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2026-09-19 Saturday

2026-09-19

08:31:38

[Global Bond Markets Face Another Sell-Off, Market Focuses on Potential Escalation of Tightening Cycle] ⑴ Global government bond yields rose again on Friday, with a renewed sell-off. ⑵ This week, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, but inflation concerns remain high, and funds are focusing on the possibility of a new escalation of the global tightening cycle. ⑶ Following the European Central Bank's rate hike, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signaled another rate hike this year, reassuring the market of its determination to combat inflation. ⑷ However, the underlying factors pushing up bond yields have not disappeared, including the risk of persistently high oil prices, high levels of government debt, and competition for capital from AI-related companies. ⑸ A senior market analyst stated that while the Federal Reserve has indeed strengthened its credibility in combating inflation, massive government bond issuance, rising term premiums, and intensified competition for private sector capital mean that the support for long-term yields is difficult to resolve solely through monetary policy. ⑹ From a market sentiment perspective, short-term yields are dominated by policy paths, while long-term yields reflect more the pressure from fiscal supply and term premiums; changes in the yield curve warrant attention. (7) Going forward, attention should be paid to oil price trends, statements from major central bank officials, and the pace of government bond issuance, as these three factors will jointly determine whether the pressure on the bond market can be alleviated. (8) Overall, the combination of tightening expectations and structural supply factors means that the global bond market will still face upward pressure in the short term.

08:30:08

[Saudi Key Oil Pipeline Attacked and Shut Down, Market Repricing Middle East Supply Risks] ⑴ The east-west Petroline pipeline in Saudi Arabia has been shut down for repairs due to Houthi drone attacks on multiple pumping stations. This pipeline was previously a key backup route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. ⑵ Oil industry insiders point out that the attack impacted the market's backup plan, with a direct effect that clearly supports oil prices. ⑶ The pipeline currently transports millions of barrels per day, and the shutdown is estimated to affect up to 3.6 million barrels per day in supply. ⑷ This does not mean all these barrels have disappeared; Saudi Arabia can try to divert some production, but with significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, alternative solutions are limited. ⑸ Reports of Saudi Arabia canceling cargo deliveries have already materialized the risk, moving it from theoretical to real, thus increasing supply premiums. ⑹ Damaged pipelines have fixed infrastructure such as pumping stations, valves, and power facilities; cheap drones and precision missiles only need to disable one or two key nodes. ⑺ Even if repaired, the possibility of further attacks cannot be ruled out, and the market may continue to price in Middle East infrastructure risks. (8) Some economists believe that repairs will be a priority, but the severe damage and lengthy process are particularly disadvantageous given the current tight global supply. (9) They do not believe this will weaken the importance of Saudi Arabia or OPEC in the long term; the pipeline attack is just one factor in the complex energy market. (10) Given the ongoing challenges facing the Hormuz, the importance of the pipeline may actually increase in the future. (11) Future projects may require redundant design, reinforced pumping stations, multi-path operation, sufficient reserves, and stronger air defense capabilities, leading to increased capital expenditures. (12) For OPEC+, spare capacity is only meaningful when crude oil actually reaches the market, limiting its ability to stabilize prices. (13) The progress of pipeline repairs, the effectiveness of Saudi export diversions, and changes in refined product crack spreads and freight insurance costs need to be monitored. (14) Overall, supply disruption risks and infrastructure vulnerability are jointly driving up risk premiums in the energy market.

07:25:45

[Guatemalan Freight Industry Warns of High Fuel Prices' Impact on Food Prices] ⑴ Several freight associations held a press conference on Friday to express their stance on high fuel costs, stating that the food industry is the most severely affected. ⑵ They pointed out that diesel prices have been rising continuously since December 2025, although they briefly fell during the subsidy period. ⑶ Diesel prices at gas stations have exceeded 49 quechars, and may be even higher outside the capital. ⑷ Rising operating costs are being passed on to consumers, with food being the most affected. ⑸ The associations stated that high fuel prices have triggered a freight crisis, forcing businesses to seek funding to fulfill business commitments and purchase necessary vehicle supplies. ⑹ Diesel price increases exceed the ability of transport companies to absorb costs under existing commercial contracts, compressing the liquidity needed to maintain operations and ensure national supply. ⑺ They warned that diesel prices are rising faster than freight rates, and this imbalance harms transporters' interests, drives up business costs, and ultimately affects households and consumers. ⑻ According to data from the National Institute of Statistics, food and transportation saw the largest monthly price increases in August 2026. (9) Technical estimates by the industry in accordance with Decree No. 21-2026 show that 2.5 billion qchar could last for about 99.3 days if used only for diesel, but the coverage period would be significantly shortened if it included both regular and premium gasoline.

