2026-09-19 Saturday
2026-09-19
15:09:37
[European Institutions Adjust US Treasury Allocations, Long-Term Pressure Draws Attention] ⑴ The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note recently broke through 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. ⑵ As the total US federal government debt surpassed $40 trillion in August, some European institutions have begun adjusting their asset allocations, including US Treasuries. ⑶ The pressure facing the US Treasury market has attracted further attention. ⑷ The Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management Company (NZN) has recommended reducing the proportion of government bonds in its benchmark bond investments from 70% to 50%. ⑸ Some institutions estimate that if the adjustments are ultimately implemented, the fund's current holdings of approximately $215 billion in US Treasury bonds could decrease by nearly $80 billion. ⑹ US Treasury bonds will be the single government bond type with the largest reduction in this adjustment. ⑺ Swiss asset management firm Swiscanto released a report stating that the recent breakout of the 30-year US Treasury yield from its previous trading range has led to a reduction in long-term US Treasury bond allocations. ⑻ Brown-Shippy believes that while the US Treasury's expansion of long-term Treasury bond repurchases can temporarily support bond prices, it is unlikely to solve the fundamental fiscal problems in the long run. (9) The institution maintains its underweight recommendation for US Treasuries in the short term. (10) From a market sentiment perspective, the combined effect of overseas allocation adjustments and fiscal supply pressures makes it difficult for the supporting factors for long-term yields to dissipate in the short term. (11) Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of portfolio adjustments by overseas institutions, the maturity structure of bond issuances, and changes in term premiums.
15:06:13
[Yu Yuan Tan Tian: Anthropic Hands Over Global User Data to US Intelligence Agencies After 13 Revisions to User Privacy Agreement in 3 Years] On September 12, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and xAI founder Elon Musk reached a rare public consensus late at night in the US, believing that AI development needs to slow down. Ironically, Amodei, who champions AI security, acts in stark contrast. On September 14, foreign media revealed that Nvidia and several other US companies have begun restricting or halting the use of Anthropic's cutting-edge models. One of the triggers for US companies ceasing to use large US models is Anthropic's unilateral modification of its data retention agreement: mandating the retention of user interaction data for 30 days for security reviews, with users having no right to refuse. This is not the first time it has modified its user data agreement. Tan Zhu reviewed the 13 revisions of Anthropic's Privacy Policy since its initial release in 2023 and compared them with the ISO/IEC 27701 privacy information management system standard, finding that Anthropic's user privacy data security risks are increasing. To become an intelligence center, data alone is not enough; you also need people. In July 2026, Anthropic posted three "Threat Intelligence Manager" positions on its website. Two of these positions prioritized candidates with the following qualifications: fluency in Mandarin or Russian, experience in intelligence analysis in government or military environments, and a U.S. "Top Secret Security Clearance." These positions were responsible for investigating whether user interaction data contained information about foreign government-backed propaganda manipulation or model "distillation." On September 10th, an Anthropic threat intelligence report, highly consistent with the job descriptions in the July job postings, was released, analyzing approximately 200 million interactions between users and the Claude model suspected of being "distilled." The strategy involved first collecting data worldwide to define "threats," then recruiting "insiders" to analyze the data, and finally adapting the company's security standards to U.S. standards. When American standards are pushed to the world, the "risks of AI development" mentioned by Amodei will naturally cease to exist.
12:08:00
[Eurogroup: Rising Energy Prices Exacerbate Economic Pressure on Europe] ⑴ The Eurogroup held a meeting in Dublin, Ireland on the 18th to discuss the latest economic situation in the Eurozone. ⑵ Participants focused on the impact of recent oil and gas price increases on the economy, residents, and businesses, as well as countermeasures. ⑶ Eurogroup President Pierakakis stated after the meeting that new developments in the Middle East have again pushed up oil and gas prices, directly impacting European residents and businesses. ⑷ He said that Europe must accelerate its energy independence, which is closely related to the European economy, competitiveness, and security. ⑸ Its importance is more urgent than ever before. ⑹ From a market sentiment perspective, high energy costs are continuing to suppress European consumption and industrial activity, and expectations for policy responses are rising. ⑺ Going forward, attention needs to be paid to whether coordinated measures can be introduced at the EU level, as well as the progress of energy import diversification and reserve replenishment.
