Sydney:12/24 22:26:56

Tokyo:12/24 22:26:56

Hong Kong:12/24 22:26:56

Singapore:12/24 22:26:56

Dubai:12/24 22:26:56

London:12/24 22:26:56

New York:12/24 22:26:56

Top Declining inflation and high interest rates coexist: Consumer confidence is "weak but not collapsing," and the dollar's volatile pattern is unlikely to break.

Top Driven by both the interest rate differential between the US and Japan and the risk of intervention, the USD/JPY pair surged to 162.70, hitting a new multi-decade high.

The pullback in gold prices presents a buying opportunity; institutions are bullish on the long-term outlook and particularly favor mining stocks.

Crude oil trading alert: The resumption of air traffic over the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of easing tensions between the US and Iran have suppressed risk premiums, causing crude oil prices to fall back to around $70 and enter a pricing phase driven by oversupply.

Gold continued its decline, and its downward momentum may accelerate after breaking below $4,000.

A senior Federal Reserve official issued a hawkish statement: Inflation has been raging for five years, and the door to interest rate hikes remains open.


Iran's delaying tactic: avoiding direct nuclear discussions and first securing control of the Straits toll collection rights.

60-day countdown: Nuclear agreement remains unchanged, control of the Taiwan Strait has become the real battleground in the US-Iran power struggle.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz still a "war zone" despite the ceasefire?

Gold Trading Alert: Gold prices plummeted 14% in the second quarter, the worst in 13 years! Under the Fed's hawkish stance, when will gold prices regain their upward momentum?

Popular Markets

Latest News

Market Analysis

Central Bank Rates

Central Bank Current Rate Next Forecast Last (Non-zero) Change (Basis Points) Historical High Historical Low Latest CPI Rate Trend
Federal Reserve

3.5-3.75

2026-06-17

3.75

2026-07-29

-25

2025-10-30

20

1980-03-04

0-0.25

2008-12-27

4.2
European Central Bank

2.4

2026-06-11

2.4

2026-07-23

25

2026-06-11

4.75

2000-10-05

0.00

2016-03-16

3.2
Bank of Japan

1

2026-06-16

1

2026-07-31

25

2026-06-16

9.00

2008-10-31

-0.10

2016-01-29

1.4
Bank of England

3.75

2026-04-30

待预测

-25

2025-12-18

17

1979-11-15

0.1

2020-03-26

2.8
Swiss National Bank

0

2026-06-18

待预测

2026-09-24

-25

2025-06-19

3.5

2000-02-03

-0.75

2015-01-15

0.6
Reserve Bank of Australia

4.35

2026-05-05

4.35

2026-08-11

25

2026-05-05

17.00

1990-01-22

0.75

2019-10-01

4.1
Bank of Canada

2.25

2026-06-10

2.25

2026-07-15

-25

2025-10-29

8.06

1995-02-23

0.25

2009-04-21

3.2
Reserve Bank of New Zealand

2.25

2026-05-27

2.25

2026-07-08

-25

2025-11-26

8.25

2007-07-26

0.25

2020-03-16

3.1

CFTC Positions

ETF Holdings

Commercial Positions
Non-Commercial Positions
Long Position

Today’s News

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2026-07-01Wednesday

10:43:59

Pork-related stocks continued to rise, with Aonong Biotechnology, Jinxinnong, Xinwufeng, and Tianbang Food all hitting their daily limit. Dayu Biotechnology rose by more than 20%, while New Hope, Tangrenshen, and Muyuan Foods followed suit.

