2026-04-09 Thursday
2026-04-09
22:12:08
[Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister: Strait of Hormuz Remains Open, But Requires Coordination with Iran] On the 9th local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Khatibzadeh stated in a media interview that the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but due to the ongoing conflict, passage is subject to certain technical restrictions. Khatibzadeh pointed out that because the strait is located in a war zone, and Iran has taken several measures during the conflict, all ships wishing to pass only need to communicate and coordinate with the Iranian military and relevant liaison points beforehand. He emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is narrow and involves the territorial waters of both Iran and Oman, therefore, prudent measures must be taken to ensure the safe passage of oil tankers and other vessels. When asked whether US ships would be allowed to pass, Khatibzadeh stated that, in principle, ships from all parties can pass as long as they do not engage in hostile acts, and no signs of related risks have been found. However, all ships must still comply with existing coordination mechanisms and restrictions. (CCTV News)
21:35:50
[White House Bets on Warsh to Take Over as Fed Chair in May, Powell's Future Remains Uncertain] ⑴ White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Thursday that he is highly confident that Kevin Warsh will take over as Fed chair in May, and expects current chair Powell not to remain on the Fed Board of Governors. ⑵ Hassett revealed that Warsh's confirmation hearings are expected to begin next week, and said that Powell has given a clear signal that he will step down once the new chair is confirmed, a move seen as appropriate and in accordance with regulations. ⑶ However, Powell publicly stated in March that he would not leave the Fed until at least the criminal investigation against him is completed, and has not yet decided whether to continue serving his term on the Board of Governors, which expires in 2028. His term as Fed chair will expire in May. ⑷ A US judge last week upheld the ruling to freeze subpoenas related to the investigation, and the resulting appeals process could further delay the Trump administration's timeline for installing a more compliant central bank leader. (5) Analysts point out that the certainty and timing of the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve are crucial to market interest rate expectations. If Warsh takes over smoothly and Powell completely withdraws from the Board of Governors, the tone of monetary policy may undergo a subtle shift, while any delay in the legal process will prolong the wait-and-see period of the current policy framework.
21:27:20
[Israeli Strikes Against Lebanon Could Shake Regional Peace Window] Following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, a clear north-south divide has emerged in Israel's domestic situation. According to CCTV reporter Zhao Bing, most regions in central and southern Israel have announced the easing of previous wartime restrictions, including the reopening of schools, the lifting of bans on gatherings, and the reopening of airspace. Ben Gurion Airport has also announced the resumption of normal operations. However, restrictions remain strict in northern Israel, with educational activities confined to air-raid shelters and some hospital departments remaining underground. This stark north-south divide stems directly from Israel's continued large-scale strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. On April 8, the Israeli Air Force launched a fierce airstrike on nearly 100 targets in Lebanon, causing widespread casualties. The Israeli military explicitly stated that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement does not cover Lebanon. Israeli media analysis suggests that, unlike the US's desire for temporary stability, Israel hopes to use the ceasefire window to thoroughly weaken Hezbollah and send a signal to Iran that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement cannot protect Hezbollah, thereby forcing Iran to make greater concessions in ceasefire negotiations. However, Israel faces significant risks in doing so, potentially provoking retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran, which could derail the ceasefire process and plunge the entire country back into a state of war. (CCTV International News)
21:10:12
[US Buyers Defy Trend and Rush into Spanish Luxury Homes; Trump-Era Anxiety Fuels Transoceanic Safe-Haven Trend] ⑴ Data released Thursday by the Spanish General Council of Notaries shows that US citizens' home purchases in Spain have increased by 3% in 2025, while overall foreign buyer purchases have declined during the same period. US buyers are rapidly entering the Iberian Peninsula's high-end residential market. ⑵ Over the past six years, US buyers' property transactions in Spain have more than doubled, a stark contrast to the 16% decline in British buyers during the same period. Some luxury real estate agencies have seen their US clients surpass those of the British, becoming the largest group. ⑶ Real estate industry insiders cite concerns stemming from Trump's policies as a key driver of this wave of US home purchases. Hispanic Americans have shown particular interest in Spain, viewing it as a permanent residence or alternative safe haven. ⑷ US buyers demonstrate significantly stronger purchasing