Sydney:12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo:12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong:12/24 22:26:56

Singapore:12/24 22:26:56

Dubai:12/24 22:26:56

London:12/24 22:26:56

New York:12/24 22:26:56

2025-12-19 Friday

2025-12-19

09:27:45

The yen hovered near recent lows as markets awaited the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. 1. The yen traded in a narrow range near recent lows on Friday, with the USD/JPY pair currently at 155.76, not far from the ten-month low of 157.90 reached in November. Traders are closely watching whether the Bank of Japan's meeting will further confirm its path of continued interest rate hikes next year. The euro weakened slightly after the European Central Bank did not signal a rate hike. 2. Following hints from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier this month, investors almost unanimously expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% later on Friday. Market focus will shift to his tone and outlook for future policy. 3. According to sources, the Bank of Japan will not release its latest estimate of the neutral interest rate this time, nor will it use it as its primary communication tool. Instead, it will rely on Ueda to outline the interest rate path at a press conference (14:30 Beijing time). 4. Yuxuan Tang, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, stated, "We expect a rate hike; fundamentally, it's long overdue. However, this move is unlikely to trigger a significant rebound in the yen. The message from the authorities may indicate that the next rate hike is still some time away. Nevertheless, if the rate is unexpectedly kept unchanged, the USD/JPY exchange rate could surge, potentially leading to a market confidence crisis and forcing the authorities to intervene directly to stabilize the yen."

09:02:49

[Bank of Japan May Raise Interest Rates Further, Potentially Hitting Nearly 30-Year High] 1. The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting ending on Friday, increasing the policy rate from the current 0.5% to 0.75%. If this prediction comes true, it will be the Bank of Japan's first rate hike since January of this year, bringing interest rates to their highest level since 1995. 2. This rate hike is seen as another key step by the Bank of Japan in normalizing its monetary policy. Although the adjusted interest rate remains low globally, it signifies that the country is gradually moving away from its long-standing ultra-loose policy environment. Market focus will be on the press conference held by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda after the decision is announced, to assess the pace and magnitude of future rate hikes. 3. The main background to this policy adjustment is persistent inflation above the 2% target level and a stabilizing wage growth outlook. The Bank of Japan policymakers believe that these two factors will jointly support sustained inflation stability near the target. In addition, recent fluctuations in the yen exchange rate have exacerbated policymakers' concerns about imported inflation, thus reinforcing the necessity of a rate hike. 4. Most economists believe that after this rate hike, the Bank of Japan's policy rate will be closer to its "neutral" economic forecast range. The market expects the central bank not to update its assessment of the neutral interest rate at this meeting, but Kazuo Ueda may reiterate that the central bank is prepared to continue adjusting policy in the future, while avoiding commitments regarding specific timing and magnitude. 5. Surveys show that the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to at least 1% by the end of September 2026. Future policy direction will depend closely on the strength of the economic recovery, the sustainability of wage growth, and the evolution of the inflation outlook.

08:01:02

The Gfk Consumer Confidence Index for the UK in December

Previous : -19 Forecast : -18

英镑 金银
美元

Published Value -17

Previous

07:30:04

Japan's national CPI annual rate in November

Previous : 3% Forecast : 2.90%

Neutral

Published Value 2.90%

Previous

07:30:03

Japan's national core CPI annual rate for November

Previous : 3% Forecast : 3%

Neutral

Published Value 3%

Previous

07:18:13

SPDR Gold positions in the US on December 18th - Updated Daily

Previous : 1052.54 Forecast : -

Published Value 1052.54

Previous

07:18:13

SPDR Gold position changes in the US on December 18th - Daily

Previous : 0.86 Forecast : -

Published Value 0

Previous

07:16:29

iShares Gold position changes in the US on December 18th - Daily

Previous : 0.59 Forecast : -

Published Value 0.76

Previous

07:16:28

iShares Gold Holdings in the US on December 18th - Updated Daily

Previous : 490.36 Forecast : -

Published Value 491.12

Previous

05:45:03

New Zealand's trade balance for November

Previous : -15.42 Forecast : -

Published Value -1.63

Previous

05:33:29

U.S. COMEX Silver inventories as of December 17 - Updated Daily

Previous : 4529507.83 Forecast : -

Published Value 4531762.17

Previous

05:33:29

COMEX silver inventory changes in the US on December 17th - Daily

Previous : -8953.55 Forecast : -

Published Value 2254.34

Previous

05:32:46

COMEX gold inventory in the United States on December 17th - Updated Daily

Previous : 359913.45 Forecast : -

Published Value 360701.60

Previous

05:32:46

COMEX gold inventory changes in the US on December 17th - Daily

Previous : 0 Forecast : -

Published Value 788.15

Previous

05:00:03

Foreign capital net purchases of long-term securities in the United States in October

Previous : 1798 Forecast : -

Published Value 175

Previous

2025-12-18 Thursday

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