10:43:54

[Wash's Sintra Debut Preview: The Fewer Dovish Moves, the Heavier the Echo] 1. This Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will speak at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. This is not a typical academic exchange between central bankers—it's his first major international public appearance as chairman since Warsh removed the Fed's traditional forward guidance. The reduced policy signals available to the market make each of his speeches carry more weight. 2. In Sintra, the market is looking for guidance not in policy statements, but in tone. Traders will be closely watching whether Warsh will continue the hawkish stance of "prioritizing inflation" from the June meeting, or acknowledge potential risks to economic growth and the labor market. These two differences in wording could cause the dollar, Treasury yields, and gold to move in opposite directions. 3. If Warsh maintains a hawkish tone and confirms the possibility of further rate hikes, the dollar will strengthen, yields will remain high, and gold may fall below the support level near $3942. If his rhetoric is balanced, acknowledging a slowdown in growth or a softening labor market, it could weaken expectations of interest rate hikes, pushing the dollar weaker and yields lower, providing more room for a gold rebound. 4. Warsh has clearly stated that the Fed will reduce its external communications going forward. Against this backdrop of concise language, every marginal change in his wording could be amplified and priced in by the market. The Sintra speech will be the market's first real test of the new Fed Chair's communication style—in an environment of scarce signals, the reactions of the foreign exchange, bond, and gold markets may be more sensitive than at any previous central bank forum. --- ### Alternative Titles: 1. **Wash's Sintra Debut: Every Word Costs More in "Silent Mode"** 2. **The Fed Chair's Communication Experiment: When Warsh Speaks Less, the Market Hears More** 3. **The Sintra Test: How Will Warsh's First International Appearance Set the Tone for the Dollar and Gold?** --- If you would like to further adjust the analytical perspective, add historical review, or incorporate more policy scenario simulations, please feel free to suggest further suggestions.

10:43:51

[US Announces $600 Million Lunar Mission Contracts to Advance Lunar Base Construction] NASA announced on June 30 the latest arrangements for its lunar base construction project, stating that it has signed contracts totaling nearly $600 million with three US companies to carry out four new lunar landing missions by the end of 2028. These three companies will be responsible for delivering NASA's scientific payloads to the lunar surface. AeroRobotics Corporation, with a contract worth approximately $298 million, will carry out two delivery missions; Firefly Aerospace, with a contract worth approximately $144 million; and Intuitive Machines, with a contract worth approximately $148 million, will each carry out one delivery mission. According to a NASA press release, each landing mission will carry three scientific payloads, including a stereo camera system to study the effects of landing engine plumes on lunar dust, a laser reflector array for lunar surface positioning and navigation, and an energy transfer spectrometer to monitor the lunar radiation environment. Carrying the same scientific instruments on multiple landers will help assess potential risks during the landing process and build a network of lunar environmental data and location markers. NASA is advancing its lunar base construction project, aiming to enable long-term human habitation on the lunar surface for scientific research and commercial activities, while also laying the foundation for future manned Mars exploration missions. The statement said these new contracts will play a crucial role in the construction of lunar surface infrastructure. (Xinhua)

Today’s Calendar

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Today’s Events

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2026-07-01Wednesday

13:23

PortugalThe European Central Bank held a central banking forum in Sintra.

13:24

IndiaJapanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi arrived in New Delhi for her first official visit to India, which lasted until July 3.

17:00

PortugalEuropean Central Bank Executive Board member Cipolo Nee delivered a speech.

Popular Indicators

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USAFederal Funds Rate Target Upper Limit

3.75%

3.75%

2026-06-18

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time

USASeasonally adjusted changes in non-farm payrolls

17.2Ten thousand

11.5Ten thousand

2026-06-05

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time

USAunemployment rate

4.3%

4.3%

2026-06-05

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time

USAInitial jobless claims

21.5Ten thousand

22.6Ten thousand

2026-06-25

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time

USACore PCE Price Index Annual Rate

3.4%

3.3%

2026-06-25

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time

USAADP Employment Changes

12.2Ten thousand

10.9Ten thousand

2026-06-03

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time

USAAPI Crude Oil Inventory Changes

-607.210,000 barrels

-76.510,000 barrels

2026-07-01

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time

USAEIA Crude Oil Inventory Changes

-608.810,000 barrels

-826.310,000 barrels

2026-06-24

Latest Value

Previous

Release Time