12:07:38
[California Governor Signs Executive Order Mandating Reporting of Abnormal AI Agent Behavior] ⑴ California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, signed an executive order on Friday, stating that it will significantly accelerate the implementation of artificial intelligence safety measures. ⑵ These measures may require companies to install kill switches, or emergency shutdown mechanisms, for advanced AI models. ⑶ Newsom, considered a potential 2028 presidential candidate, stated that the federal government's oversight of AI is inadequate, making this order necessary. ⑷ The executive order will convene an expert panel to provide guidance within two months, clarifying how California should improve its AI safety laws. ⑸ Proposals include requiring AI labs to undergo regular audits and mandating reporting of out-of-control incidents of abnormal AI agent behavior. ⑹ It also includes promoting the equipping cutting-edge AI models with kill switches. ⑺ From a market sentiment perspective, state-level regulation may increase compliance costs for AI companies, but its short-term impact on the overall industry expansion is limited. ⑻ The details of the guidance plan, whether it will be enacted into legislation, and whether other states will follow suit with similar regulations need to be monitored.
09:04:53
[Eurozone Bonds Fall, French Risk Premium Hits Highest Level Since 2012] ⑴ Eurozone bond prices fell on Friday, with the spread between French and German 10-year bond yields widening to its highest level since 2012. ⑵ Global central banks intensified their efforts to combat inflation, with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates after the European Central Bank. ⑶ The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged but hinted that it might raise borrowing costs if energy inflation triggered by the Middle East conflict worsens. ⑷ The yield on French 10-year bonds rose 13 basis points to 4.573%, and the Franco-German yield spread reached a full percentage point for the first time since July 2012. ⑸ The yield rose 12.5 basis points this week, the largest increase among G7 countries; the French two-year yield rose 15 basis points to 3.536%. ⑹ Economists say that due to a lack of catalysts to substantially improve the fiscal outlook, the French yield spread is expected to continue to widen. ⑺ Amid increasing pressure in the bond market and voter dissatisfaction with the cost of living, the French Prime Minister is working to finalize a 2027 budget aimed at controlling the deficit. (8) The cost of insuring against a French debt default has risen to its highest level since April 2025, and is higher than in any other developed economy. (9) The German 10-year yield rose 4 basis points to 3.52%, and the Italian 10-year yield rose 9 basis points to 4.43%. (10) Following the Federal Reserve's more restrictive stance, central banks may further strengthen their policy tightening bias. (11) However, investors are still betting that the path of rising interest rates will be more aggressive than predicted in the US policymakers' dot plot. (12) Money market data shows that traders expect the ECB's benchmark interest rate to rise from the current 2.5% to nearly 3% by the end of the year, and to about 3.27% in March, implying three more rate hikes in the next six months. (13) The German two-year yield rose 5 basis points to 3.263%, accumulating a rise of nearly 9 basis points this week, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases. (14) From a market sentiment perspective, fiscal credibility and austerity expectations are jointly pushing up the interest rate differential between peripheral and core Eurozone countries. 12. Going forward, attention should be paid to the details of the French budget, the statements of rating agencies, and the pace of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank.