07:25:28

[US Grain Barge Freight Rates Rise, Harvest Season Demand Supports Near-Month Prices] ⑴ US barge industry data shows that for the week ending September 13, freight rates on major routes such as the St. Louis 12-foot and Illinois River were quoted at $850 to $900 (based on benchmark tariffs). ⑵ Prices rose to $900 to $950 in the week ending September 20, and further to $950 to $1000 in the week ending September 27, showing a stepped upward trend for near-month freight rates. ⑶ Prices remained high at $950 to $1000 in the first half of October, then fell back to $800 to $850 in the second half, and further decreased to $675 to $725 in November. ⑷ Prices fell to $625 to $675 in December, and continued to decline in a stepped manner from January to March and April to July of the following year, reaching a low of $500 to $550. (5) The Memphis-Cairo segment followed a similar trend, rising to 975-1025 in late September before declining month by month, reaching a low of 400-450 from April to July of the following year. (6) The Ohio River Jeffersonville-Cincinnati segment quoted 925-975 in late September, then declined month by month, falling to 500-550 from April to July of the following year. (7) Upstream routes such as St. Paul to Savage, McGregor, and Davenport also showed a pattern of near-term strength and far-term weakness. (8) In some months, such as December, no quotes were recorded for the St. Paul to Savage route, indicating weak forward trading. (9) From a market sentiment perspective, the concentrated release of grain shipping demand during the autumn harvest season is the main factor driving up near-month freight rates. (10) With the slowdown in the pace of new crop market entry and changes in river transport conditions, forward quotes are gradually returning to the normal range. (11) Going forward, attention should be paid to the impact of harvest progress, export loading pace, and water levels on barge turnover efficiency. 12 Overall, near-month freight rates are supported by seasonal demand, while long-term rates reflect expectations of ample supply and declining demand.

07:23:47

[Argentine Oil Pipeline Project Arrives at a Time of High Oil Prices] ⑴ For years, the bottleneck in Huacamuelta has been not underground but on the surface; crude oil production exists, but there is a lack of sufficient pipelines for transportation. ⑵ Companies had to transport exported crude oil from Neuquén to Buenos Aires by truck, costing nearly $10 per barrel, while pipeline transportation costs only about $1.50. ⑶ This limitation is now a thing of the past. Techint Engineering & Construction announced the completion of the final conventional weld on the Duplica North Pipeline, a 207-kilometer-long pipeline that will enhance the export capacity of the northern Neuquén Basin. The main operator, Oldelval, plans to partially commence operations by the end of the year. ⑷ Four producers have funded 80% of the project, including Pluspetrol, Chevron, Tecpetrol, and a Neuquén provincial company, with Oldelval covering the remaining 20%. The pipeline aims to alleviate production pressure in the northern blocks that are now undergoing large-scale development. (5) This project is not isolated. Argentina's July production hit a record high of 916,200 barrels per day, while domestic consumption was approximately 590,000 barrels per day, with the remainder exported. This means that each new pipeline will shorten the time it takes for crude oil to enter the international market. (6) The timing is favorable. The Middle East conflict has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel for nearly 10 days, increasing export revenue per barrel. The government expects an energy trade surplus of over $11 billion this year. (7) The Duplica Northern Pipeline, with an investment of $380 million, connects the Puesto Hernandez pumping station in Neuquén with the Allen station in Rio Negro. (8) The pipeline has a diameter of 26 inches. The first phase will transport 50,000 barrels per day by the end of the year, increasing to 220,000 barrels per day by the first quarter of 2027. (9) This milestone marks the completion of the most arduous construction phase. The team completed approximately 9,840 conventional line welds and 7,410 twin-pipe welds, including over 150 special crossings. At its peak, 850 people were working simultaneously. (10) System expansion continues. Oldelval has already put into operation the Duplica line, parallel to the existing pipeline, with an investment of $1.4 billion, increasing its transport capacity from 225,000 barrels per day to 540,000 barrels per day. (11) Another major project is the Wacamuelta South Pipeline Project, an investment of $3 billion, 437 kilometers long, connecting Allen and Punta Colorado ports, capable of accommodating very large crude carriers (VLCCs). It is scheduled to begin production in November, with the first exports expected in late January or early February next year. By the second half of 2027, its daily transport capacity will reach 550,000 barrels, and is expected to expand to 700,000 barrels per day. (12) The industry predicts that by 2030, Wacamuelta's daily production will reach 1.5 million barrels, of which approximately 1 million barrels will be exported. Based on an average price of $60 per barrel, this would generate at least $21.6 billion in annual revenue.

