2026-09-18 Friday
22:45:58
[EU's First Large-Scale Carbon Storage Facility Launched in Denmark] Denmark launched the "Green Sands" carbon capture and storage facility in the North Sea on the 18th, injecting carbon dioxide into seabed reservoirs. As the first large-scale carbon dioxide storage project in the EU, "Green Sands" is expected to store 400,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually in its first phase. INEOS, the company leading the project, stated in a press release on its website that the carbon dioxide will be stored on the seabed below the abandoned Niniwest oil field, approximately 250 kilometers off the west coast of Denmark, at a depth of about 1,800 meters below the seabed. In its first phase of commercial operation, the "Green Sands" project can store up to 400,000 tons of carbon dioxide annually. With increasing demand, the storage capacity is planned to expand to 4 to 8 million tons per year by 2030. (Xinhua)
21:24:27
[US Industrial Production Flat in August, Below Expectations] ⑴ US industrial production was flat in August, compared with a 0.2% increase in July, below the market expectation of a 0.3% increase. ⑵ Manufacturing output, which accounts for about 78% of total industrial output, fell 0.3%, ending seven consecutive months of growth. ⑶ Mining activity rose slightly by 0.1%, while utility output increased by 1.8%. The utility growth was mainly driven by strong electricity production, which outpaced the decline in natural gas utilities. ⑷ Capacity utilization was 76.3%, unchanged, still 3.1 percentage points below the long-term average from 1972 to 2025.
20:44:04
[Limited Impact of Saudi Supply Disruption, European Crude Oil Import Structure Provides Buffer] ⑴ Saudi Arabia has notified European refineries that it will not receive crude oil deliveries next month, constituting a short-term supply downside. ⑵ However, Saudi Arabia accounts for only about 6.8% of European oil imports, so the actual impact is relatively manageable. ⑶ The top three import sources are the United States, Kazakhstan, and Norway, each accounting for approximately 12% to 15% of the EU's total oil imports. ⑷ From a market sentiment perspective, the diversification of sources has alleviated the panic of a single supply disruption to some extent. ⑸ However, the transportation distance and quality differences of alternative oil sources may push up refining costs, while the crack spread for refined oil products still provides support. ⑹ Going forward, attention should be paid to whether the United States, Norway, and other countries can increase supply to fill the gap, as well as the tightness of diesel and natural gas inventories during the winter. ⑺ Overall, the supply gap is more of a structural tension than a comprehensive shortage.
20:36:58
[Rumors of Russian Gas's Return to Germany Emerge, Intertwined with Geopolitical and Political Games] ⑴ Sources indicate that the Russian President's chief economic envoy and the leadership of Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) have begun preparations for a meeting next year to discuss resuming gas supplies to Germany. ⑵ The talks could take place as early as March next year, provided that Russia and Ukraine first reach a peace framework agreement. ⑶ Participants include the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund and close advisor to Putin, Dmitriev, as well as AfD co-chairs Weidel and Churupala. ⑷ Organizers hope this will facilitate contact between the AfD, Russia, and the United States. ⑸ Possible locations include Israel, the UAE, or India. ⑹ This move highlights the close relationship between Moscow and the AfD, currently the most popular political party in Germany based on voter support. ⑺ Before Western sanctions in 2022, Russia supplied more than half of Germany's gas imports. ⑻ From a market sentiment perspective, any expectation of Russian gas's return could influence European gas prices and refinery feedstock cost expectations. (9) However, whether the talks can be finalized depends on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace framework, and the short-term substantive impact is limited. (10) The reaction of mainstream German political parties and whether the EU's stance on sanctions will soften need to be monitored. (11) Overall, this seems more like a political signal than an immediate supply-side shift.
