Hawkish stance persists, Brazil's central bank emphasizes long-term anti-inflation stance. ⑴ In the minutes of its September 16-17 meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil stated that the committee will continue to monitor the pace of economic activity, believing it to be a fundamental driver of inflation. ⑵ The Central Bank of Brazil paid particular attention to inflation in the services sector, emphasizing that while recent inflation data have outperformed expectations at the beginning of the year, the inflation outlook remains subject to higher-than-usual uncertainty. ⑶ All committee members expressed concern about the uncertainty surrounding inflation expectations and believed they must be contained. ⑷ In an environment of uncertain inflation expectations, the Central Bank of Brazil believes a longer period of monetary tightening is necessary to effectively address inflation risks. ⑸ At its most recent meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil maintained its benchmark interest rate at 15.00%.

Debt Dispute Sparks Deadlock in Kurdish Oil Export Restart] ⑴ A deal to restart oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish region stalled on Tuesday. ⑵ The deal was delayed after two major oil producers in the region demanded repayment guarantees for their overdue debts. ⑶ The deal was intended to restart approximately 230,000 barrels per day of oil exports, which had been suspended since March 2023. ⑷ Norwegian energy companies DNO and Genel Energy stated they had not yet signed the agreement because they wanted guarantees for overdue payments. ⑸ The Kurdish region owes oil producers approximately $1 billion, of which DNO estimates its overdue receivables at approximately $300 million. ⑹ It is unclear whether the deal can proceed without the participation of these two companies.

[Data Warning: Eurozone Economy Faces Growth Challenges] ⑴ Eurozone business activity data showed that the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.2 in September, marking the ninth consecutive month of expansion. ⑵ Although the PMI remained above the expansion threshold of 50, the index measuring new business fell from 50.3 to the critical 50 mark, raising market concerns about the sustainability of eurozone economic growth. ⑶ Eurozone bond yields remained little changed following the data release, with the benchmark German 10-year government bond yield remaining stable around 2.745%, remaining within its two-week high reached on Monday. ⑷ Market expectations for the European Central Bank's future policy remained stable, with traders anticipating a rate cut of around 12 basis points by June of next year, suggesting a less than 50% probability of another rate cut. ⑸ Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak on Tuesday. Ahead of that speech, investors are eager for clearer guidance amid divisions within the Fed over the future path of interest rates. (6) The Netherlands successfully sold €5 billion of 30-year government bonds on Tuesday, reaching the upper limit of its target range, indicating that the market is satisfied with the current pricing of Dutch government bonds. (7) In recent months, investors have expressed concern about high government debt levels in many countries, leading to a decline in long-term bonds. For example, the yield on Germany's 30-year government bond fell 1.5 basis points to 3.346%.