power in the high-end segment, with an average purchase price of €3,501 per square meter, 29% higher than the average for foreign buyers and nearly double the price paid by Spanish residents. (5) Real estate developer GILMAR disclosed that American buyers surpassed British buyers last year to become the largest foreign customer group in the Costa del Sol region. Luxury real estate company Dils Lucas Fox also stated that American customers have jumped to become the second largest source of foreign buyers after the UK. (6) The strong US dollar provided exchange rate support for this round of home purchases, but analysts believe that even if the dollar weakens against the euro, the pursuit of quality of life, considerations of safety and environment, and the demand for diversified asset allocation will still support the resilience of the underlying demand of American buyers. (7) Reveca Caballero, head of GILMAR's international department in Madrid, said that the core motivations for American customers to purchase property in Spain include the attractiveness of the Spanish lifestyle, the safe and livable environment, and the desire to diversify their overseas asset allocation in the context of disagreement with the domestic political climate.
20:41:32
[US Initial Jobless Claims Rise Moderately, But Employment Stagnation Remains a Double-Edged Sword] ⑴ Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 16,000 to 219,000, slightly higher than the 210,000 expected by surveys, but still at historically low levels. ⑵ The low layoff rate continues to provide a floor for the labor market. So far, there are no signs that employers have initiated layoffs due to the oil price shock caused by the US-Israel war with Iran, and the resilience of the job market exceeds previous market concerns. ⑶ Although non-farm payrolls rebounded by 178,000 in March, the median duration of unemployment climbed to 11.4 weeks, the longest in nearly four and a half years, and the labor market is deeply mired in what economists call a stalemate of low hiring and low layoffs. ⑷ Uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric and large-scale deportation policies is considered the core trigger for this round of hiring freezes. Companies tend to freeze new jobs rather than lay off existing employees before the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer. (5) The number of continuing jobless claims decreased by 38,000 to 1.794 million in the week ending March 28. However, this decline in continuing claims was partly due to unemployed individuals exiting the statistical scope after exhausting the 26-week claim period, rather than an actual improvement in the employment situation. (6) Young adults lacking work experience were most severely impacted by the labor market downturn, as they typically do not qualify for unemployment benefits. The actual extent of unemployment may be systematically underestimated by official data. (7) The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that more and more policymakers believed that interest rate hikes might be necessary to combat inflation. The modest rebound in initial jobless claims is not enough to change the wait-and-see attitude of policymakers. However, if the low employment situation continues to erode residents' income expectations, the foundation of consumer resilience will face the risk of gradual erosion.
20:33:57
[US PCE Inflation Meets Expectations Across the Board; Core Indicators Remain Sticky, Testing the Narrative of Interest Rate Cuts] ⑴ The overall US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, in line with market expectations, compared to 0.3% previously; the year-on-year increase remained stable at 2.8%, also fully in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month. ⑵ The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also recorded a 0.4% month-on-month increase, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month; the year-on-year increase slightly declined to 3.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous 3.1%, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% policy target. ⑶ Further excluding the housing component, the core PCE showed that the price index excluding food, energy, and housing rose 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that the underlying inflationary pressures other than housing costs have not shown signs of easing. ⑷ The PCE price index for services, excluding energy and housing, rose only 0.2% month-on-month, a significant cooling from 0.5% in January, indicating a marginal weakening of inflationary momentum on the service side, one of the few signs of easing in the inflation landscape. (5) Analysts point out that although the core year-on-year reading has slightly declined, the annualized rate of increase of 0.4% month-on-month is still close to 5%. Coupled with the fact that the lagged transmission of the Middle East situation's impact on oil prices to the March data has not yet been reflected, the Federal Reserve's confidence in a sustained return of inflation to its target is unlikely to be rebuilt in the short term. (6) After the data release, the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remained largely unchanged. Expectations for rate cuts are still constrained by both inflation stickiness and geopolitical premiums. The focus has quickly shifted to whether the upcoming March CPI report can provide clearer evidence of an inflation turning point.