20:36:33
[Saudi Crude Oil Supply Disruption to Europe: European Refineries Face a Major Test Before Winter] ⑴ Saudi Aramco has notified at least two European refineries that they will not receive crude oil deliveries next month; this decision reportedly applies to all European buyers. ⑵ The market had previously hoped that Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline would restore about half of its capacity and resume loading to Europe, but this hope was dashed before the weekend. ⑶ This pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and transporting crude oil to Red Sea export terminals, is crucial for restoring European energy supplies. ⑷ The supply disruption will force refineries to seek alternative sources in other regions and push up crude oil prices in the international market. ⑸ This could increase feedstock costs, adding pressure to the European refined product market before the Northern Hemisphere winter. ⑹ The latest data from the International Energy Agency shows that OECD countries imported approximately 577,000 barrels of Saudi crude oil per day in June. ⑺ Some European buyers have already begun scrambling for supplies; Örön, Poland, issued more than 10 tenders this week seeking alternative supplies. (8) The shutdown of the east-west pipeline due to the drone attack earlier this month has significantly impacted the oil market, which had already seen Brent crude futures break through $100 per barrel. (9) Saudi Arabia had been operating this 7 million barrel per day pipeline at full capacity since the US-Iran conflict. (10) The turmoil in the Middle East has led JPMorgan's commodities chief to admit that this is the first time since the Iranian conflict that there is no baseline scenario, making it difficult to model the endgame. (11) On Friday, Brent crude traded at around $103, WTI at around $101, and the US diesel crack spread at around $112. (12) The global refining crisis is raising concerns about a repeat of the 2008 gasoline shock, and tight diesel and natural gas inventories limit the margin for error during the winter.
20:21:32
[Maersk Orders Dual-Fuel Vessels, Accelerating Green Transformation] ⑴ Maersk announced an order for 26 large container ships as part of its fleet renewal plan. ⑵ These vessels will each have a capacity of approximately 18,600 TEUs and will all be equipped with dual-fuel engines capable of using liquefied natural gas (LNG). ⑶ The new ships are expected to be delivered gradually between 2029 and 2030, meaning that capacity will be released gradually over the next few years. ⑷ From a market sentiment perspective, this move signals that the shipping giant remains confident in medium- to long-term container shipping demand. ⑸ The dual-fuel configuration continues the shipping industry's carbon reduction strategy, further strengthening the role of LNG as a transitional fuel. ⑹ However, the large-scale new ship order has also raised concerns about long-term capacity oversupply, especially against the backdrop of slowing demand growth. ⑺ Going forward, attention needs to be paid to whether the delivery schedule and the scrapping speed of older vessels can offset each other, as well as the follow-up of fuel supply facilities. ⑻ For investors, green ship capital expenditures will impact Maersk's free cash flow and depreciation pressure. (9) If liquefied natural gas prices remain volatile, the economic viability of dual-fuel operations remains uncertain, potentially dragging down the return on investment cycle. (10) Overall, this order balances compliance and competitiveness, but the capacity to absorb the excess capacity will be the key to its success.
19:21:41
[Oil Market Enters a "Shrug" Moment, Uncertainty Dominates Trading and Mergers] ⑴ One institutional researcher bluntly stated in a report that for the first time since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict, there is no baseline view, and it is unclear how to model the endgame. Although the wording is unusually straightforward, this sentiment is shared to varying degrees by market participants. ⑵ Market observers have accepted the reality that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the volume of oil passing through will remain chaotic in the coming months, and continued disruption to Middle Eastern crude oil will continue to erode the market's buffer capacity. ⑶ The institution initially assumed that the White House would not cross certain economic red lines, including oil prices around $100, gasoline prices approaching $5 per gallon, and the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5%. However, six months later, many red lines have been crossed, and the exit strategy is even more unclear. ⑷ However, the institution believes that the decline in oil demand has played a greater role than expected in alleviating supply pressure, slowing the depletion of oil inventories in various countries. Therefore, concerns about near-depletion of inventories are premature, and there is still sufficient buffer to keep prices relatively under control. ⑸ Even so, soaring energy costs and shortages continue to cause pain, anger, and turmoil in many countries around the world. (6) Uncertainty also impacts transaction activity. High and volatile prices are disrupting mergers and acquisitions in the exploration and production sectors. Conflict is both a headwind and a tailwind; high prices are prompting more companies, including US shale producers, to test the market. (7) The global M&A market opportunity value has ballooned to approximately $137 billion, but price volatility is widening valuation expectation gaps, making deals more difficult to complete. More flexible agreement structures and stronger safeguards are expected to emerge to mitigate commodity price and delivery risks. (8) Some analysts have concluded that oil price volatility has created a deeper collection of opportunities, but it has also made deals more difficult to execute.
