2026-11-06 Friday
2026-11-06
11:04:09
RMB SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate): Latest data as of November 6, 2026. Rates rose over 3 periods and remained unchanged over 5 periods. The overnight SHIBOR was 1.283%, up 2 basis points. The largest change was in the 1-week RMB SHIBOR rate, which rose 2.3 basis points. (For details on SHIBOR and changes over the past ten working days, please refer to the chart created by FX678). Other periods show: 1-week SHIBOR at 1.346%, up 2.3 basis points; 2-week SHIBOR at 1.345%, up 0.6 basis points; 1-month SHIBOR at 1.377%, unchanged; 3-month SHIBOR at 1.398%, unchanged; 6-month SHIBOR at 1.418%, unchanged; 9-month SHIBOR at 1.428%, unchanged; 1-year SHIBOR at 1.437%, unchanged.
10:17:30
[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Job Market Stabilizing, Wage Growth Still Lagging Inflation] 1. The US labor market has been largely stable over the past six months, and the October non-farm payrolls report is not expected to break this trend. JOLTS job openings, weekly initial jobless claims, and the ISM survey all point to a state of "low hiring, low layoffs." Economists' consensus expects 62,000 new jobs in October, higher than the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary estimate of 29,000 for September; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. 2. Dan North, chief economist at Allianz Trade North America, said that the consensus forecast is still not encouraging enough, but the current unemployment rate is at a historical low, and fewer new jobs may be sufficient. He pointed out that the labor force participation rate may be more telling than the unemployment rate; the participation rate rose slightly to 61.8% in September from 61.6% in August, but is still lower than the 62.5% projected for September 2025. 3. The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate model estimates that the October unemployment rate may have slightly decreased to 4.14% from 4.18% in September, rounded to 4.1%. The model shows that the layoff rate remains low at 2.01%, compared to 2.03% previously; the hiring rate has improved slightly to 46.18%, compared to 45.48% previously. 4. Wage growth is expected to continue to lag behind inflation. Market consensus expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October, higher than September's 0.1%; and 2.9% year-over-year, lower than September's 3.0%. In contrast, the overall PCE inflation rate was 3.6% in September. The gap between inflation and wage growth is eroding consumer purchasing power. 5. North points out that inflation has become "very sticky, with little change over the past few months." Given the stable labor market, the Fed will continue to monitor inflation. In this rate hike cycle, the Fed only raised rates once in September; he stated that such a single rate hike by the Fed is very rare. 6. Salem Abraham, president of Abraham Trading Company, believes that raising interest rates cannot solve current inflation because sticky inflation is more related to energy costs than labor costs; even if the Fed triples interest rates, it cannot prevent wars or lower energy prices. 7. North believes that inflation is spreading to other areas, with energy prices spilling over into core inflation, and tariff shifting also having an impact. This is precisely the problem the Fed needs to address through interest rate hikes. However, since last Saturday, crude oil prices have fallen about 14% from their recent high of $104.99 per barrel, with Brent crude trading around $99.67 per barrel in Asian trading on Friday. Coupled with declining US Treasury yields and weakness in technology stocks, traders have lowered their probability of a December rate hike from 82.7% on Wednesday to 68%.
09:25:07
[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Job Market Broadly Stable, Wage Growth Still Lagging Inflation] 1. The US labor market has remained broadly stable over the past six months, and the October non-farm payrolls report is not expected to change this. JOLTS job openings, weekly initial jobless claims, and the ISM survey all point to a market characterized by "low hiring and low layoffs." Dan North, chief economist at Allianz Trade North America, stated that consensus expectations remain unencouraging. 2. Economists' consensus expects the US to add 62,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate model estimates that the October unemployment rate may have slightly decreased to 4.14% from 4.18% in September, rounded to 4.1%; the model shows the layoff rate remains low at 2.01%, compared to 2.03% previously; the hiring rate has improved slightly to 46.18%, compared to 45.48% previously. 3. Regarding wages, average hourly earnings in October are projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, higher than September's 0.1%; the year-on-year growth rate is projected at 2.9%, lower than September's 3.0%. In contrast, the overall PCE inflation rate in September was 3.6%. The gap between inflation and wage growth is eroding consumer purchasing power as income growth lags behind price increases.
