[Eurozone Retail Sales Sink Again, Consumption Recovery Stumbles] ⑴ Eurozone retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in September, marking the second consecutive month of negative growth and far below market expectations of 0.2%. ⑵ The weak consumption data contrasts sharply with the continuously improving market sentiment; the consumer confidence index rose to its highest level since February in October. ⑶ The year-on-year growth rate remained in the low range of 1.0%, indicating that the overall consumption recovery momentum remains weak. ⑷ Major economies showed significant divergence, with Germany and Spain achieving month-on-month improvement, while France and Italy experienced significant declines. ⑸ Capital Economics points out that lower interest rates and increased consumer credit are creating a favorable environment for real income growth. ⑹ However, slowing job growth and weak consumer willingness to make large purchases will continue to constrain the strength of future consumption rebounds. ⑺ Surveys show that most households believe now is not the right time for large purchases, and this cautious sentiment may continue until the end of the year. ⑻ Economists predict that retail sales will show a moderate upward trend in the coming year, but a strong rebound is unlikely. (9) The transmission of the ECB's policy effects has been hampered, and the consumer side has not fully benefited from the loose monetary environment. (10) It is recommended to pay attention to the November consumer confidence index and employment data, as these two indicators will verify the sustainability of the consumption recovery.

[Asian Diesel Crack Spread Breaks Through $26, Tight Supply Pushes Up Market Premium] ⑴ Asian diesel crack spreads continued their rebound on Thursday, breaking through the $26 per barrel mark, with supply and demand fundamentals continuing to support bullish market sentiment. ⑵ The benchmark 10ppm diesel margin rose to a premium above $26 per barrel, with spot spreads strengthening in tandem with increased buying activity. ⑶ The near-month contract backwardation widened to over $3 per barrel, indicating that the tight spot supply situation is intensifying. ⑷ The jet fuel market structure also strengthened, with the jet fuel discount to diesel narrowing slightly to $0.42 per barrel. ⑸ Singapore middle distillate inventories jumped 8.1% to 9.22 million barrels in the week ending November 5, but the absolute level remains at a historically low range. ⑹ US distillate inventories fell by 643,000 barrels to 111.5 million barrels in the week ending October 31, a smaller decline than the expected 2 million barrel drop. (7) Refinery maintenance continues to shrink, with research firms predicting that offline capacity will fall to 803,000 barrels per day in the week ending November 7, an increase of 189,000 barrels per day in available capacity compared to the previous week. (8) Saudi Arabia significantly lowered its December official selling prices for Asian crude oil, reflecting the current ample supply in the context of increased OPEC+ production. (9) Reliance Industries of India is reselling previously purchased Middle Eastern crude oil, as Western sanctions have led to adjustments in alternatives to Russian crude oil. (10) Russia's oil and gas revenues in October fell 27% year-on-year to $10.93 billion, with weak oil prices and a stronger ruble jointly squeezing fiscal space.

[Supreme Court invokes "major question doctrine," Trump's tariff policy hangs in the balance] ⑴ The U.S. Supreme Court hearing on Wednesday focused on the "major question doctrine," a legal principle that has successfully blocked several of Biden's core policies and is now threatening the legality of Trump's tariffs. ⑵ A majority of the six conservative justices questioned the authority to impose tariffs, with Chief Justice Roberts stating bluntly, "This appears to be a classic case for directly applying the doctrine." ⑶ The focus of the dispute is whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 authorizes the president to impose tariffs. This act does not mention tariffs and has never been used to impose tariffs before. ⑷ Government lawyers argued that the major question doctrine should not apply in foreign policy, but Roberts countered: "The power to impose tariffs on any product, any country, for any period is clearly a major authority." ⑸ Justices Gorsuch and Barrett, along with three liberal justices, expressed skepticism about the legal basis of tariffs, forming a potential majority opposition coalition. ⑹ Legal experts pointed out that if the court abandons the use of the doctrine in this case, it will face accusations of double standards, with a Brown University professor stating bluntly, "This would be a judicial embarrassment." (7) The Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that "there is no explicit congressional authorization to support tariffs of this size," finding that the government's interpretation violated the materiality principle. (8) Senator Klobuchar emphasized: "If the materiality principle applies to student loans, it should apply even more strongly to tariffs that affect trillions of dollars." (9) Although courts typically take months to reach a decision, the government has requested expedited proceedings, and the outlook for tariff policy may become clearer in the coming weeks. (10) Markets need to be wary of the policy vacuum that could result from the rejection of tariffs, which would directly impact global trade flows and supply chain layouts.