[US Retail Sales Exceed Expectations, High-Income Groups Drive "K-Shaped" Consumption] ⑴ US retail sales rose more than expected in November, driven by a rebound in auto purchases and increased household spending in other areas, indicating solid economic growth in the fourth quarter. ⑵ The US Census Bureau reported Wednesday that retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, with October's figure revised down to a 0.1% decline. Economists had previously predicted a 0.4% increase. ⑶ Consumption was primarily driven by high-income households, while low-income consumers struggled to cope with rising living costs. ⑷ Bank of America Securities noted that its data showed "a significant and persistent gap in spending growth between high and low-income groups in the fourth quarter," a divergence that began in late 2024 and widened throughout last year, with the "K-shaped" pattern being more pronounced in non-essential consumption. ⑸ Economists and policymakers believe that supply shortages are a major cause of housing unaffordability. ⑹ Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, rose 0.4% month-over-month in November, with October's increase revised down to 0.6%. This data is most closely linked to the consumer spending component of GDP. (7) Rapid growth in consumer spending in the third quarter was the main driver of the quarter's annualized economic growth rate of 4.3%. The Atlanta Fed currently projects an annualized GDP growth rate of 5.1% for the fourth quarter.

[US Producer Price Index (PPI) Accelerated in November 2025] ⑴ Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, released after a delay, showed that the PPI rose 0.2% month-over-month in November 2025, accelerating from the 0.1% increase in October, in line with market expectations. ⑵ The core PPI, excluding food and energy, was flat month-over-month, a significant slowdown from the 0.3% increase in October, and lower than the market consensus of a 0.2% increase. ⑶ Year-over-year, the overall producer inflation rate climbed from 2.8% to 3.0%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.7%. ⑷ The core producer inflation rate also rose slightly from 2.9% to 3.0%, similarly higher than the market expectation of 2.7%.

[US Retail Sales Rise 0.6% in November 2025, Exceeding Expectations] ⑴ US retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in November 2025, exceeding market expectations of a 0.4% increase. The previous figure was revised down from 0.0% to a 0.1% decrease. ⑵ Retail sales excluding automobiles rose 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a 0.4% increase. The previous figure was revised down from a 0.4% increase to a 0.2% increase. ⑶ Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline rose 0.4% month-over-month, with the previous figure revised down from a 0.5% increase to a 0.4% increase. ⑷ Retail sales in the control group directly included in GDP rose 0.4% month-over-month, in line with expectations. The previous figure was revised down from a 0.8% increase to a 0.6% increase. ⑸ Year-over-year retail sales data for November, compared to a previous increase of 3.47%. ⑹ Although the overall data largely met expectations, the downward revisions to previous figures made the report appear slightly weak overall. (7) The retail sales report is one of the most direct indicators for the market to assess the health of U.S. consumers and even the overall economic situation, as it measures sales across a wide range of retailers, from automobiles and gas stations to restaurants and online stores. (8) Given that consumer spending accounts for approximately two-thirds of U.S. GDP, this report has a significant impact on growth expectations and interest rate pricing. (9) The market typically pays more attention to the "control group" data, as it excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food service sales, is used directly in GDP calculations, and is often more meaningful than the overall data. (10) Strong retail sales data suggests resilient demand, solid pricing power, and may reduce the urgency for interest rate cuts; weak data raises concerns about consumer fatigue, credit pressures, and the sustainability of economic expansion. (11) This data is usually highly volatile and susceptible to revisions and seasonal factors, but when a trend persists, the market will closely monitor it.