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2026-04-09 Thursday

2026-04-09

22:00:23

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States for February

Previous : -0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.80%

Previous

22:00:14

Preliminary reading of the monthly rate of wholesale inventories in the United States for February

Previous : -0.50% Forecast : -

Published Value 0.80%

Previous

21:35:50

[White House Bets on Warsh to Take Over as Fed Chair in May, Powell's Future Remains Uncertain] ⑴ White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Thursday that he is highly confident that Kevin Warsh will take over as Fed chair in May, and expects current chair Powell not to remain on the Fed Board of Governors. ⑵ Hassett revealed that Warsh's confirmation hearings are expected to begin next week, and said that Powell has given a clear signal that he will step down once the new chair is confirmed, a move seen as appropriate and in accordance with regulations. ⑶ However, Powell publicly stated in March that he would not leave the Fed until at least the criminal investigation against him is completed, and has not yet decided whether to continue serving his term on the Board of Governors, which expires in 2028. His term as Fed chair will expire in May. ⑷ A US judge last week upheld the ruling to freeze subpoenas related to the investigation, and the resulting appeals process could further delay the Trump administration's timeline for installing a more compliant central bank leader. (5) Analysts point out that the certainty and timing of the leadership transition at the Federal Reserve are crucial to market interest rate expectations. If Warsh takes over smoothly and Powell completely withdraws from the Board of Governors, the tone of monetary policy may undergo a subtle shift, while any delay in the legal process will prolong the wait-and-see period of the current policy framework.

20:41:32

[US Initial Jobless Claims Rise Moderately, But Employment Stagnation Remains a Double-Edged Sword] ⑴ Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 16,000 to 219,000, slightly higher than the 210,000 expected by surveys, but still at historically low levels. ⑵ The low layoff rate continues to provide a floor for the labor market. So far, there are no signs that employers have initiated layoffs due to the oil price shock caused by the US-Israel war with Iran, and the resilience of the job market exceeds previous market concerns. ⑶ Although non-farm payrolls rebounded by 178,000 in March, the median duration of unemployment climbed to 11.4 weeks, the longest in nearly four and a half years, and the labor market is deeply mired in what economists call a stalemate of low hiring and low layoffs. ⑷ Uncertainty stemming from Trump's tariff rhetoric and large-scale deportation policies is considered the core trigger for this round of hiring freezes. Companies tend to freeze new jobs rather than lay off existing employees before the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer. (5) The number of continuing jobless claims decreased by 38,000 to 1.794 million in the week ending March 28. However, this decline in continuing claims was partly due to unemployed individuals exiting the statistical scope after exhausting the 26-week claim period, rather than an actual improvement in the employment situation. (6) Young adults lacking work experience were most severely impacted by the labor market downturn, as they typically do not qualify for unemployment benefits. The actual extent of unemployment may be systematically underestimated by official data. (7) The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that more and more policymakers believed that interest rate hikes might be necessary to combat inflation. The modest rebound in initial jobless claims is not enough to change the wait-and-see attitude of policymakers. However, if the low employment situation continues to erode residents' income expectations, the foundation of consumer resilience will face the risk of gradual erosion.

20:40:10

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Soybean total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 35.33 Forecast : -

Published Value 29.54

Previous

20:39:45

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Corn total for two years -USDA weekly

Previous : 125.20 Forecast : -

Published Value 137.28

Previous

20:36:48

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - cotton for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 37.15 Forecast : -

Published Value 31.96

Previous

20:35:55

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - wheat for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 2.35 Forecast : -

Published Value 16.36

Previous

20:34:17

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - soybeans for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 35.33 Forecast : -

