2026-11-06 Friday
2026-11-06
11:34:55
[Spot Gold: Cautious Short Selling on Rallies, Cautious Long Selling on Dips] 1. Analysis: Overnight, US stocks plummeted, and Asian stocks followed suit. Some investors sold gold to meet margin requirements, dragging down gold prices. Furthermore, the market expects a slight increase in non-farm payrolls. However, market expectations that the situation in Iran may ease after the US midterm elections, coupled with this week's sharp drop in oil prices and a cooling of expectations for a December Fed rate hike, could provide support for gold prices. 2. Focus: Non-farm payroll report, Fed officials' speeches, and news related to the Middle East situation. 3. Resistance: 4072; 4090; 4106; 4. Support: 4040; 4029; 4008
11:04:09
RMB SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate): Latest data as of November 6, 2026. Rates rose over 3 periods and remained unchanged over 5 periods. The overnight SHIBOR was 1.283%, up 2 basis points. The largest change was in the 1-week RMB SHIBOR rate, which rose 2.3 basis points. (For details on SHIBOR and changes over the past ten working days, please refer to the chart created by FX678). Other periods show: 1-week SHIBOR at 1.346%, up 2.3 basis points; 2-week SHIBOR at 1.345%, up 0.6 basis points; 1-month SHIBOR at 1.377%, unchanged; 3-month SHIBOR at 1.398%, unchanged; 6-month SHIBOR at 1.418%, unchanged; 9-month SHIBOR at 1.428%, unchanged; 1-year SHIBOR at 1.437%, unchanged.
11:02:55
[Hot News Recap: Russian Refineries Attacked Again, Increased Uncertainty in Diesel Exports to the US] 1. Ukraine's renewed attack on Russian refineries has added further uncertainty to Moscow's diesel supply arrangements to the international market while it grapples with domestic fuel shortages. Analysis suggests that the Ryazan refinery, one of Russia's largest, was likely damaged in a large-scale drone attack targeting the city's industrial zone. If true, this would be the second Russian refinery attacked this week, following the Yaroslavl refinery, breaking the previous suspension of attacks. 2. Regarding shipping data, Kpler and the London Stock Exchange Group data show that at least six Russian diesel cargo ships have issued transatlantic voyage plans; however, two previous shipments originally destined for the US Atlantic coast appear to have changed course. No Russian diesel cargo has arrived in the US since the relevant export agreements were reached. 3. Kpler analyst Matt Smith stated that the first monitored Russian cargo ship bound for the US is expected to arrive in New York this weekend, but its ability to unload smoothly remains uncertain due to regulatory, legislative, and sanctions concerns. 4. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that these were commercial shipments and details could not be disclosed, adding that "all diesel will find buyers." Kremlin envoy Dmitriev stated that Russian diesel tankers bound for the United States were still on their original routes. Peskov also stated that the change in the diesel tankers' course was unrelated to the results of the US midterm elections.
10:45:42
[National Energy Administration: Expanding the Oil and Gas Cooperation Network During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Ge Ju, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, stated that the National Energy Administration will further coordinate domestic supply and diversified imports to strengthen oil and gas security. On the one hand, it will focus on building domestic supply capacity. It will deepen the implementation of the ten-year action plan for oil and gas exploration and development, increase investment and workload, and solidify the resource base. On the other hand, it will focus on ensuring diversified imports. Currently, it has established oil and gas trade cooperation with nearly 50 countries worldwide, with import sources covering major oil and gas exporting countries globally, ensuring stable and reliable international oil and gas cooperation. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will further expand the oil and gas cooperation network, strengthen cooperation with major overseas oil and gas producing regions, and enhance the diversification of sources and channels. Simultaneously, it will consolidate and expand strategic land-based import channels and safeguard the security of maritime channels to ensure that oil and gas can be purchased and transported back. (National Energy Administration)
10:17:30