07:25:28
[US Grain Barge Freight Rates Rise, Harvest Season Demand Supports Near-Month Prices] ⑴ US barge industry data shows that for the week ending September 13, freight rates on major routes such as the St. Louis 12-foot and Illinois River were quoted at $850 to $900 (based on benchmark tariffs). ⑵ Prices rose to $900 to $950 in the week ending September 20, and further to $950 to $1000 in the week ending September 27, showing a stepped upward trend for near-month freight rates. ⑶ Prices remained high at $950 to $1000 in the first half of October, then fell back to $800 to $850 in the second half, and further decreased to $675 to $725 in November. ⑷ Prices fell to $625 to $675 in December, and continued to decline in a stepped manner from January to March and April to July of the following year, reaching a low of $500 to $550. (5) The Memphis-Cairo segment followed a similar trend, rising to 975-1025 in late September before declining month by month, reaching a low of 400-450 from April to July of the following year. (6) The Ohio River Jeffersonville-Cincinnati segment quoted 925-975 in late September, then declined month by month, falling to 500-550 from April to July of the following year. (7) Upstream routes such as St. Paul to Savage, McGregor, and Davenport also showed a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness. (8) In some months, such as December, no quotes were recorded for the St. Paul to Savage route, indicating weak forward trading. (9) From a market sentiment perspective, the concentrated release of grain shipping demand during the autumn harvest season is the main factor driving up near-month freight rates. (10) With the slowdown in the pace of new crop market entry and changes in river transport conditions, forward quotes are gradually returning to the normal range. (11) Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of harvest progress, export loading pace, and water levels on barge turnover efficiency. 12 Overall, near-month freight rates are supported by seasonal demand, while long-term rates reflect expectations of ample supply and declining demand.
07:12:44
[Japanese authorities conduct currency checks, causing the yen to surge in the short term] ⑴ According to Nikkei, Japanese authorities conducted currency checks in the foreign exchange market, pushing the yen sharply higher. ⑵ Previously, despite the Bank of Japan's decision last Friday to raise interest rates to a 31-year high of 1.25%, the yen continued to weaken. ⑶ Currency checks are usually seen as a preparatory step before intervention, and market vigilance regarding actual market intervention has increased. ⑷ From a market sentiment perspective, yen short sellers became more cautious after the news was announced, and short-term volatility rose significantly. ⑸ The Japanese Ministry of Finance has not yet immediately responded to requests for comment, and whether it will escalate into substantive intervention remains to be seen. ⑹ Overall, the interplay between interest rate differentials and expectations of government intervention will be a key variable in the short-term yen's movement.
06:54:57
[Midterm Elections Approaching: Morgan Stanley Assesses Congressional Landscape and Market Variables] ⑴ With the Federal Reserve's September meeting concluded, strategists are turning their attention to the November US midterm elections. ⑵ Morgan Stanley's Gerald G. Graham noted in a report that Republicans currently hold 220 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats hold 215, their narrowest majority since 1930. ⑶ This means that Democrats only need to gain 3 seats to seize control, while Republicans cannot afford to lose more than 2. ⑷ In polls asking voters which party they would currently vote for, the Democratic lead has widened to 8.1 percentage points, and the president's approval rating hovers around 40%. ⑸ The consumer confidence index is 47.8, well below the historical average of 85 for election years, and regular gasoline prices have risen 29.5% since August 2025. ⑹ 47% of registered voters said the cost of living is the most important factor influencing their vote, up from 39% in January. (7) Considering the aforementioned concerns, the concentration of undecided districts in Republican-controlled seats, and the historical average loss of 30 seats in the House of Representatives by the incumbent president's party, Glaser believes the Republicans face a difficult election. (8) However, the institution's baseline scenario forecast indicates that although the risk of the Republicans losing control of the House is substantial, they should be able to retain control of the Senate. (9) The Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to obtain an absolute majority in the Senate. As of September 16, the forecast market indicated an 86% to 88% probability of the Democrats controlling the House and only a 54% to 59% probability in the Senate. (10) Historically, the long-term performance of equity markets differs between a divided Congress and a unified Congress, but past statistics do not constitute guidance for future trends. (11) Overall, the election landscape and expectations of policy divergence will be important variables for market sentiment in the coming months.