Published Value 29.54

Previous

20:34:04

U.S. net export sales as of April 2 - Corn for the current year -USDA weekly

Previous : 114.94 Forecast : -

Published Value 136.13

Previous

20:33:57

[US PCE Inflation Meets Expectations Across the Board; Core Indicators Remain Sticky, Testing the Narrative of Interest Rate Cuts] ⑴ The overall US PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in February, in line with market expectations, compared to 0.3% previously; the year-on-year increase remained stable at 2.8%, also fully in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month. ⑵ The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, also recorded a 0.4% month-on-month increase, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month; the year-on-year increase slightly declined to 3.0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous 3.1%, but still stubbornly above the Fed's 2% policy target. ⑶ Further excluding the housing component, the core PCE showed that the price index excluding food, energy, and housing rose 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month, indicating that the underlying inflationary pressures other than housing costs have not shown signs of easing. ⑷ The PCE price index for services, excluding energy and housing, rose only 0.2% month-on-month, a significant cooling from 0.5% in January, indicating a marginal weakening of inflationary momentum on the service side, one of the few signs of easing in the inflation landscape. (5) Analysts point out that although the core year-on-year reading has slightly declined, the annualized rate of increase of 0.4% month-on-month is still close to 5%. Coupled with the fact that the lagged transmission of the Middle East situation's impact on oil prices to the March data has not yet been reflected, the Federal Reserve's confidence in a sustained return of inflation to its target is unlikely to be rebuilt in the short term. (6) After the data release, the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remained largely unchanged. Expectations for rate cuts are still constrained by both inflation stickiness and geopolitical premiums. The focus has quickly shifted to whether the upcoming March CPI report can provide clearer evidence of an inflation turning point.

20:30:18

U.S. personal spending monthly rate for February

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.50%

Neutral

Published Value 0.50%

Previous

20:30:18

The final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of consumer spending in the United States for the fourth quarter

Previous : 2% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.90%

Previous

20:30:18

The final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for the fourth quarter

Previous : 2.70% Forecast : 2.70%

Neutral

Published Value 2.70%

Previous

20:30:16

The quarter-on-quarter rate of the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP deflator - seasonally adjusted final value

Previous : 3.80% Forecast : -

Published Value 3.70%

Previous

20:30:14

The year-on-year rate of the core PCE price index in the United States for February

Previous : 3.10% Forecast : 3%

Neutral

Published Value 3%

Previous

20:30:14

The annual rate of the PCE price index in the United States for February

Previous : 2.80% Forecast : 2.80%

Neutral

Published Value 2.80%

Previous

20:30:09

The final reading of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States for the fourth quarter

Previous : 0.70% Forecast : 0.70%

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 0.50%

Previous

20:30:05

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 4

Previous : 20.20 Forecast : 21

金银 石油
美元

Published Value 21.90

Previous

20:30:05

The number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits for the week ending March 29

Previous : 184.10 Forecast : 184

美元
金银 石油

Published Value 179.40

Previous

20:29:34

U.S. personal spending monthly rate for February

Previous : 0.40% Forecast : 0.50%

金银 欧元
美元

Published Value 0.40%

Previous

18:12:24

[Global Yield Spread Scan: US Treasuries Short-Term Pricing is Hawkish, Japanese Bonds Show Significant Advantage] ⑴ As of Wednesday, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note was 3.798%, lower only than Australia's 4.637% and the UK's 4.251% among major developed economies, and a premium of 123.7 basis points over the 2-year German bond. ⑵ The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note was 4.290%, lower than the UK's 4.719% and Australia's 4.925%, but still 130.5 basis points higher than the 10-year German bond, indicating that the US Treasury yield curve is relatively hawkish in pricing inflation stickiness and policy rate paths. ⑶ Japanese bond yields are at an absolute low in the global yield spread pattern, with a 2-year yield of only 1.390%, 240.8 basis points lower than the US yield, and a 10-year yield of 2.397%, 189.3 basis points lower than the US yield, continuing to constitute a major source of liabilities for carry trades. (4) Institutional analysis points out that with the Iran war pushing up global inflation premiums and shipping disruptions in the Hormuz exacerbating supply chain uncertainty, the relatively firm yields on short-term US Treasury bonds reflect a continued narrowing of market bets on the extent of Fed rate cuts this year. (5) The interest rate spread between core and peripheral European countries remains narrowing. The premium of Italian 10-year bonds over German bonds is only 78.7 basis points, and the premium of French bonds is 64.7 basis points, indicating that the market's pricing of Eurozone sovereign risk premiums has not yet shown significant divergence. (6) It is worth noting that if the situation in the Middle East escalates again, triggering a surge in oil prices, Japanese bond yields may face upward pressure. At that time, a global carry trade unwinding wave may cause temporary disruptions to high-yield currencies and risk assets.

