USD/JPY nears 150, raising alarm bells for a Bank of Japan rate hike. ⑴ The upward momentum of the USD/JPY exchange rate has stalled slightly near the psychologically important 150 level. The failure of the 10-year US Treasury yield to break through 4.20% has provided the yen with some respite. ⑵ The exchange rate's movement is likely driven more by capital flows. Upward momentum may weaken after the 4:00 PM London market close, leading to significant resistance near the 150 level in the short term. ⑶ Despite weak Tokyo CPI data, this is not expected to sway the Bank of Japan's October rate hike. A higher exchange rate, in fact, could prompt action. ⑷ Key support currently lies in the 149.00/15 range, with further support at the 200-day moving average at 148.49. ⑸ Upward resistance is initially at the 150.00 round number. A break above this could lead to a test of the 150.90 to 151.30 area. ⑹ The market is closely watching the interaction between the exchange rate level and the policy intentions of the Bank of Japan. The 150 mark has become the focus of competition between bulls and bears.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: From the daily chart: Bollinger Bands: Middle Band 97.7573, Upper Band 98.6943, Lower Band 96.8203. The current price has firmly established itself above the middle band and is approaching the upper band. The Bollinger Band width has moderately expanded again after previously converging, indicating a rebound in volatility and a strengthening trend. Price Structure: The candlestick chart has been continuously rising, recently reaching a high of 98.5950. Above this lies dynamic resistance at the upper band 98.6943. The historical boundary above this is at 99.50, with a key high at 100.2599. Dynamic support below is at 97.7573 (middle band). If broken, focus on 96.8203 (lower band) and the recent low of 96.2109. MACD: DIFF-0.0240 crossed DEA-0.1563, forming a golden cross below the zero axis. The histogram 0.2646 turned from negative to positive, and the momentum entered the early stage of the shift from short to long. If the price can successfully break through the upper track, the golden cross is expected to return to the zero axis and further strengthen. RSI (14): Reading 57.9729, continuing from above the 50 center, not touching the overbought zone, tends to be moderately bullish; if it breaks above the 60-65 range, it often means that trend funds are increasing their allocation in line with the trend. Summary: The technical side is in a critical state of "no strong retracement, and a breakthrough is imminent." 98.6943 is the primary resistance level, and 98.5950 is the signal level for the final push; support attention is 97.7573/96.8203/96.2109. Before and after the PCE announcement, pay attention to the true and false breakthroughs near the upper track and the subsequent backtest quality.

Fed's Barkin: It is important to note that the Fed currently has little understanding of how inflation and unemployment will evolve