[The UK economy is stuck in an inflationary stalemate, with slim hopes for interest rate cuts] ⑴ UK mortgage approvals rose slightly to 65,400 in July, indicating that slightly lower interest rates have stimulated some demand in the mortgage market, leading to market expectations of further rate cuts before the end of the year. ⑵ However, recent stubborn inflation and a stagnant yet surprisingly resilient economy have dampened these hopes. ⑶ The OECD recently stated that UK inflation is unlikely to fall quickly, meaning that further rate cuts may be a long time coming for homeowners. ⑷ Given the potential for further tax increases in the November budget and concerns about stagnant private and public sector output, residents' willingness to borrow more may be further reduced. ⑸ This week's final second-quarter GDP figures for the UK are expected to provide little new information beyond what is already known, given questions about the Office for National Statistics' data collection capabilities. ⑹ The 0.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in the second quarter is difficult to reconcile with information from many other independent data sources. ⑺ Preliminary data released in August showed that government spending was the main contributor to economic growth, while the private sector struggled, with business investment falling by 4%. 8. Wholesale and retail trade also performed poorly, declining by 0.9%, partially offsetting the first quarter's growth. 9. The pharmaceutical industry performed strongly, suggesting that the sector may have been stockpiling in anticipation of potential tariffs. 10. Given the recent downward revision to UK retail sales data, suggesting that the Office for National Statistics had previously overestimated the performance of the retail sector, the preliminary second-quarter GDP estimate is also expected to face a downward revision.

Iraq's oil pipeline is about to restart, renewing concerns about crude oil supply. (1) An Iraqi oil ministry official stated that the resumption of operations of the Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline in the coming days will increase the country's oil exports to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day. (2) The official emphasized that Iraq's oil production and exports will remain within the OPEC quota of 4.2 million barrels per day. (3) Iraq's representative to OPEC stated that member countries have the right to request an increase in their quotas and pointed out that Iraq has the potential to export more oil after the resumption of pipeline and other planned projects. (4) This move brings additional supply to the global crude oil market, which may partially alleviate concerns about supply tightness caused by geopolitical factors. (5) However, within the overall framework of the OPEC+ production cut agreement, the actual extent of export growth remains to be seen to avoid excessive downward pressure on oil prices.

Power Line Failure Causes Major Blackout in Mexico, Plunging Over 2.2 Million Customers into Darkness (1) Three southeastern Mexican states experienced a massive power outage on the 26th due to a power line failure. (2) Mexico's national power company, the Federal Electricity Commission, stated in a statement that the outage occurred just after 2:00 PM local time on the 26th, caused by a fault in a power line while maintenance workers were working on it. (3) The power outage affected over 2.2 million customers in Yucatán, Campeche, and Quintana Roo. (4) Mexican President Erich Sheinbaum announced later that emergency repairs had restored power to parts of the three states.