18:00:49

[Sanctions as a Bargaining Tool: Exemption Extensions May Lead to a Restructuring of Crude Oil Supply Expectations] ⑴ According to a report by the US financial media Semafor, citing former Treasury and State Department officials, the Trump administration is expected to extend sanctions waivers for Russian crude oil this week. The current waiver window was originally scheduled to expire on April 11. ⑵ The aforementioned former sanctions official believes that extending the Russian oil waiver will pave the way for the Iranian oil waiver, which expires on April 19. This move signifies a functional shift in sanctions during Trump's second term, transforming them from a primary measure for exerting economic pressure into a flexible tool for gaining bargaining power amidst market volatility. ⑶ US Treasury Secretary Bessant previously explained that approving the sale of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil already en route was intended to subtly buffer the economic impact of the Iran war and is expected to effectively increase global supply, thereby lowering oil prices. ⑷ With restricted passage in the Strait of Hormuz and over 230 oil tankers stranded, causing supply-side bottlenecks, if the US extends sanctions waivers for the two major oil-producing countries, Russia and Iran, the global marginal supply of crude oil is expected to see a phased recovery. (5) Market attention will focus on the actual tanker capacity released after the exemption extension. If the increase in supply is sufficient to offset the geopolitical premium, the short-term bullish sentiment for crude oil may experience a significant cooling and a restructuring of expectations.

15:15:28

[Gasoline and Airfare Prices Unlikely to Fall Quickly After Ceasefire, Experts Say It Will Take Weeks or Even Longer] 1. US gasoline prices are expected to decline slowly, but not rapidly. The ceasefire news triggered a sharp drop in oil prices on Wednesday, but the price decline typically takes three to five days to reach the retail level, and the retail price drop is even slower. GasBuddy predicts that oil prices may fall by 1-3 cents every few days until the end of the week, but any new escalation of the situation could reverse the decline. 2. Raymond James analysts estimate that Wednesday's sharp drop in oil prices alone should have reduced the national retail price of gasoline by about 45 cents, from the current $4.16 to around $3.70, but this reduction will take at least two weeks to fully reflect at gas stations. Whether oil prices can fall further afterward depends on the speed of recovery of Persian Gulf exports. 3. Airfare prices will fall even more slowly. Aviation fuel prices have nearly doubled since the start of the war, with Delta Air Lines CEO calling the increase "unprecedented." JD Power's travel business manager stated that prices are stubborn, and airline pricing doesn't react as quickly as gas stations; it's too early to judge whether a ceasefire will affect summer airfares. 4. Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, a full restoration of shipping lanes and maritime traffic will take at least several weeks, and likely more than a month. Diesel and jet fuel prices will remain high "for some time." Furthermore, gasoline costs are higher during seasonal peaks and summer-blended gasoline, and experts predict that gasoline prices will be unlikely to return to pre-war levels of $2.98 per gallon this year.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

 4758.01

38.83

(0.82%)

XAG

 74.415

0.361

(0.49%)

CONC

 102.18

7.77

(8.23%)

OILC

 98.98

2.82

(2.94%)

USD

 98.982

-0.048

(-0.05%)

EURUSD

 1.1676

0.0014

(0.12%)

GBPUSD

 1.3411

0.0019

(0.14%)

USDCNH

 6.8377

0.0057

(0.08%)
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