[Qatar Says Israel Has No Peace Partners] Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Ansari stated on August 25 that the US sanctions against Iran are unilateral, not UN or multilateral, and that those who decided to impose the sanctions should be questioned. Ansari emphasized that Qatar has always prioritized reaching a diplomatic solution through dialogue, believing it to be the only way out of the regional crisis, and called on all parties to participate in it in good faith. Ansari also called for international pressure to be applied to Israel to respect agreed-upon plans. He pointed out that Israel's activities in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as well as its attacks on Syrian and Lebanese sovereignty, demonstrate that "Israel has no peace partners." Ansari stated that "the ball is now in Israel's court," and if Israel wants to be part of the region and demonstrate its seriousness in seeking a diplomatic solution, it needs to abide by the agreements, and so far, there has been no positive progress in this regard. (CCTV International News)

[Danube Canal Congestion Hinders Ukrainian Grain Exports, Nearly 70 Ships Stuck in Queues] ⑴ Due to a shortage of pilots and priority passage for fuel and other cargo, shipping is congested in the Sulina Canal on the Danube River, with up to 70 ships waiting to enter Ukrainian ports to load grain. Russian attacks have essentially shut down Black Sea ports, forcing Ukrainian grain to be transported through the Danube River ports with limited capacity. ⑵ The competition for the canal, coupled with air raid sirens, has frequently caused port operations to halt, significantly reducing grain export efficiency. Each day of delay incurs up to approximately $7,900 in additional costs, pushing up shipping costs. Analysts warn that if weather deteriorates further, the shipping situation will worsen, with severe weather potentially leading to a short-term canal shutdown of about two days. Currently, only 2-3 ships can pass through Ukrainian ports daily. ⑶ The Danube River channel played a crucial role in external transport in the early stages of the conflict, with historical monthly peaks reaching 2.45 million tons. While current freight volume is still significantly below this peak, it is gradually recovering. Data from Ukraine's state-owned railways shows that grain shipments to Danube ports in August increased 11-fold compared to July. (4) Data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture shows that grain exports from August 1st to 21st totaled 532,000 tons, a significant decrease compared to 1.71 million tons in the same period last year. As a major global grain exporter, the fluctuations in Ukraine's exports could potentially push up international grain prices.

[German 5-Year Bond Yield Highly Correlated with Energy Prices; Model Deviation Suggests Potential for Correction] ⑴ German 5-year bond yields have moved in close tandem with energy prices this week. Since last Friday's close, the yield model based on natural gas and crude oil prices has fallen by approximately 5 basis points, while the actual yield has declined by approximately 5.1 basis points, with almost identical magnitudes. ⑵ The decline in energy prices was mainly driven by multiple positive developments in Persian Gulf shipping. Oman and Iran are reportedly close to reaching an agreement on a permanent passage mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz, the US announced that mines in the strait have been cleared and reopened, and Pakistan continues to advance peace negotiations between the US and Iran. The US policy focus has shifted to increasing shipping traffic rather than launching strikes. ⑶ The model, with Dutch TTF natural gas futures as the main weight, combined with Brent crude oil and the Eurozone economic surprise index, showed a correlation coefficient of 0.965 with the actual 5-year yield over the past two months, indicating that energy costs remain the core variable dominating Eurozone medium-term interest rate pricing. (4) The current model implies a fair yield level approximately 3.8 basis points higher than actual trading levels. This positive deviation may reflect that the market has largely priced in the positive outlook for improved geopolitical conditions. If the downward trend in energy prices recurs, yields will face upward pressure. (5) Close attention needs to be paid to the actual implementation progress of the Hormuz passage agreement. If shipping recovery falls short of expectations or energy supply tightens again, German short- to medium-term bond yields are likely to rise again following energy prices. The current model deviation provides a reference point for judging relative value.