06:54:08
[Focus: French bonds under pressure, yen fluctuates wildly, US manufacturing unexpectedly weakens] ⑴ Trump says he will ban some major news outlets from entering the White House. ⑵ US manufacturing output unexpectedly fell 0.3% month-on-month in August, compared to an estimated 0.3% increase; rising oil prices and interest rates may have outweighed some of the support from AI construction. ⑶ Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Bowman says a vote will be held in the coming weeks on the final version of stress test reforms for large banks. ⑷ Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed support for a rate hike this week, believing that inflation is trending above the 2% target and is not solely driven by energy costs. ⑸ ECB President Lagarde says interest rates will not move in tandem with energy prices, cooling expectations of aggressive rate hikes. ⑹ Eurozone finance ministers are concerned but not anxious about rising bond yields, emphasizing the need to adhere to the approved fiscal path. ⑺ The yield on French 10-year bonds rose 13 basis points to 4.573%, and the Franco-German interest rate spread reached a full percentage point for the first time since July 2012. (8) Nikkei reported that a currency inquiry by Japanese authorities pushed the yen sharply higher, with the dollar/yen exchange rate briefly touching a two-week high of 158.05. (9) Putin's special envoy is reportedly planning to meet with the leadership of Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to discuss resuming gas supplies to Germany, possibly as early as March. (10) Saudi Aramco has informed at least two European refining clients that they will not receive crude oil next month due to an attack on a key pipeline. (11) US stocks traded quietly on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.17% and the Nasdaq rising 0.40%, led by the technology sector; oil prices fell, with Brent crude settling at $104.87 per barrel.
06:47:05
[US Treasury Yields Rise Across the Board, 2-Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since July 2024] ⑴ US Treasury yields rose on Friday, with the 2-year yield climbing to its highest level since July 2024. ⑵ This followed the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years this week, and investors are assessing the subsequent path of interest rates. ⑶ As inflation concerns intensify, the market is closely watching the prospects for a new round of global interest rate hikes. ⑷ The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to its highest level in 31 years on Friday, with the governor stating that it has entered a new phase of preventing inflation from exceeding its target. ⑸ The Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday and hinted at further tightening in the coming months, with the chairman making hawkish comments. ⑹ Some strategists say that the 2-year yield will fluctuate in tandem with rate hike expectations, and the market is currently more inclined to price in more rate hikes than rule them out. ⑺ Futures data shows that traders expect a greater than 55% probability of another rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in October, up from 53% on Thursday evening. (8) The spread between 2-year and 10-year yields was last at approximately 25.5 basis points, having touched 23.8 basis points intraday, the flattest since June 25. (9) The short end rose faster than the long end, partly due to rising expectations of interest rate hikes, while the Fed's intention to control inflation limited the rise in the long end. (10) Some believe that, for long-term bonds, this meeting somewhat calmed market anxieties. (11) Friday's data showed that US manufacturing output unexpectedly declined in August after seven consecutive months of growth, but yields mostly maintained their gains. (12) The surge in oil prices related to the US-Israel conflict over Iran was one source of inflation concerns, although oil prices retreated somewhat after China urged Iran to restrain Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. (13) The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 5%, up 5.3 basis points, after touching a new high since 2007 at 5.041% on Tuesday. 14. The 2-year yield rose 5.3 basis points to 4.743%, after previously reaching 4.7475%; the 30-year yield rose 3.6 basis points to 5.332%.
05:39:43
On Friday, September 18th, during the late New York trading session, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 6.57 basis points to close at 4.9961%, a cumulative increase of 2.92 basis points for the week, fluctuating within a range of 4.9183% to 5.0390%. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note rose 7.92 basis points to close at 4.7433%, a cumulative increase of 11.79 basis points for the week, trading between 4.5975% and 4.7583%, reaching a new high since the end of April 2023, and is currently approaching the previous high of 5.0434% reached on April 30, 2024. Previously, on September 16th, the day the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate hike, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a significant short-term jump.
03:46:29
The US dollar index retreated on October 18. As a measure of the dollar's performance against six major currencies, the dollar index fell 0.03% that day, closing at 100.222 in the late trading session. At the close of trading in the New York foreign exchange market, the euro was trading at 1.1483 against the dollar, up from 1.1475 the previous day; the pound was trading at 1.3391 against the dollar, also higher than the previous day's 1.3353. On the other hand, the dollar was trading at 156.68 against the yen, up from 156.04 the previous day; the dollar was trading at 0.8221 against the Swiss franc, down from 0.8248 the previous day; the dollar was trading at 1.3993 against the Canadian dollar, slightly higher than the previous day's 1.3992; and the dollar was trading at 9.8333 against the Swedish krona, also slightly higher than the previous day's 9.8256. The slight decline in the US dollar index reflects the interplay between bullish and bearish forces in the foreign exchange market that day. The divergence in the rise and fall of different currencies against the US dollar also reflects the differentiated impact of multiple factors, such as expectations of relevant economic fundamentals and market capital flows, on exchange rates.