09:22:48
Overview of CNY HIBOR (Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate) and Changes: According to FX678, as of November 6, 2026, the CNY HIBOR rate changes for each period are shown in the table: the 1-week rate increased, the 3-week rate decreased, and the 5-week rate remained unchanged. The largest change was in the 3-month CNY HIBOR rate, which decreased by 1 basis point. As shown in the updated data, the overnight onshore RMB HIBOR was 1.37%, down 1 basis point; the 1-week rate was 1.42%, unchanged; the 2-week rate was 1.44%, up 1 basis point; the 1-month rate was 1.53%, down 1 basis point; the 2-month rate was 1.58%, unchanged; the 3-month rate was 1.64%, down 1 basis point; the 6-month rate was 1.75%, unchanged; the 9-month rate was 1.77%, unchanged; and the 1-year onshore RMB HIBOR was 1.78%, unchanged. (BP = basis points)
09:15:39
On November 6th, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was as follows (2/2): RMB/South African Rand: 2.4599, up 103.00 points; RMB/Korean Won: 202.9900, up 245.00 points; RMB/UAE Dirham: 0.5486, down 1.30 points; RMB/Saudi Riyal: 0.5606, down 1.60 points; RMB/Hungarian Forint: 48.3899, up 2411.00 points; RMB/Polish Złoty: 0.5847, up 23.00 points; RMB/Danish Krone: 0.9940, up 5.00 points; RMB/Swedish Krone: 1.4649, up 114.00 points; RMB/Norwegian Krone: 1.3890, down 4.00 points. The yuan was quoted at 7.4865 against the Turkish lira, up 145.80 points; the yuan was quoted at 2.7997 against the Mexican peso, up 242.00 points; and the yuan was quoted at 5.0038 against the Thai baht, down 211.00 points.
09:15:39
On November 6th, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was as follows (1/2): Swiss Franc to RMB: 8.2182, up 152.00 points; US Dollar to RMB: 6.7168, up 12.00 points; Euro to RMB: 7.5191, down 52.00 points; 100 Japanese Yen to RMB: 4.2534, up 251.00 points; Hong Kong Dollar to RMB: 0.8571, up 11.10 points; British Pound to RMB: 9.0152, down 78.00 points; Australian Dollar to RMB: 4.6417, down 481.00 points; New Zealand Dollar to RMB: 3.7472, down 178.00 points; Singapore Dollar to RMB: 5.2413, up 40.00 points. The Canadian dollar was quoted at 4.7782 against the Chinese yuan, down 127.00 points; the yuan was quoted at 0.6037 against the Malaysian ringgit, down 25.00 points; and the yuan was quoted at 12.2130 against the Russian ruble, down 329.00 points.
08:41:52
[“Blue Tsunami” Impacts AI Transactions: US and Asian Chip Stocks Plunge, Data Center Regulatory Risks Become Focus] (1) Following the Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the US midterm elections, market concerns about stricter regulations on AI and data centers triggered a continuous sell-off in tech stocks. (2) US stocks plummeted on Thursday: the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.5%, the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 6.4%, and the market value evaporated by $2.5 trillion; the S&P 500 component stocks lost about $3 trillion in market value; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%, Nvidia fell 9%, and AMD fell 17%. (3) Data centers and new cloud service providers suffered heavy losses: CoreWeave fell 10%, and its five-year CDS spread hit a record high; Nebius fell 15%, and Applied Digital, Cipher Digital and IREN all fell by more than 14%; the decline spread to related utilities and equipment suppliers. (4) Analysts say that the slowdown in data center construction may become a persistent theme; UBS estimates that about 30% of the new data center capacity expected in the United States in 2028 may be at risk due to the suspension of construction, and the timing of Anthropic's fall IPO may also be affected. (5) Several Democrats publicly criticized data centers: Sanders called for a nationwide suspension of data centers, and Ansari said it should be the top priority for the House Democratic majority; Andrews, Brown, Shapiro and Texas Governor-elect Hinojosa also advocated for restrictions or suspension of approvals. A CNBC poll showed that 56% of voters listed AI and data centers as key factors in their votes, of which 65% voted for Democrats. (6) Asian markets were under pressure: the Nikkei 225 fell below 60,000 points, down 6.5%, facing the risk of a technical bear market; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell more than 10% in early trading, dragging down the Kospi by 8.8%, and the exchange once suspended trading for 20 minutes. The Kospi has fallen 46% from its June high. (7) Market sentiment has shifted to panic selling, with the focus shifting from the prospects of AI to the cost of AI; AI remains transformative in the long term, but individual stock pricing faces significant volatility.
