[Global Shipping Heartbeats, Singapore Port Data Sets Records Across the Board] ⑴ Singapore, the world's largest marine bunkering hub, achieved record highs in several operational metrics in 2025, primarily driven by robust global trade activity and fuel demand. ⑵ Specifically, total marine fuel sales in Singapore reached 56.77 million metric tons in 2025, surpassing the previous record of 54.92 million tons in 2024; container throughput climbed to 44.66 million TEUs; and total tonnage of arriving vessels also reached a new high of 3.22 billion gross tons. ⑶ Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil remained strong, with sales increasing for the fifth consecutive year, providing significant support for overall sales growth. ⑷ Meanwhile, to support emissions reduction initiatives, shipowners increased their procurement of alternative fuels, with alternative marine fuel usage rising to 1.95 million metric tons in 2025, a significant increase from 1.35 million tons in 2024. ⑸ Sales of marine biofuel blends and liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased for the third consecutive year, demonstrating a clear trend towards energy transition in the shipping industry. (6) To meet growing demand, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore announced that it will open applications for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering supply licenses from January 14th. (7) From a market perspective, the record-high data from the Port of Singapore is a key barometer for observing the intensity of global physical trade flows and shipping activities, and its fuel structure changes directly reflect the decarbonization process of the shipping industry. (8) In the future, attention should be paid to the sustainability of high-sulfur fuel oil demand growth and the expansion speed of alternative fuel infrastructure such as LNG, which will affect the global fuel supply and demand pattern and the price difference between different grades.

[Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Lead to Divergence Between Global Oil Prices and Middle Eastern Benchmarks] ⑴ Dubai crude, the Middle Eastern benchmark, weakened for the second consecutive trading day on Tuesday, while Oman and Murban crude prices strengthened, indicating a widening price gap between grades within the region. ⑵ The premium of global benchmark Brent crude over Dubai crude rose to its highest level since July last year, with the March contract premium reaching $1.97 per barrel in early trading on Tuesday, mainly supported by geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela. ⑶ In the spot market, the premium of cash Dubai over swap transactions fell by 5 cents to -42 cents per barrel, indicating relatively ample spot supply or weak demand. ⑷ Specific transactions show that a large number of spot transactions between major traders are concentrated in the range of $61.70 to $61.84 per barrel, involving giants such as BP, Glencore, Trafigura, and Vitol, reflecting the current active trading level in the market. (5) According to institutional data, Iran's floating crude oil inventory has reached a record high, equivalent to approximately 50 days of production. This is mainly due to reduced purchases by China due to sanctions and Tehran's efforts to protect its supply from potential military attacks. (6) Global commodity trading giants Vitol and Trafigura have begun negotiations with Asian refiners for the sale of Venezuelan crude oil for March delivery, indicating they are vying for trading opportunities in the world's largest crude oil reserve holder before US energy giants. (7) From a market perspective, geopolitical risk premiums are more directly reflected in the global benchmark (Brent) which is more directly linked to political risk, while the Middle Eastern local benchmark is constrained by actual regional supply and demand and logistical fundamentals. The widening price gap between the two reflects the complex pricing layers of the market. (8) In the future, close attention needs to be paid to the rate of depletion of Iranian floating inventories, the actual export flow of Venezuelan crude oil, and the purchasing dynamics of refineries in major consuming countries. These will be key factors influencing the price difference between the Eastern and Western Hemispheres and the strength of regional benchmarks.

[Grain Depot Shifts, Russian Grain Exports Face "Harvest Troubles"] ⑴ The Russian agricultural consulting firm IKAR has raised its 2025/26 grain export potential forecast from 57.8 million tons to 60.2 million tons, with wheat exports revised upward from 44.1 million tons to 46.5 million tons. ⑵ Despite the upward revision of the total forecast, the agency warned that this export target may not be fully achieved due to two consecutive years of poor harvests caused by severe weather in the main grain-producing regions of the south. ⑶ Current export growth relies heavily on bumper harvests in central Russia and Siberia to compensate for reduced production in the south, but these regions are far from the main export terminals on the Black Sea coast, resulting in high and complex logistics costs. ⑷ The agency's head explicitly pointed out that in the context of low global grain prices, the logistical challenges caused by the decline in the export share of the southern region cast doubt on achieving the full export potential. (5) According to official Russian data, total grain production in the last quarter (2024/25) reached 139.4 million tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year, exceeding the government's revised forecast. The government stated that this would be sufficient to maintain the export volume for this quarter. (6) From a market perspective, the realization of Russia's export potential will depend on the extent to which high inland transportation costs can be covered by increased production, directly impacting its actual supply capacity as the world's largest wheat exporter. (7) Future attention should be paid to changes in Black Sea port logistics efficiency and inland transportation costs. These factors, along with global prices, will jointly determine the final flow of Russian grain exports, thereby affecting the supply and demand balance in the international grain market.