[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Job Market Stabilizing, Wage Growth Still Lagging Inflation] 1. The US labor market has been largely stable over the past six months, and the October non-farm payrolls report is not expected to break this trend. JOLTS job openings, weekly initial jobless claims, and the ISM survey all point to a state of "low hiring, low layoffs." Economists' consensus expects 62,000 new jobs in October, higher than the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary estimate of 29,000 for September; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. 2. Dan North, chief economist at Allianz Trade North America, said that the consensus forecast is still not encouraging enough, but the current unemployment rate is at a historical low, and fewer new jobs may be sufficient. He pointed out that the labor force participation rate may be more telling than the unemployment rate; the participation rate rose slightly to 61.8% in September from 61.6% in August, but is still lower than the 62.5% projected for September 2025. 3. The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate model estimates that the October unemployment rate may have slightly decreased to 4.14% from 4.18% in September, rounded to 4.1%. The model shows that the layoff rate remains low at 2.01%, compared to 2.03% previously; the hiring rate has improved slightly to 46.18%, compared to 45.48% previously. 4. Wage growth is expected to continue to lag behind inflation. Market consensus expects average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October, higher than September's 0.1%; and 2.9% year-over-year, lower than September's 3.0%. In contrast, the overall PCE inflation rate was 3.6% in September. The gap between inflation and wage growth is eroding consumer purchasing power. 5. North points out that inflation has become "very sticky, with little change over the past few months." Given the stable labor market, the Fed will continue to monitor inflation. In this rate hike cycle, the Fed only raised rates once in September; he stated that such a single rate hike by the Fed is very rare. 6. Salem Abraham, president of Abraham Trading Company, believes that raising interest rates cannot solve current inflation because sticky inflation is more related to energy costs than labor costs; even if the Fed triples interest rates, it cannot prevent wars or lower energy prices. 7. North believes that inflation is spreading to other areas, with energy prices spilling over into core inflation, and tariff shifting also having an impact. This is precisely the problem the Fed needs to address through interest rate hikes. However, since last Saturday, crude oil prices have fallen about 14% from their recent high of $104.99 per barrel, with Brent crude trading around $99.67 per barrel in Asian trading on Friday. Coupled with declining US Treasury yields and weakness in technology stocks, traders have lowered their probability of a December rate hike from 82.7% on Wednesday to 68%.
10:02:57
[Nomura expects October non-farm payrolls to rebound to 80,000, supporting the Fed's continued rate hike in December] (1) Nomura expects October's non-farm payrolls to rebound to 80,000 from 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate may fall slightly to 4.1%. (2) Nomura believes that last month's rise in the unemployment rate appears to be driven by unstable participation dynamics; at the same time, fundamentals continue to improve, layoffs remain low, and labor demand shows signs of stabilizing. (3) Nomura expects average hourly earnings to rebound to 0.3% month-on-month; the low reading in September appears to be below the underlying wage trend, and there is also a positive calendar effect in October. (4) Nomura says the labor market has shown resilience, but there are no signs of overheating yet. (5) Nomura expects results consistent with its forecasts to allow the Fed to continue raising interest rates in December.
09:28:50
[Non-farm payrolls report may trigger Fed rate hike repricing] (1) AAStocks reports that the October non-farm payrolls report released on Friday may trigger the market to repric the Fed's rate hike path; the futures market shows that the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting is close to 80%, and its impact may continue until the November employment report is released in early December. (2) If the employment data is strong, the Fed can focus more on controlling inflation, and the market may need to re-evaluate the currently expected two additional rate hikes. (3) Analysts predict that non-farm payrolls will increase by 65,000 in October (compared to 29,000 in September), the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%; wages will rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year; and weekly working hours will remain at 34.4 hours. The total pay index has stabilized since bottoming out in December 2025, indicating that the slowdown in the labor market and wages has stabilized. (4) Although wages and new jobs have slowed, they are still in line with the 4% to 5% annual growth before the pandemic; the problem is that high inflation is weakening real wages, and the Fed needs to focus more on its inflation mission. (5) If the unemployment rate does not rise sharply and the number of new jobs does not fall unexpectedly, the market's view on the policy path is expected to remain unchanged; if the data far exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate falls significantly, it may increase the probability of a rate hike in December and lead to earlier or more rate hikes. (6) The market currently expects one rate hike in December, another in 2027, and the rate hike cycle to end in 2027; if the October and November reports are both strong, the market will worry that there will be more than two rate hikes.