19:08:14
[Italgas' 6-Year Eurobond Subscription Surpasses €2.5 Billion, Spread Anchored at 78 Basis Points] ⑴ Italgas, the Italian gas infrastructure operator, launched its 6-year euro benchmark bond issuance on Thursday, with subscriptions exceeding €2.5 billion. The final issuance spread is set at 78 basis points above the swap rate midpoint, with an expected issuance size of approximately €650 million. ⑵ The initial price guidance for the bond was approximately 110 basis points above the swap rate midpoint. After book-building, the spread narrowed significantly by 32 basis points. Settlement will be completed on April 16, with a maturity date of April 16, 2032. Coupon payments are made annually. ⑶ BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, Crédit Agricole, Intesa Sanpaolo, JPMorgan Chase, Mediterranean Investment Bank, and Société Générale are acting as joint bookrunners, with Société Générale also serving as the structure designer. (4) Italgas' current credit ratings are Moody's Baa2 stable outlook, S&P BBB+ stable outlook, and Fitch BBB+ stable outlook, with the expected bond rating consistent with the issuer's rating. (5) Comparable bond data in the secondary market shows that Italgas' outstanding bonds maturing in June 2032 with a coupon rate of 4.125% have a spread of approximately 73 basis points, and its zero-coupon bonds maturing in February 2033 have a spread of approximately 80 basis points. The pricing of this new bond is within a reasonable extension range of the existing yield curve. (6) Among comparable Italian utilities in the same period, the spread of bonds maturing in 2031 for the State Power Corporation is approximately 64 basis points, for the Railway Network Corporation's bonds maturing in 2032 it is approximately 63 basis points, and for the Natural Gas Storage Corporation's bonds maturing in 2032 it is approximately 72 basis points. (7) Analysts believe that against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty fueling risk aversion in Europe, Italgas, with its regulated asset stability and strategic position in Italy's natural gas infrastructure, still successfully attracted over 4 times oversubscription, highlighting the scarce allocation value of defensive utility bonds in the current market conditions.
18:59:43
[Congo Makes its First foray into the International Bond Market, Raising Funds with a 9% High Yield to Test Resource Credit Premium] ⑴ Two informed sources revealed on Thursday that the Democratic Republic of Congo has officially launched its first-ever international bond issuance, planning to raise funds from global investors through 5-year and 10-year US dollar-denominated notes, leveraging its central position in the global key mineral market and its warming relations with the United States. ⑵ Although the final issuance size has not yet been finalized, the country previously disclosed plans to raise $750 million initially, as part of its $1.5 billion euro bond issuance plan announced earlier this year, with the funds specifically earmarked for infrastructure construction. ⑶ Both bonds are senior unsecured installment structures, with an initial guidance yield of approximately 9.125% for the 2032 maturity bond and approximately 10% for the 2037 maturity bond. The high coupon rate reflects the market's cautious pricing of its sovereign credit risk. ⑷ This bond issuance window comes at a time of increasingly fierce global competition for key minerals in the energy transition, and the strategic pursuit by the United States and its allies to diversify supply chains away from China adds additional geopolitical appeal to Congolese mining assets. (5) S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country's credit outlook to positive in January, citing strong economic growth prospects and improved foreign exchange reserves and tax collection capabilities. (6) The outbreak of war with Iran brought emerging market bond issuance to a standstill, but the international capital market environment has marginally improved after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement this week, providing a rare window of opportunity for Congo's debut. (7) In its issuance circular released on Wednesday, the country frankly acknowledged key vulnerabilities, including its heavy reliance on mining exports, continued instability in the conflict-ridden eastern regions, and the structural constraint that concessional financing still accounts for 97% of its total external debt. (8) Sporadic clashes with Rwandan-backed rebels, commodity price volatility, and infrastructure bottlenecks could erode fiscal resilience, while its concentrated reliance on major trading partners also poses a risk of economic diversification.
