2026-07-17 Friday
21:20:13
[US-Iran military confrontation continues to escalate, crude oil prices see significant weekly gains; institutions warn of significantly increased supply disruption risks] ⑴ The US continues to strike Iranian military targets, and Iran fires at strongholds in other Gulf countries, escalating geopolitical conflict and driving crude oil futures higher, with a considerable gain expected this week. ⑵ Institutional analysis points out that recent events largely align with the baseline scenario of "a bumpy recovery of oil flows with intermittent bursts," but the increased intensity of the conflict has significantly increased the probability of a more unfavorable scenario. ⑶ The so-called more unfavorable scenario refers to the possibility of a prolonged and substantial disruption to oil transport routes, further compressing the global supply buffer. The market has not yet fully priced in this tail risk. ⑷ From a trading psychology perspective, oil prices have responded positively to each military engagement, but if the attack expands to oil production or key transshipment facilities, price elasticity will shift from the previous geopolitical premium repair to a supply gap pricing model, and volatility is expected to rise further.
18:16:12
[Geopolitical tensions failed to trigger a surge in oil prices; supply surplus expectations suppressed gains] ⑴ Despite the US attack on Iran early Thursday morning escalating the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Brent and WTI crude oil futures only retreated by about 0.8% after three consecutive days of gains, remaining near one-month highs. The market's marginal pricing of geopolitical events has become less pronounced. ⑵ US domestic crude oil production continues to remain near a historical high of 13.5 million barrels per day. Coupled with supply expansion in Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, multiple forecasting agencies still expect the market to maintain a surplus until the end of 2026, significantly mitigating concerns about supply disruptions. ⑶ Demand increases are expected to be around 1.2 million barrels per day, largely in line with previous assessments. Against the backdrop of global refining bottlenecks and macroeconomic headwinds, investors are cautious in pricing the supply-demand gap, unwilling to overly bet on geopolitical risks alone pushing up the price level. (4) Mexican blended oil exports also fell, indicating that the current shock has not significantly widened the regional price gap. If subsequent US military actions do not substantially cut off Iran's export capacity, the upside potential of oil prices will continue to be suppressed by the fundamental oversupply logic.
18:12:12
[Yemen in Crisis: Bab el-Mandeb Strait May Become a Second Battlefield, Global Shipping Lifeline Faces Double Blockade] ⑴ Iran has informed the Houthi rebels to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in retaliation for a potential US attack on its power infrastructure. If implemented, this would open a second maritime front, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz, to disrupt global trade. ⑵ Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has already plummeted due to the US-Iran confrontation, and Brent crude oil prices rose significantly this week. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closes simultaneously, maritime transport between Asia and Europe will be reduced to a long-distance route around the Cape of Good Hope, significantly increasing transport time and fuel costs. ⑶ Saudi Arabia has successfully bypassed the Strait of Hormuz by transporting crude oil from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline. However, this flow now must pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to reach Asian markets, and the security of this vital waterway directly determines the effectiveness of alternative routes. (4) From late 2023 to early 2025, the Houthi rebels launched over a hundred missile and drone attacks on Red Sea merchant ships, forcing container shipping routes to largely detour around Africa. Egypt's Suez Canal toll revenue plummeted by over 60%. If the operation escalates again, the impact will be even more profound. (5) Analysts point out that the Houthi rebels possess the missile and drone capabilities to implement a blockade, and that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's personnel in Yemen may be involved in the operation. However, whether the organization will ultimately execute the orders remains uncertain, and any substantial blockade could provoke a broader military response. (6) Simultaneous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would paralyze approximately 20% of global oil trade and a significant proportion of liquefied natural gas and container cargo transportation. Economists warn that oil prices could experience an extreme surge due to supply panic, directly impacting fuel imports and consumer goods prices in emerging Asian economies.
