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2026-07-18 Saturday

2026-07-19

09:08:13

[CBOT Grain Positions Reverse Sharply, Speculative Funds Focus on Reducing Wheat and Corn Shorts] ⑴ CFTC data shows that in the week ending July 14, non-commercial net short positions in wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade decreased significantly by approximately 30,752 contracts to 38,851 contracts, and net short positions in corn decreased by approximately 29,494 contracts to 37,916 contracts, with both commodities experiencing large-scale short covering. ⑵ In the soybean market, non-commercial net long positions increased by approximately 14,003 contracts to 23,687 contracts, continuing the previous bullish bias, indicating that speculative funds' bullish sentiment towards oilseeds remains relatively stable. ⑶ By managed fund, net long positions in corn managed funds increased by approximately 30,733 contracts to 43,391 contracts, directly reversing from short to long; net short positions in wheat managed funds decreased by approximately 25,527 contracts, significantly easing short-selling pressure; and net long positions in soybean oil managed funds increased significantly by approximately 23,800 contracts to over 113,000 contracts, becoming the commodity with the most significant changes in positions among grains and oilseeds. (4) From a trading perspective, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to rising energy prices, indirectly boosting valuation expectations for biofuel feedstocks. This, coupled with disruptions to Black Sea grain exports and North American weather concerns, has prompted a concentrated liquidation of previously accumulated short positions. If new marginal changes occur in the geopolitical situation or crop weather conditions, the current short-covering rally could evolve further.

09:08:12

[CFTC Positions: WTI Crude Oil Net Long Positions Increase Slightly, Geopolitical Risk Premium Attracts Speculative Funds] ⑴ Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that in the week ending July 14, speculative funds increased their combined net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options in New York and London by approximately 4,400 contracts to 70,059 contracts, marking the second consecutive week of increases. ⑵ Looking at individual contracts, managed funds' net long positions in WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by approximately 11,700 contracts, while net long positions in ICE WTI contracts decreased by approximately 7,300 contracts, indicating some rebalancing in both markets. ⑶ From a trading psychology perspective, the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict pushed Brent crude oil prices up by more than 10% during the week. Speculative funds chose to moderately increase their long exposure against the backdrop of heightened supply risks, but the increase was relatively restrained, indicating a cautious assessment of the sustainability of the geopolitical premium. (4) During the same period, net long positions in RBOB gasoline decreased slightly by about 2,600 contracts, while net long positions in heating oil increased by about 6,100 contracts. This divergence in refined oil product positions suggests a disagreement in market expectations regarding refining margins and end-user demand prospects. If the geopolitical situation deteriorates further, short covering could drive net long positions to continue expanding.

08:54:12

[Crude Oil Freight Rates Fluctuate at High Levels, Geopolitical Premiums Continue to Support the VLCC Market] ⑴ Data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange shows that freight rates in China's imported VLCC shipping market fluctuated at high levels this week. The CTFI composite index was 4360.85 points, a slight increase of about 0.7% compared to the previous period, but still at a relatively high level in recent years. ⑵ The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with the US launching a new round of airstrikes on military facilities in Iran, while Tehran retaliated against targets in the Persian Gulf region. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, and the two major energy choke points face the risk of simultaneous paralysis, with geopolitical premiums continuing to inject into the oil shipping market. ⑶ On the fundamental side, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by about 1.69 million barrels to 410 million barrels last week, while exports increased by nearly 460,000 barrels per day. The four-week average supply of crude oil products increased slightly by about 0.3% year-on-year, with both supply and demand supporting freight rates. (4) From a market psychology perspective, there are no signs of the situation in the Middle East easing up, and shipowners are highly risk-averse on the Persian Gulf route. If a new blockade occurs in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it will force more ships to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, further lengthening the effective shipping distance and pushing up VLCC charter rates.

2026-07-17 Friday

22:02:13

Preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July

Previous : 49.50 Forecast : 51

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 54.40

Previous

21:30:15

US June Industrial Production Annual Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : 1.67% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.14%

Previous

21:16:17

US manufacturing output in June (month-on-month)

Previous : 0% Forecast : 0.10%

Published Value 0%

Previous

21:16:16

US capacity utilization rate in June

Previous : 76.20% Forecast : 76.20%

Published Value 76.10%

Previous

21:16:15

US industrial production in June (month-on-month)

Previous : 0.10% Forecast : 0.20%

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 0.10%

Previous

20:33:13

US building permits (monthly rate) - preliminary reading for June

Previous : -0.90% Forecast : -

Published Value -3%

Previous

20:32:20

US June Building Permits (Annualized Total, in Thousands)

Previous : 141 Forecast : 140

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 136.70

Previous

20:32:15

US June Housing Starts Annualized Monthly Rate

Previous : -15.40% Forecast : 11.50%

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 19%

Previous

20:32:14

US Housing Starts in June (Annualized Rate, in Thousands)

Previous : 117.70 Forecast : 131

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 142.70

Previous

20:32:12

US June Import Price Index (MoM)

Previous : 1.90% Forecast : -0.70%

US Dollar
Gold, Silver, Oil

Published Value 0.30%

Previous

20:08:13

[Global Central Bank Super Week Approaching: ECB Holds Rates Steady, US-Iran Conflict Continues to Disrupt Markets] ⑴ The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates steady at 2.25% at its policy meeting next Thursday. Despite oil prices rising by about 20% since July, the unexpected slowdown in Eurozone inflation in June has led the market to bet on a probability of no change exceeding 80%. ⑵ The market has already priced in further tightening of over 40 basis points before the end of the year. The ECB statement and President Lagarde's press conference will be key windows guiding expectations. The preliminary July consumer confidence and PMI data released on the same day will also provide clues about the economic climate. ⑶ US data is relatively light, with only weekly initial jobless claims and the preliminary July S&P PMI worth noting. Federal Reserve officials have entered a pre-meeting quiet period, and the market will mainly rely on data to interpret events before the FOMC decision at the end of July. ⑷ The UK will welcome its new Prime Minister next Monday. Employment and inflation data will dominate the pound's trading logic. These indicators are crucial to the Bank of England's interest rate path, and retail sales and the preliminary PMI will also verify economic resilience. (5) Japan will be closed next Monday, and the week's core trade, CPI, and PMI data will test the struggle between domestic demand and imported inflation. Commodity currency countries will see a flurry of data releases, including New Zealand's CPI, Australian employment, and Canadian retail sales inflation, putting central bank policy expectations under multiple scrutiny.

Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4016.36

40.10

(1.01%)

XAG

55.884

0.395

(0.71%)

CONC

81.77

3.49

(4.46%)

OILC

88.08

3.22

(3.80%)

USD

100.759

0.039

(0.04%)

EURUSD

1.1438

-0.0004

(-0.03%)

GBPUSD

1.3455

-0.0022

(-0.17%)

USDCNH

6.7769

0.0044

(0.06%)