18:20:19
[The Fed Awaits Inflation Decision; Leading Indicators Show Fastest Rise Since 2008] ⑴ The minutes of the Fed's March meeting revealed that some policymakers are uneasy about rising inflation. Despite a gradual reduction in policy rates since 2024, inflation remains stubbornly above the target range, and the price transmission effects of the Middle East conflict have not yet fully manifested in hard data. ⑵ Market focus shifts to the US March Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be released on Thursday. The market widely expects the CPI to rise 0.9% month-on-month, pushing the year-on-year increase to 3.3%, which, if realized, would be the largest annual increase since May 2024. ⑶ State Street Bank's PriceStats model, which monitors millions of online consumer prices using web scraping technology, shows that March monthly inflation jumped 1.5% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since the series began in July 2008. (4) PriceStats model simultaneously recorded an annualized inflation rate of 4.0% in March, returning to its highest level since January 2023. Michael Metcalf, head of macro strategy at State Street, warned that the inflation picture has undergone a substantial shift in just one month. (5) Metcalf pointed out that early component data showed that non-energy sectors such as entertainment, electronics, and clothing also saw above-average monthly increases. If the price increases are not solely due to oil and gas cost transmission, the Fed's anxiety will significantly intensify. (6) Despite leading inflation indicators flashing red, the interest rate futures market is currently only pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a rate cut before the end of the year, far from reflecting any tightening expectations, indicating that the market is still in a wait-and-see phase regarding the Fed's policy path. (7) The subsequent trend will largely depend on whether energy prices can fall as the ceasefire agreement stabilizes, and the rate of transmission of oil prices to daily consumer goods prices. If the March CPI data exceeds expectations across the board, the market's pricing of the Fed's interest rate trajectory for the year may face a sharp correction.
18:12:24
[Global Yield Spread Scan: US Treasuries Short-Term Pricing is Hawkish, Japanese Bonds Show Significant Advantage] ⑴ As of Wednesday, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note was 3.798%, lower only than Australia's 4.637% and the UK's 4.251% among major developed economies, and a premium of 123.7 basis points over the 2-year German bond. ⑵ The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was 4.290%, lower than the UK's 4.719% and Australia's 4.925%, but still 130.5 basis points higher than the 10-year German bond, indicating that the US Treasury yield curve is relatively hawkish in pricing inflation stickiness and policy rate paths. ⑶ Japanese bond yields are at an absolute low in the global yield spread pattern, with a 2-year yield of only 1.390%, 240.8 basis points lower than the US yield, and a 10-year yield of 2.397%, 189.3 basis points lower than the US yield, continuing to constitute a major source of liabilities for carry trades. (4) Institutional analysis points out that with the Iran war pushing up global inflation premiums and shipping disruptions in the Hormuz exacerbating supply chain uncertainty, the relatively firm yields on short-term US Treasury bonds reflect a continued narrowing of market bets on the extent of Fed rate cuts this year. (5) The interest rate spread between core and peripheral European countries remains narrowing. The premium of Italian 10-year bonds over German bonds is only 78.7 basis points, and the premium of French bonds is 64.7 basis points, indicating that the market's pricing of Eurozone sovereign risk premiums has not yet shown significant divergence. (6) It is worth noting that if the situation in the Middle East escalates again, triggering a surge in oil prices, Japanese bond yields may face upward pressure. At that time, a global carry trade unwinding wave may cause temporary disruptions to high-yield currencies and risk assets.