18:00:12
[Alternative Pipelines Fails to Solve the Immediate Crisis; Iran Declares "No One Can Export"] ⑴ As the confrontation between the US and Iran escalates again in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil-producing countries are accelerating their search for alternative export routes. However, the existing bypass pipelines have a maximum capacity of only a few million barrels per day, far from enough to fill the gap in normal strait traffic. ⑵ Iran has clearly included alternative energy infrastructure in the Gulf region within its deterrent scope. The Saudi East-West Pipeline and the UAE Abu Dhabi oil pipeline both face potential threats. Analysts warn that Tehran's intention is clear: either all oil-producing countries can export, or none of them can. ⑶ The resumption of traffic brought about by the brief ceasefire in June has been completely reversed. Current strait traffic has plummeted. The US has reinstated its blockade of Iranian ports and revoked sanctions waivers, while Iran is demonstrating its actual control over the chokepoint through attacks on warships, drone strikes, and the laying of mines. (4) New pipeline projects are time-consuming and costly. Even after commissioning, they may face new risks in the Babalmandab Strait in the Red Sea, where the Houthi rebels in Yemen have the capability to launch attacks. Detouring around the Cape of Good Hope will significantly increase shipping costs and time. (5) The UAE is actively expanding its ports and container terminals using existing alternative pipeline capacity on its east coast, and Saudi Arabia also has some redundancy in its detouring routes. However, other oil-producing countries that rely on the strait, such as Iraq and Kuwait, have almost no backup plans, leading to a structural reshaping of the regional energy export landscape. (6) Iran is creating transportation bottlenecks to increase the economic cost of US military strikes, while Gulf oil-producing countries are caught in a dilemma between pipeline expansion and shipping route security. In the short term, the struggle for passage through the strait will continue to dominate oil price trends, and neither side can gain an absolute advantage at an unequal cost.
17:56:16
[Middle East benchmark crude oil prices rose this week, with a sharp drop in Strait of Hormuz traffic exacerbating supply anxieties] ⑴ Middle East benchmark crude oils Oman, Dubai, and Murban all recorded weekly gains, with geopolitical premiums once again dominating pricing logic. Escalating conflict between the US and Iran continues to suppress risk appetite. ⑵ On Friday, the Dubai and Oman spot discounts narrowed further, while the Murban premium remained largely stable. Spot market buying showed some resilience amid rising supply disruption probabilities, and high refinery profits also provided a floor for prices. ⑶ Iran announced a new round of strikes against US facilities in the Middle East on Friday, including Syria in its direct attack range for the first time. It also reportedly requested the Houthi rebels to be prepared to blockade the Red Sea oil route, further escalating the threat level to energy transport routes. ⑷ Ship tracking data showed that only three commodity tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the lowest daily traffic volume since May. Most vessels chose to stop or turn back, reflecting extreme caution among shipowners and charterers regarding safety. (5) The head of the International Energy Agency publicly warned that if the United States and Iran fail to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in a timely manner, global energy security will face real risks. This statement further strengthened market expectations of a widening supply gap.
17:34:13
[Oil Price Decline Coupled with Tech Boom: June Sees Largest Net Foreign Inflow into Asian Bond Markets in Seven Months] ⑴ Foreign investors made net purchases of approximately US$11.5 billion in bonds from Asian regions including South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and India in June, the largest monthly net purchase since November of last year, indicating a significant rebound in global capital's willingness to allocate assets to Asia. ⑵ Brent crude oil fell more than 20% from its four-year high last month, hitting a four-month low, significantly easing inflationary anxieties in major oil-importing countries. Although subsequent escalation of tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices back up, the improved sentiment at that time laid the foundation for attracting buying interest in the bond market. ⑶ The global artificial intelligence wave continues to support the Asian manufacturing sector, with factory activity in many countries expanding due to increased demand for technology products. Improved growth expectations in export-oriented economies have further strengthened foreign investors' confidence in fixed-income assets within the region. (4) Indonesia's bond market led the way with net inflows of approximately US$5.5 billion, reaching a near two-year high, primarily driven by investors' pursuit of higher yields. India's bond market recorded net purchases exceeding US$3 billion due to adjustments in capital gains tax exemptions, marking its strongest monthly performance in nearly nine years. (5) South Korea's bond market recorded net inflows eight times in seven consecutive months, while Malaysia also saw stable buying. However, Thailand's bond market experienced a slight net outflow, indicating regional divergence. Overall, foreign investment preference in Asian bond markets remains on an upward trend.
