[Sudden Hawkish Cracks Emerge at the Bank of Japan! Probability of an October Rate Hike Soars] ⑴ The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held interest rates steady at 0.5% on the 19th, but two members dissent, arguing for an immediate 25 basis point rate hike, signaling a strengthening of hawkish voices within the bank. ⑵ The central bank unexpectedly announced plans to reduce its holdings of ETFs and J-REITs by 330 billion yen and 5 billion yen annually, respectively, capped at 0.05% of the daily average trading value, signaling a firm commitment to policy normalization. ⑶ Core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) reached 3.3% in August, slightly lower than the previous reading of 3.4%, but still exceeding 3% for 17 consecutive months, indicating continued demand-side pressures pushing up prices. ⑷ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized data dependence and expressed confidence in the economic outlook, stating that the US-Japan trade agreement has reduced external uncertainty and that Trump's tariff rhetoric has not yet had a significant impact on the Japanese economy. ⑸ The LDP presidential election on October 4th has become a key variable. Candidate Sanae Takaichi has publicly opposed interest rate hikes, and her election could delay the normalization of monetary policy. (6) If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again in October, the yen could appreciate rapidly. The central bank needs to weigh the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports. Currently, the yen's depreciation has partially offset the negative impact of US tariffs. (7) The market estimates the probability of an October 30 rate hike to be only 52%, but institutions believe the actual probability is higher. If this happens, it would push the USD/JPY exchange rate towards 145, potentially falling to 140 by the end of the year.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov: US President Trump may have learned about the plan to further pressure Russia when he was in London, but illegal sanctions will not help solve the problem

"Xi Jinping's Selected Discourses on Civil Affairs" Published: The book, "Xi Jinping's Selected Discourses on Civil Affairs," edited by the Party History and Literature Research Institute of the CPC Central Committee, was recently published by the Central Literature Publishing House and distributed nationwide. Civil affairs work is closely linked to people's livelihoods and connects them to their hearts and minds. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has strengthened the Party's leadership over civil affairs work from a strategic and overall perspective, adhering to a people-centered approach. It has strengthened the development of inclusive, fundamental, and comprehensive livelihood projects, addressing the most immediate and practical concerns of the people and promoting the sustained and healthy development of civil affairs. Comrade Xi Jinping's series of important expositions on civil affairs are lofty in purpose, rich in content, and profound in thought. They profoundly illuminate the directional, fundamental, overarching, and strategic issues of civil affairs work, providing fundamental guidance and injecting strong impetus for promoting high-quality development of civil affairs in the new era and new journey. They are of vital significance for deepening reform and innovation in civil affairs work, vigorously promoting the implementation of the national strategy for actively responding to population aging, focusing on improving the level of social assistance, social welfare, social affairs, and social governance, proactively serving the people, doing practical things, and resolving their difficulties, and making due contributions to comprehensively promoting China's development and national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernization. The "Selected Excerpts" are divided into six topics and contain 224 excerpts drawn from over 160 important documents, including reports, speeches, instructions, and comments by Comrade Xi Jinping, from November 2012 to July 2025. Some of these excerpts are published publicly for the first time. (Xinhua News Agency)