply as a core bargaining chip in its trade negotiations with India. By directly linking India's reduced purchases of Russian crude oil to tariff preferences, Washington is attempting to establish a new balance between energy flows and trade interests. Venezuelan oil's access to the Indian market has been granted by the US, becoming one of the alternative options. ⑵ As the world's third-largest oil importer, India faces a dual struggle between external pressure and internal demand in diversifying its energy sources. On the one hand, becoming Russia's largest customer for seaborne crude oil after the Russia-Ukraine conflict exposes it to compliance risks under Western sanctions; on the other hand, maintaining low import costs is crucial for its domestic economy. ⑶ The US's licensing of Venezuelan oil supplies is selective. Following the political changes in Venezuela, sales licenses were issued only to specific trading companies, rather than being fully opened. This targeted authorization allows the US to influence the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to some extent while avoiding direct involvement in energy supply negotiations with India. ⑷ The pace of the US-India interim trade agreement is linked to energy purchase commitments. The US envoy has clearly stated that India will purchase more oil from the US and may also purchase from Venezuela. This dual-track approach aims to systematically dilute Russia's share of India's energy imports, rather than simply seeking a substitute for a single supply source. (5) For India, accepting oil from the United States and Venezuela, which is licensed by the US, represents a compromise between trade preferences and diplomatic balance. Its refineries have already begun placing orders for Venezuelan crude oil while maintaining existing supply relationships with Russia. This multi-pronged procurement strategy allows it to maintain a certain degree of strategic maneuvering among major powers.

15:36:39

[US-Iran Showdown looms, oil market senses tension] ⑴ The sudden escalation of tensions between the US and Iran is dominating short-term sentiment in the crude oil market. With the US setting a deadline for nuclear negotiations and Iran conducting joint military exercises with Russia and closing the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns about conflict have intensified. On Friday, oil prices climbed to a six-month high and are on track for their first weekly gain in three weeks. ⑵ The strategic waterway faces the risk of blockade, directly impacting supply expectations. Approximately 20% of global crude oil transportation passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If conflict breaks out in the region, the channel for crude oil to enter the global market could be blocked, becoming the core logic behind bullish bets. Analysts point out that although investors are still debating whether supply will actually be disrupted, geopolitical premiums have once again become the main driver of the market. ⑶ On the supply side, fundamental data provides additional support. Latest data shows a significant decrease of 9 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, mainly due to increased refinery utilization and exports. Meanwhile, discussions within OPEC+ favoring a resumption of production increases starting in April are interacting with the bullish factors brought about by the current tensions. (4) However, macroeconomic pressures limited further upside potential for oil prices. The market is focused on the interest rate path of the world's largest oil consumer. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggested that if inflation persists, interest rates may be maintained or even raised further, which could suppress medium- to long-term demand. Institutional views indicate that the supply glut that began in the second half of 2025 continued in January, and this trend is likely to continue. If demand fails to keep pace, the market will face a significant supply glut later this year, requiring substantial production cuts to prevent a large increase in inventories. In the short term, geopolitics plays a role; in the long term, the balance of supply and demand matters. The game for oil prices is far from over.

2026-02-19 Thursday

20:33:56

[20 Million Barrels of Oil Hang in the Balance: Strait of Hormuz Becomes Focus of US-Iran Standoff, Oil Prices Plunge] ⑴ Approximately 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, equivalent to nearly one-fifth of global oil demand. This deep-water channel between Iran and Oman has become the focus of the US-Iran standoff and a key driver of the recent surge in oil prices. ⑵ Analysts point out that disrupting tanker traffic or completely closing the strait are possible ways Iran might retaliate against US strikes. Earlier this week, Iranian state media announced that the strait would be partially closed due to "security precautions." Brent crude rose more than 1% on Thursday, climbing from below $60 in early January to above $70. ⑶ The US has amassed its strongest air force in the Gulf region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and its navy has deployed 13 ships in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Although the US and Iran held talks in Geneva this week, with the White House claiming "some progress," the two sides "remain significantly different." Iran is expected to present more detailed proposals in the coming weeks. (4) In 2024, nearly 40% of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz came from Saudi Arabia. Although Saudi Arabia has pipelines bypassing the strait, there is no alternative route for most of the oil passing through this waterway. Of the daily throughput, about three-quarters is crude oil and one-quarter is refined petroleum products, with Iran itself exporting about 1.5 million barrels per day.

17:59:10

[Middle East crude oil benchmark Dubai rises for fifth consecutive day, driven by strong demand from Total and Mercuria] ⑴ On Thursday, the price of Dubai crude oil, the Middle East benchmark, rose for the fifth consecutive trading day, mainly supported by strong demand from Total Energy and Mercuria. The two companies purchased a total of 106 shipments in Dubai swap transactions on the day, resulting in the French energy giant receiving three shipments and a European trader receiving one physical shipment. ⑵ The Singapore oil market was closed on Tuesday and Wednesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, but trading was active after resuming today. The premium of Dubai spot to swaps rose to $1.09 per barrel, up 5 cents from Monday's close. ⑶ In terms of trading dynamics, Shell will deliver one shipment of Upper Zakum crude oil each for April loading to Mercuria and Total Energy, while Total will also receive one shipment of Oman crude oil from Vitol. Phillips 66 will deliver one shipment of Dubai crude oil for April loading to Total. ⑷ In terms of tenders, India's MRPL has issued a tender seeking to purchase up to 2 million barrels of crude oil, with the tender closing on February 18. The company purchased Kissange and Mostada crude oil from ExxonMobil in its last tender. Furthermore, data shows that the share of Russian crude oil in India's imports has fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2022, while the share of Middle Eastern crude oil has risen to its highest level in the same period. China's imports of Russian crude oil in February are expected to climb to a new high for the third consecutive month.

2026-02-18 Wednesday

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

5098.85

103.02

(2.06%)

XAG

84.227

5.873

(7.50%)

CONC

66.31

-0.09

(-0.14%)

OILC

71.58

-0.31

(-0.44%)

USD

97.807

-0.045

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

1.1785

0.0012

(0.10%)

GBPUSD

1.3484

0.0021

(0.16%)

USDCNH

6.8955

-0.0024

(-0.04%)