16:58:12
[Geopolitical risks resurface, refining bottlenecks exacerbate shortages, oil prices fluctuate at high levels awaiting a breakout] ⑴ A new round of standoff between Iran and the United States around the Strait of Hormuz reversed the brief calm brought by the June memorandum of understanding. Brent crude oil returned to the mid-$80 range, and WTI crude oil approached the $80 mark in tandem. Both saw their largest weekly gains in weeks, and the market's pricing focus shifted from confirming losses to probabilistic trading based on escalating threats. ⑵ Ship tracking shows that vessels can still pass through the strait, but traffic volume has sharply decreased and insurance and security costs have soared. The actual flow in the Persian Gulf is more than 10 million barrels per day below normal levels. Even considering the possibility of some vessels turning off their transponders, leading to statistical underestimation, damaged shipping confidence has brought the export recovery momentum to a halt. ⑶ Saudi Arabia and the UAE played a leading role in the June rebound thanks to their alternative pipeline capabilities, but other oil-producing countries are constrained by port congestion and difficulties in restarting oil fields, and their overall production is still significantly lower than in February. Further restrictions on Iranian ports and coastal areas may further reduce its exports by millions of barrels per day, making the supply-side recovery path no longer linear. (4) The crude oil shortage is rapidly transmitting to the finished product market. Reduced arrivals from the Middle East are forcing refineries in the Eastern Suez market to reduce operating rates. Coupled with spring maintenance and a shortage of heavy feedstocks, global refining volume has shrunk significantly compared to pre-crisis levels. High US crack spreads and retail jet fuel and diesel prices have surged by about 70-80% since February, highlighting the tight supply of middle distillates. (5) Following the attack on Russian refining capacity, operating rates have fallen to multi-year lows, forcing the country to substitute crude oil exports for finished product supply. Large-scale offshore inventories and the quality mismatch between light shale oil and heavy Middle Eastern crude oil have further exacerbated diesel production shortages. Even though some Asian refineries saw a month-on-month increase in operating rates in June, the global refining system still faces a capacity gap of millions of barrels per day. (6) Macroeconomic demand signals are becoming increasingly fragile. High oil prices are suppressing the transportation and chemical sectors. China's purchasing is becoming more price-sensitive. While India shows resilience, the region as a whole is constrained by freight and raw material costs. The penetration rate of electric vehicles also creates a ceiling for long-term gasoline growth. The struggle between supply and demand is keeping short-term volatility high. (7) Brent and WTI are expected to trade within a wide range in the near term, with geopolitical tensions and low inventory levels providing support. However, demand disruption and potential negotiations could trigger a rapid correction. The market is also constrained by three variables: Straits risk, refinery bottlenecks, and weak macroeconomics. A decisive breakout in any direction would open up new price potential.
13:32:12
[Iranian Revolutionary Guard Strikes US Base in Kuwait, Claims Hormuz Oil and Gas Exports Completely Halted] ⑴ The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement on the morning of July 17th, claiming that the US military had once again committed war crimes, attacking Iranian civilian facilities and causing multiple civilian casualties. In response, the IRGC's Aerospace Force struck a US military base in Kuwait, targeting "a radar, multiple weapons depots, two HIMARS high-mobility rocket systems, and some ammunition," stating that the base was "engulfed in flames." ⑵ The IRGC statement indicated that US misconduct in the region has led to a significant decline in oil and gas production and has completely halted oil and gas exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's reciprocal retaliatory actions are continuing. The previous day, Iran had declared complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and stated that if the US continues its hostile actions, there will be no oil or gas exports from the region.