06:54:57

[Midterm Elections Approaching: Morgan Stanley Assesses Congressional Landscape and Market Variables] ⑴ With the Federal Reserve's September meeting concluded, strategists are turning their attention to the November US midterm elections. ⑵ Morgan Stanley's Gerald G. Graham noted in a report that Republicans currently hold 220 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats hold 215, their narrowest majority since 1930. ⑶ This means that Democrats only need to gain 3 seats to seize control, while Republicans cannot afford to lose more than 2. ⑷ In polls asking voters which party they would currently vote for, the Democratic lead has widened to 8.1 percentage points, and the president's approval rating hovers around 40%. ⑸ The consumer confidence index is 47.8, well below the historical average of 85 for election years, and regular gasoline prices have risen 29.5% since August 2025. ⑹ 47% of registered voters said the cost of living is the most important factor influencing their vote, up from 39% in January. (7) Considering the aforementioned concerns, the concentration of undecided districts in Republican-controlled seats, and the historical average loss of 30 seats in the House of Representatives by the incumbent president's party, Glaser believes the Republicans face a difficult election. (8) However, the institution's baseline scenario forecast indicates that although the risk of the Republicans losing control of the House is substantial, they should be able to retain control of the Senate. (9) The Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to obtain an absolute majority in the Senate. As of September 16, the forecast market indicated an 86% to 88% probability of the Democrats controlling the House and only a 54% to 59% probability in the Senate. (10) Historically, the long-term performance of equity markets differs between a divided Congress and a unified Congress, but past statistics do not constitute guidance for future trends. (11) Overall, the election landscape and expectations of policy divergence will be important variables for market sentiment in the coming months.

06:54:08

[Focus: French bonds under pressure, yen fluctuates wildly, US manufacturing unexpectedly weakens] ⑴ Trump says he will ban some major news outlets from entering the White House. ⑵ US manufacturing output unexpectedly fell 0.3% month-on-month in August, compared to an estimated 0.3% increase; rising oil prices and interest rates may have outweighed some of the support from AI construction. ⑶ Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Bowman says a vote will be held in the coming weeks on the final version of stress test reforms for large banks. ⑷ Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed support for a rate hike this week, believing that inflation is trending above the 2% target and is not solely driven by energy costs. ⑸ ECB President Lagarde says interest rates will not move in tandem with energy prices, cooling expectations of aggressive rate hikes. ⑹ Eurozone finance ministers are concerned but not anxious about rising bond yields, emphasizing the need to adhere to the approved fiscal path. ⑺ The yield on French 10-year bonds rose 13 basis points to 4.573%, and the Franco-German interest rate spread reached a full percentage point for the first time since July 2012. (8) Nikkei reported that a currency inquiry by Japanese authorities pushed the yen sharply higher, with the dollar/yen exchange rate briefly touching a two-week high of 158.05. (9) Putin's special envoy is reportedly planning to meet with the leadership of Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to discuss resuming gas supplies to Germany, possibly as early as March. (10) Saudi Aramco has informed at least two European refining clients that they will not receive crude oil next month due to an attack on a key pipeline. (11) US stocks traded quietly on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.17% and the Nasdaq rising 0.40%, led by the technology sector; oil prices fell, with Brent crude settling at $104.87 per barrel.

06:47:05

[US Treasury Yields Rise Across the Board, 2-Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since July 2024] ⑴ US Treasury yields rose on Friday, with the 2-year yield climbing to its highest level since July 2024. ⑵ This followed the Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years this week, and investors are assessing the subsequent path of interest rates. ⑶ As inflation concerns intensify, the market is closely watching the prospects for a new round of global interest rate hikes. ⑷ The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to its highest level in 31 years on Friday, with the governor stating that it has entered a new phase of preventing inflation from exceeding its target. ⑸ The Federal Reserve raised rates on Wednesday and hinted at further tightening in the coming months, with the chairman making hawkish comments. ⑹ Some strategists say that the 2-year yield will fluctuate in tandem with rate hike expectations, and the market is currently more inclined to price in more rate hikes than rule them out. ⑺ Futures data shows that traders expect a greater than 55% probability of another rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in October, up from 53% on Thursday evening. (8) The spread between 2-year and 10-year yields was last at approximately 25.5 basis points, having touched 23.8 basis points intraday, the flattest since June 25. (9) The short end rose faster than the long end, partly due to rising expectations of interest rate hikes, while the Fed's intention to control inflation limited the rise in the long end. (10) Some believe that, for long-term bonds, this meeting somewhat calmed market anxieties. (11) Friday's data showed that US manufacturing output unexpectedly declined in August after seven consecutive months of growth, but yields mostly maintained their gains. (12) The surge in oil prices related to the US-Israel conflict over Iran was one source of inflation concerns, although oil prices retreated somewhat after China urged Iran to restrain Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. (13) The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 5%, up 5.3 basis points, after touching a new high since 2007 at 5.041% on Tuesday. 14. The 2-year yield rose 5.3 basis points to 4.743%, after previously reaching 4.7475%; the 30-year yield rose 3.6 basis points to 5.332%.