08:21:49
[South Korean chip stocks plummet, Kospi plunges 8.8%, market worries Democratic sweep of Congress slows AI development] (1) South Korean chip stocks plummeted as the market grew increasingly worried that a Democratic sweep of Congress in the United States might slow down the AI development boom. (2) On Friday morning, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares both plummeted by more than 10%, dragging down the South Korean Kospi index by 8.8%; the Korea Exchange suspended trading for 20 minutes shortly after opening. (3) Global stock markets suffered a major blow on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 index falling 6.4%, wiping out a record $2.3 trillion in market value. (4) This wave of decline dragged the main South Korean stock index below President Lee Jae-myung's 2025 target of 5,000 points; as the AI boom boosted chip manufacturers' profits, Kospi had previously quickly surpassed this target, but after market doubts about the prospects of AI increased, Kospi has plummeted 46% from its June high, and 5,000 points has once again become the focus of the market. (5) Kim Dojoon, CEO of Zian Investment Management, said the market has finally entered a panic selling phase; in today’s market, most market participants would probably be forced to sell.
08:03:26
[Trump Says "Major Deal" on Russia-Ukraine Relations Will Be Reached] US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on May 5 that a "major deal" on the Russia-Ukraine conflict would be reached, and he believed that the country was "very close" to resolving the issue. Trump said the agreement would not be limited to Ukraine and could even encompass the whole of Europe. Trump also said he met with Russian Presidential Special Representative Kirill Dmitriev at the White House, but not with Ukrainian representatives. He declined to reveal the specific content of the talks. Trump's wife, Melania Trump, met with Russian and Ukrainian officials at the White House on May 5 regarding the successful implementation of the Oreshki ceasefire. Kirill Dmitriev, David Allakhamia, chairman of the parliamentary group of the ruling Servant of the People party of Ukraine, and Dmytro Lubenets, the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) Commissioner for Human Rights, attended the event. Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, posted on social media that the United States, Ukraine, NATO, and European partners held productive and substantive discussions in Brussels on May 5, covering topics such as security guarantees for Ukraine and the broader European security architecture. U.S. Presidential Envoy Witkov posted on social media on the 2nd that the U.S. will mediate working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, from the 10th to the 11th, in an effort to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. (Xinhua)
07:32:56
[Japan's real wages rose for the ninth consecutive month in September, strengthening expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike] (1) Japan's real wages rose 2.2% year-on-year in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth, higher than the revised 1.6% in August, providing a basis for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates. (2) Average nominal wages rose 4.6% to 311,409 yen, the fastest increase since January 1997; basic wages rose 3.7%, overtime pay rose 3.6%; special allowances surged 32.6%, which the government said reflected statistical anomalies rather than increased bonuses. (3) The inflation rate that calculates real wages rose from 2.2% in August to 2.4% in September, still lower than 3.4% in the same period last year. (4) Tokyo's core inflation rate in October far exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target, and many analysts expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates as early as next month.
