Sydney:12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo:12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong:12/24 22:26:56

Singapore:12/24 22:26:56

Dubai:12/24 22:26:56

London:12/24 22:26:56

New York:12/24 22:26:56

2026-11-06 Friday

2026-11-06

10:26:20

[Saudi Aramco Cuts December Asian Arab Light Crude Price by $2 to Six-Year Low] (1) Saudi Aramco on Friday cut its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asian customers by $2 per barrel in December compared to November, widening the discount to the Oman/Dubai average to $6.50 per barrel, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began in May 2020. (2) Pricing documents show that Saudi Aramco also cut the price of all grades of crude to Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $1 per barrel in December, while keeping the price unchanged in the U.S. market. (3) A survey last week showed that due to ample Middle Eastern crude oil supply and weak spot premiums, market participants had expected Saudi Aramco to keep Asian prices unchanged or cut them by up to $2 per barrel to attract buyers. (4) This week, the spot premium for benchmark Middle Eastern crude oil fell back to pre-war levels before the U.S.-Israel war against Iran; despite an increase in attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, increased exports from oil-producing countries boosted supply, while cooling refining margins in Asia also dampened buying interest. (5) HSBC said that the recovery in exports was faster than expected, and raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production in the fourth quarter from 6.3 million barrels per day to 8.3 million barrels per day; it also raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia’s production in 2027 from 8.8 million barrels per day to 9.8 million barrels per day, and expects Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production to recover to about 10 million barrels per day by mid-2027.

2026-11-05 Thursday

21:29:41

[US Treasury Outlook: Election Shift Unlikely to Change Cycle, AI Bubble and Oil Prices Present Double Challenges] ⑴ Following the Democratic Party's major victory in the election, oil prices fell by nearly 9%, leading to a sharp drop in US Treasury yields on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year yield fell by 6 basis points and again below 4.90%, suggesting the market believes a tougher Congress may prompt Trump to tone down his tariff rhetoric. ⑵ This optimism may be untenable. Trump has largely bypassed Congress in the past two years, and Tehran and its allies may be encouraged by the election results, making a renewed escalation of the situation more likely than less probable. ⑶ Oil prices appear to have found a technical bottom around $87, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converge, reinforcing the $87-$100 range. If Friday's key non-farm payroll and wage data show an unexpected upward trend, the 10-year yield could quickly rebound to around 5%. ⑷ Some argue that the current situation is more like the twilight of a cycle than a new dawn, with the aging business cycle and excessive expansion of the financial cycle overlapping. The artificial intelligence investment bubble amplifies this distortion, and the US has not experienced a downturn since the financial crisis, except for the pandemic recession. (5) The estimated $10 trillion investment in AI infrastructure by 2032 far exceeds previous technological revolutions. Hyperscale cloud vendors are shifting from positive to negative free cash flow, while financing costs remain high and borrowing demand is surging. (6) Reportedly, the cost of debt default insurance for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Broadcom has reached record highs. CCC-rated pressure is spreading to single-B-rated debt, and the private credit default rate has risen to 6.3%. The US AI boom is increasingly reliant on debt financing, and the risks have already spread to pension funds, annuities, and banks. (7) A Democratic landslide victory may accelerate the retreat of AI deals. Texas, Georgia, and Ohio account for more than 40% of planned data center capacity, and newly elected Democratic governors may tighten scrutiny on permits, environmental regulations, and electricity pricing. (8) Congressional Democrats may also push for AI safety barriers, expand legal liability, and restrict data center expansion. OpenAI's latest commitment to community consultation and construction transparency shows that the industry has recognized the shift in the political winds. (9) Wall Street's narrative that the deadlock is beneficial and that growth will spread beyond artificial intelligence ignores the possibility of investigations, impeachment, government shutdowns, and debt ceiling negotiations. Trump's executive and veto powers remain significant obstacles to substantive policy changes. (10) Strategically, the 10-year yield is likely to trade between 5.05% and 4.80%, with a tactical selling point around 4.81% and a strategic buying point above 5%. Intraday focus should be on the 4.90% to 4.83% range. (11) Thursday's data includes the Challenger layoffs report, weekly initial jobless claims, and preliminary Q3 productivity and cost estimates. Several Fed officials will speak, and the Treasury will announce short-term debt issuance arrangements and conduct repurchase operations.

20:41:18

[Highlights for Thursday's Second Half: Fed Officials' Speeches and After-Hours Earnings Reports] ⑴ At 20:50 Beijing time, Cleveland Fed President Hammark speaks; at 21:10, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks. ⑵ At 21:20 Beijing time, the New York Fed conducts Treasury bill purchases; at 22:30, the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases natural gas storage data, with the previous figure showing an increase of 80 billion cubic feet. ⑶ At 23:00 Beijing time, the Treasury Department announces the Treasury bill auction schedule; at 23:30, 4-week and 8-week Treasury bills are auctioned; at 2:00 AM the following day, the Treasury Department conducts repurchase operations. ⑷ At 4:30 AM the following day, the Federal Reserve releases its weekly balance sheet report. ⑸ After the US stock market closes, several technology, energy, healthcare, and consumer companies release earnings reports, covering sectors such as cloud security, enterprise software, optical networks, quantum computing, voice AI, consumer credit, and rare earth supply chains. ⑹ At 7:00 AM the following morning, Dallas Fed President Logan speaks on artificial intelligence and the future of the workforce. (7) Throughout the day, pay close attention to the trend of US Treasury yields, post-election market reaction, AI stock performance, oil prices, and geopolitical news. (8) The October non-farm payroll report will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 22:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will speak at 0:15 the following morning, Baker Hughes drilling rig count will be released at 1:00, and consumer credit data will be released at 3:00.

2026-11-04 Wednesday

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4045.37

-43.43

(-1.06%)

XAG

51.481

-0.304

(-0.59%)

CONC

92.19

1.67

(1.84%)

OILC

100.67

1.53

(1.54%)

USD

101.750

0.157

(0.15%)

EURUSD

1.1198

-0.0020

(-0.18%)

GBPUSD

1.3432

-0.0016

(-0.12%)

USDCNH

6.6659

0.0013

(0.02%)