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2026-02-20 16:41:43
[GDP and PCE Released Together: Resilience and Cracks Emerge in the US Economy] ⑴ The revised US Q4 GDP figure will be released Friday evening, with the market widely expecting growth to slow to a robust 3.0% from 4.4% in Q3. However, this belated data is compounded by the dual impacts of last year's 43-day government shutdown and the widening trade deficit to a five-month high in December. The Atlanta Fed has already lowered its forecast from 3.6% to 3.0%. ⑵ Beneath the overall growth, structural divergence is intensifying. Economists describe the current situation as a "K-shaped economy": high-income households benefit from the stock market boom and the AI investment frenzy, maintaining strong consumption power; while low-income households struggle with tariff-driven inflation and stagnant wage growth, creating a so-called "affordability crisis." ⑶ Consumer spending growth is expected to slow significantly from 3.5% in Q3. Real disposable income is nearing stagnation, forcing some households to use savings to maintain spending. This year's tax rebates have increased due to tax cuts, which is expected to provide some support for consumption, but a fundamental recovery in purchasing power still requires a decline in inflation. (4) Artificial intelligence investment has become a unique bright spot for economic growth. AI-related investments, including data centers, semiconductors, and software, contributed about one-third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, partially offsetting the drag from tariffs and reduced immigration. Strong capital goods imports also reflect the sustainability of this construction boom. (5) Residential investment remains mired in difficulties. It is expected to contract for the fourth consecutive quarter, with high borrowing costs continuing to suppress the willingness of builders and homebuyers. The contribution of trade and inventory to growth is trending towards neutral, making it difficult to provide additional momentum. (6) The December PCE inflation data, released concurrently with GDP, will be more policy-significant. The market expects core PCE to rise 0.3% month-on-month and remain at a sticky level of 2.9% year-on-year. Federal Reserve officials are still waiting for inflation improvement to materialize in actual data, and since mid-2024, progress in core inflation has almost stalled, making the threshold for a policy shift still high. The combination of slowing growth and sticky inflation is pushing the uncertainty surrounding the path of interest rates to a new high.