19:18:11
[Global Interest Rate Repricing, AI Industry Risk Discussions, and Long-Term Test for Crude Oil] ⑴ Several central banks worldwide shifted towards tightening this week. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years, increasing the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%, releasing a hawkish signal; the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged but made a hawkish statement, with the market betting on a possible rate hike in November; the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but due to two members voting against it, the market questioned the strength of its tightening, and the yen subsequently fell to a two-week low. ⑵ Executives of leading AI companies called for a slowdown in technology research and development, triggering short-term market concerns. If investment in computing power infrastructure contracts, it will impact the chip and data center related industrial chains. However, given the geopolitical competition, the probability of a significant slowdown in the industry is not high; AI-related indices have significantly outperformed the global market since 2022. ⑶ Continued geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are disrupting crude oil supply. Shipping risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have increased, Saudi oil pipelines have been attacked, and supply from the Strait of Hormuz is restricted. Brent crude oil remains above $99 per barrel, and the short-term supply shock has evolved into a long-term test. (4) The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond broke through a key psychological level, reaching 5.02%, a multi-year high. As a global asset pricing benchmark, the rising yield pushes up financing costs for various types of bonds, including mortgages and corporate bonds, reflecting the combined effects of the US economic resilience, inflationary pressures, and fiscal deficit. (5) The global diesel supply gap widened further, with refining margins hitting a new high in August, and the average price of diesel in the US exceeding $5.9 per gallon. Damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia suppressed exports, the ceasefire agreement on energy facilities between Russia and Ukraine fell short of expectations, and the recovery of refining capacity will take a considerable amount of time.
19:12:46
[LNG Surpasses Pipeline Gas as the Major Global Natural Gas Trade Method] ⑴ In 2025, the total cross-border natural gas trade volume is approximately 899 billion cubic meters, of which inter-regional LNG trade is approximately 495 billion cubic meters, representing a year-on-year increase of about 6%, surpassing inter-regional pipeline gas trade for the first time. ⑵ Inter-regional pipeline gas trade is approximately 404 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of about 4%. ⑶ Major LNG exporting countries are the United States (approximately 147 billion cubic meters), Qatar (approximately 111 billion cubic meters), Australia (approximately 105 billion cubic meters), Russia (approximately 43 billion cubic meters), and Malaysia (approximately 37 billion cubic meters). ⑷ Major pipeline gas exporting countries are Norway (approximately 115 billion cubic meters), Russia (approximately 102 billion cubic meters), the United States (approximately 94 billion cubic meters), Canada (approximately 87 billion cubic meters), and Turkmenistan (approximately 38 billion cubic meters). (5) Regarding liquefied natural gas imports, Japan imported approximately 89 billion cubic meters, and South Korea imported approximately 63 billion cubic meters. (6) Regarding pipeline gas imports, the United States ranked first with approximately 87 billion cubic meters.
19:01:11
[Next Week's Focus: Interest Rates, Middle East Tensions, and Calls for a Slowdown in AI Development] ⑴ US stock market investors will be watching interest rate trends, Middle East tensions, and renewed calls for a slowdown in artificial intelligence development next week to assess whether stock indices can reach new highs. ⑵ The market will continue to digest the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to raise interest rates for the first time in three years, a move aimed at curbing inflation above target levels. Although the rate hike was widely expected, investors remain uncertain about how many times the Fed will ultimately raise rates and how this will affect already rising US Treasury yields. ⑶ In recent weeks, stock market movements have been influenced by rising US Treasury yields and soaring oil prices as the Middle East conflict escalates. ⑷ A chief market strategist stated that a 5% yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond and oil prices reaching $100 per barrel constitute a psychological watershed. ⑸ The strategist said that below these levels, market participants can breathe a sigh of relief and become more actively involved, while above these levels, as has happened in the past four or five weeks, the market finds these headwinds difficult to overcome. (6) On Thursday, as oil prices and yields fell and stocks rose, U.S. crude oil prices fell to about $101 a barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.93% at the end of the day.
