[Moldova's economy reverses its downturn, with the construction industry leading growth] ⑴ Moldova's GDP grew by 1.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, a significant reversal from the 1.2% contraction in the first quarter. ⑵ The expansion of the construction industry has become the core growth driver, with the energy and information and communications industries providing simultaneous support. ⑶ The latest forecast from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development shows that the country's economic growth rate will reach 1.5% in 2025 and is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in 2026. ⑷ The central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.00% this month, providing additional support for economic growth through monetary policy. ⑸ This underdeveloped economy in Europe is continuing to promote the coordinated development of agriculture, remittances and the IT industry through EU support plans.

European Inflation Stickiness Reinforces the ECB's Wait-and-See Stance. ⑴ Preliminary September inflation figures have been released for several Eurozone countries, including Spain, Belgium, France, German states, and Southern European countries. Overall, the data are consistent with the ECB's quarterly forecast framework. ⑵ Market expectations for ECB interest rates are currently showing significant stickiness, with futures pricing continuing to reflect the prospect of the deposit rate remaining unchanged at 2.00%. ⑶ The ECB's latest September economic forecasts significantly raised inflation expectations, with year-on-year growth estimates for the third quarter raised from 1.9% to 2.1%, and for the fourth quarter from 1.8% to 2.0%. ⑷ The upcoming German national data and Wednesday's Eurozone headline inflation data will be key indicators for verifying the accuracy of the ECB's forecasts.

[Option Expiration Triggers Key Forex Market Defenses] ⑴ A large number of foreign exchange options will expire at 10:00 New York time (10:00 Beijing time) on Tuesday, covering key price levels across multiple currency pairs. ⑵ $2.4 billion worth of expiring EUR/USD contracts are concentrated in the 1.1695-1.1700 range, with $2.5 billion facing expiry pressure at the 1.1800 level. ⑶ $1.3 billion worth of expiring USD/JPY contracts are concentrated at the 148.00 level, with $578 million and $570 million expiring at 148.30 and 148.50, respectively. ⑷ $1.5 billion worth of expiring AUD/USD contracts are concentrated in the 0.6595-0.6600 range, with another $531 million expiring at 0.6650. ⑸ $225 million worth of expiring GBP/USD contracts are concentrated at 1.3465 and 1.3480, respectively. 6. EUR/GBP faces $1.3 billion in expiring contracts at 0.8760, and another $237 million at 0.8740. 7. NZD/USD faces $1 billion in expiring contracts at 0.5785, with approximately $1 billion in additional expiring contracts distributed between 0.5860 and 0.5890.