[Houthi Rebels Emphasize They Will Not Stand Idly By] On April 2, local time, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Houthi said in a televised address that unified action against the enemy on all fronts is the correct stance for Islamic countries to counter Israeli conspiracies. He stated that the current situation is part of a larger confrontation that is "inevitable." He emphasized that the Houthis will not stand idly by regarding the US-Israel attacks on Iran, nor will they shift all the burden to others. The Houthis joined the fighting on March 28, launching missiles and drones at Israel multiple times in recent days, including in coordinated operations with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. (CCTV International News)

[Trump Claims He Can Easily Open the Strait of Hormuz, But Oil Market Only Believes in War] ⑴ Trump claimed on Friday that with just a little more time, the Strait of Hormuz could be easily opened, oil could be seized, and a fortune could be made, but he did not reveal any specific operational details. The strait normally handles about 20% of global oil trade. ⑵ The UN Security Council was scheduled to vote on Friday on a draft resolution for at least six months of escort, but the vote has been postponed, and a new date has not been announced. The French and South Korean presidents stated they would cooperate to stabilize the situation in the waterway, but did not specify how. ⑶ A French container ship has successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, becoming the first known Western European-related vessel to pass through the waterway since the outbreak of war. However, the Middle East conflict continues; a drone attack on a Kuwait National Oil Company refinery caused a fire, and the Al-Habshan gas facility in Abu Dhabi has also suspended operations due to a fire. ⑷ Iran is strengthening the defenses of Harqa Island, the country's main crude oil export terminal, handling 85% to 95% of Iran's oil exports. Brent crude oil closed at $109.24 a barrel on Thursday, while the WTI June contract closed at $97.75.

[Labor Exodus Damages Non-Farm Payrolls: The Fed Isn't Focusing on Headlines] ⑴ March's non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, but the labor force participation rate fell from 62.0% to 61.9%, resulting in a decrease of 396,000 in the labor force. This shrinking denominator mechanically lowered the unemployment rate, rather than reflecting a genuine market tightening. ⑵ Some argue that illegal immigration had previously been supporting employment data. With tightening immigration policies and declining inbound numbers, the US only needs about 50,000 to 70,000 new jobs per month to maintain a stable unemployment rate, far below the previous break-even point. ⑶ Market participants question whether the higher participation rate was solely due to the record influx of illegal immigrants, and whether the previous "full employment" was a true reflection of the situation or a distortion of the demographic structure. They also question whether the Fed was only focusing on headline figures in its modeling.