06:38:43
[Analyst: US Tech Stock Plunge Essentially a Liquidation of AI Trading Positions, Election Results the "Last Straw"] 1. Swissquote Bank senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya stated that, broadly speaking, Thursday's performance in US tech stocks was essentially a liquidation of AI trading positions. Ahead of this earnings season, market concerns about excessive AI spending overshadowed better-than-expected earnings from tech companies, and strong reports failed to boost investor interest. 2. She pointed out that massive spending, rising borrowing costs, and declining free cash flow for hyperscale cloud service providers had weakened market interest in tech stocks. These companies are issuing more stock and bonds to finance additional AI spending, and increased stock and bond issuance will put pressure on valuations. 3. Ozkardeskaya stated that this sentiment had already formed before this week and the midterm elections, and the election results were the final straw. The Trump administration's push for AI infrastructure development over the past two years may now be weakening; the current administration has overlooked many of AI's impacts on jobs, the economy, and the environment, and aggressive AI infrastructure development is expected to face stricter scrutiny.
06:22:46
[AI Trading Decline Intensifies, US Chip Stocks Suffer Heavy Losses] 1. US tech stocks plunged on Thursday, further deepening the recent correction in the AI sector. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted by more than 10% at one point during the session, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since March 2020. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 11.9% from its record closing high on October 6, confirming its entry into a technical correction phase. 2. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all recorded their largest single-day declines since April 3, 2025, with the S&P 500 component stocks losing approximately $3 trillion in market capitalization. More than a dozen large tech stocks, including AMD, SanDisk, Micron Technology, Dell Technologies, and Marvell Technology, all saw double-digit declines. 3. This is the latest wave of a continuous sell-off in the AI sector. The market has been under pressure this month, with weakness in the stock and bond markets weakening the financing capabilities of many participants in data center construction. 4. Meanwhile, dozens of referendum proposals restricting data center construction passed during the US midterm elections, potentially slowing down related construction in the coming months and even years, further dampening sentiment towards AI trading.
06:12:07
[Iran Submits Nuclear Proposal to US via Qatar, Insists on Seven Conditions First] 1. A senior Iranian official said on Thursday that Iran has submitted a nuclear proposal to the United States through Qatar, but the two sides will only discuss the proposal after Washington meets seven demands put forward by Tehran. The official said the US is reviewing the proposal but declined to provide further details. 2. Due to concerns that the war may escalate again after the US midterm elections, mediators have recently stepped up efforts to end the Iran-US war. Trump said on Tuesday that he did not rule out resuming military operations after the election; Iran, on the other hand, said it would expand retaliatory actions if the war resumes. 3. Iran's security chief, Rezaei, said during a visit to Russia that Iran has announced seven conditions to the US. Iran will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor begin negotiations until the US fulfills these conditions. Iran's demands include lifting US sanctions, unfreezing frozen Iranian assets, and paying war reparations. 4. The US, however, said the nuclear issue must be part of any initial negotiations. The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, and Iran subsequently attacked Israel and Gulf states hosting US military bases. The conflict subsequently spread to Lebanon, where Hezbollah, backed by Iran, clashed with Israel; more recently, the fighting has spread to Yemen, with Houthi rebels launching repeated attacks on Saudi energy facilities, airports, and other targets.
00:48:02
[Report: Iran Reviewing Specific Proposals on Nuclear Issue, New Progress in US-Iran Talks] Five sources familiar with the matter said that Iran is reviewing a series of specific proposals on the nuclear issue put forward by the mediators, indicating progress in the Qatar-led US-Iran diplomatic mediation. In the past week, Qatar held two rounds of talks in Tehran, hosted a third round in Doha, and met with Iranian officials in Armenia. US Vice President Vance is also actively promoting negotiations, and both sides are reviewing the latest proposals in an attempt to bridge their differences. Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, publicly stated that he would not negotiate on the nuclear issue until the US meets Iran's conditions, but sources said he has privately shown greater openness to discussing the nuclear issue. Iran's main demands include unfreezing assets, lifting oil sanctions, and the US maritime blockade of Iranian ports. The main point of contention on the nuclear issue is the disposal of its highly enriched uranium stockpile: Trump demands that Iran hand over its stockpile, while Iran refuses to ship the enriched uranium out of the country, having previously discussed dilution within its borders under the supervision of international inspectors. Meanwhile, the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up a list of targets for strikes against Iran, including energy and key economic facilities. Iran warned it would retaliate more severely if attacked again, and its top officials also discussed withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Gulf states are concerned that a renewed conflict could damage their economies, and UAE President's foreign policy advisor, Gargash, called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
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