09:25:07
[US October Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Job Market Broadly Stable, Wage Growth Still Lagging Inflation] 1. The US labor market has remained broadly stable over the past six months, and the October non-farm payrolls report is not expected to change this. JOLTS job openings, weekly initial jobless claims, and the ISM survey all point to a market characterized by "low hiring and low layoffs." Dan North, chief economist at Allianz Trade North America, stated that consensus expectations remain unencouraging. 2. Economists' consensus expects the US to add 62,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. The Chicago Fed's real-time unemployment rate model estimates that the October unemployment rate may have slightly decreased to 4.14% from 4.18% in September, rounded to 4.1%; the model shows the layoff rate remains low at 2.01%, compared to 2.03% previously; the hiring rate has improved slightly to 46.18%, compared to 45.48% previously. 3. Regarding wages, average hourly earnings in October are projected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, higher than September's 0.1%; the year-on-year growth rate is projected at 2.9%, lower than September's 3.0%. In contrast, the overall PCE inflation rate in September was 3.6%. The gap between inflation and wage growth is eroding consumer purchasing power as income growth lags behind price increases.
09:13:57
Goldman Sachs Lowers Gold Price Forecasts for 2026 and 2027, Citing Fed Hawkish Stance Suppressing Investment Demand. 1. Goldman Sachs on Thursday lowered its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 per ounce from $4,650, and its year-end 2027 forecast to $4,800 per ounce from $5,400. The bank stated that the main reason for the downward revision was the more hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve in recent months. 2. Goldman Sachs stated that global central bank buying continues to provide strong structural support for gold prices, but rising interest rates have weakened investor holdings, resulting in a relatively moderate net increase in gold prices. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in late 2027 or early 2028, at which point the constraint of interest rates on gold prices is expected to weaken, and private investor demand may once again support gold prices in conjunction with central bank structural buying. 3. In Goldman Sachs' scenario, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again in March and the final rate of this round is higher, gold prices could reach $4,660 per ounce by the end of 2027. The bank also warned that rising oil prices could increase downward pressure on gold prices through systemic selling; a sharp correction in the stock market could force investors to raise cash due to margin calls and broader deleveraging, thus initially dragging down gold prices. However, Goldman Sachs believes that structural demand from central banks will continue to support gold prices, and private wealth management institutions and other long-term investors may also view gold as a tool to hedge against fiscal sustainability risks.
09:07:02
[Hot News Recap: Fed Officials Advocate Gradual Rate Hikes; Midterm Elections May Change Inflation and Interest Rate Paths] 1. Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday advocated for a moderate and steady pace of rate hikes to address inflation, which remains above target. This marks the first public statement from Fed officials since Democrats regained control of Congress and made progress in state elections. Cleveland Fed President Hamak stated that monetary policy needs to shift to a restrictive stance to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner; she favors more frequent, smaller adjustments to mitigate the impact on households, businesses, and financial markets. 2. Richmond Fed President Barkin also believes that gradual rate hikes are reasonable. He stated that inflation is "too high" and remains high without easing, making the policy implications quite clear. The Fed maintained its target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% last week, despite acknowledging that inflation is higher than expected; the Fed raised rates in September, and the market widely expects another rate hike in December, but the path thereafter remains unclear. 3. The midterm election results may change the trajectory of price pressures. Besides the Democrats regaining control of Congress, voters in many states oppose building data centers, which may reduce demand for equipment and other inputs from tech companies, thus easing price pressures. Evercore ISI stated that approval challenges in large states like Texas will slow AI capital spending, reduce the risk of economic overheating in the next year or two, and may extend the AI investment cycle, reducing the need for further multiple rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. 4. However, Evercore ISI also pointed out that the tightening of AI-related financial conditions slightly tilts the balance towards another Fed rate hike. TD Securities still expects the Fed to raise rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by early next year, but stated that if the election results lead to an end to the Iran war or a cooling of AI investment, further tightening may not be necessary after March. 5. In the market, tech stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the Nasdaq down 11.9% from its record high on October 6, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all experiencing their biggest single-day declines since April 3, 2025. Futures traders are still betting on a rate hike at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting, with a probability of about 68%, down from over 80% on Wednesday. 6. The U.S. jobs report will be released on Friday. The market expects 65,000 new jobs in October, up from 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%. BMO Capital Markets states that unless the jobs data is significantly weak, it is unlikely to disrupt the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike plans; as long as the unemployment rate remains near its current level, the Fed can still determine that the labor market is stable.