18:00:15
[Earnings Expectations Remain High at 16%, Institutions Warn of Correction Storm for US Stocks in Q1 Earnings Season] ⑴ Helen Jewell, Chief Investment Officer for Fundamental Equities at BlackRock, said on Wednesday that current market forecasts for US stock earnings growth this year remain as high as 15% to 18%. Given the emerging inflationary transmission effects of the Middle East conflict, this expectation has considerable room for downward revision. ⑵ She specifically pointed out that the assessment of stable earnings in the consumer sector is untenable, especially given the lack of significant easing in the interest rate environment and the increasing price pressures from the Middle East situation. Consumer resilience will face a severe test. ⑶ Data has already released early warning signals. The Citi US Earnings Momentum Index turned negative last Friday, and the number of analysts lowering earnings forecasts exceeded the number raising them by a significant margin in nearly a year. ⑷ Compiled data shows that the market consensus for S&P 500 earnings per share growth this year is 16%, which, if realized, would be the strongest annual performance since 2021. However, under the dual pressure of high uncertainty and soaring price risks, this forecast appears increasingly unrealistic. (5) With the Q1 earnings season officially starting next week, Jewell believes that the growth potential of the energy and materials sectors may be offset by the downside risks to earnings in cyclical industries such as aviation, and overall earnings performance is likely to be lackluster. (6) Institutions warn that, given the ongoing market turmoil caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric, if companies' actual earnings guidance falls short of previously inflated expectations, equity asset valuations will face dual pressure from both earnings and confidence corrections.
17:27:57
[First Round of US-Iran Talks to be Held in Islamabad; Trump Warns of Resumption of Military Action if Negotiations Fail] ⑴ The United States and Iran will hold their first round of talks in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the morning of the 11th local time. Trump has dispatched a delegation led by US Vice President Vance to the talks to push for a long-term agreement. Trump and his team believe that Iran's new proposal can serve as a viable basis for negotiations and is "consistent" with the US's 15-point proposal. ⑵ Trump posted on the 8th that all US ships, aircraft, and military personnel, along with additional ammunition, weapons, and any other appropriate and necessary supplies, will remain stationed in and around Iran until the agreement is fully observed. ⑶ Trump stated on the 8th that if negotiations with Iran fail, the US can easily resume military action against Iran. Trump stated that Hezbollah and Lebanon "will also be resolved," saying that the ceasefire "does not include" Lebanon and Hezbollah. ⑷ Trump stated that Iran will not enrich uranium and claimed that the US will cooperate with Iran to mine nuclear fallout. In addition, Trump stated that the US may form a joint project with Iran to protect the Strait of Hormuz. (5) According to CCTV News, Trump posted on his social media platform "Real Social" that any country that provides military weapons to Iran will have "any and all goods" sold to the United States subject to an "immediate 50% tariff," and that the measure would "take effect immediately" without any exclusions or exemptions. (6) Trump is considering punishing some NATO countries that did not support a US military action against Iran and withdrawing troops from some NATO countries. Market sources say the Trump administration may cut funding for the Iran war to between $80 billion and $100 billion. (7) White House Press Secretary Levitt said Trump will travel to Nevada and Arizona next week. Under the revised Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, Trump has issued a proclamation adjusting the automatic spending cuts for fiscal year 2027. (8) US oil industry executives are pressuring the Trump administration to reject any agreement that would allow Iran to collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
15:15:28
[Gasoline and Airfare Prices Unlikely to Fall Quickly After Ceasefire, Experts Say It Will Take Weeks or Even Longer] 1. US gasoline prices are expected to decline slowly, but not rapidly. The ceasefire news triggered a sharp drop in oil prices on Wednesday, but the price decline typically takes three to five days to reach the retail level, and the retail price drop is even slower. GasBuddy predicts that oil prices may fall by 1-3 cents every few days until the end of the week, but any new escalation of the situation could reverse the decline. 2. Raymond James analysts estimate that Wednesday's sharp drop in oil prices alone should have reduced the national retail price of gasoline by about 45 cents, from the current $4.16 to around $3.70, but this reduction will take at least two weeks to fully reflect at gas stations. Whether oil prices can fall further afterward depends on the speed of recovery of Persian Gulf exports. 3. Airfare prices will fall even more slowly. Aviation fuel prices have nearly doubled since the start of the war, with Delta Air Lines CEO calling the increase "unprecedented." JD Power's travel business manager stated that prices are stubborn, and airline pricing doesn't react as quickly as gas stations; it's too early to judge whether a ceasefire will affect summer airfares. 4. Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, a full restoration of shipping lanes and maritime traffic will take at least several weeks, and likely more than a month. Diesel and jet fuel prices will remain high "for some time." Furthermore, gasoline costs are higher during seasonal peaks and summer-blended gasoline, and experts predict that gasoline prices will be unlikely to return to pre-war levels of $2.98 per gallon this year.
