[Oil Prices Rise Slightly, ADP Deficit, Kashkari's Hawkish Stance Leads to Divergence in US Treasury Yields] ⑴ International oil prices rose slightly, boosted by the Middle East mediation process. The US hinted that a temporary solution to the Strait of Hormuz issue might be implemented soon, partially alleviating extreme market concerns about supply disruptions. ⑵ The US Treasury yield curve showed a divergence, with the short end rising and the long end slightly declining. The two-year yield rose to approximately 4.21%, while the ten-year yield fell slightly to 4.62%, with the narrowing spread reflecting the market's repricing of policy paths. ⑶ US private sector employment increased by approximately 44,000 in July according to ADP data, significantly lower than the market expectation of 75,000. This data provides a leading reference for Friday's official non-farm payroll report, with institutions currently predicting an increase of approximately 83,000 jobs in July. ⑷ Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari publicly called for a gradual increase in interest rates, dissenting from last week's decision to keep rates unchanged and favoring an immediate rate hike of 0.25 percentage points. This hawkish stance strengthened the upward momentum of short-term yields. (5) If Friday's non-farm payroll data continues the weak tone of the ADP report, there is room for further decline in long-term bond yields; conversely, if employment unexpectedly strengthens, the market may reprice the probability of a September rate hike, at which point the yield curve will face new pressure to steepen. (6) Geopolitically, although there are signs of progress in negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, whether a final agreement can completely eliminate the risks to passage remains uncertain, and fluctuations in energy prices and inflation expectations will continue to influence bond market sentiment.

Spot gold has just broken through the $4,190.00/ounce mark, and is currently trading at $4,189.33/ounce, up 2.75% on the day; COMEX gold futures are currently trading at $4,249.80/ounce, up 2.34% on the day.

[Tanzania's Sugar Prices Double Out of Control; Hoarding and Import Delays Ignite Zanzibar Shortage Crisis] ⑴ Retail sugar prices in Tanzania's Zanzibar Islands have surged to more than double the official cap, with actual market transactions reaching approximately 7,000 shillings per kilogram, while the government-mandated price is only 3,000 shillings. ⑵ The supply gap is mainly due to shipping delays caused by the Middle East geopolitical situation, coupled with suspected hoarding by some traders, exacerbating the tense atmosphere in the region's spot market. ⑶ Zanzibar relies on imports from India and Brazil for over 90% of its sugar. The local Mahonda Sugar Mill's quarterly production of approximately 5,000 tons is far from meeting demand, and even slight fluctuations in the external supply chain directly impact end-users. ⑷ The wholesale price of a 50-kilogram bag of sugar has risen from approximately 130,000 shillings to between 180,000 and 190,000 shillings. Local retailers facing losses if they adhere to the official price cap are forced to either stop selling or raise prices. (5) Small food and juice vendors have been severely impacted. Some merchants reported difficulty finding supplies, even when they used to purchase 50 kg at a time, forcing them to reduce production and causing operating costs to skyrocket. (6) Faced with the chaotic situation, the Zanzibar Fair Competition Commission has issued a warning, strictly prohibiting price manipulation and maintaining the retail guidance price of 3,000 shillings per kg on Unguja Island and 3,200 shillings per kg on Pemba Island. Violators will be prosecuted. (7) Importers have promised that approximately 1,080 tons of new goods have been released to the market recently, with another 4,000 tons en route, attempting to calm panic. However, local residents generally question whether the shortage is artificially manipulated rather than a genuine supply-demand gap. (8) Zanzibar authorities are actively coordinating with all parties to restore normalcy through a dual approach of continued imports and domestic production, while also urging consumers to obtain receipts to support price controls.