2026-07-18 Saturday
22:44:14
[Canadian Wildfires Continue to Spread; Multiple US Regions Issue Air Quality, Severe Surge, and Flood Warnings] Affected by the thick smoke from the Canadian wildfires, as of the morning of July 18th local time, air quality warnings have been issued in more than ten states across the United States, stretching from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region to New England, and further south to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. It is understood that more than 900 wildfires are still burning in Canada, and large amounts of smoke continue to drift towards the northeastern United States and the Mid-Atlantic region. However, a storm system expected to pass through on the 18th is expected to help disperse some of the smoke. Meanwhile, driven by northwesterly winds, a thick smoke band is gradually entering the Midwestern United States and the upper Great Lakes region, and air quality is expected to remain poor throughout the weekend. On the other hand, the US Storm Forecasting Center has issued a Level 3 (out of 5) severe convective weather risk warning for the Ohio Valley, the Northeast, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Major cities along Interstate 95, including New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., are likely to be affected, while Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Buffalo are also expected to experience severe thunderstorms. Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms will bring destructive winds, hail, and a small number of tornadoes, with some areas also facing the risk of flash flooding. Flood warnings have already been issued for parts of the northeastern United States, including New York City and Philadelphia, and will remain in effect until the night of the 18th.
13:38:12
[US Commercial Bank Deposits Shrink by $74 Billion in a Single Week, Short-Term Volatility Draws Attention] ⑴ Federal Reserve data shows that as of the week ending July 8, US commercial bank deposits fell to approximately $19.36 trillion, a decrease of about $74 billion from the previous week, mainly reflecting short-term fluctuations in the banking system's deposit balance. ⑵ From the perspective of fund flows, the deposit reduction may be related to the fading quarter-end effect, competition among money market funds, and the migration of some funds to higher-yield assets. Specific structural changes need to be assessed in conjunction with data from the following weeks. ⑶ From a market psychology perspective, the marginal decline in deposit size is not yet sufficient to constitute a systemic trend signal. However, given the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates, the persistence of deposit disintermediation pressure remains an important entry point for the market to focus on banking system liquidity. ⑷ Going forward, attention should be paid to whether deposit changes are accompanied by adjustments in large-denomination certificate of deposit rates or changes in commercial bank financing strategies, and whether they have a chain reaction impact on the pace of credit issuance. This will determine the potential significance of this indicator.
11:58:16
[Former US Air Force Officer: Iranian Elementary School Attack Consists of US Military Operation] On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran. An elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, was attacked by missiles, killing 175 people, the vast majority of whom were children. On July 16, US sources, citing three informed sources, stated that the US military investigation into the Minab elementary school attack had been stalled for some time. Sky News, in a report on the same day, used satellite imagery and video footage to create a 3D reconstruction of the attacked school. A former US Air Force officer confirmed in the report that the attack on the school and surrounding buildings "clearly conforms to the characteristics of a US military operation." Furthermore, the area was within range of a US carrier strike group that day—public US information indicates that the USS Spruance destroyer launched Tomahawk missiles that day. (CCTV News)
10:02:12
[U.S. Central Command: Ends Seventh Night of Strikes Against Iran] U.S. Central Command announced that at 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time on July 17, the U.S. military ended its seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran. The targets of the strikes by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) included reconnaissance sites, military logistics facilities, underground weapons depots, and naval forces. The U.S. military used fighter jets, drones, warships, and other combat equipment to carry out the attacks. Following instructions from the Supreme Commander, Central Command will continue to pursue Iranian accountability and maintain a full naval blockade of Iranian ports. More than 50,000 U.S. military personnel are deployed throughout the Middle East, remaining on high alert, combat-ready, and ready to respond at any time.
03:52:12
Bob Oravec, a senior forecaster at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center, pointed out that approximately 151 million people were again affected by high temperatures on Friday, stretching from the northern Rocky Mountains in the north to the mid-Atlantic region in the east, and south to the Gulf Coast. He explained that thick smoke from wildfires originating in Canada covered large areas of the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic, and the Midwest, affecting about 87 million Americans on Friday due to declining air quality. In addition, about 70 million people were simultaneously impacted by the combined effects of smoke and high temperatures, bringing the total number of Americans facing multiple threats from wildfire smoke, extreme heat, or flooding to approximately 180 million.
03:50:13
On Friday, July 17th, during the late New York session, the ICE Dollar Index was essentially flat, closing at 100.766 points, a cumulative decline of 0.18% for the week. The index traded between 101.327 and 100.353 points throughout the week, with the release of US CPI and PPI data triggering two distinct downward movements. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose slightly by 0.09%, closing at 1217.29 points, a cumulative decline of 0.14% for the week, trading between 1222.56 and 1212.47 points. In terms of exchange rates, the USD/JPY pair rose slightly by 0.04% to 162.46 yen, a cumulative increase of 0.48% for the week, fluctuating between 161.62 and 162.55 yen. The EUR/JPY pair rose 0.69% for the week, closing at 185.84 yen. The GBP/JPY pair rose 0.86% for the week, closing at 218.611 yen.
02:02:15
[Bank of America: Key Indicator Extremely Bullish, Suggests Selling Stocks] A team of strategists at Bank of America, led by Michael Hartnett, said that asset allocators have become extremely bullish, a warning sign that investors should “reduce equity exposure, withdraw, or rotate sectors” rather than continue adding to risk assets. Hartnett wrote in a report on Friday that Bank of America’s internal sentiment indicator, the “Bull & Bear Indicator,” is flashing a contrarian “sell signal.” This is primarily attributed to “a sharp drop in institutional cash levels, strong equity inflows,” and increased breadth of global stock indices. The indicator has climbed to 9.6, pushing further into extremely bullish territory. About two months ago, the indicator read 8.0, which typically indicates an overheated market due to crowded bullish positions. Bank of America stated that a reading below the 2.0 threshold would be a buy signal.
01:40:14
A team of Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, pointed out that bullish sentiment among participants in asset allocation is currently at an extreme level. This is often a warning signal from the market, suggesting that investors should "reduce equity positions, take profits, or adjust portfolio structure for sector rotation" rather than continue to increase their allocation to risky assets. In a research report released last Friday, Hartnett mentioned that Bank of America's internal "Bull & Bear Indicator," used to measure market sentiment, has triggered a reverse "sell signal." The core reasons for this signal include "a significant decline in institutional cash holdings, strong inflows into the stock market," and the continued broadening of global stock index gains. The indicator has now risen to 9.6, further entering extremely bullish territory. About two months ago, the indicator reading was 8.0, a value that typically indicates the market is overheated due to concentrated bullish positions. According to Bank of America's standards, a buy signal only occurs when the indicator falls below the 2.0 threshold.