2025-09-19 Friday
2025-09-19
11:20:25
Mafengwo National Day Travel Trend Forecast: "Where to Go for Less Crowded National Day" Sees a 200% Increase in Popularity. Mafengwo's big data shows that as autumn gradually arrives across northern China, autumn outings are becoming more commonplace. Searches for "enjoying autumn scenery during the National Day holiday" have seen a 125% month-over-month increase in search volume over the past week, while searches for "where to go for less crowded National Day" have surged by 200%. Traditionally popular cities are expected to see peak visitor traffic during the holiday, with Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Qingdao ranking among the top ten most popular domestic cities for the holiday. Arxan, Tengchong, Dunhuang, Wuyuan, Yanji, Shangri-La, Pingtan, Ejin Banner, Anji, and Tonglu are also among the top popular small cities. Arxan, the first to embrace autumn colors, has seen a 340% increase in popularity, making it the top choice for "reverse travel."
11:02:05
RMB SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate): As of September 19, 2025, the latest data shows that two periods saw a decrease, five periods saw an increase, and one period remained unchanged. The overnight Shibor was at 1.461%, a decrease of 5.3 basis points. The two-week SHIBOR saw the largest change among all periods, increasing by 6.6 basis points. (For details on SHIBOR and its changes over the past ten business days, see the Huitong FX678 chart.) Other periods show that the one-week Shibor was at 1.488%, a decrease of 4 basis points. The two-week Shibor was at 1.647%, an increase of 6.6 basis points. The one-month Shibor was at 1.547%, an increase of 0.3 basis points. The three-month Shibor was at 1.562%, an increase of 0.6 basis points. The six-month Shibor was at 1.632%, an increase of 0.1 basis points. The nine-month Shibor was at 1.663%, an increase of 0.1 basis points. The one-year Shibor was 1.673%, unchanged.
09:29:32
Overview of the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (CNY HIBOR) and its changes: According to Huitong Finance, the interest rate changes of each period of CNY HIBOR on September 19, 2025 are shown in the table: 5 periods saw an increase in interest rates, 2 periods saw a decrease in interest rates, and 2 periods saw no change. The largest change was in the 1-week CNY hibor rate: an increase of 14 basis points. As the updated data in the figure shows, the overnight onshore CNY HIBOR was reported at 1.34%, down 1 basis point; 1 week was reported at 1.54%, up 14 basis points; 2 weeks was reported at 1.60%, up 8 basis points; 1 month was reported at 1.62%, up 1 basis point; 2 months was reported at 1.64%, unchanged; 3 months was reported at 1.72%, down 1 basis point; 6 months was reported at 1.77%, up 2 basis points; 9 months was reported at 1.84%, up 1 basis point; and 1-year onshore CNY HIBOR was reported at 1.91%, unchanged. BP = Basis Point
09:12:04
USD/JPY Continues to Rebound, Market Await Bank of Japan Decision] 1. USD/JPY continued its overnight rebound, returning to pre-FOMC levels. The exchange rate hit a high of 148.26 overnight, rising above the Ichimoku Cloud (146.80-147.96) on the daily chart. 2. During Friday's Asian session, the exchange rate traded between 147.87 and 148.11, with the market awaiting the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy announcement. Currently, the exchange rate has returned to the core of the Cloud, fluctuating between the 10-day and 200-day moving averages (146.25/148.64). 3. Market trends will largely depend on whether the Bank of Japan sends hawkish signals today. The Federal Reserve's recent stance has been more cautious than market expectations, while the narrowing trend in the US-Japan Treasury yield gap continues, keeping USD/JPY under overall downward pressure. 4. Options expiring today: 146.80 (US$844 million), 147.00 (US$1.1 billion), 147.45-55 (US$1.6 billion in total), 148.00-06 (US$548 million). In addition, Japanese importers are demanding dollars before the Tokyo market fix. Saturday is Gotobi (payroll settlement day), and the sharp rise in US stocks may also boost dollar buying.
08:47:42
[Major Brokerage Firms' Outlook After the Fed's Rate Cut: Most Expect Two More Cuts This Year, but Divergence Emerges] 1. After the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut as expected, market attention quickly shifted to the subsequent policy path. Currently, most major brokerages maintain their original forecast, predicting two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remainder of 2025. This consensus is based on continued slowing inflation and a gradually cooling economy. 2. Nomura Securities, KBW, and other institutions have joined the ranks of predicting another rate cut in October, further strengthening the market consensus for two more rate cuts this year. They point to weakening labor market momentum and signs of slowing economic growth as evidence for further rate cuts. 3. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference reinforced the possibility of further easing. He explicitly stated that the weak labor market has become the top concern of Fed policymakers. This signal is interpreted by the market as a key basis for further rate cuts and paves the way for more institutions to expect further policy easing. 4. However, divergence also exists. Bank of America Global Research and HSBC still maintain a relatively cautious stance, predicting that there will be no immediate interest rate cut at the next meeting, and there may only be one more rate cut this year. However, they also admit that if future employment data deteriorates significantly, the possibility of an October rate cut is increasing, showing their flexible attitude towards data dependence.
03:49:38
The US dollar index rose on the 18th. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.49% that day, closing at 97.349 at the end of the foreign exchange market. As of the close of New York foreign exchange trading, the euro was exchanged for 1.1779 US dollars, down from 1.1835 US dollars the previous trading day; the British pound was exchanged for 1.3550 US dollars, down from 1.3640 US dollars the previous trading day; the US dollar was exchanged for 147.95 Japanese yen, up from 146.72 Japanese yen the previous trading day; the US dollar was exchanged for 0.7927 Swiss francs, up from 0.7886 Swiss francs the previous trading day; the US dollar was exchanged for 1.3807 Canadian dollars, up from 1.3771 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; and the US dollar was exchanged for 9.3655 Swedish kronor, up from 9.2787 Swedish kronor the previous trading day.
01:12:56
The Bank of England held interest rates, scaled back quantitative tightening, and hinted at future rate cuts, sending the pound sterling (GBP) falling against the US dollar. The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep interest rates unchanged and reduce its quantitative tightening program to £70 billion, sending the pound sterling (GBP/USD) retreating. UK inflation is approaching double its target; Bailey (BoE Governor) hinted at further rate cuts, but the timing remains uncertain. US initial jobless claims fell to 231,000, with Powell (Federal Reserve Chairman) citing immigration as a labor market headwind. Following the Federal Reserve's announcement of a rate hold after the start of its easing cycle through 2025, the Bank of England reversed course, losing over 0.50% on Thursday. After hitting a high of 1.3660 for the day, the GBP/USD exchange rate is now trading at 1.3557.
00:56:09
The future of US mortgage rates remains uncertain after the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday. Mortgage rates have quietly risen after the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday—a counterintuitive but common phenomenon. Freddie Mac data showed that as of Wednesday, mortgage rates were stable at 6.26%, the lowest level since early October 2024. However, most of Freddie Mac's data was collected before the Fed cut. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday: "We don't set mortgage rates, but our policy rate changes tend to have an impact on them. This impact is already being seen, and of course, it will also boost (housing) demand." The next direction of mortgage rates remains uncertain. The Fed cut interest rates three times between September and December of last year, but mortgage rates continued to rise during the same period. Data released on Wednesday showed that Fed officials expect two more rate cuts this year, but they remain divided on the short-term economic outlook. "Because financial markets are pricing in a faster pace of monetary policy easing than the Fed actually will, further significant declines in mortgage rates are unlikely," Zillow Senior Economist Orphe Divounguy said in a statement.
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