2026-09-18 Friday

21:24:59

US August Industrial Production Annual Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Previous : 1.08% Forecast : -

Published Value 1.42%

Previous

21:15:09

US industrial production month-on-month in August

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.30%

Gold, Silver, Oil
US Dollar

Published Value 0%

Previous

21:15:09

US capacity utilization rate in August

Previous : 76.30% Forecast : 76.40%

Published Value 76.30%

Previous

21:15:08

US manufacturing output in August (month-on-month)

Previous : 0.20% Forecast : 0.30%

Published Value -0.30%

Previous

20:50:53

[Diesel Prices Hit Record High Amid Refinery Shutdowns and Peak Demand in the US Midwest] ⑴ ExxonMobil's large Midwestern diesel refinery, Joliet, has completely shut down. The plant has a daily processing capacity of approximately 275,000 barrels. ⑵ The plant produces approximately 11 million gallons of gasoline and diesel daily, and its operations were halted due to a complete power outage. ⑶ Energy agencies had initially expected normal production to resume by the end of the week, but it has not yet resumed operations, with the shutdown lasting far longer than anticipated. ⑷ US diesel prices rose to a new record high of $6.45 per gallon today, representing a year-to-date increase of nearly 90%. ⑸ BP's Whiting refinery in Indiana is also partially shut down, coinciding with the peak diesel demand season in the US. ⑹ Diesel prices rose approximately 45 cents in the seven days following the breach of $6, and at this rate, they may break $7 by October. ⑺ The current situation coincides with the autumn harvest and the approaching winter, with Joliet shutting down, Whiting reducing production, and Russian diesel exports suspended. (8) Saudi Aramco's tender for diesel in Europe and the US's consideration of suspending exports have exacerbated supply shortages. (9) From a market sentiment perspective, the bottleneck in middle distillate supply has become a key variable driving up inflation and transportation costs. (10) Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of refinery resumption, changes in export policies, and whether diesel crack spreads can remain high.

20:36:58

[Rumors of Russian Gas's Return to Germany Emerge, Intertwined with Geopolitical and Political Games] ⑴ Sources indicate that the Russian President's chief economic envoy and the leadership of Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) have begun preparations for a meeting next year to discuss resuming gas supplies to Germany. ⑵ The talks could take place as early as March next year, provided that Russia and Ukraine first reach a peace framework agreement. ⑶ Participants include the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund and close advisor to Putin, Dmitriev, as well as AfD co-chairs Weidel and Churupala. ⑷ Organizers hope this will facilitate contact between the AfD, Russia, and the United States. ⑸ Possible locations include Israel, the UAE, or India. ⑹ This move highlights the close relationship between Moscow and the AfD, currently the most popular political party in Germany based on voter support. ⑺ Before Western sanctions in 2022, Russia supplied more than half of Germany's gas imports. ⑻ From a market sentiment perspective, any expectation of Russian gas's return could influence European gas prices and refinery feedstock cost expectations. (9) However, whether the talks can be finalized depends on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace framework, and the short-term substantive impact is limited. (10) The reaction of mainstream German political parties and whether the EU's stance on sanctions will soften need to be monitored. (11) Overall, this seems more like a political signal than an immediate supply-side shift.

20:21:38

[European Inland Barge Freight Rates Remain Stable, Regional Price Differences Reflect Logistics Landscape] ⑴ Latest European inland barge freight rate data shows that dry bulk freight rates from Rotterdam to various German ports remained generally stable on September 18th. ⑵ Based on 1200-ton barges, the freight rate from Rotterdam to Duisburg was around €13/ton, at a low level in the region. ⑶ The price from Rotterdam to Cologne was around €15/ton, while to Frankfurt, Mainz, and other destinations it was around €18-20/ton. ⑷ Prices to southern inland nodes such as Basel, Strasbourg, and Würzburg were relatively high, around €25-28/ton. ⑸ Freight rates from German ports to Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Ghent, and other areas were mostly concentrated between €21-29/ton. ⑹ The price difference for routes departing from the east coast of the UK and German Baltic ports was more pronounced, with prices to some destinations in Southern Europe rising significantly. (7) Overall, freight rate gradients roughly reflect the matching degree between voyage distance, waterway conditions, and return cargo, with more intense competition at short-haul and mainline nodes. (8) Market sentiment is neutral, with participants paying more attention to the impact of water level changes, fuel costs, and the pace of industrial goods shipments on subsequent quotations. (9) If inland waterway levels remain normal, barge freight rates may continue to consolidate within a narrow range in the short term, with limited regional arbitrage opportunities. (10) Going forward, attention should be paid to German industrial activity and port congestion, as these will directly affect barge turnaround efficiency and bargaining power.