15:39:37
[Oil Prices Fall for Third Consecutive Day as Saudi Supply Concerns Ease] 1. International oil prices fell about 2% on Friday, marking the third consecutive trading day of decline and nearing a one-week low. This week is on track for the first weekly drop in three weeks. Market concerns about Saudi supply disruptions eased, outweighing worries about the escalation of the Middle East conflict. As of 3:30 PM, Brent crude futures fell as much as 2% to $101.97 per barrel, while US crude futures for September delivery fell as much as 2.35% to $99.52 per barrel. 2. Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi rebels clashed again on Thursday, expanding the front lines of the Middle East war, but the market largely ignored concerns about new supply threats. Oil prices had previously climbed to a near four-month high this week. Sources said that Saudi Arabia had cancelled some crude oil supplies to Europe due to the suspension of crude oil loading operations at Yanbu, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export hub, and damage to the east-west pipeline last week. 3. However, reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is seeking to restore approximately half of the capacity of its east-west oil pipeline within days and is increasing crude oil supplies to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transshipment near the port of Sohar in Oman, causing oil prices to fall. Priyanka Sachdeva, Director of Market Insights at Phillip Nova, stated that Saudi Arabia's recent efforts to restore export capacity have alleviated current supply concerns to some extent. 4. Sources hold differing opinions on when the pipeline will resume operation and when crude oil supplies will return to normal. Analysts point out that oil prices remain above $100 per barrel as the market awaits clear signs of improved supply. 5. Iranian state media reported earlier on Friday that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that a Togolese-flagged oil tanker was attacked on Thursday while attempting to "illegally transit" the Strait of Hormuz.
11:26:48
[South Korean President Says He Will Not Send Troops to the Strait of Hormuz to "Intervene in War"] On the 18th local time, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated at a press conference regarding whether he would send troops to the Strait of Hormuz that South Korea "will not send troops to participate in or intervene in a war," and that he would study measures to strengthen the protection of South Korean merchant ships, oil transport routes, and the safety of its citizens. At the press conference held at the Blue House that day, Lee Jae-myung stated that South Korea has always adhered to the principle of "not sending military forces to participate in or intervene in war," and this principle will not change in the future. However, he stated that South Korea "must also, like other countries, carry out the minimum necessary activities to protect its own merchant ships, oil transport routes, and the safety of its citizens." He said that South Korea has already dispatched troops to deal with threats to the safety of South Korean citizens, such as piracy, and "in fact, we are studying and seriously considering further strengthening related capabilities." Lee Jae-myung emphasized that there seems to be concern that South Korea sending troops would mean intervention in or support of a war, or even the dispatch of combat troops; he reiterated that South Korea will not send troops to participate in a war. (CCTV News)
10:06:20
【US Crude Oil: Range-bound, buy on dips, sell on rallies】 (1) Reasons for analysis: WTI has fallen back to around $96, declining for three consecutive days. The Saudi East-West Pipeline is expected to partially resume, and some crude oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns marginally. However, Middle East risks remain high, and there is geopolitical premium support for oil prices. The EIA inventory decline was lower than expected, and demand pressure still needs to be monitored. In the short term, it will return to range-bound trading and wait for stabilization. (2) Key focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US dollar index (3) Resistance: 97.00, 98.00, 100.00 (4) Support: 96.00, 95.50, 95.00
09:37:53
[National Energy Administration and Other Departments Deploy Work to Ensure Stable Coal Production and Supply] Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the National Mine Safety Administration jointly issued a notice outlining multiple measures to accelerate the stable production and supply of coal. The notice states that all coal-producing provinces (autonomous regions) and coal enterprises must, under the premise of ensuring safety, make every effort to ensure stable coal production and supply, continuously strengthen monitoring and scheduling, optimize production organization, actively and steadily promote the resumption of production at coal mines, accelerate the acceptance of coal mines undergoing joint trial operation, and promote a steady recovery in coal production to provide strong support for economic growth and energy supply. The notice also sets requirements for the signing and fulfillment of long-term contracts for thermal coal, leveraging the supplementary role of imports, and promoting the construction of successor coal production capacity. Next, relevant departments will strengthen overall coordination, guide all coal-producing provinces (autonomous regions) and coal enterprises to promptly implement various work deployments, adjust and improve policies and measures, release coal production capacity reserves in a timely manner, and make every effort to stabilize coal production and supply and promote stable market operation. (National Energy Administration)