12:34:13
[Malaysia's Q2 GDP Grows 5.8% Year-on-Year, Mining and Metallurgy Lead the Way] ⑴ Malaysia's economy expanded by 5.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating further from 5.4% in the previous quarter and slightly exceeding market expectations. The chief statistician stated that resilient domestic demand and improvements in key productive sectors continued to support growth, despite weak agricultural performance. ⑵ The mining and quarrying industry surged 10.2% year-on-year, a significant rebound from a 2.1% decline in the first quarter, mainly driven by increased natural gas production; manufacturing growth also accelerated to 7.5% (previous value 5.9%), benefiting from increased output in electrical, electronic and optical products, petrochemicals, and rubber and plastics products. ⑶ Service sector growth slowed slightly to 5.4% (previous value 5.6%), while construction fell to 6.6% (previous value 7.0%); agriculture contracted by 3.7% (previous value growth 2.6%), reflecting weaker output in the oil palm and fisheries sub-sectors. Overall economic growth for the first half of the year was 5.6%, higher than 4.5% in the same period last year.
10:36:13
[Escalating US-Iran Conflict Coupled with Red Sea Blockade Threat, Oil Prices Fluctuate at High Levels] 1. International oil prices fluctuated at high levels in early Asian trading on Friday. The US and Iran have intensified their attacks in the Gulf region, effectively breaking the ceasefire agreement signed last month and continuing to obstruct oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran has demanded that the Houthi rebels in Yemen prepare to blockade export routes through the Red Sea, further exacerbating market concerns about oil supply. 2. Brent crude futures are currently trading around $84.90 per barrel, while WTI crude futures for August are trading around $79.67 per barrel, and the more actively traded WTI crude futures for September are trading around $78.97 per barrel, showing little change from Thursday's closing price. Both benchmark contracts have risen nearly 12% this week, with Brent crude on track for its third consecutive weekly gain and WTI crude on track for its second consecutive weekly gain. 3. Since the signing of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding last month, the US launched two large-scale airstrikes on Wednesday, primarily targeting locations near Iran's southern coast, and continued strikes on Thursday. The U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. military has launched "six consecutive nights of new strikes against Iran to further weaken its military capabilities." 4. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones, targeting U.S. military bases in neighboring countries, including a series of attacks on a recently expanded airbase in Jordan. Three sources revealed that Iran has instructed the Houthi rebels to prepare to immediately block Red Sea oil shipping routes should the U.S. attack Iranian power infrastructure. 5. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol stated, "Oil security remains a critical issue. If the situation does not improve in the coming weeks, we should be concerned, and I am indeed concerned." IG analysts pointed out that from a technical perspective, if WTI crude oil can hold the key support level of over $70, it may test the resistance near $85.
06:42:12
[Trump Media Launches Paid API Product, Providing Early Access to Presidential Posts] 1. Trump Media & Technology Group announced the launch of its paid data licensing API, "Real Interface," which will officially go live on August 1st. This product will provide subscribers with the fastest access to posts from the 10 most influential accounts on "real social" platforms (including Trump himself). 2. Designed specifically for algorithmic trading companies and other organizations "most affected by information delay costs," this product allows their subscribers to access the "full content" of posts from Trump, Vance, the White House official accounts, and political and media figures. The subscription fee is $150,000 per month (annual plan $120,000/month), with an approximately 20% discount for annual billing. 3. Trump Media Group stated that four subscribers have already confirmed access to the API. This product marks the company's official entry into the data licensing business, opening up a new revenue stream. Interim CEO Kevin McGhan stated, "Market movements have long been heavily influenced by 'True Social' posts... As product adoption increases, the 'True Interface' will become a continuous and substantial revenue stream for the company." Trump himself also posted, "We've just launched a huge new business!" 4. Trump has repeatedly used the "True Social" platform to release significant market news, including tariff policies, cabinet appointments, and military actions, making the platform a crucial information source for traders and financial institutions. Trump Media Technology Group, founded by Trump in 2021 and listed on Nasdaq in 2024, has a market capitalization of approximately $7 billion. It launched an application programming interface product called "TruthAPI," offering customers unprecedented access to Truth Social platform posting data through subscription fees.
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