08:49:16
[Hot Market Recap: Nasdaq Suffers Largest Single-Day Drop in 19 Months, AI Regulatory Concerns Trigger Sell-Off in Chip Stocks] 1. US stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq plunging 5.52%, its largest single-day drop in 19 months, confirming it has entered a technical correction phase; the S&P 500 fell 4.36%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 3.44%. The total market capitalization of S&P 500 components evaporated by approximately $3 trillion. 2. Following the Democrats' victory in Congress, the market worried about stricter AI regulations, especially rising opposition in some states to new data centers, which could slow down AI infrastructure development. Nvidia plunged more than 9%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeted more than 12%. 3. In terms of individual stocks, Qualcomm fell 9.5% due to weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter smartphone chip sales; Meta fell 4%, and Amazon and Alphabet both fell 2.2%. Data center companies IREN and Applied Digital both fell more than 14%, and CoreWeave fell nearly 10%; AI-related utility and equipment suppliers GE Vernova and Constellation Energy also declined. Tesla and SpaceX also fell, despite Musk's nearly $500 million spending on Republican candidates in the midterm elections. Analysts say this sell-off resembles a "capitulation sell-off" in data center capital expenditure beneficiaries, particularly semiconductor stocks, but the volatility may be excessive. Despite Thursday's sharp decline, the S&P 500 is still up 7.4% year-to-date, and the Nasdaq is still up 4.6%.
08:41:52
[“Blue Tsunami” Impacts AI Transactions: US and Asian Chip Stocks Plunge, Data Center Regulatory Risks Become Focus] (1) Following the Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the US midterm elections, market concerns about stricter regulations on AI and data centers triggered a continuous sell-off in tech stocks. (2) US stocks plummeted on Thursday: the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.5%, the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 6.4%, and the market value evaporated by $2.5 trillion; the S&P 500 component stocks lost about $3 trillion in market value; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%, Nvidia fell 9%, and AMD fell 17%. (3) Data centers and new cloud service providers suffered heavy losses: CoreWeave fell 10%, and its five-year CDS spread hit a record high; Nebius fell 15%, and Applied Digital, Cipher Digital and IREN all fell by more than 14%; the decline spread to related utilities and equipment suppliers. (4) Analysts say that the slowdown in data center construction may become a persistent theme; UBS estimates that about 30% of the new data center capacity expected in the United States in 2028 may be at risk due to the suspension of construction, and the timing of Anthropic's fall IPO may also be affected. (5) Several Democrats publicly criticized data centers: Sanders called for a nationwide suspension of data centers, and Ansari said it should be the top priority for the House Democratic majority; Andrews, Brown, Shapiro and Texas Governor-elect Hinojosa also advocated for restrictions or suspension of approvals. A CNBC poll showed that 56% of voters listed AI and data centers as key factors in their votes, of which 65% voted for Democrats. (6) Asian markets were under pressure: the Nikkei 225 fell below 60,000 points, down 6.5%, facing the risk of a technical bear market; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both fell more than 10% in early trading, dragging down the Kospi by 8.8%, and the exchange once suspended trading for 20 minutes. The Kospi has fallen 46% from its June high. (7) Market sentiment has shifted to panic selling, with the focus shifting from the prospects of AI to the cost of AI; AI remains transformative in the long term, but individual stock pricing faces significant volatility.
08:21:49
[South Korean chip stocks plummet, Kospi plunges 8.8%, market worries Democratic sweep of Congress slows AI development] (1) South Korean chip stocks plummeted as the market grew increasingly worried that a Democratic sweep of Congress in the United States might slow down the AI development boom. (2) On Friday morning, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares both plummeted by more than 10%, dragging down the South Korean Kospi index by 8.8%; the Korea Exchange suspended trading for 20 minutes shortly after opening. (3) Global stock markets suffered a major blow on Thursday, with the Nasdaq 100 index falling 6.4%, wiping out a record $2.3 trillion in market value. (4) This wave of decline dragged the main South Korean stock index below President Lee Jae-myung's 2025 target of 5,000 points; as the AI boom boosted chip manufacturers' profits, Kospi had previously quickly surpassed this target, but after market doubts about the prospects of AI increased, Kospi has plummeted 46% from its June high, and 5,000 points has once again become the focus of the market. (5) Kim Dojoon, CEO of Zian Investment Management, said the market has finally entered a panic selling phase; in today’s market, most market participants would probably be forced to sell.
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