09:14:25
[JPMorgan Chase: Oil Market Outlook Unpredictable, Demand Shrinkage Temporarily Restrains Price Gains] 1. JPMorgan Chase stated on Thursday that for the first time since the start of the US-Israel war in Iraq, it was unable to make a clear baseline judgment on the oil market. Analysts said, "We simply don't know how to predict the ultimate outcome of this conflict." The bank noted that oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel, with US gasoline prices reaching $4.37 per gallon and diesel prices hitting a record high of $6.31 per gallon, while inventories are at historically low levels. 2. JPMorgan Chase estimates that the fair value of Brent crude in September is approximately $90 per barrel, while the current price is close to $104, indicating that the market is priced in the risk of supply disruptions expanding further from the currently estimated 10 million barrels per day. Risks in the Middle East are also escalating, including threats to shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and recent attacks affecting Saudi export routes. 3. However, despite the significant scale of supply disruptions, oil price increases have not been as dramatic as expected. Since the outbreak of the conflict, global crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased by approximately 555 million barrels, only about one-third of the decline previously predicted by JPMorgan Chase; global oil demand is about 4.4 million barrels per day lower than the same period last year. JPMorgan Chase stated that the market is relying more on shrinking demand than depleting inventories to absorb supply disruptions, thus the average price of Brent crude since the conflict has been only $94 per barrel. 4. The International Energy Agency stated last week that the decline in global oil supply and demand this year may both exceed previous expectations. In contrast, OPEC, despite lowering its forecast for the fifth consecutive month, still expects global oil demand to grow by 380,000 barrels per day in 2026. 5. JPMorgan Chase stated that China, Europe, Japan, and South Korea still have large inventories available, which can provide a buffer against prolonged supply disruptions. However, if Middle East supply disruptions persist, oil prices may rise later this year as inventories further decline and the market increasingly relies on shrinking demand to maintain balance. The bank concluded: "There is still enough 'ammunition' to curb rising oil prices, at least for now."
06:24:13
[Iran Stances Tough: Reopening of Strait of Hormuz Requires Trump and Netanyahu's Resignation] 1. Iran has once again escalated tensions with the United States and Israel, directly linking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the resignation of Trump and Netanyahu. This warning from Mohammad Bagher Zorchader, political advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, comes as regional tensions continue to rise and the passage of this strategic sea route is severely restricted. 2. Zorchader made these remarks in a statement commemorating 200 days of continuous protests by the Iranian people, describing the period as a phase of resistance and determination, and emphasizing that the struggle will continue to defend the nation's survival, identity, independence, and aspirations. The most emphasized part of his statement warned: “Unless the criminal Trump and the bloodthirsty Netanyahu step down, our warriors will never reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first phase of the Iranian people’s revenge.” 3. The advisor mentioned the Iranian people killed in the attacks during the conflict, including civilians and soldiers, specifically mentioning the children killed in Minabu, the teenagers killed in Ramerd, the soldiers killed in Banpur, and the crew of the warship “Dina.” He stated that Iran seeks revenge for the deaths caused by these attacks and will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz as the first phase of its response. This move increases pressure on this vital passage to international energy markets. 4. The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and is one of the world’s main routes for oil and gas transport. Trade volumes have dropped sharply in recent days, with preliminary maritime tracking data showing only three merchant ships passing through the strait on Wednesday. Iran claims to have attacked 10 ships and continues to tighten navigation restrictions in the region in an attempt to enhance its pressure-making capabilities in the conflict. 5. The escalation of the military conflict has also affected US facilities in Jordan. The US previously attacked five Iranian oil tankers, after which Iran attacked the Mowafak Salti airbase, damaging several US aircraft. According to CBS News, approximately eight F-15 fighter jets were returned to service with minor damage, while one A-10 attack aircraft was hit, sustaining significant damage to one wing. No US personnel were reportedly injured in the operation.
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