19:21:41

[Oil Market Enters a "Shrug" Moment, Uncertainty Dominates Trading and Mergers] ⑴ One institutional researcher bluntly stated in a report that for the first time since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict, there is no baseline view, and it is unclear how to model the endgame. Although the wording is unusually straightforward, this sentiment is shared to varying degrees by market participants. ⑵ Market observers have accepted the reality that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the volume of oil passing through will remain chaotic in the coming months, and continued disruption to Middle Eastern crude oil will continue to erode the market's buffer capacity. ⑶ The institution initially assumed that the White House would not cross certain economic red lines, including oil prices around $100, gasoline prices approaching $5 per gallon, and the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 5%. However, six months later, many red lines have been crossed, and the exit strategy is even more unclear. ⑷ However, the institution believes that the decline in oil demand has played a greater role than expected in alleviating supply pressure, slowing the depletion of oil inventories in various countries. Therefore, concerns about near-depletion of inventories are premature, and there is still sufficient buffer to keep prices relatively under control. ⑸ Even so, soaring energy costs and shortages continue to cause pain, anger, and turmoil in many countries around the world. (6) Uncertainty also impacts transaction activity. High and volatile prices are disrupting mergers and acquisitions in the exploration and production sectors. Conflict is both a headwind and a tailwind; high prices are prompting more companies, including US shale producers, to test the market. (7) The global M&A market opportunity value has ballooned to approximately $137 billion, but price volatility is widening valuation expectation gaps, making deals more difficult to complete. More flexible agreement structures and stronger safeguards are expected to emerge to mitigate commodity price and delivery risks. (8) Some analysts have concluded that oil price volatility has created a deeper collection of opportunities, but it has also made deals more difficult to execute.

18:01:35

[Record-High US Diesel Prices Pressure Farmers, Potentially Leading to Rising Food Prices] ⑴ US farmers are facing record diesel prices during the harvest season, further squeezing profit margins. Rising grocery prices ahead of the November midterm elections seem inevitable. ⑵ Global fuel supplies have tightened due to the US-Israel war against Iran and Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries. The average US diesel price hit a new high this week at approximately $6.29 per gallon, up about 68% from a year ago. ⑶ Economists at Michigan State University stated that rising diesel prices are pushing up costs across the food supply chain, as most food is transported by truck, which uses diesel. ⑷ The latest Consumer Price Index shows that consumer food prices rose about 2.7% year-over-year in August. ⑸ Farmers can use tax-free off-road diesel, but even with discounts, many farmers are still paying significantly higher fuel costs than last year. ⑹ A vegetable grower in California stated that fuel costs have risen by about 40%, from about $5 to about $7 per gallon. To save money, he has restarted a 1950s gasoline tractor and retired a diesel pickup truck. (7) Data from Purdue University economists shows that fuel costs for corn planting have increased by about $11 per acre compared to last year, and for soybeans by about $7 per acre. (8) Corn, soybean, and wheat futures have risen sharply since mid-August, reaching multi-year highs in early September, but farmer profit margins remain below historical averages. Some economists warn that high oil prices could push up seed and fertilizer costs next year. (9) A hay farmer in Washington state said that farmers have tightened their belts and have little room to absorb rising fuel prices; any increase at present means new debt for farms. (10) A Republican senator from Kansas wrote to the Secretary of Agriculture requesting temporary relief for farmers. The Department of Agriculture stated that it is working tirelessly to address the issue and will release more information in the coming weeks. (11) Economists point out that although fuel accounts for only a small portion of food costs, consumers may still see price increases as the supply chain absorbs higher fuel costs. The most vulnerable are agricultural products requiring refrigerated transport, dairy products, and meat. 12. Data shows that refrigerated trailer rates for apples and pears in Yakima Valley, Washington, have hit a four-year high. Agricultural transportation costs in California have increased by about 40% to 120% compared to last year, and diesel prices in some cities have exceeded $8 per gallon. Industry insiders expect that diesel-driven trucking companies will go bankrupt.

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