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[US Treasury Yields' "Leap of Faith": Can the AI Productivity Revolution Open Up Room for Interest Rate Cuts?] ⑴ Over the past week, the US Treasury yield curve has fallen across the board to its lowest point this year, with the market pricing in a three-year rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026. This bond rally is difficult to explain simply by January's employment or inflation data—neither of which gave the Fed the green light for easing policies. A more likely explanation is that the market is incorporating expectations of an AI revolution into bond pricing. ⑵ The core logic is that if artificial intelligence triggers a massive boom in labor productivity, then even with strong economic growth, it could produce a structural deflationary effect, creating conditions for interest rate cuts. Kevin Warsh, who will take over as Fed chairman in May, has described AI as "the most productive wave of our lifetime" and believes it will prove to be a "structural anti-inflationary" force, just like the expansion of the internet. ⑶ However, this logic is built on numerous "ifs." A Bank of America survey shows that nearly 40% of global fund managers believe Warsh's appointment will push up US Treasury yields and weaken the dollar. Thomas, head of research at Carlyle Group, warned that neither history nor theory supports the simplistic conclusion that "AI productivity will inevitably lead to low interest rates." During the dot-com boom of the late 1990s, short-term real interest rates actually rose by about 300 basis points.⁴ Thomas pointed out that AI is not a "gift from heaven." The trillions of dollars invested annually in energy-intensive computers are already driving the entire economy. If this investment boom encounters resource constraints, rapid productivity gains cannot counteract high inflation. The Federal Reserve must choose between a "leap of faith" and waiting for solid evidence. Until then, the pressure from AI is no longer just a stock market issue.