03:34:46
On Friday, September 18th, during the late New York trading session, the ICE Dollar Index edged down 0.05%, closing at 100.200 points, a weekly gain of 1.08%, maintaining an overall upward trend. The index traded between 99.093 and 100.564 points this week. The Bloomberg Dollar Index was essentially unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at 1202.78 points, a weekly gain of 1.03%, trading between 1190.51 and 1206.24 points. Overall, the dollar index showed a relatively strong performance this week, with both major indices recording weekly gains of approximately 1%, and both testing recent highs, reflecting the dollar's recent relative strength in the foreign exchange market.
02:42:49
Traders' bullish sentiment towards the yen has slightly improved, triggered by recent news that the Bank of Japan is conducting a survey of exchange rate conditions. However, compared to the market reactions at the end of July when Tokyo intervened in the foreign exchange market, and in early September when US Treasury Secretary Bessenter publicly urged the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, market expectations for yen appreciation are now much more subdued. The USD/JPY 1-week risk reversal indicator has fallen twice in three trading days, further into negative territory: it recorded -2.17% on Friday, -2.02% on Thursday, and -1.98% a week ago, indicating relatively higher market demand for put options. In recent months, traders have generally maintained a bullish stance on the yen, with put options betting on a decline in USD/JPY over the next week being quoted higher than call options betting on an increase in the currency pair. However, current market expectations for yen appreciation over the next week are much more moderate compared to the extreme levels seen in early September and late July to early August.
01:52:17
Bank of America expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by more than 5%, advising clients to position for higher 2-year yields. Bank of America's strategist team points out that investors need to prepare for the potential risk of the Fed raising the benchmark interest rate above 5%. The team, led by Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber, states that the current interest rate market still underestimates the potential interest rate level that the Fed's rate hike cycle, which began this week, may ultimately reach. They urge clients to position for further increases in the 2-year US Treasury yield. Current swap market prices indicate that the Fed will implement three more 25-basis-point rate hikes, which would raise the effective federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. However, Bank of America believes that overnight borrowing costs are likely to return to the highs of the 2022-2023 rate hike cycle, when the federal funds target rate reached a high of 5.5%. Bank of America predicts that the 2-year US Treasury yield will rise to 5% this year from approximately 4.7% last Friday, a prediction that differs from current market expectations. The strategy team also noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's statement regarding Wednesday's rate hike, which reversed the "some degree of easing," is sufficient to show that Fed officials do not currently believe that monetary policy has become a constraint on the US economy.
00:31:57
[Large Shipments of Copper Arrive in the US, Causing Severe Congestion at New Orleans Port] The Liberian-flagged bulk carrier "Nord Norfolk" is crossing the Atlantic to New Orleans, carrying approximately $500 million worth of African copper. This is the highest-value single shipment of commodities ever recorded by data analytics firm Kpler. According to sources, the Port of New Orleans is a crucial global metals transshipment hub and a core hub for COMEX copper warehouses on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Currently, the port's storage capacity is nearing saturation. It is understood that approximately 100,000 tons of copper from Africa and South America will arrive at the port in September and October. Strong US copper import demand is a key driver behind record-high copper prices. Since Trump first formally proposed tariffs on copper last February, the global benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange has risen by about 50%. However, in recent weeks, market doubts have increased regarding whether Trump will actually implement the tariff policy, leading to a narrowing of the price difference between US and international copper prices. Relevant indicators show that the current arbitrage spread is $169 per ton, while the peak this year reached $789 per ton. With a significant increase in US warehousing demand, warehousing companies are applying to COMEX for additional storage capacity. The exchange stated that since the beginning of 2025, 20 new warehouses have been added, increasing copper storage capacity by nearly 725,000 short tons, a figure roughly equivalent to 39% of the annual US refined copper consumption.
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