14:49:18
[Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire, Unstable Dollar, Market Anxiety] 1. The dollar stumbled on Thursday as investors anxiously assessed the sustainability of the fragile US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Israel continued its attacks on Hezbollah, an Iranian ally, in Lebanon, with Tehran accusing the US and Israel of violating the agreement and calling continued negotiations "unreasonable." The Strait of Hormuz remained closed to unauthorized vessels, pushing oil prices higher. 2. The dollar index is currently up 0.06% to around 99.08, the euro has dipped slightly to $1.1659, and the pound has risen slightly to $1.3391. The dollar rose 0.2% against the yen to 158.81, amid market concerns that Japanese fiscal policy may become more expansionary. Overnight index swaps showed a 55% market expectation for a Bank of Japan rate hike this month. 3. Japan's consumer confidence index deteriorated for the first time in three months in March, indicating that the war could impact the economy and make it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. Kazuo Ueda stated that real interest rates remain negative, and financial conditions remain loose. 4. Analysts point out that the fragile ceasefire gives Iran greater leverage in controlling the Strait of Hormuz than before the war. The US will release PCE data today; strong data could trigger a dollar rebound.
13:15:26
[Iranian Deputy Speaker Says Iran's Losses Must Be Compensated] On April 8th local time, Ali Nikozadeh, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Islamic Parliament, stated in a media interview that for a ceasefire agreement to be reached, US troops must withdraw, Iran must gain current and future access to the Strait of Hormuz, major sanctions must be lifted, and Iran's losses must be compensated. #US-IranCeasefireAgreementNeedsSupremeLeaderApproval# Nikozadeh also stated that the agreement must receive formal approval from the Supreme Leader. He further criticized US President Trump's previously proposed 15-point ceasefire plan as "hypocritical," because from the US perspective, whether things develop according to US wishes or not, the US will claim to have "won," and even if things don't go according to US plan, the US will still claim to be negotiating. (CCTV International News)
11:05:41
RMB SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate): Latest data as of April 9, 2026. Rates decreased over 7 periods and increased over 1 period. The overnight SHIBOR was 1.223%, up 0.1 basis points. The largest change was in the one-year RMB SHIBOR rate, down 0.6 basis points. (For details on SHIBOR and changes over the past ten working days, please refer to the chart created by FX678). Other periods show: 1-week SHIBOR at 1.32%, down 0.3 basis points; 2-week SHIBOR at 1.363%, down 0.3 basis points; 1-month SHIBOR at 1.466%, down 0.25 basis points; 3-month SHIBOR at 1.476%, down 0.35 basis points; 6-month SHIBOR at 1.4895%, down 0.5 basis points; 9-month SHIBOR at 1.4995%, down 0.5 basis points. The one-year Shibor rate was 1.5105%, down 0.6 basis points.
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