[Wall Street Journal Reporter: July Core PCE Month-on-Month Annualized Rate Approaches 3%, Year-on-Year Remains Stable at 3.34%] ⑴ Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos points out that the actual month-on-month increase in core PCE in July was 0.25%, translating to an annualized growth rate of approximately 2.99%, roughly the same as the level in July 2025. ⑵ Year-on-year, core PCE remained at 3.34%, higher than the 2.86% in July 2025, indicating that price levels still have a significant cumulative increase compared to two years ago. ⑶ In terms of trends, the 3-month annualized growth rate of core PCE is 3.0%, and the 6-month annualized growth rate is 3.5%, indicating that the short-term decline in inflation has slowed compared to the medium term. ⑷ This data is basically consistent with the previously released CPI and PPI sub-indices, and there has been no significant deviation from expectations, providing limited incremental information for the Fed's policy path. ⑸ Overall, core inflation remains above 3% annualized, still some distance from the 2% target, and market expectations for high interest rates are unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term.

[Following the PCE data release, the market slightly increased its pricing of a September rate hike probability] ⑴ The US overall PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.6%, while core PCE remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Overall, inflation data did not deviate significantly. ⑵ After the data release, the interest rate futures market slightly increased its pricing of a September rate hike probability from about 36% to 42%, reflecting a slight revision in investors' assessment of the pace of inflation decline. ⑶ Personal income and expenditure data both exceeded expectations, with income increasing by 0.4% month-on-month and expenditure increasing by 0.2%, indicating that household demand maintained a certain degree of resilience, while actual consumption expenditure remained flat month-on-month. ⑷ The final Q2 GDP growth rate was confirmed at 1.5%, but personal consumption expenditure and the price index were both revised upwards, further reinforcing the picture of moderate economic expansion but not completely subsided price pressures. ⑸ Overall, this data combination is not enough to significantly change policy path expectations. The slight increase in the probability of a rate hike remains within the fluctuation range, and the market will wait for the Jackson Hole symposium to provide clearer guidance.

Spot platinum has just broken through the $1850.00/oz mark, last trading at $1849.20/oz, down 0.44% on the day; Nymex platinum futures are last trading at $1865.0/oz, up 0.19% on the day.