[Caixin Futures: Steel Prices Weaken and Iron Ore Valuations Decline] ⑴ Steel: Both macroeconomic expectations and industry drivers have weakened, and the market may show a weak and volatile pattern in the short term as costs decline. In terms of funds, funds continued to flow out of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 10 contracts, with the top 20 long positions in the rebar 10 contract reducing their positions more significantly, while the short positions in the hot-rolled coil 10 contract reduced their positions more significantly. Technically, the rebar 10 contract showed a mixed pattern of increasing positions and falling, decreasing positions and rebounding, and decreasing positions and falling again, and may continue to test the 60-day moving average support in the short term. In terms of valuation, the current profit of steel mills is still acceptable; the price of the rebar 10 contract is already lower than the cost line of the Fubao East China off-peak electricity market, and the spot valuation is slightly high, while the market valuation is neutral. In terms of operation, maintain the strategy of selling on rallies and do not chase the short. ⑵ Iron Ore: Shipments have rebounded and are expected to increase further (mines have a rush to ship at the end of the Australian fiscal year in June). Steel mills are currently purchasing on demand, and port inventories continue to decline slightly. With profits still acceptable, pig iron production is expected to rebound, providing some support to the spot market. Technically, the September contract continued its downward trend with reduced open interest, with support likely around the 770-785 level, a previous area of high trading volume. In terms of funding, both long and short positions among the top 20 holders decreased, with long positions decreasing slightly more. Overall, the iron ore market's "strong reality, weak expectations" pattern is weakening marginally as shipments recover, and the downward shift in valuation is being realized; however, the downside potential is relatively limited until pig iron production declines significantly. (3) Coking Coal: On the real side, production in major producing areas is stable with slight increases, and Mongolian coal clearance remains high; the competition between coking coal and steel is intensifying, market sentiment is cautious, raw material trading activity has weakened, auction failure rates have risen, and prices are mixed. On the expectation side, expectations for supply-guarantee policies are rising amid the disruptions of the US-Iran war. (4) Coking Coal: Driven by profits, independent coking plants maintained high operating rates; pig iron production was also at a high level, resulting in strong rigid demand for coking coal and a tight overall supply-demand balance. The fourth round of coking coal price increases has begun, but whether it will be implemented remains to be seen, and the short-term expectation of a steel-coking price war is strengthening. In terms of valuation, with the market correction, the September contract is trading at a discount to more than the previous round of price increases, gradually showing a valuation advantage, which may limit further price declines. (5) Manganese Silicon: Manganese ore shipments have declined somewhat, port manganese ore inventories continue to increase slightly, and manufacturers' operating rates remain low. The mentality of pressuring for lower manganese ore prices is prominent, cost expectations are weakening, and the overall supply-demand balance remains weak and stable. Technically, the manganese silicon July contract rose and then fell back; continued attention should be paid to the breakout of the 10-day moving average. From a capital perspective, the top 20 long and short positions in the manganese silicon July contract both decreased, with a larger reduction in short positions, indicating insufficient willingness for active buying.

Euronext CEO: I don’t think Euronext and Deutsche Börse will merge anytime soon.

Bank of England's Taylor: Under Scenario B, the current tightening level is already sufficient.