[US Airstrike in Iran's Khuzestan Province Leaves 3 Dead, Several Injured] According to Iranian sources on the 9th, a US airstrike on the outskirts of Ahvaz, the capital of Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province, that morning has resulted in 3 deaths and several injuries. Officials from the Khuzestan provincial security department stated that Iran is investigating and assessing the scale and damage caused by the US airstrike. (CCTV)

[Japanese Bond Market Signals Declining Inflation and Fiscal Confidence, Long-Term Yields Surge to Decade-Long Highs] 1. The Japanese bond market is signaling weakening confidence in the central bank's ability to control inflation, while government spending plans are further exacerbating concerns about fiscal discipline. This week, yields on 10-year and 20-year Japanese government bonds surged to multi-decade highs, reflecting market doubts about Prime Minister Sanae Takashi's commitment to fiscal responsibility and monetary policy normalization. 2. On Wednesday, the spread between 10-year and 2-year Japanese government bond yields widened to 143 basis points, a new high since 2004. This trend reflects both deepening market concerns about long-term inflation and price risks and a weakening expectation of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan in the near term. A senior economist at Daiwa Securities pointed out that the recent steepening of the yield curve is a warning from investors, indicating a significant gap between market assessments of risk and the government's fiscal and monetary policies. 3. Market concerns are intensifying that the economic policy blueprint announced by the government last month may limit the Bank of Japan's ability to tighten monetary policy. Analysts at Mizuho Securities believe that this policy blueprint reinforces the market's view that the Takashi City government sees loose monetary policy as a prerequisite for successful public and private sector investment, therefore the government's support for interest rate hikes is "unlikely to be proactive." 4. On Thursday, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds climbed further to 2.886%, the highest level since September 1996, marking its ninth consecutive trading day of gains, the longest winning streak in 19 years. This month, the yield has risen by a cumulative 20.5 basis points, while the yield on two-year government bonds has only risen by 8.5 basis points, reflecting market concerns that the Bank of Japan will be unable to raise interest rates more quickly. 5. Market participants pointed out that the 10-year government bond yield remains low relative to Japan's inflation level, and with prices expected to rise further, yields face continued upward pressure. The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate to 1% in mid-June, but the swap market indicates that the market expects approximately an 87% probability of the central bank raising rates again by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting.

[Goldman Sachs: Escalating Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Could Significantly Slow Down the Recovery of Middle Eastern Oil Supply] 1. Goldman Sachs released a new research report stating that if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate again, leading to shipping disruptions, the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supply could be significantly slowed. The bank's calculations show that Persian Gulf oil production in June was still about 10.5 million barrels per day lower than pre-war levels. 2. Analysts, including Yulia Zhetkova Griggsby, stated in the report: "Although Middle Eastern oil-producing countries have gradually restarted shut-down wells over the past month, the risk of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could slow the pace of oil production recovery." Goldman Sachs previously estimated that approximately 14.5 million barrels per day of oil production capacity in the Gulf region was shut down in April, representing about 57% of pre-war supply. 3. Goldman Sachs points out that both Persian Gulf oil shipping volumes and oil prices currently face two-way risks. If the 60-day negotiations between the two sides continue, shipping security guarantees are implemented, and the US reissues waivers for Iranian crude oil exports, oil flow in the Persian Gulf is expected to recover by the end of July, at which time the Strait of Hormuz will need to increase its daily throughput by 6.6 million barrels. 4. If negotiations break down and the tanker attacks escalate further, and the US may impose a blockade on Iranian oil, oil flow in the Persian Gulf may decline again. Goldman Sachs previously stated that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted until 2027, Brent crude oil prices could break through $130 per barrel by the end of 2026. 5. Last month, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovered, Goldman Sachs, along with several other investment banks, lowered its oil price forecasts. Analysts at the bank also warned that the crude oil market may once again experience a supply glut.